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Zinnov Management Consulting




 Indian Telecom Market Overview – October 2012




To access full report, please send your request to Info@zinnov.com
              This report is solely for the use of Zinnov Client and Zinnov Personnel. No Part of it may be quoted, circulated or
              reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from Zinnov.
Agenda




         1   Telecom Market Overview


         2   Key Technology Trends and Partnerships


         3   Government Regulations




                                                      2
Indian telecom industry is characterized by a large subscriber base, substantial tele-
       density but low revenues per user (ARPU1)
                                  Telecom Industry Landscape (July 2012)                                   Global Comparison of
                                                      33.8
                                                                       37.4                     38.7           ARPUs (USD)
            32.0                  31.7                                                     31
                                                                                                          46.5
                                                                              34
                                                       36

                                   38                                                                            32.0
                                                                           852            934
             39
                                                      636
                      5.9          427       3.8
                                                              2.6                   2.1           1.9
             287

           2008                   2009               2010                  2011           2012                           8.3
           28.3%                  39.9%             56.6%                  73.9%          79.6%                                 1.9
          Wireless Subscribers (Million)           Wireline Subscribers (Million)
          GSM ARPU (USD)                           Revenue (USD Billion)                   Tele-density   US     UK     China   India




   Large Subscriber                      • More than 3-fold increase in subscribers since 2008
         Base                            • High tele-density of 79.6% in 2012                              Indian telecom ARPUs
                                                                                                              are amongst the
                                                                                                             lowest worldwide
         Urban
                                         • 64.4% of the current subscribers are urban
       Dominance

Note: 1Average Revenue per User                                                                                                         3
Source: TRAI
Focus on Mobile Value Added Services (MVAS) opportunities is necessitated by
       declining share of voice in telecom ARPUs
                                     Average Per User Spending on MVAS (USD)
                   86.7%
                 0.31                     81.4%                      78.6%
                                                                                             72.7%
                                          0.34                        0.39
                                                                                              0.48
                                           1.50                      1.44
                    2.04                                                                      1.27

                                                                                              27.3%
                                             18.6%                       21.4%
                      13.3%

                   2009                   2010                       2011                     2012
                Spending on Voice   Spending on MVAS        MVAS as a %age of ARPU     Voice as %age of ARPU



          Declining voice                          In an effort to
         revenue straining
           Declining voice                                                           Growing smartphone
                                                  compliment the
         revenue straining
               ARPUs                            Carriers increasingly                Growing smartphone
                                                                                          adoption and
                                                   declining voice
               ARPUs                             focusing on adding                  adoption & increasing
                                                                                       increasing mobile
        However, per user                        revenues, carriers
                                              value added services to                internet penetration,
                                                                                         mobile internet
        spending on MVAS
         However, per user                     increasingly focusing
                                                  their portfolio to                  penetration further
                                                                                        further pushing
       increasing on MVAS
        spending both as a                    on adding value added
                                               supplement revenues                   proliferationMVAS
                                                                                         pushing of value
       percentage of ARPU
             increasing                           services to their
                                                                                         added services
        and as an absolute                            portfolio

Note:                                                                                                          4
Source: IAMAI
Indian MVAS market expected to move from the traditional SMS based services to
        internet based and app based services

                    Indian MVAS Market Size (USD Bn)                                   Revenue Share MVAS categories

                                                                                                         10%
                                                             5.1            Emerging                7%            27%          Current
                                      60.4%   4.3                          MVAS (37%)     5%                                  MVAS (63%)

                                                     38.4%                                     7%
                               3.1
             1.9                                                                                8%                14%
                                                                   19.9%
                                                                                                         17%
                                                                                   1                                    5%
            2009               2010           2011           2012 (E)
                                                                               CRBT                      News                Reverse CRBT
                    Market Size (INR Bn)       Y-o-Y Growth Rate               SMS Based                 Games               Education
                                                                               Governance                Health              Mobile App




                     Growing at declining rate,                                    Emerging MVAS categories are
                      Indian MVAS industry is                                        dependent primarily on
                    expected to value ~USD 6.6                                     • Telecom infrastructure
                           billion in 2013                                         • Type of handset


Note: 1Caller Ring Back Tone                                                                                                                5
Source: IAMAI
M-Health             M-Governance              M-Education           M-Infotainment              M-commerce   M-Agriculture

        Amidst visible traction for M-Governance in India, government pushed m-governance
        framework to aid adoption

     Many Indian states have initiated m-governance                                                        Government pushing directives to aid
     practices primarily through SMS-based platform                                                     governance across richer delivery platforms

                  Kerala                                       Bihar                                 M-Governance Framework for Public Services
    • M-governance used across                  •    Web based monitoring
      health, education, law,                        system at general admin                                                                        Uniform pre-
      agriculture, finance                           department using SMS                              One-Web approach
      functions                                      updates sent by relevant                                                                     designated codes
                                                                                                        to make websites
                                                     officers                                                                                     for mobile-based
                                                                                                        mobile compliant
                                                                                                                                                       services

                Gujarat                              Andhra Pradesh
                                                • Municipal Corp using GPS                                Deployment of                           Adoption of open
    • Rajkot Municipal Corp
      using SMS for sending                       enabled phones to                                       mobile apps for                           standards for
      property tax alerts,                        remotely monitor cleaning                               public services                         platform agnostic
      payment reminders, and                      of garbage bins
                                                                                                           across depts.                                 apps
      vaccination alerts



                                          Goa                                                             Creation of MSDG1, a shared technical e-
                                                                                                          governance infrastructure for delivering
    • ‘e-SMS Goa’ initiative aimed at easing the process of                                                            public services
      information delivery to citizens through the use of mobile




