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The Role of Rice in Changing
Food Consumption Patterns in
West Africa
Nathalie M. Me-Nsope & John M. Staatz
Michigan State University
October 2013
Background/Context
• West Africa : Changes - social and economic
environment in the last 25 years
• Structural changes: Urbanization, population, growth
in per capita incomes
• Changes in relative prices – SAP; 1994 FCFA
devaluation*; 2007-2008 global food crisis
• Time-poor urban consumers.
• Changes in the mix of starchy staples, even in rural
areas.
• Regional average rice production < 65% in domestic
rice supply (exceptions: Mali and Nigeria)
• Regional rice import dependence rate= decreased but
still > 75% for some (Senegal)
Research Relevance and Contribution
Relevance
I.Implications for food security (availability)
II.Implications for developing successful production & marketing
strategies for rice & other starchy staples in WA
Contribution
Empirical Aggregate-Level Food Demand studies
◦ Relative prices versus structural factors
 Pre-devaluation-is the high rice consumption due to lower
relative price of rice/wheat?
 E.g. Delgado (1989);Delgado and Reardon (1992)- structural factors

 Post 1994 CFAF devaluation-Have rice prices increased
enough to shift consumption away from rice?
 E.g. Diangana et al. (1999)—urban WA-Expected shift didn’t occur.
Research Objectives, Methods & Data
1. To examine changing patterns of rice consumption in the
context of broader consumption shifts in all starchy staples
(cereals plus roots & tubers) in ECOWAS in 1980-2009.
–

Descriptive analysis –FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheet 1980-2009
•
•
•

Trend in the level of food availability;
Trend in rice share in starchy staples calories;
Trend in the composition of food availability by major starchy staple
type.

1. Econometric analysis of the determinants of rice share in
starchy staple calories.
–

More data: Urban population shares and GDP per capita (World
Bank).
Findings
A. Descriptive Analysis
I.

Trends in the level of food availability
• Overall- shift towards greater daily energy availability (DEA);
Driven mainly by starchy staples (SS) calorie availability. SS share
in per capita DEA > 50% for most.
Findings Cont.
II . Trend in rice share (%) in starchy staples calories
Findings Cont.

III. Trends in Supply by Major Starchy Staple Type(kg/capita)
Mali
Cape Verde
Findings, Cont.

III. Trends in Supply by Major Starchy Staple Type(kg/capita)

Senegal

Nigeria
Findings Cont.
B. Econometric Analysis
Model:

Where:
Sit= rice share (%) in SS calories in country i at time t;
Xt= per capita GDP (constant $ US) ;
di= country dummies; and Ut= urban population share
Estimation Method: Ordinary Least Squares.
Findings Cont.

Estimated Effect of Urbanization
on Rice Share(%) in Starchy Staples Calories.

Estimation Results
• Sample size=450; R2= 0.97;
(Prob>F = 0.0000).
• 10/15 country dummiesstatistically significant.
• A 100US$ rise in GDP/capita
2 % increase in rice calorie
share.
• Mixed evidence of
relationship between
urbanization and rice share in
SS calories

Country

Effect (%) of a 1% change in
Urban population Share

Benin
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Cote d’Ivoire
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea Bissau
Liberia
Mali
Niger
Nigeria
Senegal
Sierra-Leone
Togo

Statistically significant at 5% (*) ; 10% (**)

0.67*
0.17
0.30**
0.48*
-1.04*
0.29*
1.11*
0.52*
-0.86*
0.96*
1.91*
-0.22*
1.06*
-1.71*
0.55*
Conclusions and Policy Implications(PI)
1. Evidence of a diversification in the composition of SS supply and
some substitution amongst major SS types (more than rice/wheat
VS. traditional SS). It involves other SS (cassava, yams, sweet
potatoes, Irish potatoes and maize).
– PI-1: Scope to encourage ongoing diversification & substitution in
consumption

1. Positive relationship between rice calorie share and GDP/capita
 growth in rice demand as people get richer.
– PI-2: Efforts geared towards expanding rice production and reducing the
unit cost of production are necessary to capture this growing effective
demand.

•

Effect of urbanization-conventional wisdom holds in 11/15.
– Special cases:
• The Gambia and Nigeria- Data problems
• Sierra Leone and Liberia-Civil disruption
THANK YOU !!!
MERCI !!!

