Climate Adaptation Pathways and Options in Agriculture

AKADEMIYA2063
AKADEMIYA2063AKADEMIYA2063
Climate Adaptation Pathways and Options in
Agriculture
www.akademiya2063.org
Getaw Tadesse (PhD)
Director, Department of Operational Support, AKADEMIYA2063
Presentation for the Board Seminar, September 26, 2023.
Kigali, Rwanda
Introduction
www.akademiya2063.org
• While climate change is global, its
impact is very localized and differs
across countries and sectors
• We conducted adaptation related
studies in 7 African countries
Preliminary
 Risk and vulnerability assessment
 Economic impacts of climate change / loss and damage
 Adaption pathways and best practices
 Investment options for climate adaptation
• Effectiveness of adaptation actions
 Integrated M& E systems for tracking adaptation actions
Analytical issues in climate adaptation
www.akademiya2063.org
• Vulnerability = (Exposure + Sensitivity +Adaptive incapacity)/3
• Impact/Risk = (Exposure +Sensitivity )/2
• Two types of vulnerability
• Spatial vulnerability : extent of vulnerability at sub-national or community
level, assuming vulnerability is covariate
• For targeting community level interventions
• Household vulnerability : the number of households vulnerable in the
community ( assuming vulnerability is idiosyncratic )..
• For targeting household interventions
• Resilience = 1-vub
Risk , vulnerability and resilience assessment
www.akademiya2063.org
Spatial Risk and Vulnerability in
Nigeria and Senegal
www.akademiya2063.org
Household Vulnerability in Senegal
www.akademiya2063.org
0.57
0.49
0.37
0.48
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
ADAPTIVE INCAPACITY
SENSITIVITY
EXPOSURE
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY INDEX
Senegal
By component
Household vulnerability in Rwanda
www.akademiya2063.org
Household climate change vulnerability by district for
Rwanda in 2021
0.61
0.29
0.38
0.43
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
ADAPTIVE INCAPACITY
SENSITIVITY
EXPOSURE
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY INDEX
Rwanda
By component
Economic impacts of climate change
Results of ex-ante CGE simulations
www.akademiya2063.org
Impact on Agriculture and GDP
Economic indicators
Impacts of Climate change in %
Kenya Mali Nigeria Senegal
Annual changes in agricultural productivity -9.7 -13.3 -9.7 -11.7
Annual changes in agricultural value added -10.7 -15.0 -9.6 -10.6
GDP change compared to BaU -8.3 -8.9 -4.2 -4.2
Economic impacts of climate change
www.akademiya2063.org
Mali
Impact on value-added in non-ag sectors
Kenya
Economic impacts of climate change
www.akademiya2063.org
Impact on value-added in non-ag sectors
-8.6
-6.0
-4.7
-3.8
-3.8
-3.2
-3.1
-3.1
-3.1
-2.5
-2.5
-2.3
-2.2
-2.1
-2.1
-2.0
-2.0
-1.7
-1.7
-0.9
-0.9
-0.7
-0.7
-0.2
0.6
2.6
Wood and paper products
Accommodationand food services
Public administration
Machinery, equipment andvehicles
Construction
Processed foods
Finance and insurance
Non-metal minerals
Beverage and tobacco
Industry sector
Chemicals and petroleum
Health and social work
Electricity, gas and steam
Mining
Education
Transportation andstorage
Metals and metal products
Business services
Water supply and sewage
Services sector
Information and communication
Other services
Real estate activities
Textiles, clothing andfootwear
Wholesale and retail trade
Other manufacturing
Nigeria
Economic impacts of climate change
www.akademiya2063.org
-5.4
-4.6 -4.6
LOW SKILLED MEDIUM
SKILLED
HIGH SKILLED
-6.8
-5.3
-6.3
LOW SKILLED MEDIUM
SKILLED
HIGH SKILLED
Effect on employment
-1.1
-2.5
-1.9
LOW SKILLED
LABOR
MEDIUM
SKILLED LABOR
HIGH SKILLED
LABOR
Mali
Kenya
Nigeria
Economic impacts of climate change
Results of ex-ante CGE simulations
www.akademiya2063.org
Impact on inequality and poverty
Economic indicators
Impacts of Climate change in %
Kenya Mali Nigeria Senegal
