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2019 Regional Economy RS: Slide Deck

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This presentation will provide, for the start of 2020, an overview of some of the most relevant trends in our metro economy- topics will include trends in gross domestic product for peer metros, job growth by sector, changes in wage levels, trends in residential permitting, and current forecasts.

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2019 Regional Economy RS: Slide Deck

  1. 1. Atlanta Regional Commission January 2019 2019 Regional Economic Snapshot January, 2020 For more information, contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional.orgThis Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND
  2. 2. Key Takeaways Metro Atlanta’s gross domestic product (GDP) has increased by 28 percent since 2010, compared to 19% growth across all US metros. From 2017-2018, though, Atlanta GDP grew by 2.5% compared to a metro US rate of 3%, and Atlanta’s relative ranking (among metros) dropped Metro Atlanta continues to be a national leader in job growth, though Atlanta’s growth rate has slowed since late 2017, hovering just above the national average Wages are now seeing positive annual growth, but wage increases are still not only sluggish, but uneven Strongest year-over-year employment growth found in lower- wage sectors, including construction and leisure & hospitality Home prices remain above pre-recession peak, though still well below the 20 (largest) city composite In the short-term forecast, Metro Atlanta’s GDP and average wages per worker should steadily increase
  3. 3. Metro Atlanta’s GDP Up 28 Percent Since 2010 (In thousands of Chained Dollars $2012) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Metro Area 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % Change: 2010- 2018 % Change: 2017-2018 New York 1,346,931,810 1,345,024,001 1,401,795,910 1,402,950,092 1,432,601,929 1,458,928,746 1,480,026,829 1,508,145,135 1,532,202,227 13.8% 1.6% Los Angeles 761,847,125 773,753,329 788,081,634 805,082,446 827,255,500 862,381,688 879,958,191 912,491,020 941,064,112 23.5% 3.1% Chicago 539,704,813 547,499,300 561,588,192 566,499,499 576,000,060 589,049,966 594,060,750 600,421,994 611,591,128 13.3% 1.9% San Francisco 337,823,829 339,335,749 364,594,793 377,737,541 400,781,517 424,791,715 443,866,458 472,872,746 497,195,398 47.2% 5.1% Washington 429,589,652 439,038,605 442,624,520 440,244,140 444,372,424 454,378,772 464,734,865 471,918,848 484,792,706 12.9% 2.7% Dallas 351,672,601 362,930,984 375,286,232 386,681,388 404,622,644 425,323,274 436,717,395 451,414,779 468,918,434 33.3% 3.9% Houston 381,346,585 390,737,065 404,431,385 419,466,692 420,449,655 442,705,932 429,133,987 432,329,249 445,335,360 16.8% 3.0% Boston 340,175,461 347,987,667 357,087,616 358,112,069 365,795,093 381,287,879 389,080,919 399,360,729 412,855,824 21.4% 3.4% Philadelphia 355,280,273 357,727,769 364,699,327 367,021,946 373,817,056 383,559,415 389,389,098 388,791,070 398,674,377 12.2% 2.5% Atlanta 278,698,042 284,227,194 287,570,424 293,812,164 307,232,862 320,160,440 334,862,045 348,681,584 357,308,437 28.2% 2.5% Seattle 248,903,638 256,694,112 269,668,824 278,883,107 290,949,071 304,333,821 315,094,519 332,835,662 355,662,749 42.9% 6.9% San Jose 174,393,890 187,433,129 194,167,686 213,509,528 231,295,129 254,023,744 270,803,531 289,710,772 318,998,478 82.9% 10.1% Miami 257,860,365 258,703,992 259,070,997 265,814,998 274,987,510 286,151,043 295,529,169 306,141,923 315,031,150 22.2% 2.9% Detroit 197,274,436 205,487,945 212,159,700 215,851,242 219,559,892 224,508,971 230,047,866 233,241,705 238,679,503 21.0% 2.3% Minneapolis 197,700,163 202,178,526 205,223,887 209,637,747 218,244,103 222,125,886 226,438,178 231,078,542 237,140,794 19.9% 2.6% Phoenix 181,027,408 186,397,519 192,799,880 194,105,313 197,939,483 204,031,462 210,882,969 217,895,725 227,741,337 25.8% 4.5% San Diego 174,052,646 177,867,461 180,338,029 187,845,995 193,675,144 200,564,607 203,882,502 210,693,896 219,361,505 26.0% 4.1% Denver 145,800,061 148,733,648 152,873,532 159,346,539 166,771,650 175,076,489 179,631,781 187,126,660 193,965,928 33.0% 3.7% Baltimore 160,892,954 164,048,190 165,503,885 167,044,799 169,106,886 171,574,554 177,075,054 178,407,243 183,093,526 13.8% 2.6% Riverside 128,214,518 131,711,899 132,596,838 137,290,849 142,594,292 149,872,535 154,105,682 159,582,093 164,892,302 28.6% 3.3% St. Louis, MO 145,227,408 145,570,801 147,318,294 147,468,476 147,739,270 147,639,705 145,890,916 147,633,364 152,060,042 4.7% 3.0% Portland 113,249,723 117,456,377 119,281,905 120,374,557 124,973,006 131,593,194 137,990,856 143,680,585 150,033,141 32.5% 4.4% Charlotte 114,095,994 120,570,847 127,361,099 126,546,666 130,434,606 136,879,027 139,087,135 143,835,956 146,813,931 28.7% 2.1% Tampa 118,486,088 118,718,859 120,334,797 122,399,727 124,637,915 129,796,986 133,617,728 137,030,695 141,904,761 19.8% 3.6% Pittsburgh 120,154,459 123,385,963 125,717,789 126,976,182 129,645,804 132,482,240 132,029,512 134,322,913 138,410,497 15.2% 3.0% Metro Atlanta’s gross domestic product (GDP) has increased by 28 percent since 2010, which ranks 9th out of the 25 largest metro areas, but well behind the gains experienced by places like San Francisco, San Jose and Austin, where the economies have become increasingly reliant on technology.
