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Yara International ASA
Second quarter results
2015
21 July 2015
1
IR – 21 July 2015
 Strong result driven by increased deliveries
 Continued benefit from lower gas prices and stronger US dollar
 Positive start to the new fertilizer season in Europe
 Continued growth for premium fertilizer products in Latin America and Asia
 Industrial deliveries up 9% driven by AdBlue and process chemicals in Europe
Summary second quarter
2
IR – 21 July 2015
10.54
9.82
9.25
7.67 8.04
6.69
5.66
0.23
6.40
8.26
6.18
6.74
2.65
10.59
8.32
10.80
9.00
7.21
8.52
7.97
5.62
2.65
7.03
7.74 7.62
8.17
10.51
9.58
Earnings per share*
*Average number of shares for 2Q 2015: 275.3 million (2Q 2014: 276.5 million).
NOK 37.31 20.67 27.59 13.24
Annual
2012 2013 2014
EPS excluding currency and
special items
2015
3
IR – 21 July 2015
 Tighter domestic market in China triggers urea price rebound
 Western Europe nitrogen fertilizer industry deliveries down 5% on second
quarter last year; lower by 2% for the season
 Brazil fertilizer industry deliveries down 14% on a year earlier; 10% lower
year to date
 Phosphate fertilizer prices similar to last year, stronger upgrading margins
from rock
 Strong demand for value-added fertilizer products
Market development
4
IR – 21 July 2015
Normal deliveries in Europe and USA
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
Domestic production Net imports
-2%
USAWest Europe
Million tons N Million tons N
Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries.
Total nitrogen deliveries based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson and Yara estimates
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
Domestic production Net imports
+5%
5
IR – 21 July 2015
64.7
10.8
54.0
50.6
15.5
66.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Production
Export
Domestic
Domestic
Export
Production
Million tons
Source: BOABC, CFMW
Tighter Chinese domestic urea balance
Jul-May 13/14 Jul-May 14/15
-6%
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15
USD/t
Urea price China (inland proxy price) Urea fob Black Sea
Urea price rebound
Urea price rebound on tighter Chinese
domestic balance
6
IR – 21 July 2015
Brazil: Lower deliveries of commodity products
but increased value-added sales
Brazil 1H fertilizer industry deliveries
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1H 2011 1H 2012 1H 2013 1H 2014 1H 2015
Thousands
Brazil industry
deliveries
Yara Brazil deliveries
-16%
-10%
Kilotons Kilotons
Source: ANDA, Yara
Yara Brazil value-added product 1H deliveries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1H07 1H08 1H09 1H10 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15
YaraMila (Compound NPK) YaraBela (CAN) YaraLiva (CN)
7
IR – 21 July 2015
360
96
110
52
136
374
103
121
49
138
403
123
200
37
142
Asia Brazil Latin
America excl.
Brazil
Africa North
America
Long-term growth in YaraMila and YaraLiva
deliveries outside Europe
Kilotons
YaraMila and YaraLiva deliveries Outside Europe YaraMila and YaraLiva deliveries
Kilotons
2Q152Q142Q13
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15
Outside Europe Europe
CAGR
9%
8
IR – 21 July 2015
 Products designed for foliar
application, seed treatment,
fertigation and fertilizer coating
 Produced in Yara’s Pocklington site
in UK
 Total 2014 contribution of USD 64
million
 Annual capacity of ~ 32 million units
 Planned capacity expansion in
Sumaré, Brazil of 12 million units
YaraVita - global brand name for Yara’s range of
micronutrients
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013
CAGR
11%
2013/2014 2014/2015
Million units
9
IR – 21 July 2015
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and
amortization (EBITDA)
4,310
4,966
4,103 3,591
4,184
4,039
3,318
1,858
3,591
4,227
3,964
4,625
4,794
5,179
3,935
5,196
4,186
3,541
4,149
4,103
3,223
2,363
3,830
4,185
4,002 4,528
5,742
5,055
2012 20142013 2015
NOK
millions
16,970 13,399 16,407 9,973
Annual
EBITDA excluding special
itemsNOK millions
10
IR – 21 July 2015
EBITDA development
429
294
516
Volume & mixEBITDA
2Q14
4,227
5,179
EBITDA
2Q15
Special
items
83
Currency
1,251
OtherPrice/margin
NOK millions
of which
OFD+Galvani
+477 million
of which EU
energy
+588 million
of which
OFD+Galvani
-279 million
11
IR – 21 July 2015
Improved earnings in Downstream and Upstream
1,525
1,572
365 335
2,498
3,133
1,502
1,605
365 335
2,479
2,976
Downstream Industrial Upstream
EBITDA excluding special items
2Q14 2Q15
EBITDA1
(NOK millions)
1) 2Q 2015 result reflects new segment structure as described in note 3 of the financial report.
