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CLIMATE RISK MANGEMENT IN WEST AFRICA
   communicating probabilistic seasonal forecasting to
improve farmers’ management decision in Kaffrine, Senegal

               Ousmane Ndiaye, ANACIM
               Robert Zougmoré, CCAFS
“ The impact of climate change will fall disproportionately on
the world’s poorest countries, many of them here in Africa.
         ’
Poor people already live on the front lines of pollution, disaster,
and the degradation of resources and land. For them,
adaptation is a matter of sheer survival ”
                                Kofi Annan




                      Burkina, flooding 2009, courtesy by Guillaume
CLIMATE IMPACTS
  Rain-fed agriculture : shift in seasonality, total,
 onset, distribution (food security, population)

 climate related disease : vector born diseases and
 water related diseases

  hydropower management : dam, river flow,

  flood management in a rapid and unplanned
 urbanization
Climate information for development

  Risk associated with climate variability
  Better management using climate information
  Reduce vulnerability : poverty, health, hunger, …
  Learning process : decision making tool
Many efforts made on climate research

                 PRESANOR



          PRES-AO (11)
                                                    GHACOF (22)


                             PRES-AC (3)




                                       SARCOF (11)




           Climate Information for Public Health Summer Institute, IRI, June 2009
EXAMPLE OF CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
        IN KAFFRINE, SENEGAL
Building a team of stakeholders:
multi-disciplinary approach
 Ministry of agriculture extensions (SDDR, 5 participants)
 Volunteers from World Vision (WV, 5)
 Agricultural advisers (ANCAR, 5)
 National agricultural research institute (ISRA, 1)
 National Farmers Union (Japandoo, 15)
 Organization of women producers (3)
 Peanuts-Seed producers Cooperation 2)
 Senegalese National Weather Agency (ANAMS, 5)
 Individual farmers (13)
Building trust for a long partnership

                  Building on local knowledge:
                  High humidity and high temperatures
                  can explain some of their indicators
                  “Stronger monsoon”

                  « When the wind is changing
                  direction to fetch the rain »

                  Establishing common ground :
                  Doing quite the same thing BUT
                  Better observing system
                  More reliable storage capacity (use of
                  numbers, maps, computers, …)
SETTING THE STAGE

Using historical forecast (memory):

Identify wet and dry years

Introduce normal year

Probability shift toward category : RISK

Link to the crop, harvest

Strategies and decision :
“Knowledge should precede action”
             farmer in kaffrine
team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist
TRAINING AND DISCUSSIONS
TALKING THE SAME LANGUAGE :
“WHAT 1 MM OF RAIN MEANS”
WHAT WOULD YOU DO DIFFERENTLY IF
     YOU’VE FORSEEN A DRY YEAR
• Crop requiring less water
• Short-cycle variety
• Bet on the lowest rainfall
  threshold observed in the past
• Reduce cultivated area in the
  farm
Seasonal forecast communicated to
farmers
EVALUATION : FORECAST AND PROCESS
PARTICIPANTS :
33 paysans, services techniques locaux (eaux et forets, ANCAR,
Agriculture, Vision Mondiale, ), organisations paysannes (JAPANDO,
FONGS, …)

THREE GROUPS :
1.17 received and used somehow the seasonal forecast
2.03 received but didn’t used it
3.13 never seen or heard of the seasonal forecast

QUESTIONS ASKED
1. What made you take a different strategy last year : say anything
2. Problems encountered ?
3. Recommandations ?
WHAT WE LEARNT
  Partnership and trust (social dimension)
  Invest on the long term and multi-disciplinary
(complex and complicate)
  Communication, communication,
communication (content, format, means,
medium)
  Ideally has a package :
    Climate forecast : seasonal and onset
    Opportunity : access to fund (wet forecast)
    Alternative : index insurance (dry forecast)
THANK YOU

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CCAFS Kaffrine forecast-coraf_science week

  • 1. CLIMATE RISK MANGEMENT IN WEST AFRICA communicating probabilistic seasonal forecasting to improve farmers’ management decision in Kaffrine, Senegal Ousmane Ndiaye, ANACIM Robert Zougmoré, CCAFS
  • 2. “ The impact of climate change will fall disproportionately on the world’s poorest countries, many of them here in Africa. ’ Poor people already live on the front lines of pollution, disaster, and the degradation of resources and land. For them, adaptation is a matter of sheer survival ” Kofi Annan Burkina, flooding 2009, courtesy by Guillaume
  • 3. CLIMATE IMPACTS Rain-fed agriculture : shift in seasonality, total, onset, distribution (food security, population) climate related disease : vector born diseases and water related diseases hydropower management : dam, river flow, flood management in a rapid and unplanned urbanization
  • 4. Climate information for development Risk associated with climate variability Better management using climate information Reduce vulnerability : poverty, health, hunger, … Learning process : decision making tool
  • 5. Many efforts made on climate research PRESANOR PRES-AO (11) GHACOF (22) PRES-AC (3) SARCOF (11) Climate Information for Public Health Summer Institute, IRI, June 2009
  • 6. EXAMPLE OF CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT IN KAFFRINE, SENEGAL
  • 7. Building a team of stakeholders: multi-disciplinary approach Ministry of agriculture extensions (SDDR, 5 participants) Volunteers from World Vision (WV, 5) Agricultural advisers (ANCAR, 5) National agricultural research institute (ISRA, 1) National Farmers Union (Japandoo, 15) Organization of women producers (3) Peanuts-Seed producers Cooperation 2) Senegalese National Weather Agency (ANAMS, 5) Individual farmers (13)
  • 8. Building trust for a long partnership Building on local knowledge: High humidity and high temperatures can explain some of their indicators “Stronger monsoon” « When the wind is changing direction to fetch the rain » Establishing common ground : Doing quite the same thing BUT Better observing system More reliable storage capacity (use of numbers, maps, computers, …)
  • 9. SETTING THE STAGE Using historical forecast (memory): Identify wet and dry years Introduce normal year Probability shift toward category : RISK Link to the crop, harvest Strategies and decision :
  • 10. “Knowledge should precede action” farmer in kaffrine team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist
  • 12. TALKING THE SAME LANGUAGE : “WHAT 1 MM OF RAIN MEANS”
  • 13. WHAT WOULD YOU DO DIFFERENTLY IF YOU’VE FORSEEN A DRY YEAR • Crop requiring less water • Short-cycle variety • Bet on the lowest rainfall threshold observed in the past • Reduce cultivated area in the farm
  • 15. EVALUATION : FORECAST AND PROCESS PARTICIPANTS : 33 paysans, services techniques locaux (eaux et forets, ANCAR, Agriculture, Vision Mondiale, ), organisations paysannes (JAPANDO, FONGS, …) THREE GROUPS : 1.17 received and used somehow the seasonal forecast 2.03 received but didn’t used it 3.13 never seen or heard of the seasonal forecast QUESTIONS ASKED 1. What made you take a different strategy last year : say anything 2. Problems encountered ? 3. Recommandations ?
  • 16. WHAT WE LEARNT Partnership and trust (social dimension) Invest on the long term and multi-disciplinary (complex and complicate) Communication, communication, communication (content, format, means, medium) Ideally has a package : Climate forecast : seasonal and onset Opportunity : access to fund (wet forecast) Alternative : index insurance (dry forecast)