Note: 1Mobile Services Delivery Gateway                                                                                                                                 6
Source: Ministry of Communications & Information Technology, Department of Information Technology; Press articles, State government websites
M-Health        M-Governance       M-Education   M-Infotainment      M-commerce           M-Agriculture

        Major telecom players are enabling mobile platform as a medium to impart
        education

     Educational firms                                                                              • Edserv & Tata DoCoMo to offer IIT and AIEEE
                                       • Educational firms partnering with telecom players
     collaborating with                  to deliver education and expand their presence
                                                                                                      prep material through ‘Tutor on Mobile’
           telecos                                                                                    service




    Telecos taking CSR                                                                              • Aircel and MTS partnering with NGOs, such
                                       • Telecom players partnering with NGO’s as a CSR               as Concern India and Smile Foundation for
   initiatives to impart                 initiative to deliver education                              underprivileged children educational
         education                                                                                    initiatives




                                                                                                    • Airtel imparts education through IVR which
     Telecos delivering                                                                               includes
                          • Delivering basic level of education using mobile as
                                                                                                       • Sparsh- Education to adults
    basic level education   a medium                                                                   • English speaking course & Children
                                                                                                         stories




    Expanding reach of                                                                              • Reliance communication delivering
                                       • Using mobile platform to expand the reach of                 interactive, real time courses of XLRI1 across
    education through
                                         classroom education (e.g. in rural areas)                    105 cities
     mobile network



Note: 1An Indian Business School                                                                                                                       7
Source: Company websites; Press Articles
M-Health     M-Governance    M-Education     M-Infotainment       M-commerce         M-Agriculture

        Almost all leading telecom companies provide information and entertainment
        related services
                                    M-Infotainment is the largest contributor to overall MVAS revenue

                                    Key Information                                        Key Entertainment
                                      Categories                                               Categories

              Sports                                                        Music and Video
              • Live coverage & scores, results, analysis and reviews       • Radio services round the clock
                of sporting tournaments like CL T20, CB series etc.         • Offers movies-on-demand service and Video-on-
                                                                              demand portal




              Travel                                                        Ringtones
              • Information on flight, railways, taxis schedules and        • Huge library of songs is available
                fares                                                       • Templatize & personalize caller tune




              News and Finance                                              Content offering
              • International , national and regional news                  • Indian mythological stories in different Indian
              • Stock updates, foreign exchange rates alerts services         languages




Note:                                                                                                                                       8
Source: Company websites; Press Articles
M-Health             M-Governance              M-Education           M-Infotainment          M-commerce       M-Agriculture

        Telecom carriers increasingly taking interest in m-commerce services as the
        government aids through reforms


                 M- Microfinance                                             Mobile wallet service                                           M- Retailing

     • Enables microfinance activities                            • Pay for a wide range of services                           • Retail players developing
       through mobile phones                                        and goods                                                    mobile compliant websites &
                                                                                                                                 apps
                                                                                                                               • Focus on expanding reach
                                                                                                                               Use Case:
     Use Case:                                                    Use Case:                                                                • Flipkart and Naaptol
                  • SBI with Ekoaspire & Oxigen                                • Allows users to load cash                                   provide android Apps
                    Sahyog, is providing banking                                 on their mobile devices to                                • SMS alerts for DoCoMo
                    & microfinance services in                                   pay utility bills etc.                                      subscribers on wide range
                    rural areas                                                                                                              of product & services along
                                                                                                                                             with discount benefits on
                                                                                                                                             snapdeal




      Government initiatives in M-commerce
      • RBI increased mobile payment limit to INR 50,000 (~USD 1,000)
      • RBI granting Semi-Closed Wallet1 licenses to telecos

      • Creation of Interbank Mobile Payment Service (IMPS), by NPCI2 along with 6
        Nationalized banks

Note: 1A mobile payment mechanism allowing users to load cash into their mobile phones; 2 National Payments Corporation of India                                           9
Source: Company websites; Press Articles
M-Health     M-Governance   M-Education        M-Infotainment         M-commerce     M-Agriculture

       M-agriculture services finding traction with Indian farmers

                                                                                        • Key services includes
                                                                                          commodity prices, local
                                                                       Grameen            info, weather updates etc.
                                                                         VAS            • Multiple language support
       M- agriculture services
                                                                                        • Accessible via voice
       bridge the information                                                             portals, SMS, USSD1 and
       gap between the                                                                    Data
       farmers and market
       conditions
                                                                      M-agriculture
                                                                        initiatives

                                                    Bahtar
                                                                                                    Fasal
                                                    Zindagi


    • IVR based service available in 16 regional languages                            • Free SMS based platform offering real time price
                                                                                        information to Indian farmers about their crops
    • Provides information related to weather, agriculture, mandi
      rates, live stocks, health, rural finance, and education                        • Huge adoption with more than 20,000 farmers being
                                                                                        added every week

