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Quel avenir pour le commerce des années 2020 ?

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La décennie en cours a profondément modifié la distribution avec le développement du digital, l’omnicanal, de nombreuses innovations commerciales en magasin et en ligne, mais aussi des difficultés pour les enseignes qui ont tardé à se transformer.

Allons-nous vers une stabilisation ou les bouleversements vont-ils se poursuivre ?
Quelles sont les transformations indispensables pour réussir dans la prochaine décennie ?
Quels sont les nouveaux modèles et nouveaux concepts commerciaux marquants pour l’avenir ?

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Quel avenir pour le commerce des années 2020 ?

  1. 1. Winning Omnichannel Valette, Frédéric, KANTAR Quel avenir pour le commerce des années 2020 ? En partenariat avec Club Distribution 17 avril 2019
  2. 2. Winning Omnichannel 10 things you need to know to find growth in reinvented retail Frédéric Valette Frederic.valette@kantarworldpanel.com Retail & Fashion Director France March 2019
  3. 3. A full picture of the retail landscape partnering with Europanel and Intage Japan Using our consumer panels to measure real shopping behaviour and retail choices of more than 3 billion people 3 FMCG Grocery including fresh food with barcodes+ beverages + household products + health& beauty All channels • Modern trade defined as stores with more then 1 counter and marketed ranging: hyper + supermarkets + discounters + convenience • Convenience: defined as small shops (under 400 sqm) with a reduced but marketed ranging and extended opening hours • Cash-and-carry: concept like Costco or Atacadao in Latam where goods are sold from a whosale warehouse • E-commerce defined as bricks with online offer or drive + pure players & marketplace • Traditional: small stores where the ranging is not marketed+specialists as butchers, fish shops, fruits&vegetable shops.... • Others Door to door +Drugstore +Pharmacy 27 countries Americas: Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, CAM, US Western Europe: France, UK, Spain, Portugal Asia: China, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan (Intage) Africa & Middle East: Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Saudi Arabia 3 years back & forecast All data updated as of December 2017 and forecast analysis based on temporal series modelling
  4. 4. 01 Like for like growth is over
  5. 5. Growth in FMCG is harder than ever, 2017 is slightly better Growth in percentage over the previous years 5Source: Kantar Worldpanel, IMF 3,5% 3,4% 3,5% 3,4% 3,2% 3,7% 6,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,3% 1,9% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Global Real GDP (IMF) Global FMCG
  6. 6. Western Europe improves value performance in 2017 mainly due to inflation in the UK FMCG annual value growth 2017 & (2016) Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Europanel, Intage 6 +7.3% (+13.0%) +0.5% (+0.4%) +8.8% (+5.2%) +2.2% (+0.3%) +4.3% (+3.1%) ASIA LATIN AMERICA AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE USA +3.9% (+3.6%) EASTERN EUROPE +1.9% (+1.3%) GLOBAL
  7. 7. FMCG is unlikely to generate big value growth in the coming years Source: Kantar Worldpanel 7 FMCG under pressure Trading down Trade - off Frequency Population Slowing growth of global population Population growth is predicted to slow to 0.9% over the next 30 years Getting older People aged 60 and over/ 600M in 2000/ 900M in 2015/ 2,100M in 2050 Shoppers making fewer trips Average frequency of trips per year decreasing rapidly in all regions (185 visits to store in 2015, 178 in 2018 globally) Spending less More discounters, promotions and private labels Spending out of FMCG Entertainment & technology spend are growing
  8. 8. Frequency of purchase declining mainly in Latam & Asia Less visits to traditional trade while visits to modern trade remains flat or growing Frequency of purchase (number of trips per shopper per year) 8 185 221 105 147 55 123 259 202 104 306 118 234 229 79 360 132 94 391 208 155 265 91 558 182 221 106 146 55 120 257 195 103 301 119 226 217 76 346 131 91 396 206 149 269 93 604 178 223 106 148 55 116 246 190 100 289 121 225 210 75 317 134 89 393 198 145 270 95 570 2015 2016 2017
  9. 9. 02 Invest on convenience and value for money models
  10. 10. 10 Understanding what shoppers need SAVE TIME & STRESS FREE VALUE FOR MONEY PROXIMITY E-COMMERCE DISCOUNT – C&C CONVENIENCE
  11. 11. Growth is fragmented and new drivers have emerged FMCG Global value annual growth 2017/ 2016 Source: Kantar Worldpanel 11 +0.8% HYPER/ SUPER +1.9% TOTAL +2.0% TRADITIONAL +2.0% CONVENIENCE +4.4% CASH&CARRY +5.2% DISCOUNTERS +15.0% E-COMMERCE
