Lo4b (nabil) breakeven analysis

Breakeven point
LO4b
EGN 3203 Engineering Economics
LEARNING OUTCOMES
1. Breakeven point – one parameter
2. Breakeven point – two alternatives
3. Payback period analysis
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-2
Breakeven Point
The parameter (or variable) can be an amount of
revenue, cost, supply, demand, etc. for one project or
between two alternatives
 One project - Breakeven point is identified as QBE. Determined
using linear or non-linear math relations for revenue and cost
 Between two alternatives - Determine one of the parameters
P, A, F, i, or n with others constant
Solution is by one of three methods:
Direct solution of relations
Trial and error
Spreadsheet functions or tools (Goal Seek or
Solver)
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-3
Value of a parameter that makes two elements equal
Cost-Revenue Model ― One Project
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
13-4
Quantity, Q — An amount of the variable in
question, e.g., units/year, hours/month
Breakeven value is QBE
Fixed cost, FC — Costs not directly dependent on the variable, e.g.,
buildings, fixed overhead, insurance, minimum workforce cost
Variable cost, VC — Costs that change with parameters such as
production level and workforce size. These are labor, material
and marketing costs. Variable cost per unit is v
Total cost, TC — Sum of fixed and variable costs, TC = FC + VC
Revenue, R — Amount is
dependent on quantity sold
Revenue per unit is r
Profit, P — Amount of
revenue remaining after costs
P = R – TC = R – (FC+VC)
Breakeven Analysis
• There are different shapes of a
revenue relation - identified as R .
• A linear revenue relation is
commonly assumed, but a nonlinear
relation is often more realistic.
• It can model an increasing per unit
revenue with larger volumes - curve
1
• or a decreasing per unit revenue that
usually prevails at higher quantities
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights
Reserved
5
Breakeven for linear R and TC
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-5
Set R = TC and solve for Q = QBE
R = TC
rQ = FC + vQ
FC
r – v
When variable cost, v, is lowered, QBE
decreases (moves to left)
QBE =
• The breakeven graph is an important management tool.
• Often used in decision making.
• if the variable cost VC per unit is reduced, then the TC line has a smaller slope and the
breakeven point will decrease.
• This is an advantage because the smaller the value of QBE, the greater the profit for a
given amount of revenue.
Example: One Project Breakeven Point
Solution: Find QBE and compare to 15,000; calculate Profit
QBE = 75,000 / (8.00-2.50) = 13,636 units/month
Production level is above breakeven Profit
Profit = R – (FC + VC)
= rQ – (FC + vQ) = (r-v)Q – FC
= (8.00 – 2.50)(15,000) – 75,000
= $ 7500/month
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-6
A plant produces 15,000 units/month. Find breakeven level if FC =
$75,000 /month, revenue is $8/unit and variable cost is $2.50/unit.
Determine expected monthly profit or loss.
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights
Reserved
8
Example: One Project Breakeven Point
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights
Reserved
9
Example: One Project Breakeven Point
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights
Reserved
10
Example: One Project Breakeven Point
Breakeven Between Two Alternatives
To determine value of common variable between 2 alternatives, do the following:
1. Define the common variable
2. Develop equivalence PW, AW or FW relations as function of common variable for
each alternative
3. Equate the relations; solve for variable. This is breakeven value
4. Selection of the alternative is different depending upon two facts:
– the parameter value relative to the breakeven point.