Note: 1Unstructured Supplementary Service Data                                                                                                   10
Source: Company websites; Press Articles
Telecom companies are also aggressively focusing on the fast growing data center
        market in India (1/2)
                            Data Center Market &                                                            Distribution of Data Center Market in
                              Capacity in India                                                                   India by Ownership, CY11
            Data Center Market (USD bn)
                                                                           5.7                                                                           Key Verticals:
            Data Center Capacity (mn Sq. Ft.)                                                                                                            • BFSI
                                                                                                                                                         • Manufacturing
                                                 4.2                                                                                  Captive            • Government
                                                                                                                                       78%               • Telecom
                      3.1
                                                                                                                    Third Party
                                                                                                  Key Verticals:
                                                                     4.0                                               22%
                                                                                                  • Manufacturing
                                           2.6                                                    • IT-ITeS/ Telecom
                1.7                                                                               • Healthcare
                                                                                                  • Education
               CY10                       CY12                      CY14                        • Based on the demand preferences, the 3rd party datacenter market is
                                                                                                  expected to grow rapidly as opposed to captive data centers
              CIO Preference for Data                                                           • Lack of in-house skills, high investments, and long gestation periods pose
                                                                                                  challenges for captive datacenters in India
             Center (Survey Responses)

       MNC with Can't Say                                                          Competitor               DC Tier                Cost Components              Cost Share
       datacenter   7%                                                     Tata Communications                 II/III             Power                             38%
      outside India
           7%                                                              Ctrls                                IV                Maintenance                       21%
      Domestic                     MNC with
                                                                           NetMagic                            III+
    company with                 datacenter in                                                                                    Bandwidth                         12%
    datacenter in                    India                                 Reliance IDC                        III+
        India                         50%                                                                                         Equipment                         12%
                          My own                                           Airtel                             III/III+
         8%                                                                                                                       Facility                          10%
                        datacenter                                         Wipro                                III
                           28%
                                                                           Sify                                 III               Manpower                           7%

Note:                                                                                                                                                                          11
Source: Gartner; IDC; Company websites; Cyber media; mit.gov.in; Zinnov CIO survey 2010; Zinnov Analysis
Key telecom players have also created an extensive portfolio for cloud based services


                                                            Cloud/ Hosting Portfolio of Key Telecom Companies

                                                                                                 Airtel               Reliance Comm.             Tata Comm.
                                            ERP                                                                                  
                                            F&A                                                     
   Applications                             CRM                                                                                                          
   (SaaS/ Hosted)                           HRM                                                                                                          
                                            Web Collaboration                                                                                           
                                            Email                                                                                                      
              IaaS/ Virtualized Infra.                                                                                                                 
              PaaS
                                            Co-location                                                                                                
   Data Center Services
                                            Managed Hosting                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                           • Vertical Specific Soln.
                                                                                      • Vertical Specific Soln.                             ofor Media & Entertainment
                                                                                       ofor Media & Entertainment                           oCore Banking Soln.
                                                                                      • Online Desktop (VDI)                               • On demand security
              Other Key Offerings                                                     • On demand security
                                                                                                                    • On demand security
                                                                                                                                           • Enterprise Mobility
                                                                                      • Hosted Contact Center                              • Hosted Contact Center
                                                                                      • Enterprise Mobility                                • Productivity Suites
                                                                                                                                           • Enterprise Content Management




                                                                                                                                                                             12
Source: Company websites, Primary interviews with key industry stakeholders; Zinnov Analysis
Accordingly, the telecom companies have also established key partnerships to build
cloud expertise

                                         Key Technology Partners of Key Telecom Companies

                          Competitor                             Technology Partners (Software)
                                                Savvis                 Ramco                         VeriSign
                 Airtel                         Microsoft              Tally                         VMware
                                                Symantec               Software developers for mobility apps
                 Reliance Comm.                 Ramco                  Microsoft                     BigRock
                                                Zoho                   SugarCRM                      Cisco
                 Tata Comm.                     SuccessFactors         Microsoft                     Google
                                                F-Secure



                  Hardware Partnerships                                        Network Carrier Partnerships
    Besides software partnerships, all competitors have formed   All data center service providers have strategic alliances with
   technology partnerships with most of the key hardware OEMs       key network carriers (like Airtel, Reliance, BSNL, etc.) to
                 like HP, IBM, Cisco, Juniper, etc.                     provide connectivity options to their customers




                                                                                                                                   13
Agenda




         1   Telecom Market Overview


         2   Key Technology Trends and Partnerships


         3   Government Regulations




                                                      14
There is mature adoption of IT across the entire value chain of the telecom vertical
                                                                             Telecom Value Chain
                                                                                                 Subscription
        Telecom                       Network                      Network                                                    Content
                                                                                                 & Devices1                                           Subscribers
        Infrastructure                Equipment                    Operator                                                   Portals
                                                                                                 Resellers

                                                                 Bharti Airtel                Company Outlet
      GTL -                        Nokia-Siemens
                                                                 Vodafone                     Dealers                       Facebook
      Infrastructure               Huawei
                                                                 Reliance Comm.               Blackberry                    Rediff
      Indus Towers                 Ericsson
                                                                 TTSL2                        Huawei                        App stores
      Tata Quippo                  Alcatel Lucent
                                                                 Sun Direct                   UTStarcom

           Core IT                    Network                             Enterprise                          Partner                         Customer
        Requirements                 Management                          Management                         Management                       Management

                                                                          ICT Solutions Across Processes

                                •Fault Management                   •Finance & Accounting              •Partner Network                  •Service Activation
                                •Config. Management                 •HR                                 Management                       •Revenue and Billing
                                •Account Management                 •Sales & Operation                 •Supply Chain                      Management
                                •Performance                         Planning                           Management                       •Customer Analytics
                                 Management                         •Facility Management               •Revenue Fraud                    •Contacts Centers/Call
                                •Security                           •DBMS3                              Management                        Centers

                                                                                                  Customer Portals/Customer Support (B2C/B2B)
                                                                                               Supply Chain Management
                                                                                              Enterprise Resource Planning
                                                                                                    VAS Management
                                   Network Solutions                                    Data Warehousing and Business Intelligence
                                                                                            OSS/BSS