12
IR – 21 July 2015
Lower natural gas cost in Europe
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
USD/
MMBtu
TTF (1-month lag) Yara Europe
(660)
(891)
(726)
(1,314)
(588)
(50)
(350)
(1,400)
(1,200)
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
NOK
millions
July 2015 estimate*
Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren
*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 13 July 2015
Yara European gas & oil cost
Actual
Change in European energy cost
13
IR – 21 July 2015
Stable European nitrate premium
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15
USD/t
Nitrogen upgrading margins1
(monthly publication prices)
Urea Black sea CFR proxy CAN (46% N)
NH3 CFR (46% N) Urea Egypt CFR proxy
Value
above gas
Value above
ammonia
Nitrate
premium
above urea
Yara EU gas cost *20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15
European nitrate premium2
(quarterly Yara realized)USD/t
2) Yara European realized nitrate prices compared with urea
publication prices with one month time lag. All numbers in USD
per ton of CAN equivalents.
1) All prices in urea equivalents
14
IR – 21 July 2015
Stable commodity phosphate margins and solid
NPK compound premiums
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15
USD/t
NPK premium over blend1
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15
USD/t
Phosphate upgrading margins
DAP, fob USG
Rock, fob NA *1.4
Value above
raw material
NH3, fob Black Sea *0.22
DAP, CIF inland Germany
MOP, CIF inland Germany
Urea, CIF inland Germany
Weighted average global
premium above blend cost
1) Export NPK plants, average grade 19-10-13, net of
transport and handling cost.
Nitrate premium, CIF inland Germany
15
IR – 21 July 2015
Net interest-bearing debt development
10,471
Net debt
Jun 15
Other
142
FX gain
342
Yara dividend
3,396
Investments
net
1,765
Net operating
capital change
186
Dividends
from equity-
accounted
investees
11
Cash earnings*
3,651
Net debt
Mar 15
8,985
* Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges
NOK millions
16
IR – 21 July 2015
 Improved incentives for fertilizer application as grain prices have increased
on supply concerns
 Key crop producing regions continue to benefit from stronger US dollar
 Positive start to the new fertilizer season in Europe; healthy Yara nitrate
order book for third quarter
 Brazil pick-up expected in second half
 Chinese urea production costs and currency remain key for global nitrogen
commodity prices
 Closing of GrowHow UK sale on 31 July
Prospects
Additional information
18
IR – 21 July 2015
Yara 2Q fertilizer sales by market and product
2,183
2,492
954
537
329
2,203
2,462
1,031
683
515
Europe Latin America North America Asia Africa
2Q14 2Q15
1,114
1,360
1,119
1,331
870
407 295
1,141
986
1,240
1,473
1,290
438 327
NPK compounds NPK blends Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CN
Kilotons
19
IR – 21 July 2015
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15
YaraMila and YaraBela deliveries
Kilotons
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15
Yara-produced nitrate deliveries
Kilotons
Yara-produced compound NPK deliveries
Overseas Europe Overseas Europe
20
IR – 21 July 2015
2Q YaraBela volume phasing
Source: International publications, Yara
17%
37%
46%
28%
31%
42%
29%
26%
45%
40%
30% 30%
27%
24%
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2Q 20152Q 2013 2Q 2014
Yara-produced YaraBela deliveries in 2Q
2Q 20122Q 2011
21
IR – 21 July 2015
Continued Industrial volume growth
914
885
864852849
816
866
819
844
792
540
482
511
438456
382
432
364
333346
380
361
339
367364358
328
1Q154Q143Q142Q141Q144Q133Q13
374
2Q13
368
1Q13
343
2Q15
OtherEnvironmental productsIndustrial N-chemicals
Kilotons
22
IR – 21 July 2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Europe North America Rest Of World
AdBlue deliveries
Kilotons
23
IR – 21 July 2015
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Kilotons
Urea Nitrates NPK CN UAN SSP - based fertilizer
20142011 2012 2013 2015
Yara production volume*
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Kilotons
2015
* Including share of equity-accounted investees
Finished fertilizer and industrial products Ammonia
20142011 2012 2013
24
IR – 21 July 2015
0.49
0.20
0.07
-0.04
0.05
0.13
0.38
0.22
0.08
0.01
0.06
0.15
0.32
0.12
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.27
0.12
0.02
0.06
0.17
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Debt/equity ratio
Net interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)
25
IR – 21 July 2015
