The document provides an analysis of real estate market trends in San Francisco for October/November 2012. It discusses: 1) Inventory levels remaining near record lows, keeping upward pressure on home prices. Sales of single-family homes rose 5.2% month-over-month while condo sales increased 35.5% year-over-year. 2) Mortgage rates continuing their downward trend but declines were more muted, suggesting rates may remain stable in the near future. 3) Foreclosure activity declining substantially both month-over-month and year-over-year, indicating the market is stabilizing.

1. OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2012 Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
Inside This Issue
2800 Van Ness Avenue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 San Francisco, CA 94109
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 (415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3 DRE #01403882
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3
> MOMENTUM CHARTS .......................... 4
The Real Estate Report
local market trends Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Sep 12 Aug 12 Sep 11
SAN FRANCISCO Home Sales: 241 229 192
Median Price: $670,000 $ 768,000 $672,500
Price Surge in the Making? Av erage Price: $844,479 $1,001,306 $883,112
Sale/List Price Ratio: 104.5% 104.3% 100.3%
Followers of the market report know inventory in With the economy as strong as it is here, think
Day s on Market: 50 47 62
San Francisco has been at or near record lows for Silicon Valley North setting up shop south of
(Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
the past year. Market, demand for homes is strong.
Sep 12 Aug 12 Sep 11
Inventory, or lack thereof, will be the determining With only a two months supply of properties on the Condo Sales: 248 298 183
factor in appreciation. market, where will new inventory come from?
Median Price: $705,000 $ 730,000 $598,199
San Francisco Price Differences There is no “massive shadow inventory”. Banks Av erage Price: $828,376 $ 813,011 $686,094
from January & Peak & Trough only own about one months worth of inventory. Sale/List Price Ratio: 101.0% 101.1% 98.1%
Hom es: detached Day s on Market: 50 54 83
YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough The only other explanation for low inventory is
3-month 17% -21% 20% Jun-07 Feb-12 homeowners who are underwater. Yet, underwater The median price for homes dipped 0.4% year-
homeowners account for less than 10% of all over-year. There are two times a year when prices
12-month 4% -20% 5% Apr-08 Mar-12
homes with mortgages in the city. historically dip, in good markets or bad. The first is
Hom es: attached
3-month 15% -9% 15% Jul-08 Jan-12 And, as you know, there is very little land for in January. The second is in August/September.
development in the city.
12-month 7% -10% 7% Aug-08 Jan-12 SALES MOMENTUM…
This has had a salubrious effect on prices. The Unless there’s a massive surge of retirees moving for homes rose one point to +9.3. For condos,
median price for single-family, re-sale homes is up to Palm Springs, low inventory is here to stay. sales momentum gained 2.4 points to +14.3.
17% year-to-date, while the median price for SEPTEMBER MARKET STATISTICS PRICING MOMENTUM…
condos/townhomes is up 15%. Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 5.2% continued moving upward in September, rising 0.4
You can see in the table of price differences that from August, and were up 25.5% year-over-year. of a point to +1.9. The number for condos rose 1.7
San Francisco prices did not drop anywhere near points to +4.5.
Sales are being impacted by the lack of inventory.
as much as in other counties in the Bay Area. In
fact, market lows weren’t reached until the
There are only 537 homes for sale in the city. WE CALCULATE…
That’s only two and a half months of supply! momentum by using a 12-month moving average
beginning of this year!
to eliminate seasonality. By comparing
this year’s 12-month moving average
San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
to last year’s, we get a percentage
30.0% showing market momentum.
20.0% CONDO STATISTICS…
10.0% The median price for condos gained
17.9% year-over-year. Sales were up
0.0% 35.5% from last September. There are
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA S
-10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2
462 condos/lofts for sale, less than two
months supply.
-20.0%
This is an tough market for buyers. Be
-30.0%
calm and realistic. If you don’t know
-40.0% where to begin, give me a call.