Note: 1Devices include mobile handsets, modems, routers, set top boxes, etc.; 2Tata Teleservices Ltd.; 3Database Management System                                  15
Source: Zinnov Analysis
However, Indian telecom firms face various challenges in the adoption of IT




                                                 Lack of clarity on        Uncertain government
                                               consumer preferences             regulations




               Predictability of future
                                                                                          Management issues in
                 IT requirements is
                                                                                                PSUs
                       difficult

                                                                  Challenges
                                                                     in IT
                                                                   Adoption
Falling ARPUs affecting                                                                           High operation costs in
     profit margins                                                                                    remote areas




Note:                                                                                                                  16
Source: Primary Interviews with the CIOs; Zinnov Analysis
IT spending of the Indian Telecom vertical has grown at a rate of 14.3 per cent in
        FY12
                      IT Spending in Telecom, USD billion                                                                    IT Spend Distribution




                                                                                                                             Hardware              BPO
                                                              2.4                                                             39.5%               24.8%
                               2.1
                                                                                                                                            Services
                                                                                                                            Software         29.7%
                                                                                                                              6.0%

                              FY11                           FY12


                   IT Budget as a Per cent of Revenues                                                                    Percentage Outsourcing

                          5% to 6%
                                                                                                                                                            70%
                                                         3% to 4%
                                                                                                                             67%



                              FY07                           FY12                                                            FY07                           FY12




Note:                                                                                                                                                                                      17
Source: Nielsen Domestic IT-BPO Study 2010; Primary Interviews with Stakeholders in the Indian IT ecosystem; Zinnov’s Survey of 100 Indian CIOs across Verticals (2010); Zinnov Analysis
Telecom companies are spending on upgrading their technologies and in better
        management of business processes

                                                                 Upgrading Legacy Infrastructure




                                                                      Platform Integration




                                                                   Managing Partner Network
                   IT Adoption
                     Trends in
                     Telecom
                      vertical
                                                                 Implementing Security Solutions



                                                            New Infrastructure for Datacenter/Network
                                                                            Expansion



                                                                     Private Cloud Adoption




Note:                                                                                                   18
Source: Primary Interviews with the CIOs; Zinnov Analysis
Supply side companies are launching a host of initiatives to come up with better
        solutions for the telecom vertical


                                                                                  Strategic partnerships to
                                                                                develop customized solutions
           New business models

                                                                              Tech Mahindra entered into an alliance with
    Quality outsourcing work is done out of                                   Microsoft to offer customizable BI solutions
    large city centers while voice-based call                                        to telecom service providers
     centers are operated out of tier II and
     tier III cities. E.g.. Aditya Birla Minacs
          and Hinduja Global Solutions
                                                            Key Initiatives
                                                                                  Acquiring firms for capacity
                                                             Taken by the                 expansion
                                                              Supply Side
      Establishing telecom specific                                            OnMobile Global Ltd. acquired Dilithium
            research centers                                                   Networks Inc. to get access to Dilithium’s
                                                                               extensive patent portfolio and enrich its
                                                                                 offerings in 3G video mobile services
      Wipro and Nokia Siemens Networks
    have established dedicated centers and
     testing labs for 3G and other telecom
              specific technologies
                                                                                 Encouraging innovation and
                                                                                     training ecosystem

                                                                                       VerSe Innovation Pvt. Ltd.
                                                                                       partnered with OnMobile


Note:                                                                                                                  19
Source: Primary Interviews with the CIOs; Zinnov Analysis
OSS/BSS Partnerships have evolved in Indian Telecom Industry

      OSS Solution     Tata    Bharti    Vodafone   Reliance     Idea              Comments

                                                                        • Market share of Ericsson
        Prepaid
                                                                          increased with acquisition of
        Charging
                                                                          Telcordia

                                                                        • CRM solutions also being
           CRM
                                                                          provided by Elitecore

       Fraud                                                            • Subex gained market share
     Management                                                           with new fraud management
                                                                          contracts
        Revenue                                                         • Near universal uptake in both
                                           NA                    NA
       Assurance                                                          the segments


                                                                        • Solutions from Amdocs and
       Mediation                                      NA
                                                                          CSG are also popular

                                                                        • Solutions from Oracle and
         Order
                                                                          Elitecore also being used by
      Provisioning
                                                                          other carriers

        Business                                                        • Almost all carriers using
                                NA                    NA
      Intelligence                                                        Cognos BI solution

      Interconnect                                                      • Elitecore gained market share
         Billing                                                          with new projects

Note:                                                                                                     20
Source: Voice & Data
Telecom carriers in India have multiple partners who help them operate key aspects
        of their business
     Telecom Equipment & Network Infrastructure                                    IT and Software Requirements
   • Prominent infrastructure providers are currently active in 3G      • Partnerships with IT and software companies for technology
     and 4G rollouts                                                      infrastructure, and solutions, such as billing, business
   • Inter carrier partnerships for passive tower sharing                 intelligence, cloud services, and others



                                                                                    +                               +
                                                                                    +                               +
                                                                Telecom
                                                              Partnerships
                             Customer Support                   in India                 Value Added Services
   • Partnerships with Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)               • Partnerships with content generators, aggregators, and
     companies to run their customer care operations                      portals, for delivery of value added services




                                                                                   +                                  +
                  +                              +
                                                                                                    +
Note:                                                                                                                                  21
Source: Company websites; Press Articles
Going forward IT demand in the telecom vertical will continue to grow at a CAGR of
       14.2 per cent primarily due to the introduction of new services by telecom players