Gini index. compared to BaU 0.2 -0.5 0.3
National poverty compared to BaU 3.3 0.9 2.1 2.8
Extreme poverty compared to BaU 6.6 1.3 0.9 3.9
Adaptation to climate change
• Environmental costs: biodiversity,
• Social costs: health, conflict, migration
• Economic costs: productivity loss, reduction in
income /value-addition, employment loss,
asset loss
Adaptation
• Building resilience at household,
community and national levels
OR
• Minimizing of costs of climate Change
Adaptation pathways in AfoLU
Based on Review NAPs
www.akademiya2063.org
Six Pathways based on adaptation mechanisms and benefits
1. Ex-ante measures: preparedness
• Early warning system; food reserve; saving
2. Intensification :
• Improved crop varieties; inorganic fertilizer; irrigation,
3. Intensification + sequestration :
• Organic fertilizer, SWC, conservation agriculture; afforestation
4. Intensification + methane reduction:
• Expanding small livestock; improved rice cultivation
5. Income diversification:
• Agro-industrialization, livelihoods diversification, cash transfer
6. Risk transfer :
• Crop insurance; livestock insurance
Investment options for adaptation in AfoLU
Based on economywide simulations
www.akademiya2063.org
Share of cultivated area to be covered by adaptation options to compensate the
productivity loss
Mali (compared to 2018 level) Kenya (compared to 2019 level
Good practices for advancing adaptation
options
www.akademiya2063.org
• Decentralization of climate actions in Kenya
• Risk-based adaptation actions in Ethiopia
• A Unified Social Register system for social protection response in
Mali
• Agroecology prioritization in Nigeria with a focus in Savanna zones
• An integrated and digitalized environmental M&E system in
Rwanda –RBME/ ENR-MIS
Thank
You
1 sur 17

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Climate Adaptation Pathways and Options in Agriculture

  • 1. Climate Adaptation Pathways and Options in Agriculture www.akademiya2063.org Getaw Tadesse (PhD) Director, Department of Operational Support, AKADEMIYA2063 Presentation for the Board Seminar, September 26, 2023. Kigali, Rwanda
  • 2. Introduction www.akademiya2063.org • While climate change is global, its impact is very localized and differs across countries and sectors • We conducted adaptation related studies in 7 African countries Preliminary
  • 3.  Risk and vulnerability assessment  Economic impacts of climate change / loss and damage  Adaption pathways and best practices  Investment options for climate adaptation • Effectiveness of adaptation actions  Integrated M& E systems for tracking adaptation actions Analytical issues in climate adaptation www.akademiya2063.org
  • 4. • Vulnerability = (Exposure + Sensitivity +Adaptive incapacity)/3 • Impact/Risk = (Exposure +Sensitivity )/2 • Two types of vulnerability • Spatial vulnerability : extent of vulnerability at sub-national or community level, assuming vulnerability is covariate • For targeting community level interventions • Household vulnerability : the number of households vulnerable in the community ( assuming vulnerability is idiosyncratic ).. • For targeting household interventions • Resilience = 1-vub Risk , vulnerability and resilience assessment www.akademiya2063.org
  • 5. Spatial Risk and Vulnerability in Nigeria and Senegal www.akademiya2063.org
  • 6. Household Vulnerability in Senegal www.akademiya2063.org 0.57 0.49 0.37 0.48 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 ADAPTIVE INCAPACITY SENSITIVITY EXPOSURE CLIMATE VULNERABILITY INDEX Senegal By component
  • 7. Household vulnerability in Rwanda www.akademiya2063.org Household climate change vulnerability by district for Rwanda in 2021 0.61 0.29 0.38 0.43 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 ADAPTIVE INCAPACITY SENSITIVITY EXPOSURE CLIMATE VULNERABILITY INDEX Rwanda By component
