4. Europe € H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD -0.4% -5.1% -20.0% ME & A $ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 25.7% 14.8% -18.2% Asia Pacific $ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 12.5% 2.9% -26.0% Americas $ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 4.2% -0.4% -20.6% UK £ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 2.5% -0.4% -11.1% Global - RevPAR Percent Change July 2009 YTD USA $ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 1.7% -1.8% -18.2%
5. Total US - Key Performance Indicators July 2008 versus July 2009 YTD As of July 2009
6. Total US - Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Full Year 2008 versus July 2009 YTD
7. Total US - Historic Supply & Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to July 2009 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc. 3.1% - 6.0% -1.1% - 4.8% ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼
8. Total US - Room Supply Percent Change Monthly Jan 2003 – July 2009 Stuck at 3.2
9. Total US - Closed Hotels Annual 2002 through 2009 2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc. 66,946 rooms in 2005 to 13,500 rooms in 2009 JQH: “not over developed, just under demolished”
10. Total US - Opened Hotels Annual 2002 through 2009 2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc. 152,001 rooms in 2008 , 155,000 rooms in 2009 estimated
11. Total US - Room Demand Percent Change Monthly January 2003 – July 2009
12. Total US – Historic Occupancy & ADR % Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to July 2009 -3.4% -6.8% -8.9% -5.1% -4.7% 0.1% Occ goes negative and ADR drops Occ turns around and ADR follows (approx. 3 months)
13. Total US - Historic Occupancy & ADR Twelve Month Moving Average – July 2009 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
14. If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year… Total US Historic Room Rates - Actual vs. Inflation Adjusted Annual 2000 - 2008
15. Total US - Demand & ADR Percent Change Running 28 Day ( Daily Data ) - January 1 to August 29, 2009
16. Total US - Group & Transient Demand % Change Running 28 Day – January 31, 2008 to August 29, 2009 Oct 2008 Jul 2009
17. Total US – Occupancy by Day of Week July 2008 YTD vs. July 2009 YTD Less of a gap on the weekend, Saturday highest occ day of week
18. Total US - ADR by Day of Week July 2008 YTD vs. July 2009 YTD Gap even for every day of the week
19. Total US - Transient Occupancy & ADR % Change Weekday / Weekend – August 29, YTD 2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc. Transient occupancy much less impacted on weekends ADR almost the same
20. Total US - Group Occupancy & ADR % Change Weekday / Weekend – September 5, YTD 2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc. Group occupancy less impacted on weekend ADR almost the same
27. Comparative States - Room Supply % Change July 2009 YTD 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
28. Comparative States - Room Demand % Change July 2009 YTD 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
29. Comparative States - Occupancy % Change July 2009 YTD 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc. 51.5% 53.7% 56.5% 58.4% 61.3% 51.9% 50.4% 58.5%
30. Comparative States - ADR Percent Change July 2009 YTD 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc. 104.36 99.99 79.95 98.40 113.60 99.04 76.25 153.77
31. Comparative States - RevPAR Percent Change July 2009 YTD 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc. 44.63 55.97 52.85 51.50 41.46 66.40 52.63 94.28
32. Baltimore Market 4 tracts – City , Suburbs (County), Area (Howard, Carroll, Harford, Queen Anne’s), BWI/Annapolis (Anne Arundel) Wilmington, DE (Cecil County)
33. Maryland Area Market 2 tracts – West (Washington, Allegheny, Garrett), Chesapeake/Ocean City (Kent, Talbot, Caroline, Dorcester, Wicomico, Worcester, St. Marys)
34. Washington, DC Market 3 MD tracts – Frederick/Rockville (Frederick, Montgomery), Bethesda/College Park , MD South/East (Prince Georges, Calvert, Charles)
35. Maryland Hotel Census Statistics by Tract July 2009 YTD 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc. Market Tract Census Sample Props Rooms Props Rooms Baltimore Baltimore City 49 9,452 38 8,998 Baltimore Baltimore Suburbs 59 6,193 37 5,177 Baltimore Baltimore Area 73 6,215 55 5,528 Baltimore BWI Airport/Annapolis 71 9,824 65 9,205 MD Area West/Hagerstown 44 3,468 30 2,768 MD Area Chesapeake/Ocean City 166 13,903 58 6,698 Washington DC Frederick/Rockville 55 7,668 49 7,494 Washington DC Bethesda/College Park 40 5,796 38 5,731 Washington DC MD South/East 76 9,967 59 9,125
36. Maryland Tracts - Room Supply % Change July 2009 YTD 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
37. Maryland Tracts - Room Demand % Change July 2009 YTD 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
