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Advanced Political Analysis
   through “Big Data”
Z DATA’S AGILE ANALYSIS – THE “BIG DATA STACK”

• How we leverage the “Big Data” stack?
    – Technology
        • Don’t back your problem into available technologies, leave your toolset open.
        • Organically grow new skillsets, hire the right individuals
    – Development
        • Be agile in your approach
        • Comparative analysis both using new mathematical methods and open source
          technologies
    – Embrace the shift into a data driven world
        • Empower your Engineering and Science team to be creative
        • Let the data lead your direction
        • Use new data types previously unavailable to drive insights


“Associating structured and unstructured data at relevant points is
where the most value is gained and where the highest level of
challenge is presented.” – Ryan Abo PHD – Z Data Inc.
ANALYZING THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE


          • Location based Google
            Search and Twitter mentions
Phase 1   • Word pair mentions


          • Facebook and Twitter
            Sentiment and Geospatial
Phase 2     Analysis
UNSTRUCTURED AND STRUCTURED DATA
       COMPLEMENTING YOUR TECHNOLOGIES


Structured Data
•   Standard Datawarehouse – finance, sales
•   GeoSpatial – locations, places
•   Technologies – Greenplum, Netezza, Teradata




Unstructured Data
• Textual Objects - Social Media, Blogs, forums
• Bitmap Objects – images, video, audio
• Technologies – Hadoop, Cassandra, Solr, NoSql
Identifying Unstructured Data Sources
Objective: Identify and leverage social media outlets to better predict the overall
sentiment across political candidates.

 Facebook

                              Twitter
- User Likes and Favorites
- Article/Video/Link Shares                             Google / You Tube
                              Tweet Characteristics
- Views
                              - Length
- Comments                                              - Blogs
                              - Language Model
- Location / Geospatial                                 - Comments
                              - Symantics
                                                        - Search Statistics
                              - Emoticons
                                                        - Likes vs Dislikes
                              - Location / Geospatial
                                                        - Shares / Views /
                                                        Comments
SEARCH, MENTION AND WORD PAIR ANALYSIS


Search Engine Data

•   Number of Searches for a candidate or
    political party
•   Word pair / combination analysis


Why should we care?
• Determine the most successful candidate
  online
• Effectiveness of campaigns and conversion
  to online competitive content
ADVANCED SENTIMENT ANALYSIS


What is this sentiment they speak of?

•   Unstructured Text Data

•   Using computational linguistics to
    accurately determine the attitude of a
    writer with respect to a topic.

Why should we care?

•   Use “Opinion Mining” to predict political
    bias
Relational and Unstructured
                              Analytics / BI




                ELT
Customer Data
Agile Analysis - Mathematical Methods

 Prediction and Machine
 Learning
     -Unigram and Bigram
     Features
     -Bayesian Probability
     -Maximum Entropy
     -Distant Supervision
     -Support Vector
     Machines
UnStructured Analysis -

                                                                   Naïve Bayes classifier
                                                                  100%
                                                                   80%
                                                                                               ACURACY
                                                                   60%
                                                                                               PECISION

#obama           #Kardashian
                                                                   40%                         RECALL

#iran            #bieber                                           20%
#biglove         #romney
                                       #obama                       0%
#palin           #healthcare
                                       #iran                                     NAÏVE BAYES
#stimulus        #nexttopmodel
#bigdata         #teaparty
                                       #romney
                                       #palin
                                       #stimulus
                                       #teaparty
Erica – Wow I love cookies in the
morning, check out my new batch       Daria – #Romney        Political Classification
                                      speech was horrible    Unstructured + Structured
Daria – #Romney speech was horrible   that guy knows
                                                                    Political Relevance
that guy knows nothing                nothing
                                                                  100%
                                                                   80%
                                                                                               ACURACY
                                                                   60%
                                                                                               PECISION
                                                                   40%                         RECALL

                                                                   20%
                                                                    0%
                                                                                 NAÏVE BAYES
Positive                       Neutral                                     Negative
                                            Education                          Education                                      Education


                                            Economy                            Economy                                        Economy


                                            Foreign                            Foreign                                        Foreign
                                            Policy                             Policy                                         Policy
                                            Health Care                        Health Care                                    Health Care
 Mitt Romney
 Republican Primary