– slope of the variable cost curve
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-7
Selection of alternative is based on
anticipated value of common variable:
 Value BELOW breakeven;
select higher variable cost (larger
slope)
 Value ABOVE breakeven;
select lower variable cost (less
slope)
Example: Two Alternative Breakeven Analysis
Perform a make/buy analysis where the
common variable is X, the number of units
produced each year. AW relations are:
AWmake = -18,000(A/P,15%,6)
+2,000(A/F,15%,6) – 0.4X
AWbuy = -1.5X
Solution: Equate AW relations, solve for X
-1.5X = -4528 - 0.4X
X = 4116 per year
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-8
X, 1000 units per year
Breakeven
value of X
1 2 3 4 5
AWbuy
AWmake
If anticipated production > 4116,
select make alternative (lower variable cost)
AW, 1000
$/year
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Breakeven Analysis Using Goal Seek Tool
Spreadsheet tool Goal Seek finds breakeven value for the
common variable between two alternatives
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-9
Problem: Two machines (1 and 2) have following estimates.
a) Use spreadsheet and AW analysis to select one at MARR = 10%.
b) Use Goal Seek to find the breakeven first cost.
Machine 1 2
P, $ -80,000 -110,000
NCF, $/year 25,000
22,000
S, $ 2,000
3,000
n, years 4 6
Solution: a) Select machine A with AWA = $193
Breakeven Analysis Using Goal Seek Tool
Solution: b) Goal Seek finds a first-cost breakeven of $96,669 to
make machine B economically equivalent to A
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-10
Spreadsheet after Goal Seek is applied
Changing cell
Target cell
Payback Period Analysis
Caution: Payback period analysis is a good initial screening
tool, rather than the primary method to justify a project or
select an alternative (Discussed later)
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-11
Payback period: Estimated amount of time (np) for cash inflows to recover an
initial investment (P) plus a stated return of return (i%)
Types of payback analysis: No-return and discounted payback
1. No-return payback means rate of return is ZERO (i = 0%)
2. Discounted payback considers time value of money (i > 0%)
Payback Period Computation
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-12
Formula to determine payback period (np)
varies with type of analysis.
NCF = Net Cash Flow per period t
Eqn. 1
Eqn. 2
Eqn. 3
Eqn. 4
Points to Remember About Payback Analysis
• No-return payback neglects time value of money, so no
return is expected for the investment made
• No cash flows after the payback period are considered in the
analysis. Return may be higher if these cash flows are
expected to be positive.
• Approach of payback analysis is different from PW, AW, ROR
and B/C analysis. A different alternative may be selected
using payback.
• Rely on payback as a supplemental tool; use PW or AW at the
MARR for a reliable decision
• Discounted payback (i > 0%) gives a good sense of the risk
involved
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-13
Example: Payback Analysis
System 1 System 2
First cost, $ 12,000 8,000
NCF, $ per year 3,000 1,000 (year 1-5)
3,000 (year 6-14)
Maximum life, years 7 14
Problem: Use (a) no-return payback, (b) discounted payback at
15%, and (c) PW analysis at 15% to select a system. Comment
on the results.
Solution: (a) Use Eqns. 1 and 2
np1= 12,000 / 3,000 = 4 years
np2= -8,000 + 5(1,000) + 1(3,000) = 6 years
Select system 1
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-14
Example: Payback Analysis (continued)
System 1 System 2
First cost, $ 12,000 8,000
NCF, $ per year 3,000 1,000 (year 1-5)
3,000 (year 6-14)
Maximum life, years 7 14
Solution: (b) Use Eqns. 3 and 4
System 1: 0 = -12,000 + 3,000(P/A,15%,np1)
np1 = 6.6 years
System 2: 0 = -8,000 + 1,000(P/A,15%,5)
+ 3,000(P/A,15%,np2 - 5)(P/F,15%,5)
np1 = 9.5 years
Select system 1
(c) Find PW over LCM of 14 years
PW1 = $663
PW2 = $2470
Select system 2
Comment: PW method considers cash flows after payback period.
Selection changes from system 1 to 2 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-15
Summary of Important Points
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-16
Breakeven amount is a point of indifference to
accept or reject a project
One project breakeven: accept if quantity is > QBE
Two alternative breakeven: if level > breakeven,
select lower variable cost alternative (smaller slope)
Payback estimates time to recover investment.
