1. ‘ICT and Sustainable Cities’
ICT Green and Connected Cities Conference
Lyons 26th November
CHARLES SECRETT
ADVISOR ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SUSTAINABILITY
cmsecrett@btinternet.com
00-44-(0)7977016119

2. The scale of the problem: IPCC 1.1 - 6.4C rise
2100
Stern Review:
Report on the
Economics of
Climate Change
2006

3. IPCC 2007: Surface warming 2080 – ‘B.A.U.’ scenario

4. Map of policy-relevant tipping elements in climate
system (updated from ref.: Lenton, Timothy M. et al. (2008) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105, 1786-1793)
Copyright ©2008 by the National Academy of Sciences

6. European 2003 Summer Temperatures: normal by
2040s, cool by 2060s
2060s
observations
Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C
HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)
2040s
2003

7. Accelerated Greenland Melt-Down – all
goes = 5 metre sea-level rise … by
when?
Current volume loss: 2.2 x 1011 m3/yr ≈
Has doubled over past decade

8. 100th Thames Barrier Closure

9. 5 metre sea-level rise …

10. TRANSFORMATION
• PLANET
• SOCIETY
• MARKETS
• COMPANIES
• HOUSEHOLDS
• GOVERNMENT

11. End goals: climate stabilisation at 450 C02 p.p.m. by 2050
1. Zero emissions power sector
2. Energy efficiency maximisation in buildings,
machinery and appliances
3. Very low/zero emissions road transport
4. Aviation and shipping greatly reduced
emissions (inclusion rapidly in EU ETS)
5. Large-scale rollout of decentralised renewable
energy generation (CHCP; micro-renewables)
6. Low emissions from land-use (agriculture and
forestry globally)
7. Some emissions from heavy industry (e.g.
cement; mining; metals production)

12. REQUIREMENTS
• MASSIVE AND RAPID CO2
REDUCTIONS – 60% BY 2025 AND 90%
BY 2050 MINIMUM
• DEMATERIALISATION AND FACTOR 10
RESOURCE USE EFFICIENCY GAINS
• WEALTH OPPORTUNITIES FOR POOR
• VISIONARY AND HONEST POLITICAL
LEADERSHIP
• CIVIL SOCIETY PARTICIPATION AND
INVOLVEMENT – A DEMOCRATIC 2.0
WORLD

13. Simple, beneficial emission cuts – why doesn’t
everyone do?!
Simple behavioural Major reductions from
If all light bulbs were
change by all home insulation and
energy efficient,
Londoners could help solve fuel-
London would save a
reduce CO2 poverty in 4-500,000
further 575,000 tonnes
emissions by 2.3 homes in London
of CO2 and £139
million tonnes and million per year (2006
cut fuel bills prices)

14. Changing carbon-heavy behaviour means
changing …
• Attitudes
• Values
• Beliefs
• AND … MARKETS

15. The biggest block to behaviour change …
As long as it is cheap, convenient
and legal to waste carbon and
natural resources, then that is what
the great majority of individuals,
households and companies will do
…
at work, home and play.

16. Enabling technologies for transformative
change
(from David Hone, Group Climate Change : Adviser, Shell International. CPI CLP May 2008)

17. Cities are responsible for 75% of the world’s
CO2 emissions and 75% of resource use

18. ICT/technology has huge role to play for
companies and cities …
“While the ICT sector plans to significantly
step up the energy efficiency of its
products and services, ICT’s largest
influence will be by enabling energy
efficiencies in other sectors, an
opportunity that could deliver carbon
savings five times larger than the total
emissions from the entire ICT sector in
2020.”
‘SMART 2020 – enabling the low carbon economy in the
information age’
The Climate Group, London, 2008
http://www.theclimategroup.org/assets/resources/publications/Smart2020Report_lo_res.pdf

19. I.C.T. - Learning to be S.M.A.R.T.
“The challenge of climate change
presents an opportunity for ICT to:
• Standardise (S) how energy
consumption and emissions
information can be traced across
different processes beyond the ICT
sector’s own products and services
• It can monitor (M) energy consumption
and emissions across the economy in
real time, providing the data needed to
optimise for energy efficiency
• Network tools can be developed that
allow accountability (A) for energy
consumption and emissions alongside
other key business priorities
• This information can be used to
rethink (R) how we should live, learn,
play and work in a low carbon
economy, initially by optimising
efficiency, but also by providing viable
low cost alternatives to high carbon
activities. Although isolated efficiency
gains do have an impact, ultimately it
will be a platform – or a set of
technologies and architectures –
working coherently together, that will
have the greatest impact
• It is through this enabling platform that
transformation (T) of the economy will
occur, when standardisation,
monitoring, accounting, optimisation
and the business models that drive
low carbon alternatives can be
developed and diffused at scale across
all sectors of the economy. “
19