                                                                                       7.1            Expected IT
                                                                                                      Spending in
                                                                                                   Telecom Vertical,
                                                                              4.0
                                                           2.8                                        USD billion


                                                          FY13E           FY15E       FY20E


                                          Rising subscriber base creating demand
           The Future of Indian Telecom




                                          Data based services is increasing


                                          Introduction of 4G in India                                                  Sustainable
                                                                                                                         Growth
                                          Increased adoption of smart phones and new age devices


                                          National Telecom Policy


Note:                                                                                                                                22
Source: PwC Mobile Broadband Outlook Report 2015; Zinnov Analysis
Agenda




         1   Telecom Market Overview


         2   Key Technology Trends and Partnerships


         3   Government Regulations




                                                      23
Indian telecom industry is regulated by an independent body called Telecom
        Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI)

     • Established in 1997 as an independent body for regulation of telecom services in India, TRAI separated the
       regulatory function from policy-making and operation, which continued to be under the purview of the DoT


                                                              Facilitating
                                                             competition
                                      Ensuring technical    and promoting
                                                               efficiency       Protecting interest
                                      compatibility and
                                       effective inter-
                                                                                of telecom service
                                         connection                                 consumers


                        Recommending
                      license terms and                                                        Monitor the quality
                           ensuring                                                               of service
                          compliance




                                                               Telecom                                Levying fees as
                 Recommending
                                                              Regulatory                                  may be
               introduction of new                         Authority of India                         determined by
                 service provider                               (TRAI)                                  regulations


Note:                                                                                                                   24
Source: TRAI
Evolution of Indian telecom regulatory framework

   Pre-Liberalization Scenario           Establishment of TRAI                         New Telecom Policy (NTP-99)
                                       • Aimed at regulating telecom        • Affordable communication for citizens
   • 1984 – Private Sector                                                  • Provision of universal service to all uncovered areas,
                                         services
     allowed only in telecom                                                  including rural areas
                                       • Separated the regulatory
     equipment manufacturing                                                • Convergence of IT, media, telecom and consumer
                                         function from policy-making
   • 1985: Department of                                                      electronics
                                         and operation from DoT
     Telecommunication (DoT)                                                • Build manufacturing capabilities and strengthen R&D
     established                                                            • Efficiency and transparency in spectrum management




                            1991            1994                                                                              2000
     1984                                                               1997                                      1999


     Liberalization Policy                        National Telecom Policy                   Developments After 2000
  • Private sector participation                         (NTP-94)
    in provision of value added    • Facilitated the emergence of                 • Establishment of BSNL; privatization of VSNL
    system(VAS) such as cellular     Internet services in India                   • 2002: Establishment of Universal Service
    and paging services            • Specific targets announced to be               Obligation Fund to finance subsidies for rural
                                     achieved by 1997                               areas
                                   • Paved way for the entry of the               • 2003: Introduction of Unified Access Licensing
                                     private sector in telephone services           (UASL) regime
                                                                                  • 2005: Increase in FDI limits from 49% to 74%
                                                                                  • 2006: Proposal for mobile number portability


Note:                                                                                                                                  25
Source: D&B
Thank You   69 "Prathiba Complex", 4th 'A' Cross,
            Koramangala Ind. Layout
            5th Block, Koramangala
            Bangalore – 560095
            Phone: +91-80-41127925/6

            Plot no. 131, 1st Floor
            Sector 44,
            Gurgaon – 122002
            Phone: +91-124- 4420100

            3701 Patrick Henry Dr.
            Building 7
            Santa Clara
            CA – 95054
            Phone: +1-408-716-8432

            21, Waterway Ave,
            Suite 300
            The Woodlands
            TX – 77380
            Phone: +1-281-362-2773

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Indian Telecom Market Overview

