Keynote by Brian Vad Mathiesen, Aalborg University Kolding/Online, November 10th 2020, International Conference on Green Digitalization

1. Roadmap for achieving the 70% 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target in Denmark
Keynote, INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON GREEN DIGITALIZATION
Brian Vad Mathiesen, Aalborg University
Kolding/Online, November 10th 2020
@BrianVad

2. 2019 New Government and agreement:
70% reductions in
Greenhouse gases by 2030
Climate Law and Action plan:
1. Energy savings in among others public buildings
2. National Strategy for Sustainable buildings
3. Strategy for electrification of transport, industry and society in general
4. More funds for green research and demonstration projects
5. Assessment of Danish and North Sea countries mutual expansion of offshore
wind
6. Investigation of energy island of 10 GW wind before 2030
7. Support afforestation (new forest)
8. Climate adoption via coordination of coastal protection

3. The Challenge
From 1990: 22% reduction in the energy sector, 17% in
agriculture, but 13% more in transport. Status 2018: ~52 mill. ton
CO2-eq, Reduction pr year ~0,8 mill. ton CO2-eq pr year
2030 70% target:
- From 70,8 to 21,2 mill. ton CO2-eq (excl. International
aviation)
- Reduction pr year ~3 mill. ton CO2-eq from 2020 (use a 20
mill. ton CO2-eq target)
2050 net zero target:
- Reduction pr year ~1,1 mill. ton CO2-eq from 2030
Basisfremskrivning 2019, ENS
70% mål

4. 4
Biomass
PV
Windpower
33 + 150 +
1040 PJ
~200 PJ 23 PJ >20 PJ >20 PJ ~13 PJ ~15 PJ (30-50 PJ)
Geothermal
Selected Danish renewable energy potentials etc.
Current primary energy supply
Solar thermal Datacentres
Industrial excess
heat Heat Pumps

5. IDAs Energiplan 2030 and
IDAs Energivision 2050

6. Smart Energy Systems
www.energyplan.eu/smartenergysystems/

7. IDAs Klimasvar: Towards 2045
Achieving the 70 per cent target with a CO2-reduction in 2030 in line with
achieving 100 per cent renewable energy and climate neutrality in 2045.
This means:
• in 2030 the choice of technologies should enable the next steps after 2030.
• Towards 2030 we need to focus on developing technologies we need after
2030 even though they are needed to a lesser extent in 2030.

8. IDAs Klimasvar: A part of Europe
The Danish way of achieving the 70 per cent reduction target in a manor where other countries
in Europe and globally can achieve the same long term targets.
This means:
• Denmark should include the Danish share of international aviation and shipping
even though it is not included yet in the UN way of calculating the Danish CO2
emissions.
• Denmark should not exceed our share of sustainable use of biomass in the world.
• Denmark should make our contribution in terms of flexibility and reserve capacity
to integrate wind and solar into the European electricity supply.

11. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Denmark 2020 2030 IDA Climate
Response
2030 IDA Climate
Response
prioritized
CO2 emissions (Mt/year)
including international shipping and aviation
International aviation
International shipping
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
CO2 emissions in the
UN accounting…
0
10
20
30
40
Denmark 2020 2030 IDA Climate
Response
CO2 emssions (Mt/year)
(UN accounting)
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Denmark 2020 2030 IDA Climate
Response
2030 IDA Climate
Response
prioritized
CO2 emssions (Mt/year)
(Cradle-to-gate in a 100 year time horizon)
Imported woodchips
Woodchips
Straw
Waste
Biogas
Natural Gas
Oil

12. 2020

13. 2030

14. Energi System Analyse Model
CHP
Boiler
Electro-
lyser
Heat
pump and
electric
boiler
PP
RES
electricity
Fuel
RES heat
Hydro water
Hydro
storage
Hydro
power plant
H2 storage
Electricity
storage
system
Import/
Export
fixed and
variable
Electricity
demand
Cooling
device
Cooling
demand
Transport
demand
Process
heat
demand
Industry
Cars
Heat
storage
Heat
demand
www.EnergyPLAN.eu

15. SmartEnergy Systems:
Hourlymodellingof all smartgrids to identify
synergies…andinfluenceof differenttypesof energy
storage.

16. Four sectors and measures
Four sectors and measures

17. Energy Efficiency
IDAs Klimasvar meets EU's energy efficiency directive (EED):
• Heat Savings - 2,2 PJ/year.
• Electricity savings - 1 PJ/year.
• Energy savings in industry - 2,4 PJ/year.
• Conversion to district heating and individual heat pumps - 0,24 PJ/year.
• Less person km and flights (compared to high growth) - 0,8 PJ/year.
Larger than 4,96 PJ/year – the Danish responsibility – Savings has to be a
consequence of new concrete measures.