  4. 4. In general, metro Atlanta’s year-over-year employment growth rate has been stronger than that of the nation’s for the last six years. However, since late 2017, Atlanta’s growth rate has slowed, hovering just above the national rate and even dipping very slightly below that rate in the fall of 2018. Metro Atlanta Outperforming Nation Last 6 Years Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Year Over Year Percent Change in Total Employment ATL US
  5. 5. Metro Atlanta #7 in job growth, year-over-year Metro Atlanta ranks seventh among 12 peer metro areas in year-over-year job growth for the October 2018 to October 2019 period. Last year, Atlanta typically ranked 6th among its peers in year-over-year growth, so while the metro is still outpacing the national growth rate, Atlanta’s rate has slowed slightly compared to its peers. 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Charlotte San Francisco Houston Phoenix Dallas Denver Atlanta Miami Washington DC Boston U.S. Los Angeles Chicago Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Nonfarm Employment October 2018 – October 2019 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours
  6. 6. Growth in Higher-Paying Sectors Slow, While Lower-Paying Sectors Soar In metro Atlanta between October 2018 and October 2019, the construction, education & health services, and leisure & hospitality sectors experienced the strongest growth, significantly outpacing national growth in these sectors. The information sector in 2019 experienced a year of slow and, at times negative, growth—which mirrored national trends. 2.1% 0.0% 4.0% 1.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.8% 3.6% 4.9% -1.3% 1.8% 1.4% -0.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.5% -0.3% 1.3% 1.9% 2.7% 2.3% 1.3% 0.7% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Total Nonfarm Mining & Logging Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Employment, By Super Sector October 2018 – October 2019 Atlanta U.S. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours
  7. 7. A Look at Sector-by-Sector Employment Growth (not seasonally adjusted) While both construction and manufacturing employment rebounded from the Great Recession, construction saw strong upticks in growth from late 2017 to mid-2018 only to retract very slightly since late 2018 (to a still healthy 5% level). Manufacturing’s growth rate has hovered far lower, at between 0 and 2 percent since mid-2017. -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Construction -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Manufacturing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours
  8. 8. Growth in wholesale trade trended upward in 2017 and 2018 until experiencing precipitous decline over most of 2019. Employment in the retail sector has begun ticking back up into positive territory over the course of 2019 after experiencing declining growth rates during the latter half of 2018. -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Wholesale Trade -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Retail A Look at Sector-by-Sector Employment Growth (not seasonally adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours
  9. 9. Growth rates in the Information sector have been “spiky” over the past few years, and have mostly been negative since the beginning of 2018. As for the Financial Services sector, after experiencing growth rates near or over two percent from 2011 through late 2017, growth rates have flattened, even experiencing some retraction in late 2018 and early 2019. -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Information -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Financial Services A Look at Sector-by-Sector Employment Growth (not seasonally adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours
  10. 10. Also a high-paying sector, the Professional & Business Services sector experienced declining growth rates (near flat) for most of 2018 only to pick back up to over two percent year-over-year in 2019. Education and Health Services, although a bit spiky, has remained relatively stable at or above two percent year-over-year growth each year since the Great Recession ended. -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Professional & Business Services -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Education & Health Services A Look at Sector-by-Sector Employment Growth (not seasonally adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours
  11. 11. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours Employment growth in the Leisure & Hospitality sector has bounced up and down for several years but has remained at or above two percent year-over-year growth since the beginning of 2012. -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Leisure A Look at Sector-by-Sector Employment Growth (not seasonally adjusted)
  12. 12. Local Wages Less than National Wages Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; (CPI from Bureau of Labor Statistics) $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 $70,000 Average Earning Per Job ($2017) United States (Metropolitan Portion) Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) For 16 years between 1991 and 2007, the average job paid more in metro Atlanta than did the average job in other metropolitan areas. The Great Recession reversed that trend, and although slowly catching up, the average earnings remain less in metro Atlanta than in other metropolitan areas.