  12. 12. 03 Change the way you observe your performance
  13. 13. The read of performance in Hyper and supermarkets is not enough anymore % value contribution to 2017 FMCG growth 13 76% of FMCG value growth comes from outside HM/SM 24% 5% 13% 28% 10% 11% 10% Hypermarket & Supermarket Convenience Discounters e-commerce Cash&carry Traditional Others
  14. 14. 50,8% 18,5% 13,3% 4,8% 5,4% 5,1% 1,3% 49,8% 18,6% 13,2% 5,4% 5,5% 5,2% 1,6% 49,2% 18,4% 13,1% 5,8% 5,5% 5,3% 1,8% Hypermarkets & Supermarkets Tradional trade Others E-commerce Convenience Discounters Cash&carry 2015 2016 2017 Acceleration of retail changes Percentage of global value share by channel Source: Kantar Worldpanel 14
  15. 15. 50,8% 18,5% 13,3% 4,8% 5,1% 5,4% 1,3% 49,8% 18,6% 13,2% 5,4% 5,2% 5,5% 1,6% 49,2% 18,4% 13,1% 5,8% 5,3% 5,5% 1,8% 48,4% 18,4% 12,5% 7,2% 6,0% 5,8% 2,1% Hypermarket & Supermarket Tradional trade Others E-commerce Discounters Convenience Cash&carry 2015 2016 2017 Forecast 2020 Forecast 2020: e-commerce will stand for 7,2% of total spend % global value share by channel Source: Kantar Worldpanel 15
  16. 16. 04 Drive growth reaching the right audience with the right ranging
  17. 17. Source Kantar Worldpanel, Europanel % Value growth in the last year UK, US, FR, GE, SP 17 +11% avocado +4% brocoli +4% spinach +8% berries Health is growing globally % Average Growth in Value vs 2014 0,0 1,0 4,0 1,6 26 6,2 10,1 8,7 Spain France Germany UK FRESH FOOD ORGANIC FRESH FOOD *
  18. 18. Local brand continue to chip away at global brand spend Share of spend – Global vs Local ($%) Source Kantar Worldpanel, Europanel 18
  19. 19. 05 Private label has a great future still
  20. 20. Private Label shares are still growing globally but largely due to the US and discounter increase 11,3% 13,9% 30,8% 34,7% 2,8% 7,0% 16,2% 22,0% 1,2% 1,2% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Global Western Europe Eastern Europe USA Latam Private Label FMCG Value Shares Source: Global and regional totals are the ‘barometer’ countries in this report: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK, Poland, Russia, US, Brazil, Mexico, China and Japan 22
  21. 21. 06 Adapted to a world of constrasts
  22. 22. E-commerce, Asia is dominant. 2017 Online value share in FMCG E-commerce 24 FAST GROWING 2017 value growth +15.0% ALREADY SIGNIFICANT % Value share of ecommerce in FMCG market 5.8% BRANDED % Value share Brands: 79.9% Private label: 20.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.1 5.4 7.6 1.91.0 8.0 0.1 0.1 7.6 16.7 1.5 0.1 1.1 6.4 0.5 1.7 0.5 2.0 0.9 2.3 1.9 0.1 2.6 2.2 3.2 1.7 0,6 0.9 0.1 1.1 1.8 Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Europanel, Intage, US commerce department – MAT December 2017 From 1.0% share to 5.8 From 0% share to 1% Above 5.8% share
  23. 23. 52% 41% 36% 32% 30% 18% 8% 7% 5% 29% 17% 16% 16% 15% 29% 7% 8% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% CHINA KOREA TAIWAN SPAIN GLOBAL US UK FRANCE JAPAN Global slow down in E-commerce explained by Asia E-commerce in FMCG: % annual value growth 2017 vs 2016 / 2016 vs 2015 Source Kantar Worldpanel, Intage 25
  24. 24. Pure players go faster % Value weight of Bricks vs Pure players in big countries – 52 w/e March 2017 26 79,6 %South Korea 96,7 % China 60,8% Global +30% 16,0 % UK Pure Players (+48%) Bricks (+9%) 5,4% France 100% bricks Argentina Malaysia Source Kantar Worldpanel
  25. 25. Megacities, at the heart of online winning strategy 52 w/e March 2017 – share of market in value 27 3,8 PARIS 9,4 LONDON 2,5 MADRID 9,6 SHANGHAI 9,4 BEIJING 1,4 BANGKOK 1,3 BUENOS AIRES I: 200 I: 200 I: 139 I: 68 I: 125 Source Kantar Worldpanel the share of e-commerce in Shanghai is almost twice Total China share
  26. 26. Playing where it is relevant Category and country contrasts in FMCG Global e-commerce share by macro category Source: Kantar Worldpanel 28 4,3% 6,3% 17,0% 30,6% France UK China South Korea 2017 Value Share of Beauty products online 5,9% 6,2% 8,4% 31,1% France China UK South Korea 2017 Value Share of Homecare online 5,8% 10,5% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0% Total FMCG Food Beverages Homecare Dairy Health & Beauty 2015 2016 2017
  27. 27. Discounters undergo a high level of share in Europe and Latam with a big potential for further growth in other regions FMCG discounters % share in value / total channel 29 18,8 13,3 8,2 11,7 21 1,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,00,0 9,9 9,2 15,7 15,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 5,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 23,2 20,2 28,5 4,6 0,2 11,8 STEADY GROWTH 2016 value growth +5,1% % Value share of discounters in FMCG market 5,3% % value share Brands: 23,1 Private label: 76,9 Source Kantar Worldpanel, Intage From 2,1% share to 5,3 From 0% share to 2 % Above 5,6% share