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Kilotons
Finished fertilizer
Urea Nitrates Compound NPK Other
Yara stocks
Bunge Fertilizer
included from 3Q 2013
26
IR – 21 July 2015
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Index
June 2007=1
14/15 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
Source: Fertilizers Europe, Yara estimate for June
European producers’ nitrate stocks
27
IR – 21 July 2015
4.0
4.4
4.0
2.8
3.7
5.2
4.6
3.9 3.8
2.9 2.72.7 2.8 3.0
4.8
5.7
8.2 8.0
8.0 8.1
6.9
6.1
6.5
6.0 5.7 5.5 5.74.7
6.6
9.2 9.4
10.5
9.8
7.6
7.0
8.1
6.8 6.8 7.0
6.6
7.6
10.7
11.0 11.4 11.3
9.2
7.5
8.5
7.6
7.5 7.2 7.4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global TTF day ahead (Zeebrugge 2009-2012) Yara Europe
Energy cost
USD per MMBtu
Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts/Argus/ICIS Heren
Yearly averages 2009 – 2013, quarterly averages for 2014-15 with forward prices* for 3Q15 and 4Q15.
*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 13 July 2015
28
IR – 21 July 2015
Currency exposure affecting Profit & Loss
At the beginning of the third quarter 2015
1. The US dollar debt generating Profit & Loss exposure was USD 1,500
million
• Kept as hedge of future earnings and to finance inventories in emerging markets
• Around 60% towards BRL with the rest mainly towards other emerging market
currencies and EUR
• The debt level in emerging markets will fluctuate with fertilizer seasons
2. Additional Profit & Loss exposure from internal currency positions vs.
NOK
• Payables mainly CAD (450 million)
• Receivables mainly EUR (150 million)
29
IR – 21 July 2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1/2004 1/2005 1/2006 1/2007 1/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013 1/2014 1/2015
Index
FAO price index
Cereals Price Index Cereals 5 year avg. Food Price Index Food 5 year avg.
Farm economics support fertilizer demand, even
in USD based economies
Source: FAO
30
IR – 21 July 2015
Source: USDA July 2015
For 2015/16, initial estimate calls for balance
between production and consumption
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
2,400
2,450
2,500
2,550
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16F
Million tons
Consumption Production
Grain consumption and production Days of consumption in stocks
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16F
Days
31
IR – 21 July 2015
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
Thousand contracts
Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Non-commercials’ net long position in corn
32
IR – 21 July 2015
Source: CRU urea update June 2015 (March 2015 in brackets) . Consumption data source is IFA.
Year Driving regions
Urea capacity growth relative
to nitrogen capacity
Excluding China Excluding China
2014
Algeria 23%
Iran 20%
1.1% (1.1%)
2015
Algeria 18%
Saudi Arabia 16%
2.6% (2.6%)
2016
USA 29%
Algeria 14%
3.1% (3.3%)
2017
USA 33%
Nigeria 30%
2.3% (2.3%)
2018
Nigeria 29%
Russia 20%
1.6% (1.3%)
Gross annual addition 2014-2018 ~2.1%
Assumed annual closures ~0.5%
Net annual addition 2014-2018 ~1.6%
Trend consumption growth from 2002 2.0%
Projected nitrogen capacity additions outside
China
33
IR – 21 July 2015
Key value drivers – quarterly averages
299
320 315
295
277
358 358 355
337
297
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)/Urea
granular fob Egypt (dotted line, USD/t)
354
309 310 295
273
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
CAN cif Germany (USD/t)
4.6
3.9 3.8
2.9
2.7
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu)
7.6
7.0
8.1
7.0
6.8
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
TTF day ahead (USD/MMBtu)
6.0 6.3
6.9
7.7 7.8
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
NOK/USD exchange rate
485 488
572
413 393
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t)
Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank
34
IR – 21 July 2015
10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages
Source: Average of international publications
0
200
400
600
800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD/t
Urea prilled fob Black Sea/Urea granular fob Egypt
Average prices 2005 - 2015
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD/t
DAP fob US Gulf/MOP granular fob Vancouver
0
100
200
300
400
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD/t
CAN cif Germany
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD/t
Ammonia fob Black Sea

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2015 07-29 - Yara International ASA Q2 2015 Presentation