Return can be i = 0% or i > 0%
Use payback as supplemental to PW or other analyses,
because np neglects cash flows after payback,
and if i = 0%, it neglects time value of money
Payback is useful to sense the economic risk in a project
1 sur 20

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Lo4b (nabil) breakeven analysis

  • 1. Breakeven point LO4b EGN 3203 Engineering Economics
  • 2. LEARNING OUTCOMES 1. Breakeven point – one parameter 2. Breakeven point – two alternatives 3. Payback period analysis © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-2
  • 3. Breakeven Point The parameter (or variable) can be an amount of revenue, cost, supply, demand, etc. for one project or between two alternatives  One project - Breakeven point is identified as QBE. Determined using linear or non-linear math relations for revenue and cost  Between two alternatives - Determine one of the parameters P, A, F, i, or n with others constant Solution is by one of three methods: Direct solution of relations Trial and error Spreadsheet functions or tools (Goal Seek or Solver) © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-3 Value of a parameter that makes two elements equal
  • 4. Cost-Revenue Model ― One Project © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved 13-4 Quantity, Q — An amount of the variable in question, e.g., units/year, hours/month Breakeven value is QBE Fixed cost, FC — Costs not directly dependent on the variable, e.g., buildings, fixed overhead, insurance, minimum workforce cost Variable cost, VC — Costs that change with parameters such as production level and workforce size. These are labor, material and marketing costs. Variable cost per unit is v Total cost, TC — Sum of fixed and variable costs, TC = FC + VC Revenue, R — Amount is dependent on quantity sold Revenue per unit is r Profit, P — Amount of revenue remaining after costs P = R – TC = R – (FC+VC)
  • 5. Breakeven Analysis • There are different shapes of a revenue relation - identified as R . • A linear revenue relation is commonly assumed, but a nonlinear relation is often more realistic. • It can model an increasing per unit revenue with larger volumes - curve 1 • or a decreasing per unit revenue that usually prevails at higher quantities © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved 5
  • 6. Breakeven for linear R and TC © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-5 Set R = TC and solve for Q = QBE R = TC rQ = FC + vQ FC r – v When variable cost, v, is lowered, QBE decreases (moves to left) QBE = • The breakeven graph is an important management tool. • Often used in decision making. • if the variable cost VC per unit is reduced, then the TC line has a smaller slope and the breakeven point will decrease. • This is an advantage because the smaller the value of QBE, the greater the profit for a given amount of revenue.
  • 7. Example: One Project Breakeven Point Solution: Find QBE and compare to 15,000; calculate Profit QBE = 75,000 / (8.00-2.50) = 13,636 units/month Production level is above breakeven Profit Profit = R – (FC + VC) = rQ – (FC + vQ) = (r-v)Q – FC = (8.00 – 2.50)(15,000) – 75,000 = $ 7500/month © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-6 A plant produces 15,000 units/month. Find breakeven level if FC = $75,000 /month, revenue is $8/unit and variable cost is $2.50/unit. Determine expected monthly profit or loss.