© 2012 rereport.com
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009

2. The Real Estate Report
Mortgage Rate Outlook
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Oct 5, 2012 -- Even though some of the economic news climate... which in turn might temper growth. What to
was a little warmer this week, mortgage rates contin- cheer for? Broad-based economic gains which take
07-12
ued their downward drive. However, the decline this the Fed out of the picture, letting markets again dis-
04-12 week was more muted than last week's, and with the cover the true price of mortgages? Or to root for in-
01-12 cumulative benefit of the Fed's "QEternity" program terest rates to remain at artificially low levels, so that
10-11 of purchasing Mortgage-Backed Securities closing in more homeowners can profitably refinance, or to see
07-11
04-11 on a quarter-percentage point, we may not have all home prices reflated though the inducement of af-
01-11 that much room for rates yet to fall at the moment. fordability-driven sales?
10-10
07-10 HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker found the At some point, and for some time thereafter, we are
04-10 overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages likely to see both. How long such conditions -- a ris-
01-10
10-09 declined by just two basis points (0.02%) to 3.68%, a ing economy with rock-bottom rates -- might last is
07-09 new record low, while the FRMI's 15-year companion anyone's guess at this point. The Fed has pledged to
04-09 shed three basis points to land at a new record low of keep its foot on the gas even after the economy gets
01-09
10-08
an even 3%. FHA-backed 30-year FRMs downshifted more fully underway, but that strikes us as a nervous
07-08 by just a single basis basis point, as the most viable time in the markets, indeed.
04-08 option for credit- or equity-impaired borrowers trickled
01-08 It would appear that the decline in rates has sof-
to a new low of 3.28%. Finally, the overall average
10-07 tened, at least for the moment. When the Fed an-
07-07 rate for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs held fast at 2.70% for a
nounced its program, we reckoned it might have a
04-07 third consecutive week, remaining at a record low.
01-07 value of a quarter-percentage point on rates given
10-06 The Fed's program of manipulating mortgage prices current conditions, and we'll stand by that assess-
07-06 is a two-edged sword, or at least a Catch-22. The ment for at least the moment. That being the case,
04-06
01-06 Fed wants to see more economic growth, so it push- and since much of that expected decline is now in
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% es mortgage rates down to help foster growth. If the place, we'll call for rates to be about unchanged next
economy is improving or does start to improve, the week.
Fed will need to do less to achieve its goals, and
mortgage rates would tend to rise with the improving
San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
The chart above shows the Na- (3-month moving average — $000's)
tional monthly average for 30-
year fixed rate mortgages as $1,500 300
compiled by HSH.com. The av- $1,300 250
erage includes mortgages of all
sizes, including conforming, $1,100 200
"expanded conforming," and $900 150
jumbo.
$700 100
$500 50
$300 0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JAS
7 8 9 0 1 2
Ave Med Units © 2012 rereport.com
September Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Unit Change from last yearChange from last m onth
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $ 670,000 $ 844,479 241 50 104.5% -0.4% -4.4% 25.5% -12.8% -15.7% 5.2%
D1: Northw est $1,165,000 $1,386,682 11 42 102.9% 19.5% 10.5% -31.3% 8.4% -0.6% -35.3%
D2: Central West $ 855,000 $ 851,011 19 35 105.8% 24.8% 25.1% -48.6% 14.2% 7.4% -48.6%
D3: Southw est $ 635,000 $ 622,325 15 33 108.6% 33.7% 14.7% 15.4% 22.6% 7.7% -21.1%
D4: Tw in Peaks $ 870,000 $1,035,659 22 29 107.4% 1.8% 3.3% 0.0% -20.5% -11.8% -15.4%
D5: Central $1,390,000 $1,444,638 24 26 110.5% 3.0% 2.0% 4.3% -1.8% -17.2% -29.4%
D6: Central North $1,827,500 $1,827,500 2 52 93.8% n/a n/a n/a 31.0% 32.1% -33.3%
D7: North $2,550,000 $3,958,333 3 11 121.9% 4.1% 21.0% -40.0% -40.8% -6.4% -25.0%
D8: Northeast $1,765,000 $2,274,267 3 83 74.7% -49.4% -34.8% 50.0% 87.6% 141.7% 200.0%
D9: Central East $ 829,000 $ 876,000 15 43 104.7% 21.9% 11.5% -21.1% 5.6% 10.2% -50.0%
Page 2 D10: Southeast $ 490,000 $ 496,613 55 61 105.3% 8.6% 12.1% 0.0% -5.0% -2.3% -3.5%

3. San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA S
-10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2
-20.0%
-30.0%
© 2011 rereport.com
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
In San Francisco, notices of default, the first step in the investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
foreclosure process, plunged 71% in August from the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
year before. They were down 50% from July. back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO
inventory.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc-
tion, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before In August, cancellations were off 10.1% from July.