  • 1. Yara International ASA Second quarter results 2015 21 July 2015
  • 2. 1 IR – 21 July 2015  Strong result driven by increased deliveries  Continued benefit from lower gas prices and stronger US dollar  Positive start to the new fertilizer season in Europe  Continued growth for premium fertilizer products in Latin America and Asia  Industrial deliveries up 9% driven by AdBlue and process chemicals in Europe Summary second quarter
  • 3. 2 IR – 21 July 2015 10.54 9.82 9.25 7.67 8.04 6.69 5.66 0.23 6.40 8.26 6.18 6.74 2.65 10.59 8.32 10.80 9.00 7.21 8.52 7.97 5.62 2.65 7.03 7.74 7.62 8.17 10.51 9.58 Earnings per share* *Average number of shares for 2Q 2015: 275.3 million (2Q 2014: 276.5 million). NOK 37.31 20.67 27.59 13.24 Annual 2012 2013 2014 EPS excluding currency and special items 2015
  • 4. 3 IR – 21 July 2015  Tighter domestic market in China triggers urea price rebound  Western Europe nitrogen fertilizer industry deliveries down 5% on second quarter last year; lower by 2% for the season  Brazil fertilizer industry deliveries down 14% on a year earlier; 10% lower year to date  Phosphate fertilizer prices similar to last year, stronger upgrading margins from rock  Strong demand for value-added fertilizer products Market development
  • 5. 4 IR – 21 July 2015 Normal deliveries in Europe and USA 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 Domestic production Net imports -2% USAWest Europe Million tons N Million tons N Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries. Total nitrogen deliveries based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson and Yara estimates 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 Domestic production Net imports +5%
  • 6. 5 IR – 21 July 2015 64.7 10.8 54.0 50.6 15.5 66.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Production Export Domestic Domestic Export Production Million tons Source: BOABC, CFMW Tighter Chinese domestic urea balance Jul-May 13/14 Jul-May 14/15 -6% 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 USD/t Urea price China (inland proxy price) Urea fob Black Sea Urea price rebound Urea price rebound on tighter Chinese domestic balance
  • 7. 6 IR – 21 July 2015 Brazil: Lower deliveries of commodity products but increased value-added sales Brazil 1H fertilizer industry deliveries 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1H 2011 1H 2012 1H 2013 1H 2014 1H 2015 Thousands Brazil industry deliveries Yara Brazil deliveries -16% -10% Kilotons Kilotons Source: ANDA, Yara Yara Brazil value-added product 1H deliveries 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1H07 1H08 1H09 1H10 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 YaraMila (Compound NPK) YaraBela (CAN) YaraLiva (CN)
  • 8. 7 IR – 21 July 2015 360 96 110 52 136 374 103 121 49 138 403 123 200 37 142 Asia Brazil Latin America excl. Brazil Africa North America Long-term growth in YaraMila and YaraLiva deliveries outside Europe Kilotons YaraMila and YaraLiva deliveries Outside Europe YaraMila and YaraLiva deliveries Kilotons 2Q152Q142Q13 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 Outside Europe Europe CAGR 9%
  • 9. 8 IR – 21 July 2015  Products designed for foliar application, seed treatment, fertigation and fertilizer coating  Produced in Yara’s Pocklington site in UK  Total 2014 contribution of USD 64 million  Annual capacity of ~ 32 million units  Planned capacity expansion in Sumaré, Brazil of 12 million units YaraVita - global brand name for Yara’s range of micronutrients 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 CAGR 11% 2013/2014 2014/2015 Million units
  • 10. 9 IR – 21 July 2015 Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) 4,310 4,966 4,103 3,591 4,184 4,039 3,318 1,858 3,591 4,227 3,964 4,625 4,794 5,179 3,935 5,196 4,186 3,541 4,149 4,103 3,223 2,363 3,830 4,185 4,002 4,528 5,742 5,055 2012 20142013 2015 NOK millions 16,970 13,399 16,407 9,973 Annual EBITDA excluding special itemsNOK millions
  • 11. 10 IR – 21 July 2015 EBITDA development 429 294 516 Volume & mixEBITDA 2Q14 4,227 5,179 EBITDA 2Q15 Special items 83 Currency 1,251 OtherPrice/margin NOK millions of which OFD+Galvani +477 million of which EU energy +588 million of which OFD+Galvani -279 million
  • 12. 11 IR – 21 July 2015 Improved earnings in Downstream and Upstream 1,525 1,572 365 335 2,498 3,133 1,502 1,605 365 335 2,479 2,976 Downstream Industrial Upstream EBITDA excluding special items 2Q14 2Q15 EBITDA1 (NOK millions) 1) 2Q 2015 result reflects new segment structure as described in note 3 of the financial report.
