Insight on th French Presidential Election by Burson Marsteller

1. For the first time since the inception of the
Fifth Republic in 1958, a president running for
re-election has failed to win the first round
poll.
Nicolas Sarkozy won 27.18% of the vote, finishing
second to the Socialist candidate, François
Hollande (right), who won 28.63% of the vote in
the first round of the presidential election on
Sunday.
Mr Hollande’s victory was not unexpected, with
pre-election polls suggesting that he would win
the run-off against Mr Sarkozy. Instead, the real
surprise of the election was the significant vote for
the far right candidate, Marine Le Pen, who scored
17.9% - a record for a National Front (FN)
candidate.
While Mr Hollande and others on the left consider
the results to be a rejection of the policies of Mr
Sarkozy, the President’s supporters will look to the
possibility of picking up votes from FN supporters.
Opinion polls suggest that between 60 and 70 per
cent of Mrs Le Pen’s voters will back Mr Sarkozy in
the second round.
Meanwhile, Mr Hollande has already secured the
support of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the Left Front
(FdG) candidate, and Eva Joly, the Green candidate.
The second round will be held in two weeks’ time,
on Sunday 6 May, with a televised debate between
Mr Hollande and Mr Sarkozy scheduled for 2 May.
Although she did not repeat the success of her father and
founder of the National Front (FN), Jean-Marie Le Pen, in reaching
the second round in 2002, she did achieve a higher share of the
Despite predictions of voter apathy, turnout for Sunday’s first vote than ten years ago.
round vote was high, at almost 80%. Even though the Marine Le Pen’s success came despite an attempt by Mr Sarkozy
participation rate was slightly lower than in the last poll (in 2007, to squeeze the FN vote by adopting strong positions on
where there was a record turnout of 84%), a higher percentage immigration control, including a promise to reform the European
voted than in any other presidential election since 1974. Union’s Schengen agreement on free movement of EU citizens.
French voters had the choice of ten candidates - a wide field but In 2007, the promises of Mr Sarkozy managed to prise far-right
one that is relatively small number in comparison to other French voters away from Jean-Marie Le Pen. In 2012, the experience of
presidential elections. Some commentators have suggested that his time in office did not prevent these voters moving back to the
the more restricted list of candidates helped voters to better FN to the extent that more than one in six ballots was cast for
understand issues at stake. Marine Le Pen.
The record vote for the FN will have a large bearing on the
second round campaign and the vote on 6 May.
Many observers predicted that the first round of the election
would be crucial: while it seemed fairly clear that the Socialist 4.8 million voters chose Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002; 6.3 million
candidate, François Hollande, and his centre-right opponent and voted for his daughter. Mr Sarkozy now faces a dilemma: he may
current President, Nicolas Sarkozy, would go through to the run- move to the right to pick up FN votes, but in doing so may risk
off, there was much attention on who would emerge in first place. alienating centrists, such as the supporters of François Bayrou,
who may withhold their support for the President.
Mr Sarkozy’s relegation to second position has generally been
interpreted by many - especially on the left - as a rejection of his After the first round, Marine Le Pen stated that Mr Sarkozy had
record as President and his policies. ‘lost’ the election and did not call on her supporters to back the
President in the second round (although it remains to be seen if
The President’s score seems also to have been impacted by a this position will change over the next fortnight).
strong showing for the far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen.

2. Soon after the announcement of the results, analysts almost Presidential election, 1st round
unanimously said Mr Hollande was in a good position to win the
second round. The Socialist candidate will be bolstered by a
strong vote for left-wing parties: the vote for the combined left
came to more than 43%, and Mr Hollande has already received
the backing of the Green candidate, Eva Joly (who is also Chair of
the European Parliament’s Development Committee), and the
tacit approval of the Left Front candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon,
who did not mention Mr Hollande but called on supporters “to
beat Sarkozy”, asking his supporters “to mobilise yourselves as if it
was a case of making me president”.
Ségolène Royal, who ran unsuccessfully as Socialist candidate for
the presidency in 2007, also tried to attract some FN voters,
stating that the Socialists should understand those who backed
the far-right leader.
The centrist candidate, François Bayrou, hoped to repeat his high
score of 2007 (18%), but garnered only 9.1%. He should
announce his support to one of the two remaining candidates
next week.
The result for Mr Mélenchon was a slightly disappointing one,
given his higher poll ratings (of between 13 and 15 per cent).
Despite topping ten per cent, it seems that the ‘radical’ votes
went to Mrs Le Pen instead.
allow governments and others to favour domestic suppliers
(potentially introducing rules unilaterally if there is no agreement
at EU level), and to freeze France’s contribution to the EU budget.
The international press and some local analysts were scornful of
the lack of focus of the campaign. Some secondary issues - like In the end, the campaign and result did highlight the continuing
the reform of the driving licence system or the alleged issue of Europe in France, twenty years after the ‘petit oui’ in the
‘generalisation’ of halal meat in French supermarkets - attracted Maastricht Treaty referendum. Around one-third of voters
much more attention from the candidates and the media than supported anti-EU or Eurosceptic parties - something that, along
issues such as the economic crisis and the public debt. The tone with the current President’s criticism of Schengen and some
of the debate certainly favoured Mrs Le Pen and may have helped aspects of the single market - should worry EU leaders.
to inflate her score.
Another interesting aspect of this presidential campaign is that it
was less passionate than in previous years (despite the high
turnout). Several opinion polls have shown that a significant
Opinion polls taken on Sunday showed that Mr Hollande is likely
section of Mr Hollande’s support were expressing a rejection of
to win the election, taking between 53 and 56 per cent of the vote
the President, rather than voting enthusiastically for the Socialist
in the second round.
candidate. The second round is now considered by many as a
referendum on the performance of Nicolas Sarkozy over the past Mr Sarkozy’s team sees the second round as a new campaign,
five years. and both candidates see the next two weeks as crucial - not least
in picking up endorsements from other candidates. The
organisation of a debate between the two candidates has
Arguments against European Union measures to combat the crisis become a controversial issue. Mr Sarkozy has called for three
seem to have been successful in the campaign. Mr Hollande has debates over the next fortnight – focusing on the economy, social
been vocal in denouncing the austerity measures to which Nicolas issues, and international relations.
Sarkozy agreed, including the Fiscal Compact, and the alignment Mr Hollande rejected the idea, stating that the candidates had
between France and Germany on many issues. If elected, Mr previously agreed on holding the now traditional single televised
Hollande aims to renegotiate the Fiscal Compact and promote debate ahead of the second round vote. Despite accusations from
growth, rather than austerity, as a way of emerging from the Mr Sarkozy’s team that his challenger is running scared, Mr
crisis. Hollande will point to the desperation of a President that is
running second. The debate will probably be held on 2 May, with
Nicolas Sarkozy dismissed criticism of his European policy,
a focus on the economy and employment.
highlighting his management of the crisis, but has also been
critical of EU policies in other areas. If re-elected, he plans to After the election of the President, parliamentary elections will
renegotiate the Schengen agreement, in order to better control take place, on 10 and 17 June, and the new incumbent of the
French borders - seen by many as a ‘dog whistle’ to FN voters. He Elysée Palace will hope to gain a parliamentary majority for the
also promises to fight for more flexible procurement rules that five years to come.