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How New Jersey’s Energy Master Plan (EMP) is critical to creating a more sustainable economy

  1. New Jersey’s Energy Master Plan (EMP) Why it’s critical to creating a clean energy economy
  2. 100% Clean Energy by 2050 Energy Master Plan (EMP) “….set forth a strategic vision for the production, distribution, consumption, and conservation of energy..” “...create new jobs, industries, and workforce development as the state expands its green economy...”
  3. EMP Draft: Seven Strategies 1. Transportation – reduce consumption and emissions 2. Accelerate deployment of renewables 3. Maximize energy efficiency and conservation 4. Building sector – reduce consumption and emissions 5. Modernize grid and utility infrastructure 6. Support energy planning in underserved communities 7. Expand clean energy innovation economy
  4. Speakers Julian Boggs – Policy Director, Energy Efficiency Alliance Barbara Blumenthal – Research Director, NJ Conservation Foundation Jon Carnegie – Executive Director, Rutgers University – Voorhees Transportation Center
  5. Energy Efficiency in the Energy Master Plan Julian Boggs Policy Director Energy Efficiency Alliance
  6. Potential for Energy Efficiency in NJ New Jersey energy efficiency potential. Source: Optimal Industrial efficiency potential by end use (MWh)
  7. Partial Summary of the EMP • Implement Clean Energy Act to achieve goals of 2% electricity and 0.75% gas savings for utilities. • Expand and improve state programs to supplement utility programs – Financing – Incentives & Rebates – Education – Low-income, hard-to-reach sectors • Reduce peak demand and avoid unnecessary capital investment in the grid.
  8. Benefits to business: Utility efficiency programs • Incentives and rebates reduce upfront cost and payback periods for capital investments. • Companies, even those with strong sustainability commitments, usually require short payback periods on investments. Source: ACEEE
  9. Benefits to business: State programs fill in gaps • State-administered rebate and incentive programs can fill in the gaps and deliver efficiency for hard-to-reach and expensive sectors such as small business and low-income homeowners • A Green Bank could help buy down interest rates to make clean energy finance more accessible for small businesses • Commercial Property Assessed Clean Energy can provide long-term financing for energy efficiency & clean energy improvements Source: PACE Nation
  10. Benefits to business: Grid improvement strategies • Utility companies earn profit by adding more poles, wires, and substations to meet increasing demand. • Non-wires alternatives and peak demand reduce the overall cost of the grid (transmission & distribution charges). • Load shifting and peak demand programs can create new revenue streams for large and small customers. Net benefits of Con Ed non-wires alternatives, 2003 – 2010. Source: NEEP
  11. Contact Julian Boggs Policy Director Energy Efficiency Alliance 215.910.4790
  12. New Jersey’s Energy Master Plan: How to achieve low-cost, low emissions electricity Barbara Blumenthal, Research Director, New Jersey Conservation Foundation
  13. Regional decarbonization will be important to achieving state emissions goals 13 NJ emissions PJM emissions 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2018 2050 20 0 400 80 MillionMetricTonCO2
  14. Adding 100% renewables, alone, does not eliminate the need for gas to provide flexibility NUCLEAR SOLAR WIND GAS GAS BATTERY RESOURCE MIX #1 Variable Limited duration, flexible Long duration, flexible Long duration, inflexible RESOURCE TYPE
  15. 100% Clean = Optimized clean energy portfolios includes the right mix of clean flexible resources to replace gas OPTIMIZED MIX #2 Right mix of regional renewables and flexible clean resources NUCLEAR SOLAR WIND NEW NUCLEAR? SOLAR WIND GAS GAS BATTERY STORAGE DEMAND RESPONSE FLEX LOAD BATTERY TBD Variable Limited duration, flexible Long duration, flexible Always available, inflexible RESOURCE TYPE RESOURCE MIX #1
  16. Corporate support for clean energy pathways 17 1. Invest in PPAs for solar and wind projects in PJM 2. Invest in resources that will provide clean flexibility: EVs, electrify heating and cooling systems, storage, demand response 3. Advocate for states to engage in state-of-art modeling and planning to identify clean energy pathways 4. Advocate for regional collaboration to decarbonize PJM 5. Update corporate compliance to go beyond