  • 13. 12 IR – 21 July 2015 Lower natural gas cost in Europe 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 USD/ MMBtu TTF (1-month lag) Yara Europe (660) (891) (726) (1,314) (588) (50) (350) (1,400) (1,200) (1,000) (800) (600) (400) (200) 0 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 NOK millions July 2015 estimate* Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren *Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 13 July 2015 Yara European gas & oil cost Actual Change in European energy cost
  • 14. 13 IR – 21 July 2015 Stable European nitrate premium 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 USD/t Nitrogen upgrading margins1 (monthly publication prices) Urea Black sea CFR proxy CAN (46% N) NH3 CFR (46% N) Urea Egypt CFR proxy Value above gas Value above ammonia Nitrate premium above urea Yara EU gas cost *20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 European nitrate premium2 (quarterly Yara realized)USD/t 2) Yara European realized nitrate prices compared with urea publication prices with one month time lag. All numbers in USD per ton of CAN equivalents. 1) All prices in urea equivalents
  • 15. 14 IR – 21 July 2015 Stable commodity phosphate margins and solid NPK compound premiums 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 USD/t NPK premium over blend1 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 USD/t Phosphate upgrading margins DAP, fob USG Rock, fob NA *1.4 Value above raw material NH3, fob Black Sea *0.22 DAP, CIF inland Germany MOP, CIF inland Germany Urea, CIF inland Germany Weighted average global premium above blend cost 1) Export NPK plants, average grade 19-10-13, net of transport and handling cost. Nitrate premium, CIF inland Germany
  • 16. 15 IR – 21 July 2015 Net interest-bearing debt development 10,471 Net debt Jun 15 Other 142 FX gain 342 Yara dividend 3,396 Investments net 1,765 Net operating capital change 186 Dividends from equity- accounted investees 11 Cash earnings* 3,651 Net debt Mar 15 8,985 * Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges NOK millions
  • 17. 16 IR – 21 July 2015  Improved incentives for fertilizer application as grain prices have increased on supply concerns  Key crop producing regions continue to benefit from stronger US dollar  Positive start to the new fertilizer season in Europe; healthy Yara nitrate order book for third quarter  Brazil pick-up expected in second half  Chinese urea production costs and currency remain key for global nitrogen commodity prices  Closing of GrowHow UK sale on 31 July Prospects
  • 19. 18 IR – 21 July 2015 Yara 2Q fertilizer sales by market and product 2,183 2,492 954 537 329 2,203 2,462 1,031 683 515 Europe Latin America North America Asia Africa 2Q14 2Q15 1,114 1,360 1,119 1,331 870 407 295 1,141 986 1,240 1,473 1,290 438 327 NPK compounds NPK blends Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CN Kilotons
  • 20. 19 IR – 21 July 2015 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 YaraMila and YaraBela deliveries Kilotons - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 Yara-produced nitrate deliveries Kilotons Yara-produced compound NPK deliveries Overseas Europe Overseas Europe
  • 21. 20 IR – 21 July 2015 2Q YaraBela volume phasing Source: International publications, Yara 17% 37% 46% 28% 31% 42% 29% 26% 45% 40% 30% 30% 27% 24% 49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2Q 20152Q 2013 2Q 2014 Yara-produced YaraBela deliveries in 2Q 2Q 20122Q 2011
  • 22. 21 IR – 21 July 2015 Continued Industrial volume growth 914 885 864852849 816 866 819 844 792 540 482 511 438456 382 432 364 333346 380 361 339 367364358 328 1Q154Q143Q142Q141Q144Q133Q13 374 2Q13 368 1Q13 343 2Q15 OtherEnvironmental productsIndustrial N-chemicals Kilotons
  • 23. 22 IR – 21 July 2015 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Europe North America Rest Of World AdBlue deliveries Kilotons
  • 24. 23 IR – 21 July 2015 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Kilotons Urea Nitrates NPK CN UAN SSP - based fertilizer 20142011 2012 2013 2015 Yara production volume* 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Kilotons 2015 * Including share of equity-accounted investees Finished fertilizer and industrial products Ammonia 20142011 2012 2013
  • 25. 24 IR – 21 July 2015 0.49 0.20 0.07 -0.04 0.05 0.13 0.38 0.22 0.08 0.01 0.06 0.15 0.32 0.12 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.27 0.12 0.02 0.06 0.17 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Debt/equity ratio Net interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)