20. Summary findings: ‘SMART 2020’ – The Climate
Group
MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
• Smart motor systems: A review of manufacturing in China has
identified that without optimisation, 10% of China’s emissions (2% of
global emissions) in 2020 will come from China’s motor systems alone
and to improve industrial efficiency even by 10% would deliver up to 200
million tonnes (Mt) CO2e savings. Applied globally, optimised motors
and industrial automation would reduce 0.97 GtCO2e in 2020, worth
euro 68 billion ($107.2 billion)
• Smart logistics: Through a host of efficiencies in transport and storage,
smart logistics in Europe could deliver fuel, electricity and heating
savings of 225 MtCO2e. The global emissions savings from smart
logistics in 2020 would reach 1.52 GtCO2e, with energy savings
worth euro 280 billion ($441.7 billion)
• Smart buildings: A closer look at buildings in North America indicates
that better building design, management and automation could save
15% of North America’s buildings emissions. Globally, smart buildings
technologies would enable 1.68 GtCO2e of emissions savings,
worth euro 216 billion ($340.8 billion)
• Smart grids: Reducing T&D losses in India’s power sector by 30% is
possible through better monitoring and management of electricity grids,
first with smart meters and then by integrating more advanced ICTs into
the so-called energy internet. Smart grid technologies were the
largest opportunity found in the study and could globally reduce
2.03 GtCO2e , worth euro 79 billion ($124.6 billion)

21. Sector emission savings from ICT – from ‘SMART 2020’

22. ICT INTEGRATED SYSTEMS MODELLING
UK Tyndall Centre: Urban Integrated Assessment Facility
Further information Tyndall Centre
Briefing Note 27 or
richard.dawson@newcastle.ac.uk
or jim.hall@newcastle.ac.uk

23. Draw up a comprehensive action plan:
e.g. London’s ‘Action Today to Protect Tomorrow:
The Mayor’s Climate Change Action Plan’

24. London CO2 emissions (excluding aviation =
+ 23 m.t. CO2) 2006
Domestic
38%
Ground Based
22%
Transport
7%
33%
Industrial
Commercial
and public
sector
44 mt CO2

25. London Climate Change Action Plan -
Required CO2 reductions
Profile of national targets and
Today
50
aspirations (against 1990)
45.1m 44.3m
Proposed London reductions to
achieve 450ppm stabilisation and
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (MtCO2)
60% by 2025 and 90% by 2050
40
20% targets
15% 25%
10 year target
30%
(2016)
30
= 20%
600 million
Target for London = 60%
20 tonnes CO2
60%
to 2025
(vs 2000)
10
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

26. Programmes to help Londoners + businesses
change behaviour and reduce emissions
1. Green Homes Programme
2. Green Organisations Programme
3. Green Energy Programme
4. Green Transport Programme

27. Overall CO2 savings by sector and measure
Maximum saving possible
Million tonnes of CO2
Achievable savings through Mayor’s
Action Plan w/ no national action
*
*
* *
*
*
*
*
* *
*
*
* *
* * * *
*
*
*
* * *
*
Lighting and appliances
Lighting and appliances
*
*
Behavioural change
Thermal efficiency
*
*
Thermal efficiency
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
New Build Domestic Commercial Supply Transport
* Public transport, i.e., underground, buses & coaches, national rail

28. A One Stop Shop – The Green Homes Service
GREEN HOMES PROGRAMME £7m next year
INCREASE PROVIDE EXECUTE/ DEVELOP
1 2 3
AWARENESS INFORMATION THE SUPPLY CHAIN
• Not aware how their homes • Not sure what they should • Can’t overcome the inertia/hassle
contribute to CO2, or that do about it, or who they factor, don’t have the funds,
BARRIER
they can do anything about should get to help them inadequate supply of skilled
it with it tradesman to perform the work
1. Marketing 2. Advice service 3. Concierge service (owner
and (all consumer occupiers, able-to-pay)
Initiative
behavioural segments) 4. Social housing and fuel
change poor programme (non able
- Web portal
campaigns to pay/fuel poor)
(all 5. Skills training (all sectors)
– Phone
consumer 6. House Purchase and
– Face to
segments) refurbishment initiative
Face
(owner occupier, able to pay
counters
7. Green Landlord initiative
(IKEA
(privately rented)
partner?)
8. Influencing government
– Promotions (lobbying programme)
with private
sector