FILTER BY:
                                                                           Orange County (January 2011 – May 2011)
                                                                      10
                                                                      9
                                                                      8
                                                                      7
                                                                      6
                                                                      5
Facebook                                                              4
                                                                                                                              Sentiment
                                                                      3
Twitter                                                               2                                                       Actuals
                                                                      1
Google                                                                0




                                                                           Romney




                                                                                                                   Santorum
                                                                                             Huntsman


                                                                                                        Gingrich
                                                                                    Paul
                      Democratic Vote          Democratic Sentiment

                      Republican Vote          Republican Sentiment
Political Opinion Mining, Sentiment Analysis and Technology

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Political Opinion Mining, Sentiment Analysis and Technology

  • 1. Advanced Political Analysis through “Big Data”
  • 2. Z DATA’S AGILE ANALYSIS – THE “BIG DATA STACK” • How we leverage the “Big Data” stack? – Technology • Don’t back your problem into available technologies, leave your toolset open. • Organically grow new skillsets, hire the right individuals – Development • Be agile in your approach • Comparative analysis both using new mathematical methods and open source technologies – Embrace the shift into a data driven world • Empower your Engineering and Science team to be creative • Let the data lead your direction • Use new data types previously unavailable to drive insights “Associating structured and unstructured data at relevant points is where the most value is gained and where the highest level of challenge is presented.” – Ryan Abo PHD – Z Data Inc.
  • 3. ANALYZING THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE • Location based Google Search and Twitter mentions Phase 1 • Word pair mentions • Facebook and Twitter Sentiment and Geospatial Phase 2 Analysis
  • 4. UNSTRUCTURED AND STRUCTURED DATA COMPLEMENTING YOUR TECHNOLOGIES Structured Data • Standard Datawarehouse – finance, sales • GeoSpatial – locations, places • Technologies – Greenplum, Netezza, Teradata Unstructured Data • Textual Objects - Social Media, Blogs, forums • Bitmap Objects – images, video, audio • Technologies – Hadoop, Cassandra, Solr, NoSql
  • 5. Identifying Unstructured Data Sources Objective: Identify and leverage social media outlets to better predict the overall sentiment across political candidates. Facebook Twitter - User Likes and Favorites - Article/Video/Link Shares Google / You Tube Tweet Characteristics - Views - Length - Comments - Blogs - Language Model - Location / Geospatial - Comments - Symantics - Search Statistics - Emoticons - Likes vs Dislikes - Location / Geospatial - Shares / Views / Comments
  • 6. SEARCH, MENTION AND WORD PAIR ANALYSIS Search Engine Data • Number of Searches for a candidate or political party • Word pair / combination analysis Why should we care? • Determine the most successful candidate online • Effectiveness of campaigns and conversion to online competitive content
  • 7. ADVANCED SENTIMENT ANALYSIS What is this sentiment they speak of? • Unstructured Text Data • Using computational linguistics to accurately determine the attitude of a writer with respect to a topic. Why should we care? • Use “Opinion Mining” to predict political bias
  • 8. Relational and Unstructured Analytics / BI ELT Customer Data
  • 9. Agile Analysis - Mathematical Methods Prediction and Machine Learning -Unigram and Bigram Features -Bayesian Probability -Maximum Entropy -Distant Supervision -Support Vector Machines
  • 10. UnStructured Analysis - Naïve Bayes classifier 100% 80% ACURACY 60% PECISION #obama #Kardashian 40% RECALL #iran #bieber 20% #biglove #romney #obama 0% #palin #healthcare #iran NAÏVE BAYES #stimulus #nexttopmodel #bigdata #teaparty #romney #palin #stimulus #teaparty Erica – Wow I love cookies in the morning, check out my new batch Daria – #Romney Political Classification speech was horrible Unstructured + Structured Daria – #Romney speech was horrible that guy knows Political Relevance that guy knows nothing nothing 100% 80% ACURACY 60% PECISION 40% RECALL 20% 0% NAÏVE BAYES
  • 11. Positive Neutral Negative Education Education Education Economy Economy Economy Foreign Foreign Foreign Policy Policy Policy Health Care Health Care Health Care Mitt Romney Republican Primary FILTER BY: Orange County (January 2011 – May 2011) 10 9 8 7 6 5 Facebook 4 Sentiment 3 Twitter 2 Actuals 1 Google 0 Romney Santorum Huntsman Gingrich Paul Democratic Vote Democratic Sentiment Republican Vote Republican Sentiment