  • 26. 25 IR – 21 July 2015 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Kilotons Finished fertilizer Urea Nitrates Compound NPK Other Yara stocks Bunge Fertilizer included from 3Q 2013
  • 27. 26 IR – 21 July 2015 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Index June 2007=1 14/15 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Source: Fertilizers Europe, Yara estimate for June European producers’ nitrate stocks
  • 28. 27 IR – 21 July 2015 4.0 4.4 4.0 2.8 3.7 5.2 4.6 3.9 3.8 2.9 2.72.7 2.8 3.0 4.8 5.7 8.2 8.0 8.0 8.1 6.9 6.1 6.5 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.74.7 6.6 9.2 9.4 10.5 9.8 7.6 7.0 8.1 6.8 6.8 7.0 6.6 7.6 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.3 9.2 7.5 8.5 7.6 7.5 7.2 7.4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global TTF day ahead (Zeebrugge 2009-2012) Yara Europe Energy cost USD per MMBtu Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts/Argus/ICIS Heren Yearly averages 2009 – 2013, quarterly averages for 2014-15 with forward prices* for 3Q15 and 4Q15. *Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 13 July 2015
  • 29. 28 IR – 21 July 2015 Currency exposure affecting Profit & Loss At the beginning of the third quarter 2015 1. The US dollar debt generating Profit & Loss exposure was USD 1,500 million • Kept as hedge of future earnings and to finance inventories in emerging markets • Around 60% towards BRL with the rest mainly towards other emerging market currencies and EUR • The debt level in emerging markets will fluctuate with fertilizer seasons 2. Additional Profit & Loss exposure from internal currency positions vs. NOK • Payables mainly CAD (450 million) • Receivables mainly EUR (150 million)
  • 30. 29 IR – 21 July 2015 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1/2004 1/2005 1/2006 1/2007 1/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013 1/2014 1/2015 Index FAO price index Cereals Price Index Cereals 5 year avg. Food Price Index Food 5 year avg. Farm economics support fertilizer demand, even in USD based economies Source: FAO
  • 31. 30 IR – 21 July 2015 Source: USDA July 2015 For 2015/16, initial estimate calls for balance between production and consumption 1,950 2,000 2,050 2,100 2,150 2,200 2,250 2,300 2,350 2,400 2,450 2,500 2,550 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16F Million tons Consumption Production Grain consumption and production Days of consumption in stocks 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16F Days
  • 32. 31 IR – 21 July 2015 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Thousand contracts Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission Non-commercials’ net long position in corn
  • 33. 32 IR – 21 July 2015 Source: CRU urea update June 2015 (March 2015 in brackets) . Consumption data source is IFA. Year Driving regions Urea capacity growth relative to nitrogen capacity Excluding China Excluding China 2014 Algeria 23% Iran 20% 1.1% (1.1%) 2015 Algeria 18% Saudi Arabia 16% 2.6% (2.6%) 2016 USA 29% Algeria 14% 3.1% (3.3%) 2017 USA 33% Nigeria 30% 2.3% (2.3%) 2018 Nigeria 29% Russia 20% 1.6% (1.3%) Gross annual addition 2014-2018 ~2.1% Assumed annual closures ~0.5% Net annual addition 2014-2018 ~1.6% Trend consumption growth from 2002 2.0% Projected nitrogen capacity additions outside China
  • 34. 33 IR – 21 July 2015 Key value drivers – quarterly averages 299 320 315 295 277 358 358 355 337 297 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)/Urea granular fob Egypt (dotted line, USD/t) 354 309 310 295 273 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 CAN cif Germany (USD/t) 4.6 3.9 3.8 2.9 2.7 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu) 7.6 7.0 8.1 7.0 6.8 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 TTF day ahead (USD/MMBtu) 6.0 6.3 6.9 7.7 7.8 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 NOK/USD exchange rate 485 488 572 413 393 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t) Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank
  • 35. 34 IR – 21 July 2015 10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages Source: Average of international publications 0 200 400 600 800 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 USD/t Urea prilled fob Black Sea/Urea granular fob Egypt Average prices 2005 - 2015 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 USD/t DAP fob US Gulf/MOP granular fob Vancouver 0 100 200 300 400 500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 USD/t CAN cif Germany 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 USD/t Ammonia fob Black Sea