  13. 13. In Real Terms, Wages Are At 1999 Levels Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; (CPI from Bureau of Labor Statistics) $40,000.00 $45,000.00 $50,000.00 $55,000.00 $60,000.00 $65,000.00 $70,000.00 Average Earning Per Job – Metro Atlanta ($2017) In real terms, the average job today in metro Atlanta pays about the same as it did in 1999.
  14. 14. Where Did Middle Wage Jobs Go? $111,500 $87,780 $79,010 $77,580 $67,590 $66,210 $63,480 $49,310 $48,920 $45,690 $44,740 $40,380 $37,890 $35,770 $32,740 $31,890 $29,950 $27,480 $25,360 $22,960 $19,580 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 Management Computer and Mathematical Legal Architecture and Engineering Business and Financial Operations Healthcare Practitioners, Technical Life, Physical, and Social Science Arts, Design, Ent, Sports, Media Education, Training, Library Installation, Maintenance, Repair Community and Social Service Construction and Extraction Protective Service Office and Administrative Support Production Transportation and Material Moving Healthcare Support Sales and Related Building and Grounds Maintenance Personal Care and Service Food Preparation and Serving Median Wage, 2018 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Total Change in Jobs, 2013-2018 High Wage Jobs Added = 122,000 Mid Wage Jobs Added = 72,000 Low Wage Jobs Added = 180,000 One trend that we have been following is the bifurcation of employment growth which sees relatively strong job growth in higher and lower paying occupations, but relatively weak growth in middle-wage jobs. The high growth in low-wage jobs help explain the relative sluggishness in overall wage growth.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  15. 15. Average Hourly Wage by Selected Occupation Occupation Atlanta Area United States Financial Managers $74.02 $70.59 General and Operations Managers $59.01 $59.96 Management Analysts $46.39 $45.38 Computer Systems Analysts $44.91 $45.00 Accountants and Auditors $37.70 $37.89 Registered Nurses $35.19 $36.30 Customer Service Representatives $17.94 $17.53 Construction Laborers $17.17 $19.40 Retail Salespersons $12.60 $13.61 Cashiers $10.21 $11.17 Cooks, Fast Food $10.06 $10.89 Waiters and Waitresses $9.82 $12.42 In exploring wages by selected occupations, wages for lower-wage occupations pay less in metro Atlanta than they do in the nation as a whole. Source: Chmura Economics, JobsEQ
  16. 16. Home Prices Exceed Pre-Recession Peak Sources: Case-Shiller Home Price Index Home prices in metro Atlanta are higher today than during they were at Atlanta’s pre-recession peak--they have been for the last 30 months (per Case-Shiller). However, home prices in Atlanta are still lower than the 20 largest city composite prices. 154.03 $218.27 $50.00 $75.00 $100.00 $125.00 $150.00 $175.00 $200.00 $225.00 $250.00 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Case-Shiller Home Price Index Atlanta 20-City Composite
  17. 17. Total Residential Units Authorized by Building Permit Sources: State Of the Cities Database; ARC R&A Switching to the housing market –the number of units permitted remains significantly lower when compared to pre-recession levels. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Metro Atlanta Residential Units Permitted, 2003 – Current
  18. 18. Sources: State Of the Cities Database; ARC R&A. Note: Clayton, Douglas, Fayette, Henry, and Rockdale counties had 10 or less permitted multi-family residential units Total Residential Units Authorized by Building Permit, by Jurisdiction 668 1,839 711 1,345 1,844 400 460 2,552 2,954 1,326 223 2,547 266 70 1,938 49 2 82 765 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 City of Atlanta Cherokee County Clayton County Cobb County DeKalb County Douglas County Fayette County Fulton (without Atlanta) Gwinnett County Henry County Rockdale County Number of Residential Units Permitted, 2019, through October Single-Family Multi-Family Looking at local jurisdiction trends, Gwinnett County issued the most permits authorized residential units in 2019 (through October), with the vast majority of those being single-family. Both Cobb and the City of Atlanta have issued more than 3,000 units through October, but the majority of those are multi-family units.
  19. 19. Short-term Economic Forecasts from REMI Atlanta GDP will grow, on average, 2.4% year over year from 2020 through 2030, from $429 billion to $532 billion* Average annual wages will increase 12% from 2020 to 2030, from $53,050 to $59,350* In the short-term, ARC’s REMI econometric model predicts that... *fixed 2020 dollars

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