This document discusses various myths and misconceptions around the concept of "lessons learned" in the context of hydro-meteorological hazards. It argues that simply identifying lessons after a disaster is not enough, the lessons must be communicated to and used by relevant stakeholders to better prepare for future risks. It also cautions that history may not perfectly predict the uncertain future under climate change, but can still provide useful analogies if used carefully. The document advocates for more open sharing of lessons identified across generations and geographies to continually improve disaster risk reduction efforts.

1. “Teachable moments” about …
lessons learned
Michael H. Glantz (CCB, Boulder)
S.H.M. Fakhruddin (RIMES, Bangkok)
Green Economy Conference
September 27, Nepal

2. What does it mean to be a “lesson” learned in
the context of hydro-meteorological hazards?
Actions are taken
to avert or to
mitigate the
impacts of the
hazard, based on
forecasts and on
previous
experiences.
“To be Forewarned is to be forearmed.”

3. There are many myths about
lessons learned
Misperceptions
Falsehoods
Fallacies

4. “Ecosystems goods and services”:
a perception at the root of the problem?
• The Millennium Assessment’s :
• ‘Ecosystems goods and service for
human well-being.’
• This is ego-centric.
• Change it to ‘Human goods
and services for ecosystem
well being’
• This is eco-centric.

5. It comes down to this:
Do We Need Nature?
• This was the topic of
a Shell Oil Co. essay
contest
It’s sad that they asked
this question, because …

6. We spend lots of time and money on
environmental education for youth

7. The big question is not whether youth can
learn, but …

8. Myth: Lessons identified is a lessons learned
• Disasters provide
“teachable moments”
about how better to
prepare.
• But identifying a ?
teachable moment is
only part of the
solution.
• There must be people to
listen and use them to
prepare for an uncertain
hydro-climate future. “Don’t believe everything
that you think.”

9. Myth: History is not useful to cope
with an uncertain (climate) future
•Scientists say the
climate of the future will
not be like that of the
past.
•This contributes to the
“1999 -2000 problem”
To rebuild or not to rebuild.
That is the question.
•Yet, the near future is
likely to be similar to the
recent past. Lessons can
be shared between
adjacent generations.
“Those who fail to learn from
history are doomed to repeat it.”

10. What is a lesson learned in the context of a
changing climate?
• Higher education occupies a central position
in shaping the way how to cope with the
challenge of climate change.
• www.climate-campus.org

11. Myth: Technology is the answer!
(but what is the question?)
• A new Technological can be
considered neutral.
• Why and how it is used determines
its impacts.
• “Technological fixes” often produce
unanticipated, adverse impacts
that in turn require new tech fixes.
“In nature there is no free lunch”

12. Myth: Education is the answer.
(but what was the question?)
• This is valid as a
general belief, but
many smart people
still make bad
decisions.
• Listen to those at risk!
They are the true first
responders to creeping
and quick onset
changes.
Q: “How could you answer those difficult questions? You have
never been to school.”
Ans: “They happened to ask me the 12 things I do know.” (from
‘Slumdog Millionaire’)

13. Myth: Things will have to change
• People fear change,
often preferring the
devil they know to the
devil they don’t know.
• They want lives to get
back to ‘normal.’ But
what was ‘normal?’
• Change from “business
as usual” has to be
encouraged as it will
not necessarily occur
on its own merits.
“The first step in the hardest.”

14. Myth: Political leaders say what they mean
(and mean what they say)
•Political leaders
respond to a variety of
pressures on them.
•Doublespeak is “any
language that pretends
to to communicate but
actually disguises,
distorts, obscures or
reverses its actual
meaning.”
•It is a statement that is “To someone with a hammer
not literally false but everything looks like a nail.”
that cleverly avoids an
unpleasant truth.”

15. Myth: Better recommendations mean
better decisions
•Who is responsible for
follow up on the
lessons/recommendations?
•This must change.
•Post-disaster
recommendations, often
come without mention of
accountability or
“you can lead a horse to water,
responsibility. but you can’t make it drink.”

16. Myth: Where there is a will,
there is a way
• Those in society who
favor change after a
disaster are not the
ones in control of the
funds needed to make
those changes.
• And they do not often
live in the same
“If you don’t succeed at
disaster-prone region.
first, try, try again.”

17. Myth: “Once burned. Twice shy.”
• This expression of
folk wisdom
sounds good and
makes sense.
• History shows,
however, that for a
variety of reasons
people do not
necessarily learn
from their "One of the things that's
mistakes. becoming pretty clear ... is
everybody's a little risk-averse.”

18. Climate, water and weather related lessons
identified by analogy
• Post-disaster societal responses
in other locations can provide
insights into disaster avoidance
in the future by use of
analogies.
• However, analogies must be
used with caution and the
reason for using them must be
made explicit so other can see
the proposed and reasons
behind the use of the analogy “We know nothing of what
in the first place. will happen in future, but
by analogy of experience.”

19. “The world turns on lessons learned”
• Each generation is on a
learning curve to benefit the
future from the earlier
experiences.
• BUT, societies “discount past
experiences.”
• They value past experiences
much less recent ones.
“Oh, lessons learned And they sure run deep.
They don't go away And they don't come cheap.”
(from a song about lessons learned by Lawrence
Tracy).

20. 1962 Freeze in Florida
• Oranges in the tropics
remain green. Difficult to
identify as ripened
• A major freeze in Florida in
1962, sparked a sharp
increase in the price of OJ
in stores and in FCOJ.
• Brazilians saw a marketing
niche for their oranges … in
America
• Florida freezes in the early
1980s gave impetus to
Brazil’s export of FCOJ

21. Brazil, soybeans and the 1972-73 El Nino
impacts on Peru fishery
• The collapse of the anchovy
fishery sparked a demand for an
alternative feed for chicken
industry in USA
• second choice: soybeans
• Wheat farmers switched to
soybeans due to elevated prices.
• Brazilians entered the soybean
production business using
training by USA
• Now they are no. 1 as soybean
exporters

22. Examples of lack of use of existing
information
• Draining inland sea
• Energy examples
• Can green economy
be built on fossil
fuels?
• ‘Challenger’ failure
• Hurricane
preparedness: New
Orleans

23. Cyclone SIDR (Bangladesh)
• A false tsunami warning one
week before it actually
occurred, fostered a mistrust
when the credible warning
was issued.
• The lack of plans for the
development of safe shelters
left people and livestock at
high risk.

24. Cyclone NARGIS (Myanmar)
• A reliable cyclone forecast was
provided 5 days in advance of its
landfall but no government
concern was apparent about its
foreseeable physical and societal
impacts.
• Political isolation of the
governments and lack of
mechanisms for effective
response magnified Nargis’s
impacts.

25. Hurricane Katrina 2005
• Industrialized
countries are not
immune from
climate risks.
•Even a perfect
forecast requires
an effective
response to and
use of it.

26. Myth: Lessons identified warn everyone
• Lessons
identified
following a
disaster are not
shared with
everyone.
“Experience is a hard teacher. She gives a test
first, and the lesson afterward.”

27. Something to consider:
How about an international
YOUTH-demanded,
disaster-related “Lessons
Learned about Lessons
Learned” Summit?
Mt. Everest Summit

28. While there are many Plans B,
remind policy makers that …