38. Maryland Tracts – Occupancy Percent Change July 2009 YTD 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
39. Maryland Tracts – ADR Percent Change July 2009 YTD 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
40. Maryland Tracts – RevPAR Percent Change July 2009 YTD 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
41. Maryland Counties – RevPAR % Change July 2009 YTD 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
42. Maryland Smaller Cities – RevPAR % Change July 2009 YTD 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
43. Maryland Hotel Census Statistics by Brand July 2009 YTD Chain Census Props Census Rooms Sample Props Sample Rooms Marriott 10 3823 10 3823 Holiday Inn 15 3038 15 3038 Comfort Inn 27 2925 27 2925 Courtyard 18 2649 17 2558 Hampton Inn 22 2555 22 2555 Hilton 8 2464 8 2464 Sheraton Hotel 8 2376 8 2376 Days Inn 22 2270 22 2270 Best Western 18 2059 13 1600 Gaylord Entertainment 1 2000 1 2000 Residence Inn 15 1861 15 1861 Holiday Inn Express Hotel 18 1675 18 1675 Hilton Garden Inn 11 1519 11 1519 Quality Inn 12 1515 12 1515 Red Roof Inn 11 1312 11 1312 Hyatt 3 1278 3 1278
44. Maryland Hotel Census Statistics by Scale July 2009 YTD 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc. Scale Census Props Census Rooms Sample Props Sample Rooms Luxury Chains 2 411 2 411 Upper Upscale Chains 43 14990 43 14990 Upscale Chains 79 11214 78 11123 Midscale W/ F&B Chains 61 9020 56 8561 Midscale W/O F&B Chains 135 13848 135 13848 Economy Chains 114 10106 106 9685 Independents 210 13863 18 2890
85. Total US - Consecutive Quarterly Declines Key Indicators during prior downturns 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc. 1990/ 1991 2001/ 2002 Current (2008-9) Estimate 2008-10 Demand 3 5 6 9 Occupancy 7 6 7 11 ADR 0 5 3 9? RevPAR 5 5 4 9 Room Revenue 2 5 4 7
86. Total US - Active Development Pipeline - Rooms Change From Last Year Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline Phase July 2009 July 2008 Difference % Change In Construction 141,957 199,892 -57,935 -29.0% Final Planning 71,116 100,201 -29,085 -29.0% Planning 274,758 360,835 -86,077 -23.9% Active Pipeline 487,831 660,928 -173,097 -26.2% Pre-Planning 118,378 146,131 -27,753 -19.0% Total 606,209 807,059 -200,850 -24.9%
87. Total US - Room Supply Percent Change January 2003 – June 2009 / July – December Forecast July: 3.2 vs. 3.1 to December: 2.6
88. Total US - Room Demand Percent Change January 2003 – June 2009 / July – December Forecast
89. Total US – Annual Supply/Demand % Change 2003 – 2010 Projected
90. Total US - Occupancy Percent Change Jan 2003 – June 2009 / July – December Forecast
91. Total US – Annual Occupancy Percent Change 2003 – 2010P 20 Year Average: -0.6%
92. Total US – Annual Absolute Occupancy 2003 – 2010P
93. Total US - Room Rate Percent Change Jan 2003 – June 2009 / July – December Forecast
94. Total US – Annual ADR Percent Change 2003 – 2010P 20 Year Average: 3.5%
95. Total US – Annual Absolute Average Daily Rate 2003 – 2010P
96. Total US - RevPAR Percent Change Jan 2003 – June 2009 / July – December Forecast
97. Total US - Annual RevPAR Percent Change 2003 – 2010P 20 Year Average: 2.9%
98. Total US - Annual Absolute RevPAR 2003 – 2010P
99. Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Full Year 2009 2010 Forecast
100.
101. [email_address] 615-824-8664 ext. 3315 www.strglobal.com Presentation Available on www.hotelnewsnow.com “Industry Presentations”
102. Total US - RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to July 2009 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc. -10.5% -13.4%
103. Total US - Group & Transient ADR % Change Running 28 Day - January 31, 2008 – August 15, 2009 Transient ADR falling sharper
104. Total US - Group & Transient Absolute ADR Running 28 Day - January 31, 2008 – August 15, 2009 Group ADR surpasses Transient ADR
105. Top 25 Markets vs. Rest of US - Quarterly RevPar % Change 1 st Quarter 2007 – 2 nd Quarter 2009 Top 25 rise faster but also fall farther
106. Top 25 Markets - RevPAR Percent Change June 2009 YTD Most of Top 25 markets below US average
107. Total US - Occupancy Percent Change Number of Properties - June 2009 YTD Industry average: - 10.9
108. Total United States ADR Percent Change Number of Properties - June 2009 YTD Industry average: - 8.7
109. Total US - Hotel Rooms Sold vs. ADR Change Quarterly Change – 1988 to Q4 2009E
110. If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year… Total US Room Rates Actual vs. Inflation Adjusted 2000 – 2010E
111. Total United States Supply, Demand & Occupancy Forecast Q3 2009 – Q4 2010 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
112. Total United States ADR, RevPar and Room Revenue Forecast Q3 2009 – Q4 2010 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
113.
Editor's Notes
Source: Global performance review – inconsistent sample UK – (£) US, MEA, ASIA Pacific – ($) Europe (€) Inconsistent sample