  17. LevelTen Energy provides transparent pricing for projects in PJM As of June 2019, LevelTen prices for 160 projects: PJM solar projects, P25 price = $33; P75 = $39 PJM wind projects, P25 price = $33; P75 = $35 18
  18. High renewables lead to a seasonal problem Wind and sun do not just vary on daily cycles; they vary substantially over weekly and monthly periods. The seasonal effect can be seen in California for onshore wind and solar photovoltaics. We see a variation in output of 300% or more between seasons. What happens when we combine wind and solar output to equal 100% of California electric demand on an annual basis, and contrast it to actual demand in each day, week and month? Assuming that we have a 50% wind/50% sun system, we get a pattern like the Figure below. (see Cohen) 19 Seasonal surplus Seasonal deficit Smoothed Daily Load & Renewable Energy Generation, Mixed Renewable Scenario (MW) Smoothed Daily CAISO Load (MW) Smoothed Daily Renewable Generation (MW) Scenario definition: 2018 wind and solar generation scale to each meet 50% of total 2018 CAISO load
  19. Optimized portfolios of clean energy resources Achieve 80% or higher reductions in emissions at lower cost than business-as-usual Scenarios that electrify and de-carbonize are estimated to produce savings of between $600 to $1,200 per Minnesotan household per year by 2050. Low-cost scenarios depend on building electrification and EVs as a new source of flexibility 20
  20. State policy steps leading to clean energy portfolios 21
  21. LevelTen Energy is a new platform that enables buyers to participate in aggregated projects “Aggregation is one of the industry’s highest priorities. Competitively priced wind and solar farms are typically 100 MW in capacity or higher, and most corporate buyers’ appetites are a fraction of that. Aggregation bridges the gap, and expands renewable markets beyond niche procurement for a few large corporations.” Herve Touati, Managing Director, Rocky Mountain Institute LevelTen’s technology-enabled two-sided market connects electricity sellers and buyers in highly sophisticated ways. We do this by blending resources from wind and solar projects into optimally-shaped power portfolios and syndicating the energy to individual customers in suitable volumes LevelTen syndicates buyers so you can access the 99% of the market that can’t buy your whole project. LevelTen has reimagined the RFP process from start to finish. Built specifically for renewable energy, LevelTen’s new RFP Automation solution eliminates hours of tedious data analysis and spreadsheet management. With the only comprehensive view of the best projects in the market, and access to real-time pricing and analytics, RFPs are now completed in weeks, not months. 22
  22. At high levels of renewables, energy systems require additional flexible resources to replace gas • Currently, flexible gas generation is used to balance generation with demand: filling in by the minute, hour, and for days. • At higher levels of renewables, the addition of more renewables can lead to incremental curtailment rather than further reductions in emissions. Portfolios of clean energy resources • High levels of renewables combined with complementary clean resources can provide reliable electric service with little to no natural gas – often at lower cost than business as usual • Renewables -- the right type, amounts and locations create a flatter supply curve that requires fewer balancing resources • Flexible resources – the right type, amounts and locations balance high levels of renewables at low cost • Planning is required to identify low-cost portfolios 23
  23. Baseline = 40% reduction in EI power sector GHGs 2017 to 2050 Decarb cases ~ 90% reduction in Eastern Interconnect GHGs 2017 to 2050 Minnesota’s Smarter Grid, Vibrant Clean Energy, 2018 (Vibrant Clean Energy, Minnesota study, 2018) 24
  24. Flexible resources (EVs and storage) save money 25