sale, also took a nose-dive in August: down 76% year- Year-over-year, cancellations were down 16.8%.
over-year, and off 61.1% from July.
Properties going back-to-bank jumped 21.1% from July,
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are but were down 57.4% year-over-year.
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
The total number of properties that have had a notice of
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
default filed decreased by 54.2% compared to last year.
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-
They were also down 24.2% from July.
quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone-
ments, like bankruptcy. The total number of properties scheduled for sale de-
clined by 30.8% year-over-year. Properties scheduled
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank
(Continued on page 4)
will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an
San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
$1,000 350
Table Definitions
$900 300 _______________
$800 250
$700 200 Median Price
The price at which 50% of pric-
$600 150
es were higher and 50%were
$500 100 lower.
$400 50
$300 0 Average Price
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JAS Add all prices and divide by the
7 8 9 0 1 2 number of sales.
Ave Med Units © 2012 rereport.com
SP/LP
September Sales Statistics Sales price to list price ratio or
the price paid for the property
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) divided by the asking price.
Prices Unit Change from last yearChange from last m onth
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales DOI
San Francisco $ 705,000 $ 828,376 248 50 101.0% 17.9% 20.7% 35.5% -3.4% 1.9% -16.8% Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
D1: Northw est $ 697,000 $ 764,750 10 82 101.4% 30.3% 29.4% 11.1% -10.4% -2.3% -16.7%
property for sale at the current
D2: Central West $ 783,000 $ 959,333 3 67 99.0% 37.4% 68.3% 200.0% 5.8% 32.6% 0.0% rate of sales.
D3: Southw est $ 325,000 $ 322,000 4 96 108.1% 18.6% 15.6% -33.3% 3.0% 1.7% -33.3%
D4: Tw in Peaks $ 299,000 $ 299,000 1 85 100.0% 8.0% 8.0% -50.0% -34.9% -43.3% -75.0% Pend
Property under contract to sell
D5: Central $ 959,000 $ 985,614 35 41 103.2% 31.4% 37.4% 9.4% 12.2% 8.4% -10.3%
that hasn’t closed escrow.
D6: Central North $ 621,500 $ 624,958 30 48 105.9% -3.6% -1.0% 57.9% -22.6% -20.6% -11.8%
D7: North $1,310,000 $1,268,733 15 23 105.1% 54.5% 37.8% 36.4% 62.7% 39.0% -42.3% Inven
D8: Northeast $ 684,000 $1,038,727 33 51 99.8% 12.1% 30.8% -10.8% 9.4% 30.1% -52.9% Number of properties actively
D9: Central East $ 732,500 $ 895,651 85 48 98.0% 26.8% 34.5% 32.8% 1.7% 3.8% -10.5% for sale as of the last day of the
month.
D10: Southeast $ 347,500 $ 342,167 6 91 106.4% 77.3% 74.6% 200.0% 16.2% 16.9% -25.0%

4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
(Continued from page 3)
25.0
for sale dropped 15.5% month-over- 20.0
month. 15.0
10.0
The number of properties owned by the 5.0
banks fell 21.2% year-over-year. Banks 0.0
now own about 520 properties in San -5.0 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JAS
Francisco. At the current rate of sales, -10.0
7 8 9 0 1 2
this is about a four weeks supply. Five -15.0
to six months supply of total inventory -20.0
signals a balanced market. -25.0
Sales Pricing © 2012 rereport.com
Data supplied by
http://foreclosureradar.com.
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JAS
-10.0
7 8 9 0 1 2
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
Sales Pricing © 2012 rereport.com
The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.