18. Sector integration
IDAs Klimasvar provides synergies and flexibility as a result of sector
integration including the following investments in energy conversion and
storage capacity:
Integration and storage of renewable energy:
• Large thermal energy storages 112 GWh.
• Exploitation of existing natural caverns and new hydrogen storages 40 GWh.
• Over capacity of electrolyses plants ~ 50 per cent utilisation.
• Utilisation of seasonal dependent over capacity of large scale heat pumps and electric boilers 700 MW.
• Utilisation of batteries in electric vehicles (14 GWh) via smart meters.
• Flexible electricity demand (mainly within one day) ~2,5 TWh

19. Transport, renewable energy and biomass
 100% renewable energy in transport is possible
 Growth in mobility is possible
 More in public transport, less growth in road transport
 Modal shift to public transport and direct electricity
 Indirect electricity in EVs and busses etc.
 Electrofuels (gases and liquids) to heavy duty transport (aviation, trucks, navigation)
 Math and physics rules out biodiesel, bioethanol and biogas – only usable in small niches
of transport
Electrolyser1
Biomass
(74.7 PJ)
Electricity
(52.7 PJ)
Methanol/DME
(100 PJ2
)
H2
(38.4 PJ)
Gasifier Chemical
Synthesis
Hydrogenation
2.9 Mt
Syngas
Resource Conversion Process││ │ ││ Transport Demand
87 Gpkm
53 Gtkm
Transport Fuel
OR
H2
O
(3.8 Mt)
0.9 Mt
MET HANOL
DME OR
MET HAN ?

20. Biomass
IDAs Climate Response reduces biomass consumptions from
29 to 26 GJ/capita.
IDAs Climate Response focus on:
• Denmark to reduce the use of biomass
• Denmark to use sustainable biomass with low CO2 emissions
• Denmark to prepare for a long term target of not exceeding the
Danish share of sustainable biomass use in the World.

21. • Biomass use beyond residual ressources has
potentially has an effect on the climate
• Denmark has more ressource pr. capita than other
countries
• The Danish model on biomass should remain a Danish
model
21
Challenges in biomass
consumption in Denmark and EU
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
IDA's Energy
Vision 2050
CEESA 2050 Elbertsen et al.
(2012)
Gylling et al.
(2012)
L. Hamelin et al.
(2019)
BioBoost Smart Energy
Europe
PRIMES / -
1.5TECH
PRIMES - 1.5LIFE PRIMES -
1.5LIFE-LB
JRC-EU-TIMES
Model
Denmark EU27 (not including Croatia) and
Switzerland
EU28 EU28 + Iceland,
Norway,
Switzerland, and
Western Balkan
Countries
[GJ/cap]
Publication and geography
Bioenergy potentialsper capita projected in different publications and
current bioenergy consumption
Bioenergy potential per capita (GJ/cap) Current consumption in Denmark (2018)
Biomass
Today in DK (175 PJ) 30 GJ/capita
Latest EU research (conservative) (8500 PJ) 17 GJ/capita
EU 2050 scenarioer (A Clean Planet for all) 15-21 GJ/capita
IDA 100% RE DK in 2050 (200 PJ) 30 GJ/capita
Danish Energy Authority scenarios from 2014 35-45 GJ/capita

22. Renewable energy
IDAs Klimasvar expands the level of renewable energy:
• Solar thermal district heating 6-7 PJ.
• Solar thermal as supplement on individuelle buildings 8-9 PJ.
• 500 MW geothermal for district heating 13-14 PJ.
• Photovoltaic on large roofs from 1.000 MW to 5.000 MW in 2030.
• Onshore wind power from 4.200 MW to at least 4.800 i 2030.
• Offshore wind power from 2.000 MW to 6.630 in 2030.
• 132 MW Wave power (with onshore wind power as alternative).

23. Positives
•A large variety of
scenarios
•Two net zero emission
scenario
•More details within
buildings and industry
Scenario problems
•Very high ambition in all
scenarios with regards
to energy efficiency in
buildings
•No district heating
implemented
•Politically driven
scenarios for gas
•Claim to make ”optimal
systems”
Tool problems
•5 year time steps (until
2070 – focus on 2050)
•partial equilibrium
modelling system that
simulates an energy
market
•Investment
optimisation (with limits
e.g. wind and nuclear)
•No clear distinction
between
private/business
economy and socio-
economy.
New scenarios: Target of net zero emissions in Europe?