  • 1. Zinnov Management Consulting Indian Telecom Market Overview – October 2012 To access full report, please send your request to Info@zinnov.com This report is solely for the use of Zinnov Client and Zinnov Personnel. No Part of it may be quoted, circulated or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from Zinnov.
  • 2. Agenda 1 Telecom Market Overview 2 Key Technology Trends and Partnerships 3 Government Regulations 2
  • 3. Indian telecom industry is characterized by a large subscriber base, substantial tele- density but low revenues per user (ARPU1) Telecom Industry Landscape (July 2012) Global Comparison of 33.8 37.4 38.7 ARPUs (USD) 32.0 31.7 31 46.5 34 36 38 32.0 852 934 39 636 5.9 427 3.8 2.6 2.1 1.9 287 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 8.3 28.3% 39.9% 56.6% 73.9% 79.6% 1.9 Wireless Subscribers (Million) Wireline Subscribers (Million) GSM ARPU (USD) Revenue (USD Billion) Tele-density US UK China India Large Subscriber • More than 3-fold increase in subscribers since 2008 Base • High tele-density of 79.6% in 2012 Indian telecom ARPUs are amongst the lowest worldwide Urban • 64.4% of the current subscribers are urban Dominance Note: 1Average Revenue per User 3 Source: TRAI
  • 4. Focus on Mobile Value Added Services (MVAS) opportunities is necessitated by declining share of voice in telecom ARPUs Average Per User Spending on MVAS (USD) 86.7% 0.31 81.4% 78.6% 72.7% 0.34 0.39 0.48 1.50 1.44 2.04 1.27 27.3% 18.6% 21.4% 13.3% 2009 2010 2011 2012 Spending on Voice Spending on MVAS MVAS as a %age of ARPU Voice as %age of ARPU Declining voice In an effort to revenue straining Declining voice Growing smartphone compliment the revenue straining ARPUs Carriers increasingly Growing smartphone adoption and declining voice ARPUs focusing on adding adoption & increasing increasing mobile However, per user revenues, carriers value added services to internet penetration, mobile internet spending on MVAS However, per user increasingly focusing their portfolio to penetration further further pushing increasing on MVAS spending both as a on adding value added supplement revenues proliferationMVAS pushing of value percentage of ARPU increasing services to their added services and as an absolute portfolio Note: 4 Source: IAMAI
  • 5. Indian MVAS market expected to move from the traditional SMS based services to internet based and app based services Indian MVAS Market Size (USD Bn) Revenue Share MVAS categories 10% 5.1 Emerging 7% 27% Current 60.4% 4.3 MVAS (37%) 5% MVAS (63%) 38.4% 7% 3.1 1.9 8% 14% 19.9% 17% 1 5% 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) CRBT News Reverse CRBT Market Size (INR Bn) Y-o-Y Growth Rate SMS Based Games Education Governance Health Mobile App Growing at declining rate, Emerging MVAS categories are Indian MVAS industry is dependent primarily on expected to value ~USD 6.6 • Telecom infrastructure billion in 2013 • Type of handset Note: 1Caller Ring Back Tone 5 Source: IAMAI
  • 6. M-Health M-Governance M-Education M-Infotainment M-commerce M-Agriculture Amidst visible traction for M-Governance in India, government pushed m-governance framework to aid adoption Many Indian states have initiated m-governance Government pushing directives to aid practices primarily through SMS-based platform governance across richer delivery platforms Kerala Bihar M-Governance Framework for Public Services • M-governance used across • Web based monitoring health, education, law, system at general admin Uniform pre- agriculture, finance department using SMS One-Web approach functions updates sent by relevant designated codes to make websites officers for mobile-based mobile compliant services Gujarat Andhra Pradesh • Municipal Corp using GPS Deployment of Adoption of open • Rajkot Municipal Corp using SMS for sending enabled phones to mobile apps for standards for property tax alerts, remotely monitor cleaning public services platform agnostic payment reminders, and of garbage bins across depts. apps vaccination alerts Goa Creation of MSDG1, a shared technical e- governance infrastructure for delivering • ‘e-SMS Goa’ initiative aimed at easing the process of public services information delivery to citizens through the use of mobile Note: 1Mobile Services Delivery Gateway 6 Source: Ministry of Communications & Information Technology, Department of Information Technology; Press articles, State government websites
  • 7. M-Health M-Governance M-Education M-Infotainment M-commerce M-Agriculture Major telecom players are enabling mobile platform as a medium to impart education Educational firms • Edserv & Tata DoCoMo to offer IIT and AIEEE • Educational firms partnering with telecom players collaborating with to deliver education and expand their presence prep material through ‘Tutor on Mobile’ telecos service Telecos taking CSR • Aircel and MTS partnering with NGOs, such • Telecom players partnering with NGO’s as a CSR as Concern India and Smile Foundation for initiatives to impart initiative to deliver education underprivileged children educational education initiatives • Airtel imparts education through IVR which Telecos delivering includes • Delivering basic level of education using mobile as • Sparsh- Education to adults basic level education a medium • English speaking course & Children stories Expanding reach of • Reliance communication delivering • Using mobile platform to expand the reach of interactive, real time courses of XLRI1 across education through classroom education (e.g. in rural areas) 105 cities mobile network Note: 1An Indian Business School 7 Source: Company websites; Press Articles
  • 8. M-Health M-Governance M-Education M-Infotainment M-commerce M-Agriculture Almost all leading telecom companies provide information and entertainment related services M-Infotainment is the largest contributor to overall MVAS revenue Key Information Key Entertainment Categories Categories Sports Music and Video • Live coverage & scores, results, analysis and reviews • Radio services round the clock of sporting tournaments like CL T20, CB series etc. • Offers movies-on-demand service and Video-on- demand portal Travel Ringtones • Information on flight, railways, taxis schedules and • Huge library of songs is available fares • Templatize & personalize caller tune News and Finance Content offering • International , national and regional news • Indian mythological stories in different Indian • Stock updates, foreign exchange rates alerts services languages Note: 8 Source: Company websites; Press Articles