  28. 28. Discounters continue to grow share due to specific countries UK, Poland, Russia, and booming in Latam 4,8% 7,0% 13,9% 16,4% 13,0% 27,4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Global Western Europe Eastern Europe 30© Europanel 2015 powered by GfK and Kantar Worldpanel. Global and regional totals are the ‘barometer’ countries in this report: France, Germany, Italy, NL, Spain, UK, Poland, Russia, USA, Brazil, Mexico, China and Japan. Latam Discounter FMCG Value Shares
  29. 29. When cash-and-carry is settled in a country, performance tends to be high Cash-and-carry - % share in value / total channel - 2017 31Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Intage 1.9 9.2 4.8 10.2 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.0 0.8 4.4 3.1 7.3 2.6 1.3 11.2 From 1.0% % share to 1.8% From 0% share to 1.0% Above 1.8% share STRONG GROWTH 2017 value growth +4,4% ALREADY SIGNIFICANT % Value share of cash-and-carry in FMCG market 1.8% BRANDED % value share Brands: 90.0% Private label: 10.0%
  30. 30. Cash-and-carry in Latam: Big format, hard discount look alike in shopping experience, price agressivity Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Peru Source: Kantar Worldpanel 32
  31. 31. 07 Hypermarket is not dead
  32. 32. HM+SM still dominates 49% of trade globally HM+SM - % share in value / total channel – 2017 - 34 19,7 20 32,1 62,5 22 52,1 3,4 47,6 62,7 0,00,0 71,2 63,5 68,4 76,9 49,6 9,1 42 70,8 27,3 28,4 27,4 12,8 44,1 68,6 33,3 73,1 14,9 26,9 SLOWING DOWN 2017 value growth +0,8% % Value share of HM+SM in FMCG market 49,2% % value share Brands: 71,6 Private label: 28,4 Source Kantar Worldpanel, Intage From 20,1% share to49,2 49,2% From 0% share to 20% Above 49,2% share 46
  33. 33. Hypermarkets no longer the #1 choice of shopper on purchase drivers Source: Kantar Retail analysis 35 Metric Choice of Channel (1990s) Choice of Channel (2017) Assortment Price Events Hypermarkets (e.g. Auchan) ~ 60,000 SKUs Hypermarkets (e.g. Walmart) Every day low price proposition Hypermarkets (e.g. Tesco) Seasonal events, Treasure hunts E-commerce (Amazon.com) ~480 million SKUs Discounters (Aldi, Lidl) Every day low price proposition E-commerce (e.g. Alibaba) Singles Day event
  34. 34. 36 Carrefour China Fmart (Yonghui) China Local players leverage their understanding of local needs and couple it with best-in-class execution Better options as global players outperformed by local players Source: Kantar Retail store visits
  35. 35. 08 Out of home, not out of mind
  36. 36. Including out of home almost doubles the size of the market (non alcoholic beverages and snacking food) Source: Kantar Worldpanel (non alcoholic beverages and snacking food), 52 weeks ending June 2017 39 41% 66% 63% 49% 48% 47% 46% 42% 27% 24% 56% 33% 37% 51% 50% 53% 53% 54% 72% 72% 3% 1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 1% Global Thailand Indonesia Mexico China Brazil Spain UK Portugal France OUT OF HOME TAKE HOME E-COMMERCE TAKE HOME
  37. 37. Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 IN HOME OUT OF HOME Importance to observe the full picture In + Out In Spain shoppers tend to reduce their spend in home when going out of home % evolution of occasion in & out – Spain – Non alcoholic beverages and snacking food Source: Kantar Worldpanel In Home & Out of Home purchase panels 40
  38. 38. 10 Win the share of market battle
  39. 39. The strategy to integrate online+ offline is worth if it provides additional revenue Source: Kantar Worldpanel 48 Direct to Consumer Drive Home delivery BRAND Brand store BRICKS AND MORTAR Click & Collect Amazon Go ON LINE PURE PLAYER
  40. 40. 51 INCREMENTAL LOYALTY FOR ALL RETAILERS 29,5 31,7 29,4 41,7 22,7 26,4 25 39,8 28 43,2 26,9 27,4 19,3 21,2 18,7 21,1 13,3 18,4 3 17,8 0,4 7,8 2,5 16,9 0,4 9,4 1 13,4 3,5 20,3 1,7 13,1 1,4 12,4 0,9 10,2 Average shopper Online shopper Average shopper Online shopper Average shopper Online shopper Average shopper Online shopper Average shopper Online shopper Average shopper Online shopper Average shopper Online shopper Average shopper Online shopper Average shopper Online shopper Loyalty to store Loyalty to online
  41. 41. 1 Like for like growth is over 2 Invest on convenience and value for money models 3 Change the way you observe your performance 4 Drive growth reaching the right audience with the right ranging 5 Private label has a great future still 6 Adapted to a world of contrasts 7 Hypermarket is not dead 8 Out of home, not out of mind 9 Winning strategy is about generating traffic first 10 Win the share of market battle

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