  • 8. © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved 8 Example: One Project Breakeven Point
  • 9. © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved 9 Example: One Project Breakeven Point
  • 10. © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved 10 Example: One Project Breakeven Point
  • 11. Breakeven Between Two Alternatives To determine value of common variable between 2 alternatives, do the following: 1. Define the common variable 2. Develop equivalence PW, AW or FW relations as function of common variable for each alternative 3. Equate the relations; solve for variable. This is breakeven value 4. Selection of the alternative is different depending upon two facts: – the parameter value relative to the breakeven point. – slope of the variable cost curve © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-7 Selection of alternative is based on anticipated value of common variable:  Value BELOW breakeven; select higher variable cost (larger slope)  Value ABOVE breakeven; select lower variable cost (less slope)
  • 12. Example: Two Alternative Breakeven Analysis Perform a make/buy analysis where the common variable is X, the number of units produced each year. AW relations are: AWmake = -18,000(A/P,15%,6) +2,000(A/F,15%,6) – 0.4X AWbuy = -1.5X Solution: Equate AW relations, solve for X -1.5X = -4528 - 0.4X X = 4116 per year © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-8 X, 1000 units per year Breakeven value of X 1 2 3 4 5 AWbuy AWmake If anticipated production > 4116, select make alternative (lower variable cost) AW, 1000 $/year 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
  • 13. Breakeven Analysis Using Goal Seek Tool Spreadsheet tool Goal Seek finds breakeven value for the common variable between two alternatives © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-9 Problem: Two machines (1 and 2) have following estimates. a) Use spreadsheet and AW analysis to select one at MARR = 10%. b) Use Goal Seek to find the breakeven first cost. Machine 1 2 P, $ -80,000 -110,000 NCF, $/year 25,000 22,000 S, $ 2,000 3,000 n, years 4 6 Solution: a) Select machine A with AWA = $193
  • 14. Breakeven Analysis Using Goal Seek Tool Solution: b) Goal Seek finds a first-cost breakeven of $96,669 to make machine B economically equivalent to A © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-10 Spreadsheet after Goal Seek is applied Changing cell Target cell
  • 15. Payback Period Analysis Caution: Payback period analysis is a good initial screening tool, rather than the primary method to justify a project or select an alternative (Discussed later) © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-11 Payback period: Estimated amount of time (np) for cash inflows to recover an initial investment (P) plus a stated return of return (i%) Types of payback analysis: No-return and discounted payback 1. No-return payback means rate of return is ZERO (i = 0%) 2. Discounted payback considers time value of money (i > 0%)
  • 16. Payback Period Computation © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-12 Formula to determine payback period (np) varies with type of analysis. NCF = Net Cash Flow per period t Eqn. 1 Eqn. 2 Eqn. 3 Eqn. 4
  • 17. Points to Remember About Payback Analysis • No-return payback neglects time value of money, so no return is expected for the investment made • No cash flows after the payback period are considered in the analysis. Return may be higher if these cash flows are expected to be positive. • Approach of payback analysis is different from PW, AW, ROR and B/C analysis. A different alternative may be selected using payback. • Rely on payback as a supplemental tool; use PW or AW at the MARR for a reliable decision • Discounted payback (i > 0%) gives a good sense of the risk involved © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-13
  • 18. Example: Payback Analysis System 1 System 2 First cost, $ 12,000 8,000 NCF, $ per year 3,000 1,000 (year 1-5) 3,000 (year 6-14) Maximum life, years 7 14 Problem: Use (a) no-return payback, (b) discounted payback at 15%, and (c) PW analysis at 15% to select a system. Comment on the results. Solution: (a) Use Eqns. 1 and 2 np1= 12,000 / 3,000 = 4 years np2= -8,000 + 5(1,000) + 1(3,000) = 6 years Select system 1 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-14
  • 19. Example: Payback Analysis (continued) System 1 System 2 First cost, $ 12,000 8,000 NCF, $ per year 3,000 1,000 (year 1-5) 3,000 (year 6-14) Maximum life, years 7 14 Solution: (b) Use Eqns. 3 and 4 System 1: 0 = -12,000 + 3,000(P/A,15%,np1) np1 = 6.6 years System 2: 0 = -8,000 + 1,000(P/A,15%,5) + 3,000(P/A,15%,np2 - 5)(P/F,15%,5) np1 = 9.5 years Select system 1 (c) Find PW over LCM of 14 years PW1 = $663 PW2 = $2470 Select system 2 Comment: PW method considers cash flows after payback period. Selection changes from system 1 to 2 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-15
  • 20. Summary of Important Points © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved13-16 Breakeven amount is a point of indifference to accept or reject a project One project breakeven: accept if quantity is > QBE Two alternative breakeven: if level > breakeven, select lower variable cost alternative (smaller slope) Payback estimates time to recover investment. Return can be i = 0% or i > 0% Use payback as supplemental to PW or other analyses, because np neglects cash flows after payback, and if i = 0%, it neglects time value of money Payback is useful to sense the economic risk in a project