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Th3_The Role of Rice in Changing Food Consumption Patterns in West Africa

  • 1. The Role of Rice in Changing Food Consumption Patterns in West Africa Nathalie M. Me-Nsope & John M. Staatz Michigan State University October 2013
  • 2. Background/Context • West Africa : Changes - social and economic environment in the last 25 years • Structural changes: Urbanization, population, growth in per capita incomes • Changes in relative prices – SAP; 1994 FCFA devaluation*; 2007-2008 global food crisis • Time-poor urban consumers. • Changes in the mix of starchy staples, even in rural areas. • Regional average rice production < 65% in domestic rice supply (exceptions: Mali and Nigeria) • Regional rice import dependence rate= decreased but still > 75% for some (Senegal)
  • 3. Research Relevance and Contribution Relevance I.Implications for food security (availability) II.Implications for developing successful production & marketing strategies for rice & other starchy staples in WA Contribution Empirical Aggregate-Level Food Demand studies ◦ Relative prices versus structural factors  Pre-devaluation-is the high rice consumption due to lower relative price of rice/wheat?  E.g. Delgado (1989);Delgado and Reardon (1992)- structural factors  Post 1994 CFAF devaluation-Have rice prices increased enough to shift consumption away from rice?  E.g. Diangana et al. (1999)—urban WA-Expected shift didn’t occur.
  • 4. Research Objectives, Methods & Data 1. To examine changing patterns of rice consumption in the context of broader consumption shifts in all starchy staples (cereals plus roots & tubers) in ECOWAS in 1980-2009. – Descriptive analysis –FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheet 1980-2009 • • • Trend in the level of food availability; Trend in rice share in starchy staples calories; Trend in the composition of food availability by major starchy staple type. 1. Econometric analysis of the determinants of rice share in starchy staple calories. – More data: Urban population shares and GDP per capita (World Bank).
  • 5. Findings A. Descriptive Analysis I. Trends in the level of food availability • Overall- shift towards greater daily energy availability (DEA); Driven mainly by starchy staples (SS) calorie availability. SS share in per capita DEA > 50% for most.
  • 6. Findings Cont. II . Trend in rice share (%) in starchy staples calories
  • 7. Findings Cont. III. Trends in Supply by Major Starchy Staple Type(kg/capita) Mali Cape Verde
  • 8. Findings, Cont. III. Trends in Supply by Major Starchy Staple Type(kg/capita) Senegal Nigeria
  • 9. Findings Cont. B. Econometric Analysis Model: Where: Sit= rice share (%) in SS calories in country i at time t; Xt= per capita GDP (constant $ US) ; di= country dummies; and Ut= urban population share Estimation Method: Ordinary Least Squares.
  • 10. Findings Cont. Estimated Effect of Urbanization on Rice Share(%) in Starchy Staples Calories. Estimation Results • Sample size=450; R2= 0.97; (Prob>F = 0.0000). • 10/15 country dummiesstatistically significant. • A 100US$ rise in GDP/capita 2 % increase in rice calorie share. • Mixed evidence of relationship between urbanization and rice share in SS calories Country Effect (%) of a 1% change in Urban population Share Benin Burkina Faso Cape Verde Cote d’Ivoire Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea Bissau Liberia Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal Sierra-Leone Togo Statistically significant at 5% (*) ; 10% (**) 0.67* 0.17 0.30** 0.48* -1.04* 0.29* 1.11* 0.52* -0.86* 0.96* 1.91* -0.22* 1.06* -1.71* 0.55*
  • 11. Conclusions and Policy Implications(PI) 1. Evidence of a diversification in the composition of SS supply and some substitution amongst major SS types (more than rice/wheat VS. traditional SS). It involves other SS (cassava, yams, sweet potatoes, Irish potatoes and maize). – PI-1: Scope to encourage ongoing diversification & substitution in consumption 1. Positive relationship between rice calorie share and GDP/capita  growth in rice demand as people get richer. – PI-2: Efforts geared towards expanding rice production and reducing the unit cost of production are necessary to capture this growing effective demand. • Effect of urbanization-conventional wisdom holds in 11/15. – Special cases: • The Gambia and Nigeria- Data problems • Sierra Leone and Liberia-Civil disruption