29. www.londonclimatechange.co.uk/greenhomes

30. www.londonclimatechange.co.uk/greenorganisations

31. Congestion charges and behaviour change – carbon pricing works

32. Environmental gains: emissions reductions/modal shift
1. 13% NOx and 15% PM10 emission reductions in the
charging zone
2. 16% less CO2 emissions
3. 20% savings in fuel consumption
4. Net revenues of £123 million in 2006/7 for ‘green’
public transport schemes
5. 4% shift from cars to public transport, cycling and
walking – only global city to have achieved such a
modal shift

33. Cashless carbon friendly travel

34. Camera enforcement – no free riders!

35. Thousands of fixed/mobile cameras – democracy in action?

36. USING IT SYSTEMS To Protect Health - Walkit.com + airTEXT
real time empowering people over air pollution and health issues
Central London
Boroughs
• Inclusion of air quality
information on walkit.com
• Enable users to select the
least polluted route
Consortium of London
Boroughs & GLA
www.airtext.info
• Free phone alerts and health
advice when air pollution is
predicted to be moderate or
high.
• Launched London-wide in
March 2007
• 80% of users found airTEXT
helped them manage their
symptoms better & reduce their
exposure to air pollution

37. The Future? Possible options for transport carbon
pricing and incentives for green travel using IT systems
• Oyster – polling shows a very positive public response. Current
discounts include FREE travel for kids in school and for Old Age
Pensioners
• Possibilities to add other carbon-cutting incentives to travel during
less busy periods, and integrate with the congestion charge and road
pricing, in order to optimise the use of the combined public transport
and road networks throughout the day. For example:
1. for people who travel off-peak (not during the rush hours) or if you
decide to work from home one or more days a week. ITC allows this
type of finely targeted discounting
2. tie in with other types of commercial operation – such as purchases of
zero-low carbon technologies and home products (e.g. micro-
renewables like solar or hybrid or hydrogen fuel-cell car purchases)
which may count as reward points for even lower fares.
3. Offer vouchers for buying a bicycle or purchasing green household
products
4. For cyclists who have never owned a car may provide cash in their
pockets

38. Paradigm shifts – hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell or
electric?
Nissan Pivo
electric prototype
The batteries of a zero-emission
vehicle need three things in place in
for optimum functionality: charging
spots, battery switching stations (100
miles +), and software that automates
the experience.
‘E-mobility Germany’
Smartcar/Daimler
RWE electricity
charging

39. Project Better Place - $550 month service
charge

40. EU-Middle East–North Africa Renewables
Super-grid
Sketch of possible infrastructure for a sustainable supply of power
http://www.desertec.org/downloads/summary_en.pdf

41. Summary: Transformational imperatives to change carbon-
heavy behaviours
1. Enabling policy, regulatory and tax framework of
‘carrots and sticks’ for companies and citizens to
reward zero-low carbon use and penalise high
carbon use
2. Long-term strategy with best science targets and
policy drivers to transform markets to value zero/low
carbon
3. Cheaper, more convenient and integrated low carbon
solutions (including procurement drivers)
4. Exemplar zero-low carbon/waste developments and
projects
5. Comprehensive information, advice and audit
programmes for households and companies
6. Verifiable, coordinated and effective international action
7. Partnerships between sectors – public, private,
domestic, voluntary
8. Integrated changes across economic sectors –
financial, energy, transport, waste, buildings
9. Leadership – political, professional, personal.

42. CHALLENGE = TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE
• A broad range of existing and new
(disruptive) technologies and green infra-
structure must be fully and rapidly
deployed within all sectors of society
• A holistic policy framework needed to
hasten the technology pathways –
integrated regulations, taxation, planning.
Incentives, as well as penalties, are vital
• Single economy policies will not work –
must be global cooperation and full
implementation of UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change