24. Scenarios for EU2050
- with GHG reductions driven by decarbonised
energy carriers:
- Electricity
- Hydrogren
- Power 2 X
- with demand driven GHG reductions:
- Energy efficiency
- Circular economy
- combination
- Combo (below 2°C)
- net zero GHG emissions (COMBO+)
- Negative Emissions Technologies
- Sustainable Lifestyles

25. Energy Storages
It seems: About 100 TWh batteries in all scenarios
- annual costs ~ 900 billion EURO

26. Share of energy carriers in final
energy consumption

27. www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
Buildings in the Energy Union in 2050
Highlights
• Gas for heating
dominates
• Stagnating district
heating
• High ambition on EE in
buildings due to tool)
• Higher costs than today
TWh
Total heat
demand
Heat
demand
heat pumps
Total
electricity
demand
Baseline 2207,1 863,1 1537,3
COMBO 1789,1 883,7 1271,4
1,5 TECH 1620,7 806,2 1127,7
1,5 LIFE 1488,2 712,3 1101,7

28. Total system costs

29. Total costs and
changes in costs

30. Known
technologies
Well-known technologies which are vital for achieving the 70 % goal
• Compliance with building regulations for new and existing buildings
• Energy renovation of existing buildings
• Utilization of surplus heat from industry
• Expansion of district cooling with cold thermal storage and use of groundwater cooling
• Expansion of district heating areas
• Replacement of oil and natural gas boilers with district heating and individual heat pumps
• Onshore and offshore wind turbines
• PV cells primarily installed on large roofs in the industry around large cities or in parking lots, etc.
• Preservation of decentralized gas-fired CHP plants and construction of new gas-fired CHP plants
• Expansion of biogas for industry and CHP plants
• Biomass; wood, waste, biogas, etc. for CHP and power plants and wood chips, straw for district heating boilers
• Solar thermal for district heating and individual heating
• Expansion of public transport, bicycle infrastructure, use of urban planning
• Expansion of EVs and plug-in hybrid cars, vans and buses on battery operation or plug-in hybrid, partial
electrification of heavy transport (trucks, ferries, power cables at ports, electrification of motorcycles and small
vehicles as well as special vehicles)
• Intelligent integration of wind and solar in the electricity grid, including location in the existing electricity grid close
to large existing consumption centers and new large consumption centers, in order to avoid unnecessary
expansion of the electricity grid

31. Partly known
technologies
Partly well-known, partly new technologies, which we must develop and
which will also become important in 2030
• Large heat pumps in district heating in conjunction with industrial surplus heat,
district cooling and ambient heat from e.g. drainage water and wastewater, etc.
• Large seasonal heat storages, especially in the district heating supply
• Geothermal energy
• Conversion to 4th generation low temperature district heating
• Utilization of surplus heat from data centers and electrolysis plants for district heating
• Intensive energy efficiency in industry
• Replacement of coal and oil with electricity and biomass in industry
• Electrolysis plants with flexible operation in relation to electricity from renewable
energy sources and electricity grid load (full load time of approximately 50 per cent)
• Large hydrogen storages which are used flexibly in interaction with electrolysis plants and electrofuel
production
• Integrated electrofuel production with carbon capture, CO2 storage and chemical synthesis (DME,
Methanol, Ammonia)
• Flexible operation of existing biomass-fired CHP plants
• Road pricing systems with GPS, control functions and charging
• Large-scale intelligent charging of EVs

32. New technologies that need development
New technologies we need to develop now because we need to use them after 2030
• E-roads for trucks with partial battery operation
• More efficient electrolysis plants (SOEC)
• Further development of large-scale electrolysis plants and integrated solutions for electrofuel
production, including carbon capture and chemical synthesis
• Large-scale electrolysis and electrofuels incl. carbon capture (important technology for both CCU
and CCS)
• Large-scale thermal gasification of biomass, pyrolysis and HTL and possibly other technologies
capable of converting biomass to gas or liquid fuels
• Large-scale trials with straw in biogas plants
• Intense upscaling of electrofuel production for aircrafts
• Wave power (however with wind turbines as an alternative)

33. Thank you for your attention – Questions?
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Roadmap for achieving the 70% 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target in Denmark
- Keynote, INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON GREEN DIGITALIZATION
Brian Vad Mathiesen, Aalborg University
Kolding/Online, November 11th 2020
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
www.4DH.euwww.energyplan.eu/smartenergysystems/
www.brianvad.eu
www.energyplan.eu/SmartEnergyEurope
https://ida.dk/om-ida/temaer/klimasvar
www.heatroadmap.eu