  25. Alexander E. MacDonald, Christopher T. M. Clack, Anneliese Alexander, Adam Dunbar, JamesWilczak and Yuanfu Xie, “Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions,” Nature Climate Change PUBLISHED ONLINE: 25 JANUARY 2016 Western regional grid: Williams, J.H., Jones, R., Kwok, G., and B. Haley, (2018). Deep Decarbonization in the Northeastern United States and Expanded Coordination with Hydro-Québec. A report of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network in cooperation with Evolved Energy Research and Hydro-Québec. April 8, 2018. post/2018/04/09/Decarbonizing-the-Northeast-and-Coordination-with-Hydro-Qu%C3%A9bec LevelTen Energy Q2 2019, Flexibility Solutions for High-Renewable Energy Systems Germany, BloombergNEF, November 2018. Systems-2018-BNEF-Eaton-Statkraft.pdf "BUILDING AMERICA'S CLEAN FUTURE: PATHWAYS TO DECARBONIZE THE ECONOMY", Testimony of Armond Cohen, Clean Air Task Force, July 24, 2019. americas-clean-future-pathways-to-decarbonize-the Nestor A. Sepulveda, Jesse D. Jenkins, Fernando J. de Sisternes, Richard K. Lester, “The Role of Firm Low-Carbon Electricity Resources in Deep Decarbonization of Power Generation”, Sepulveda et al., Joule 2, 2403–2420, November 21, 2018, Elsevier Inc., For an example of how a much more detailed power system model can be used to identify more and less cost-effective pathways for a state to decarbonize, see “Minnesota’s Smarter Grid - Pathways Toward A Clean and Affordable Transportation and Energy System”, July 2018, prepared by Vibrant Clean Energy, LLC, for McKnight Foundation and GridLab, available at: Wholesale Electricity Market Design For Rapid Decarbonization: Long-Term Markets, Working with Short-Term Energy Markets, by Steven Corneli, Eric Gimon, and Brendan Pierpont, Energy Innovation, June 2019 Resources referenced 26
  26. Presented by: Jon Carnegie, AICP/PP, Executive Director Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 2019 Draft New Jersey Energy Master Plan Transportation Sector Goals and Strategies NJ Sustainable Business Council Webinar August 20, 2019
  27. Climate change in action…Kennicott Glacier, AK (2019)
  28. GHG Emissions in New Jersey Reductions in the transportation sector will be critical to achieving NJ’s emissions target Source: NJ Draft 2019 Energy Master Plan, June 2019 60.0% 23.0% 9.0% 2.0% 2.6% 3.4% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% U.S. Transportation Emissions
  29. EMP’s Overarching Goal: 100% Clean Energy by 2050 100% carbon neutral electricity generation and maximum transition to electrification of the transportation and building sectors by 2050. Strategy 1: Reduce Energy Consumption and Emissions from the Transportation Sector • Goal 1.1 - Electrify the Transportation Sector • Goal 1.2 - Decrease Vehicle Miles Traveled • Goal 1.3 - Reduce Port and Airport Emissions • Goal 6.3 – Prioritize Clean Transportation Options in Low- and Moderate-income and Environmental Justice Communities
  30. What does this mean for transportation? “Early analysis suggests that NJ must electrify close to 100% of its light-duty vehicles and a substantial number of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles and off-road mobile sources to meet emissions targets.” Zero Emission Vehicle MOU = 330,000 light-duty electric vehicles on the road by 2025
  31. Electrification: Recent Trends – New Jersey Source: Electric Vehicles in New Jersey: Costs and Benefits, Gabel Associates, Inc. and Energy Initiatives Group, LLC., 2018
  32. NJ Resident’s greatest concerns regarding buying an electric car Source: 2019 NJ Climate Change Alliance / Eagleton Poll 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Can't afford an EV Don't have a place to charge an EV at home Worried about running out of power on the road Don't think EV will performa as well as a traditional car Don't Know Not a Reason at All Minor Reason Major Reason
  33. Why should businesses care? • Opportunities: – Green leadership can provide reputational/brand benefits – EV uptake can provide new and different business opportunities – Installing EV chargers can add value to a business by attracting and retaining high-value workers and customers – EV fleet vehicles are cheaper to operate and maintain – Reduced GHG emissions benefits everyone • Challenges: – Demand for charging infrastructure will increase steadily and may grow quickly – Electrifying commercial vehicle fleets will require commitment and significant investment – EV range limits may impact operational efficiency – Changing behavior is hard!