  • 9. M-Health M-Governance M-Education M-Infotainment M-commerce M-Agriculture Telecom carriers increasingly taking interest in m-commerce services as the government aids through reforms M- Microfinance Mobile wallet service M- Retailing • Enables microfinance activities • Pay for a wide range of services • Retail players developing through mobile phones and goods mobile compliant websites & apps • Focus on expanding reach Use Case: Use Case: Use Case: • Flipkart and Naaptol • SBI with Ekoaspire & Oxigen • Allows users to load cash provide android Apps Sahyog, is providing banking on their mobile devices to • SMS alerts for DoCoMo & microfinance services in pay utility bills etc. subscribers on wide range rural areas of product & services along with discount benefits on snapdeal Government initiatives in M-commerce • RBI increased mobile payment limit to INR 50,000 (~USD 1,000) • RBI granting Semi-Closed Wallet1 licenses to telecos • Creation of Interbank Mobile Payment Service (IMPS), by NPCI2 along with 6 Nationalized banks Note: 1A mobile payment mechanism allowing users to load cash into their mobile phones; 2 National Payments Corporation of India 9 Source: Company websites; Press Articles
  • 10. M-Health M-Governance M-Education M-Infotainment M-commerce M-Agriculture M-agriculture services finding traction with Indian farmers • Key services includes commodity prices, local Grameen info, weather updates etc. VAS • Multiple language support M- agriculture services • Accessible via voice bridge the information portals, SMS, USSD1 and gap between the Data farmers and market conditions M-agriculture initiatives Bahtar Fasal Zindagi • IVR based service available in 16 regional languages • Free SMS based platform offering real time price information to Indian farmers about their crops • Provides information related to weather, agriculture, mandi rates, live stocks, health, rural finance, and education • Huge adoption with more than 20,000 farmers being added every week Note: 1Unstructured Supplementary Service Data 10 Source: Company websites; Press Articles
  • 11. Telecom companies are also aggressively focusing on the fast growing data center market in India (1/2) Data Center Market & Distribution of Data Center Market in Capacity in India India by Ownership, CY11 Data Center Market (USD bn) 5.7 Key Verticals: Data Center Capacity (mn Sq. Ft.) • BFSI • Manufacturing 4.2 Captive • Government 78% • Telecom 3.1 Third Party Key Verticals: 4.0 22% • Manufacturing 2.6 • IT-ITeS/ Telecom 1.7 • Healthcare • Education CY10 CY12 CY14 • Based on the demand preferences, the 3rd party datacenter market is expected to grow rapidly as opposed to captive data centers CIO Preference for Data • Lack of in-house skills, high investments, and long gestation periods pose challenges for captive datacenters in India Center (Survey Responses) MNC with Can't Say Competitor DC Tier Cost Components Cost Share datacenter 7% Tata Communications II/III Power 38% outside India 7% Ctrls IV Maintenance 21% Domestic MNC with NetMagic III+ company with datacenter in Bandwidth 12% datacenter in India Reliance IDC III+ India 50% Equipment 12% My own Airtel III/III+ 8% Facility 10% datacenter Wipro III 28% Sify III Manpower 7% Note: 11 Source: Gartner; IDC; Company websites; Cyber media; mit.gov.in; Zinnov CIO survey 2010; Zinnov Analysis
  • 12. Key telecom players have also created an extensive portfolio for cloud based services Cloud/ Hosting Portfolio of Key Telecom Companies Airtel Reliance Comm. Tata Comm. ERP   F&A  Applications CRM  (SaaS/ Hosted) HRM  Web Collaboration   Email    IaaS/ Virtualized Infra.    PaaS Co-location    Data Center Services Managed Hosting    • Vertical Specific Soln. • Vertical Specific Soln. ofor Media & Entertainment ofor Media & Entertainment oCore Banking Soln. • Online Desktop (VDI) • On demand security Other Key Offerings • On demand security • On demand security • Enterprise Mobility • Hosted Contact Center • Hosted Contact Center • Enterprise Mobility • Productivity Suites • Enterprise Content Management 12 Source: Company websites, Primary interviews with key industry stakeholders; Zinnov Analysis
  • 13. Accordingly, the telecom companies have also established key partnerships to build cloud expertise Key Technology Partners of Key Telecom Companies Competitor Technology Partners (Software) Savvis Ramco VeriSign Airtel Microsoft Tally VMware Symantec Software developers for mobility apps Reliance Comm. Ramco Microsoft BigRock Zoho SugarCRM Cisco Tata Comm. SuccessFactors Microsoft Google F-Secure Hardware Partnerships Network Carrier Partnerships Besides software partnerships, all competitors have formed All data center service providers have strategic alliances with technology partnerships with most of the key hardware OEMs key network carriers (like Airtel, Reliance, BSNL, etc.) to like HP, IBM, Cisco, Juniper, etc. provide connectivity options to their customers 13
  • 14. Agenda 1 Telecom Market Overview 2 Key Technology Trends and Partnerships 3 Government Regulations 14
  • 15. There is mature adoption of IT across the entire value chain of the telecom vertical Telecom Value Chain Subscription Telecom Network Network Content & Devices1 Subscribers Infrastructure Equipment Operator Portals Resellers Bharti Airtel Company Outlet GTL - Nokia-Siemens Vodafone Dealers Facebook Infrastructure Huawei Reliance Comm. Blackberry Rediff Indus Towers Ericsson TTSL2 Huawei App stores Tata Quippo Alcatel Lucent Sun Direct UTStarcom Core IT Network Enterprise Partner Customer Requirements Management Management Management Management ICT Solutions Across Processes •Fault Management •Finance & Accounting •Partner Network •Service Activation •Config. Management •HR Management •Revenue and Billing •Account Management •Sales & Operation •Supply Chain Management •Performance Planning Management •Customer Analytics Management •Facility Management •Revenue Fraud •Contacts Centers/Call •Security •DBMS3 Management Centers Customer Portals/Customer Support (B2C/B2B) Supply Chain Management Enterprise Resource Planning VAS Management Network Solutions Data Warehousing and Business Intelligence OSS/BSS Note: 1Devices include mobile handsets, modems, routers, set top boxes, etc.; 2Tata Teleservices Ltd.; 3Database Management System 15 Source: Zinnov Analysis
  • 16. However, Indian telecom firms face various challenges in the adoption of IT Lack of clarity on Uncertain government consumer preferences regulations Predictability of future Management issues in IT requirements is PSUs difficult Challenges in IT Adoption Falling ARPUs affecting High operation costs in profit margins remote areas Note: 16 Source: Primary Interviews with the CIOs; Zinnov Analysis
