An analysis of failed predictions and what has changed over the past few years.

1. (Not) Predicting What's Next(Not) Predicting What's Next
Zeh FernandoZeh Fernando
FirstbornFirstborn
August 2013August 2013

2. First big mistake:First big mistake:
Knowing everythingKnowing everything

3. “Technology changes quickly;
People's minds change slowly”
– Bret Victor, “The Future of Programming”” - http://vimeo.com/71278954

4. Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHEIOgONq6A

5. Source: http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/1995/02/26/the-internet-bah.html
– Cliff Stoll, “The Internet? Bah!” (February 1995)
“No online database will replace your daily newspaper”
“Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab,
predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers
straight over the Intenet. Uh, sure”
“The network is missing a most essential ingredient of
capitalism: salespeople.”

6. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon_Snake_Oil
“Now, whenever I think I know what's happening, I
temper my thoughts: Might be wrong, Cliff...”

7. Source: KPCB Internet Trends 2013, slide 55 (http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2013)

8. Source: “What a difference a decade makes” (http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/what-a-difference-a-decade-makes-barrons-proclaims-amazon-best-retailer/15389)
“Once Wal-Mart decides to go after Amazon, there's no
contest”
“[Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos] is a middleman, and he will
likely be outflanked by companies that sell their wares
directly to consumers”
“Books can be printed out on traditional computer
printers”

9. The reality:The reality:
Amazon vs E-Commerce vs Retail SalesAmazon vs E-Commerce vs Retail Sales
Source: Business Insider (http://www.businessinsider.com/charts-of-the-week-emails-reign-is-over-social-networking-is-the-new-king-2010-4?op=1)

10. Modern smartphonesModern smartphones
iPhone first introduced in June 2007
(6 years ago)

11. “There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get
any significant market share. No chance.”
Source: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2007-04-29-ballmer-ceo-forum-usat_N.htm
– Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft (April 2007)

12. “Try typing a web key on a touchscreen on an
Apple iPhone, that's a real challenge. You cannot
see what you type.”
Source: http://windowsphonethoughts.com/news/show/23449/rim-ceo-blasts-apple-and-windows-mobile-devices.html
– Mike Lazaridis, CEO, RIM (November 2007)

13. The reality:The reality:
20102010 20112011 20122012 20132013
00
1010
2020
3030
4040
5050
6060
GoogleGoogle AppleApple RIMRIM MicrosoftMicrosoft
Smartphone Market Penetration in US, %Smartphone Market Penetration in US, %
Source: ComScore (http://www.fiercemobilecontent.com/pages/monthly-smartphone-ownership-figures-based-surveys-conducted-comscore)

14. The reality:The reality:
Smartphone Market Penetration Worldwide, in %Smartphone Market Penetration Worldwide, in %
Source: Gartner (http://www.statista.com/statistics/266136/global-market-share-held-by-smartphone-operating-systems/)
20092009 20102010 20112011 20122012 20132013
00
1010
2020
3030
4040
5050
6060
7070
8080
9090
GoogleGoogle AppleApple MicrosoftMicrosoft RIMRIM NokiaNokia

15. Modern tabletsModern tablets
iPad first introduced in April 2010
(3 years ago)

16. “A guy tried to take notes on one in a meeting with
me yesterday. That was fun. The meeting didn't go
real fast.”
Source: http://www.pcworld.com/article/198038/Ballmer_Bites_Back_Disses_the_iPad.html
– Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft (June 2010)
“I think people are going to be using PCs in
greater and greater numbers for many years to
come”

17. The reality:The reality:
Tablet/PC Yearly Shipments Worldwide, in millionsTablet/PC Yearly Shipments Worldwide, in millions
Source: IDC (http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24129713)
20102010 20112011 20122012 2013*2013* 2014*2014* 2015*2015* 2016*2016*
00
5050
100100
150150
200200
250250
300300
350350
400400
TabletTablet Portable PCPortable PC All PCsAll PCs

18. The reality:The reality:
Top 5 PC vendors worldwide shipments, in thousandsTop 5 PC vendors worldwide shipments, in thousands
Source: IDC (http://www.businessinsider.com/the-pc-industry-implodes-2013-4)
Q1 2012Q1 2012 Q1 2013Q1 2013
00
55
1010
1515
2020
HPHP LenovoLenovo DellDell AcerAcer ASUSASUS

19. The reality:The reality:
Global PC shipments in Q4 2012Global PC shipments in Q4 2012
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Gartner (http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2013)

20. The reality:The reality:
PC/iOS & Android Unit SalesPC/iOS & Android Unit Sales
Source: Asymco, “The PC Calamity” (http://www.asymco.com/2013/07/18/the-pc-calamity/)
(Outpacing PC sales 2.6 to 1)(Outpacing PC sales 2.6 to 1)

22. A high schooler guide to the future ofA high schooler guide to the future of
programming languagesprogramming languages
(Circa 1994)
C, COBOL, Clipper

23. The reality: most popular languages, TIOBEThe reality: most popular languages, TIOBE
Programming Community IndexProgramming Community Index
(August 2013)
C: #2
COBOL: #27
Clipper: ...
Source: TIOBE Programming Community Index for August 2013 (http://www.tiobe.com/index.php/content/paperinfo/tpci/index.html)

25. Second big mistake:Second big mistake:
Predicting what's coming next

26. Source: Street Cleaning, 1898 (http://books.google.com/books?id=CWlEAAAAMAAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false)

27. Source: Villemard, World in 2000 as Predicted in 1910 (http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-in-2000/)

28. Source: Villemard, World in 2000 as Predicted in 1910 (http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-in-2000/)

29. Source: Villemard, World in 2000 as Predicted in 1910 (http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-in-2000/)

30. Source: Arthur Radebaugh, "Closer Than We Think”, 1961 (http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/forget-barcodes-1961s-cash-register-of-the-future-und-509145222)

31. Source: The Newspaper of Tomorrow, 1934 (http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/paleofuture/2013/03/the-newspaper-of-tomorrow-11-predictions-from-yesteryear/)

32. Source: Future Passed, 1959 (http://www.theverge.com/2012/5/24/3035470/future-passed-television-history)

33. Source: Magic Highway USA, 1958 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3funFSRAbU)

34. The unknown:The unknown:
Disruptive Innovation

35. “(...) successful companies
can put too much emphasis
on customers' current
needs, and fail to adopt new
technology or business
models that will meet
customers' unstated or
future needs”

36. Disruptive InnovationDisruptive Innovation
Standard TechnologyStandard Technology Disruptive TechnologyDisruptive Technology
TimeTime
UtilityUtility

37. What about you?What about you?

38. Source: Thomas Jensen - Software Museum (http://thomasjensen.com/museum.shtml)

39. Thank you.Thank you.
@zeh@zeh
zeh@firstborn.comzeh@firstborn.com
http://zehfernando.comhttp://zehfernando.com