Tolan is Professor at the University of Virginia in the Curry School of Education and the Department of Psychiatry and Neurobehavioral Sciences in the School of Medicine. He is director of Youth-Nex: The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development. Wrap-Up Panel - This panel kicked off the final discussion of the conference's two day dialogue. Panelists suggested directions for public policy to help promote physical activity, health and well-being in children and adolescents.

1. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
PYD Approach
To Development Into the Third Decade of Life
Patrick Tolan Ph.D.
University of Virginia, Youth-Nex Center
October 23, 2012

2. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
YOUTH-NEX Mission
• Promote Healthy/Effective Youth
Development
• Enhance Potential of Youth as Healthy
Productive Citizens
• Reduce Developmental Risk
– Through Focused Research, Training
and Service

3. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Transition to Adult Status & Roles
(Outcomes)
• Key Functional Outcomes (Education,
Marriage, Parenting, Work)
• Key Social Roles (Community Involvement,
Ownership, Conventional Roles)
• Key Self-Definition Changes
• Behavioral Continuity
Horney, J., Tolan, P.H., & Weisburd, D. (in press). Contextual Influences. In R. Loeber
& D. Farrington (Eds.), From Juvenile Delinquency to Adult Crime: Criminal
Careers, Justice Policy and Prevention. Oxford University Press.

4. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Transition or Further Trajectory?
• Past Predicts But Not Well
• Enter At Different Age With Different Supports,
Possibilities
• Different Opportunities
• For Many Transition is Transitional
• Co-Occurring Development of Family, Friends, Society
All are Same (Transition), All are Similar to a Subgroup
(Variations), All are Unalike (Individual Variations)

5. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Transition or Further Trajectory?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Genetic/Inherited Propensities
Gene Environment Correlation, Interactions, etc.
Assortative Mating, Luck of the Draw
Access to Social Resources
Exposure to Social Risks
Access to Family and Community Support, Role
Mattering

6. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development

7. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Community
Community
Neighborhood
Neighborhood
Family
Family
Child
Child
Multiple Influences
Interacting Over
Development

8. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Chicago Youth Development Study
Patrick H. Tolan, Deborah Gorman-Smith,
David B. Henry, Michael Schoeny,
Susan Scrimshaw, Co-PI, Ethnography
Funded by NIMH, NSF, NICHD, CDC-P and W.T. Grant Foundation

9. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
SAMPLE
•
341 African American and Hispanic adolescent males (148 African
American, 193 Latino
•
Recruited from 17 Chicago public schools
•
high poverty, high crime communities
•
Half of the sample were selected because they had already displayed
above average for community (95th% for US) levels of aggression
•
Mean age was 12.31 at the beginning of the study (range 10-15 years),
first 4 waves annual
•
Seven Waves over 17+ years

10. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
How Adolescent Trajectories Can Relate to
Early Adolescent Functioning

11. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Delinquency Clusters/Trajectories
Based on 4 annual waves of data from Self-Report of Delinquency
►
►
►
►
Non-offenders: those with no or minimal aggression, but no delinquent
behavior (24.3%).
Chronic-minor offenders: those consistently involved in minor
offenses over each of the four waves (34.4%).
Escalators: those starting delinquent involvement at a later wave and
escalate to serious offending (frequent & violent) (13.5%).
Serious-Chronic: involved in serious and frequent (including violent)
offending at every wave (27.4%).

12. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Delinquency Trajectories Distribution
Non-Delinquent
Chronic Minor
Escalators
Serious, Chronic, Violent

13. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Deceased?
10
8
Percent
6
4
2
0
Minimal
Chronic Minor
-2
ns for any comparison
Escalator
Serious, Chronic,
Violent

14. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
High School Graduate?
100
90
80
Percent
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Minimal
Chronic Minor
χ2(3,N=178)=11.70, p < .01
Escalator
SCV < Others
Serious, Chronic,
Violent

15. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
In a Stable Relationship?
70
60
Percent
50
40
30
20
10
0
Minimal
Chronic Minor
χ2(3,N=178)=2.35, ns
Escalator
Serious, Chronic,
Violent

16. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Father by Age 25?
90
80
70
Percent
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Minimal
Chronic Minor
Escalator
χ2(3,N=178)=2.78, ns, But, Escalators < Others
Serious, Chronic,
Violent

17. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Employed?
100
90
80
Percent
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Minimal
Chronic Minor
Escalator
Serious, Chronic,
Violent
χ2(3,N=178)=4.41, ns overall But SCV < Minimal & CM

18. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Self Report Crime (Serousness Weighted Frequency)
3
Average Level
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Minimal
Chronic Minor
Escalator
Serious, Chronic,
Violent
F(3,172)=4.66, p < .01 Escalators and SCV > Minimal
and Chronic Minor

19. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Neighborhood Effects on Trajectory
Relation to Functioning
as Young Adult

20. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
• Community Structural Characteristics:
characteristics that reflect the economic
and political/civic viability of the
community
• Neighborhood Social Organization:
social processes or organization for
support, regulation, aid

21. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Effects for Logistic Regression of Neighborhood
Social Organization and Adolescent Trajectories
on Young Adult Functioning
• Community Structural Characteristics is not a main effect
• Neighborhood Social Organization is not main effect in
multivariate prediction model, controlling for Structural
Characteristics
• Primary Finding is interaction of neighborhood with trajectories
for some outcomes

22. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
1
2
3
4
Non-delinquent (ND)
Chronic Minor (CM)
Serious, Chronic, Violent (SCV)
Escalators (E)
0
Weighted Frequency Level
5
Crimes Committed
-2
-1
0
1
Neighborhood Social Organization (W1-4)
SCV vs ND, B = 0.60, χ2(1, N=208) = 5.24, p < .05
2

23. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
5
1
2
3
4
Non-delinquent (ND)
Chronic Minor (CM)
Serious, Chronic, Violent (SCV)
Escalators (E)
0
Odds of a Stable Relationship (W7 Report)
Stable Relationship
-2
-1
0
1
2
Neighborhood Social Organization (W1-4)
Slope:
SCV vs ND, B = -0.87, χ2(1, N=208) = 3.80, p < .10

24. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Simplified Presentation of Trajectories on Crime by Neighborhood
More Criminal
Better
Organization
Intercept: SCV vs ND, B = 0.85, χ2(1, N=208) = 11.29, p < .01
Slope:
SCV vs ND, B = 0.60, χ2(1, N=208) = 5.24, p < .05

25. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Applying a PYD/Youth as Manager of
Resources Approach

26. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Moderated Model – Conceptual Diagram
*All moderators inter-correlated (arrows not shown in diagram), Control for ethnicity

27. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Measures – Outcomes and Stressful Life Events
•
Outcome (Waves 4 and 5 ages 16-19)
•
•
•
•
•
School Attachment
Endorsement of Prosocial/Responsible/Optimism Values
Depressive symptoms
Externalizing behaviors
Stressful Life Events – Average numbers across types (wave 2)
1.
2.
3.
4.
Health-related
Economic-related
Loss
Exposure to crime and violence

28. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Moderated Model - Results
School
Attachment
Prosocial
Values
CBC
Externalizing
Depression
Age
-0.033*
-0.003
-0.307
-0.068
African American
0.109*
0.045
-2.542
-0.842
Baseline Aggression
-0.004
0.001
0.096
-0.027
Stress
Coping
-0.004
-0.003
-0.007
0.050
1.134*
0.506
0.910*
0.105
Family Functioning
-0.016
0.019
0.184
0.089
Prosocial Activities
0.062*
0.090*
-0.567
-0.367
Stress*Coping
-0.074*
-0.132*
0.572
-0.202*
Stress*Family Functioning
-0.011
-0.023
0.666
0.506
Stress*Activities
0.028
0.049
-0.125
-0.002
Measure

29. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Effects Moderated by Coping Effectiveness
Coping and School Attachment

30. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
Effects Moderated by Coping Effectiveness
Coping and Prosocial Values

31. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
YOUTH-NEX
3 Major Tasks/Areas of Study for PYD
and Youth Development
Conference on PYD & Intervention Evaluation
Youth-Nex Center, University of Virginia
April 2, 2012

32. The U.Va. Center to Promote Effective Youth Development
To Map Youth Development from
PYD Approach
1. Identify Functional and Process Outcomes (Consensus)
2. Methodology for Multitudinal Programs (Development)
3. Formulate and Test Theories of Transition vs. Subgroup
Variation
a. Dynamic-Systems Theory
b. How Local/Ecological
GOAL: TO PRODUCE YOUTH AS CAPABLE APPROACH
TO DEVELOPMENT INTO THIRD DECADE OF LIFE