  • 8. Economic impacts of climate change Results of ex-ante CGE simulations www.akademiya2063.org Impact on Agriculture and GDP Economic indicators Impacts of Climate change in % Kenya Mali Nigeria Senegal Annual changes in agricultural productivity -9.7 -13.3 -9.7 -11.7 Annual changes in agricultural value added -10.7 -15.0 -9.6 -10.6 GDP change compared to BaU -8.3 -8.9 -4.2 -4.2
  • 9. Economic impacts of climate change www.akademiya2063.org Mali Impact on value-added in non-ag sectors Kenya
  • 10. Economic impacts of climate change www.akademiya2063.org Impact on value-added in non-ag sectors -8.6 -6.0 -4.7 -3.8 -3.8 -3.2 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -2.5 -2.5 -2.3 -2.2 -2.1 -2.1 -2.0 -2.0 -1.7 -1.7 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 2.6 Wood and paper products Accommodationand food services Public administration Machinery, equipment andvehicles Construction Processed foods Finance and insurance Non-metal minerals Beverage and tobacco Industry sector Chemicals and petroleum Health and social work Electricity, gas and steam Mining Education Transportation andstorage Metals and metal products Business services Water supply and sewage Services sector Information and communication Other services Real estate activities Textiles, clothing andfootwear Wholesale and retail trade Other manufacturing Nigeria
  • 11. Economic impacts of climate change www.akademiya2063.org -5.4 -4.6 -4.6 LOW SKILLED MEDIUM SKILLED HIGH SKILLED -6.8 -5.3 -6.3 LOW SKILLED MEDIUM SKILLED HIGH SKILLED Effect on employment -1.1 -2.5 -1.9 LOW SKILLED LABOR MEDIUM SKILLED LABOR HIGH SKILLED LABOR Mali Kenya Nigeria
  • 12. Economic impacts of climate change Results of ex-ante CGE simulations www.akademiya2063.org Impact on inequality and poverty Economic indicators Impacts of Climate change in % Kenya Mali Nigeria Senegal Gini index. compared to BaU 0.2 -0.5 0.3 National poverty compared to BaU 3.3 0.9 2.1 2.8 Extreme poverty compared to BaU 6.6 1.3 0.9 3.9
  • 13. Adaptation to climate change • Environmental costs: biodiversity, • Social costs: health, conflict, migration • Economic costs: productivity loss, reduction in income /value-addition, employment loss, asset loss Adaptation • Building resilience at household, community and national levels OR • Minimizing of costs of climate Change
  • 14. Adaptation pathways in AfoLU Based on Review NAPs www.akademiya2063.org Six Pathways based on adaptation mechanisms and benefits 1. Ex-ante measures: preparedness • Early warning system; food reserve; saving 2. Intensification : • Improved crop varieties; inorganic fertilizer; irrigation, 3. Intensification + sequestration : • Organic fertilizer, SWC, conservation agriculture; afforestation 4. Intensification + methane reduction: • Expanding small livestock; improved rice cultivation 5. Income diversification: • Agro-industrialization, livelihoods diversification, cash transfer 6. Risk transfer : • Crop insurance; livestock insurance
  • 15. Investment options for adaptation in AfoLU Based on economywide simulations www.akademiya2063.org Share of cultivated area to be covered by adaptation options to compensate the productivity loss Mali (compared to 2018 level) Kenya (compared to 2019 level
  • 16. Good practices for advancing adaptation options www.akademiya2063.org • Decentralization of climate actions in Kenya • Risk-based adaptation actions in Ethiopia • A Unified Social Register system for social protection response in Mali • Agroecology prioritization in Nigeria with a focus in Savanna zones • An integrated and digitalized environmental M&E system in Rwanda –RBME/ ENR-MIS

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Three level objectives; the first long-term objective of the department and expected outcomes ; the second medium-term objective and activities ; the third short-term objectives and activities