  34. What can businesses do? • Implement programs that allow employees to drive less • Consider the transportation outcomes of facility and location decisions • Increase employee/customer awareness and knowledge regarding the benefits of EVs • Make sure your employees/customers have an easy time charging their vehicles • Create incentive programs to encourage employees to purchase EVs • Create purchasing collectives to harness multi-business buying power • Lead by example, share best practices, and engage with the policymakers, industry leaders and investors who are shaping the transition to a clean energy economy in New Jersey
  35. Get involved • BPU stakeholder meetings 5 & 6 – Camden Thursday, Sept. 12; 1 - 4pm, 4:30 – 7:30pm Black Box Theater, The Kroc Center 1865 Harrison Ave., Camden NJ • Written comments due Sept. 16 by Noon E-mail to: • Implement clean energy initiatives • Help amplify the sustainable business policy voice
  36. Contact Info. Richard Lawton Trina Mallik Trina.mallik@TNC.ORG John Carlson

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Goal 1.1 – Electrify the Transport Sector 1.1.1 Support the deployment of 330,000 light-duty electric vehicles on the road by 2025, per the Zero Emission Vehicle MOU 1.1.2 Deploy EV charging infrastructure throughout the state 1.1.3 Encourage electric vehicle adoption through incentives for charging station installation in certain locations and the purchase of electric vehicles 1.1.4 Increase consumer and fleet owner awareness and acceptance of electric vehicles 1.1.5 Rollover the state light-duty (passenger) fleet to electric vehicles 1.1.6 Continue to improve New Jersey Transit’s environmental performance 1.1.7 Increase clean transportation options in low-and moderate-income and environmental justice communities 1.1.8 Partner with industry to develop incentives to develop the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleet with battery or fuel cell technology, or to support R&D that will enable such electrification 1.1.9 Explore policies that can accelerate adoption of alternative fuels in the transportation sector Goal 1.2 – Decrease Vehicle Miles Traveled 1.2.1 Identify opportunities to reduce vehicle miles traveled 1.2.2 Accelerate the implementation of the Transit Village Program 1.2.3 Relieve congestion and idling throughout New Jersey Goal 1.3 – Reduce Port and Airport Emissions 1.3.1 Support electrification of diesel-powered transportation and equipment at the ports and airports 1.3.2 Support a diesel truck buy-out program 1.3.3 Support Community Solar developments on port property Goal 6.3 – Prioritize Clean Transportation Options in Low- and Moderate-income and Environmental Justice Communities 6.3.1 Prioritize replacement of public transportation fossil-fueled fleets with electric fleets, with a focus on environmental justice communities 6.3.2 Build or incentivize electric vehicle charging infrastructure in lower income communities 6.3.3 Develop an e-mobility program, including electric taxis and car sharing, neighborhood electric vehicles, scooters or e-bikes, and bicycles
  2. This chart shows growth in the Global Electric Car stock since 2010. As you can see there are approximately 2.0 million electric cares on the road worldwide. EV sales have grown exponentially in the past several years. In fact, the IEA documented a global 60 percent growth in the EV market from 2015 to 2016. While EVs make up just 0.2 percent of passenger vehicles worldwide, in six countries, their market share has surpassed 1 percent: Norway (29%), the Netherlands (6.4%), Sweden (3.4%), France, the United Kingdom and China (1.5%). Norway introduced far-sighted EV incentives in the 1990s, and this year, around 40 percent of all vehicles sold there were electric. California introduced a modest zero-emissions vehicle policy in 1990 and has followed that with other incentives for hybrids and EVs. In the first quarter of 2017, 5 percent of new car sales in California were zero-emissions vehicles. But policy incentives will only take EVs so far. The real tipping point will come when they are cost-competitive with internal combustion engines. Source: Inside Climate News,
  3. Opportunities: Brand/Image benefits (early and robust adoption positions your business as an innovator and green leader) New and different business opportunities (there is work to do…charger installation, servicing EVs, battery reuse, even car wrapping to foster EV+Brand benefits. Business benefits to having chargers on-site (satisfied employees and customers and new “captive” customers during charging downtime) EV fleets should be cheaper to operate and maintain (electric is cheaper than gas and EV motors are less complicated and require less maintenance. Deutsche Post DHL Group, which today operates the largest electric fleet in Germany reports saving 60-70 percent on fuel costs and 60-80 percent on maintenance and repair costs compared to standard vehicle operation.) Reduced GHG emissions benefits everyone (improved air quality, less noise and the associated health benefits, reduce the impacts of climate change, and others) Challenges: Demand for charging infrastructure at corporate offices and commercial establishments will increase steadily and may grow quickly in some markets Where, how many, how fast and at what cost remain unanswered questions There will be increasing pressure to electrify commercial vehicle fleets This will require planning and significant investment in both vehicles and charging infrastructure Operations and maintenance will likely be impacted (maintenance of EVs require different equipment and skill sets) EV range limits may impact operational efficiency. (New operational models may be needed e.g., en-route charging)
  4. Implement programs that allow employees to drive less Consider the transportation outcomes of facility and location decisions Increase employee/customer awareness and knowledge regarding the benefits of EVs Make sure your employees/customers have an easy time charging their vehicles Create purchasing collectives to harness multi-business buying power Lead by example, share best practices, and engage with the policymakers, industry leaders and investors who are shaping EV markets Urge NJDEP and BPU to develop a more strategic approach for deploying EV charging infrastructure Advocate for incentive programs to encourage commercial fleet rollover