  • 17. IT spending of the Indian Telecom vertical has grown at a rate of 14.3 per cent in FY12 IT Spending in Telecom, USD billion IT Spend Distribution Hardware BPO 2.4 39.5% 24.8% 2.1 Services Software 29.7% 6.0% FY11 FY12 IT Budget as a Per cent of Revenues Percentage Outsourcing 5% to 6% 70% 3% to 4% 67% FY07 FY12 FY07 FY12 Note: 17 Source: Nielsen Domestic IT-BPO Study 2010; Primary Interviews with Stakeholders in the Indian IT ecosystem; Zinnov’s Survey of 100 Indian CIOs across Verticals (2010); Zinnov Analysis
  • 18. Telecom companies are spending on upgrading their technologies and in better management of business processes Upgrading Legacy Infrastructure Platform Integration Managing Partner Network IT Adoption Trends in Telecom vertical Implementing Security Solutions New Infrastructure for Datacenter/Network Expansion Private Cloud Adoption Note: 18 Source: Primary Interviews with the CIOs; Zinnov Analysis
  • 19. Supply side companies are launching a host of initiatives to come up with better solutions for the telecom vertical Strategic partnerships to develop customized solutions New business models Tech Mahindra entered into an alliance with Quality outsourcing work is done out of Microsoft to offer customizable BI solutions large city centers while voice-based call to telecom service providers centers are operated out of tier II and tier III cities. E.g.. Aditya Birla Minacs and Hinduja Global Solutions Key Initiatives Acquiring firms for capacity Taken by the expansion Supply Side Establishing telecom specific OnMobile Global Ltd. acquired Dilithium research centers Networks Inc. to get access to Dilithium’s extensive patent portfolio and enrich its offerings in 3G video mobile services Wipro and Nokia Siemens Networks have established dedicated centers and testing labs for 3G and other telecom specific technologies Encouraging innovation and training ecosystem VerSe Innovation Pvt. Ltd. partnered with OnMobile Note: 19 Source: Primary Interviews with the CIOs; Zinnov Analysis
  • 20. OSS/BSS Partnerships have evolved in Indian Telecom Industry OSS Solution Tata Bharti Vodafone Reliance Idea Comments • Market share of Ericsson Prepaid increased with acquisition of Charging Telcordia • CRM solutions also being CRM provided by Elitecore Fraud • Subex gained market share Management with new fraud management contracts Revenue • Near universal uptake in both NA NA Assurance the segments • Solutions from Amdocs and Mediation NA CSG are also popular • Solutions from Oracle and Order Elitecore also being used by Provisioning other carriers Business • Almost all carriers using NA NA Intelligence Cognos BI solution Interconnect • Elitecore gained market share Billing with new projects Note: 20 Source: Voice & Data
  • 21. Telecom carriers in India have multiple partners who help them operate key aspects of their business Telecom Equipment & Network Infrastructure IT and Software Requirements • Prominent infrastructure providers are currently active in 3G • Partnerships with IT and software companies for technology and 4G rollouts infrastructure, and solutions, such as billing, business • Inter carrier partnerships for passive tower sharing intelligence, cloud services, and others + + + + Telecom Partnerships Customer Support in India Value Added Services • Partnerships with Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) • Partnerships with content generators, aggregators, and companies to run their customer care operations portals, for delivery of value added services + + + + + Note: 21 Source: Company websites; Press Articles
  • 22. Going forward IT demand in the telecom vertical will continue to grow at a CAGR of 14.2 per cent primarily due to the introduction of new services by telecom players 7.1 Expected IT Spending in Telecom Vertical, 4.0 2.8 USD billion FY13E FY15E FY20E Rising subscriber base creating demand The Future of Indian Telecom Data based services is increasing Introduction of 4G in India Sustainable Growth Increased adoption of smart phones and new age devices National Telecom Policy Note: 22 Source: PwC Mobile Broadband Outlook Report 2015; Zinnov Analysis
  • 23. Agenda 1 Telecom Market Overview 2 Key Technology Trends and Partnerships 3 Government Regulations 23
  • 24. Indian telecom industry is regulated by an independent body called Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) • Established in 1997 as an independent body for regulation of telecom services in India, TRAI separated the regulatory function from policy-making and operation, which continued to be under the purview of the DoT Facilitating competition Ensuring technical and promoting efficiency Protecting interest compatibility and effective inter- of telecom service connection consumers Recommending license terms and Monitor the quality ensuring of service compliance Telecom Levying fees as Recommending Regulatory may be introduction of new Authority of India determined by service provider (TRAI) regulations Note: 24 Source: TRAI
  • 25. Evolution of Indian telecom regulatory framework Pre-Liberalization Scenario Establishment of TRAI New Telecom Policy (NTP-99) • Aimed at regulating telecom • Affordable communication for citizens • 1984 – Private Sector • Provision of universal service to all uncovered areas, services allowed only in telecom including rural areas • Separated the regulatory equipment manufacturing • Convergence of IT, media, telecom and consumer function from policy-making • 1985: Department of electronics and operation from DoT Telecommunication (DoT) • Build manufacturing capabilities and strengthen R&D established • Efficiency and transparency in spectrum management 1991 1994 2000 1984 1997 1999 Liberalization Policy National Telecom Policy Developments After 2000 • Private sector participation (NTP-94) in provision of value added • Facilitated the emergence of • Establishment of BSNL; privatization of VSNL system(VAS) such as cellular Internet services in India • 2002: Establishment of Universal Service and paging services • Specific targets announced to be Obligation Fund to finance subsidies for rural achieved by 1997 areas • Paved way for the entry of the • 2003: Introduction of Unified Access Licensing private sector in telephone services (UASL) regime • 2005: Increase in FDI limits from 49% to 74% • 2006: Proposal for mobile number portability Note: 25 Source: D&B
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