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Agriculture Brief
July, 2009




                    1
Monthly Highlights




                     CONTENTS

                     2	    Funds	Making	Hyperinflation	Bets
                     2	    Inflation	Protection
                     3	    Borrower	of	Last	Resort
                     4	    US	Interest	Payments	Will	Balloon
                     5	    Invest	in	What	China	Needs
                     5	    Investing	in	the	New	Environment
                     9	    Global	Money	Supply	Analysis
                     11	   No-till	Farming
                     11	   Canadian	Farmers	Diversify
                     13	   Appendix




                                                           1
Global Macro Outlook




FUNDS	MAKING	HYPERINFLATION	BETS                          INFLATION	PROTECTION

There have been several fund launches recently with       Agcapita’s view is that there have been a growing
hyperinflation as their underlying investment premise.    number of signs that the monetary actions taken by
Pitched as high-risk, high-return propositions these      the worlds central banks are generating inflation:
funds are predicated on what the founders perceive            − Long Bond Yields: An increase in yields for
as the inflationary policies of the worlds governments           long-term bonds, likely reflecting, in part, the
and central banks. Hyperinflation is clearly not                 greater premium investors are demanding to
a mainstream view, but it is one beginning to be                 compensate for inflation. The yield on 10-year
contemplated by high profile investors. The primary              US Treasuries recently rose to a six-month
reason is a growing belief that the world’s central              high of 3.75 percent. That increase helped lift
banks, most particularly the US Federal Reserve, will            US 30-year mortgage rates above 5 percent
be reluctant to raise interest rates and reduce the              for the first time in nearly three months.
money supply when the circumstances require. The              − Gold Prices: The increasing price of the
two dedicated hyperinflation funds are:                          traditional inflation hedge gold. Recently an
    − Excelsior Fund from 36 South Investment                    ounce of gold approached US$1,000, a level
        Managers Ltd. - targets returns that will be             just below its all-time high set in March 2008.
        five times the average annual rate of inflation       − Energy Prices; Prices of energy and energy
        of the Group of Five economies. Founder                  stocks, seen as a hedge against inflation,
        Jerry Haworth predicts that the world is “in             have been increasing.
        the lag period between when the seeds of
        inflation are sown and when their off- spring,    Curtis Arledge, of the fund management firm
        that is higher prices, are evident for all to     BlackRock, has allocated about 5 percent of the
        see.” Haworth feels that most investors are       fixed-income portfolios he manages to inflation
        underestimating the risk of inflation.            hedges. BlackRock is one of the world’s largest
    − Universa Investments LP – Universa is               fund management firms with over US$1.0 trillion
        advised by “Black Swan” author Nassim             in assets under management. As far as inflation
        Taleb, which has constructed a strategy           protection, according to Mr. Arledge “Anytime you’re
        to profit from the premise that US stimulus       buying insurance, you want to buy at a time when the
        efforts will result in hyperinflation.            probability of needing it is low, because it theoretically
                                                          costs less. You don’t want to buy fire insurance when
                                                          you see smoke coming out of your house.”




2
Global Macro Outlook (continued)




John Osbon, the head of Osbon Capital                    GOVERNMENT	AS	BORROWER	OF	LAST	RESORT
Management, says that to take advantage of the
likely inflationary trends ahead, investors should buy   Proponents of the deflation viewpoint rely primarily
Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, which trade     on the view that “the federal reserve and the banks
like standard Treasuries but have inflation protection   can create credit, but people may decide not to
built in. “Ten-year inflation is priced at 140 basis     borrow.” However, even if the private sector refuses
points right now, meaning that the term structure        to borrow money at 0% interest, central banks and
of interest rates say that inflation will be 1.4% per    governments can do the borrowing and buying
year for the next 10 years,” he says. “There is no       directly. Its clear that the worlds’ governments are
inflation in sight right now, which is why we believe    doing exactly this - stepping in to replace private
everyone should own some inflation protection.” In       sector borrowing and consumption – effectively
other words, buy it when its inexpensive. “To my         becoming the “borrower of last resort” to generate
knowledge, no nation has ever run fiscal deficits        inflation.
of over 6% without triggering inflation,” he says.
“Our budget deficit this year is 12%!” Osbon
recommends a 5% to 15% portfolio allocation
to inflation hedging bonds and also considering
commodities as another way to play inflation, though
                                                                           CHART	1:
he says they deserve their own allocation.
                                                                GOVERNMENT	DEBT	ISSUED	ANNUALLY
Agcapita views inflation indexed government bonds
                                                          $3.0 trillion                           +500%
less favourably than many investment managers.
The key weakness of inflation protected government        2.5                                     +400
bonds is that the government gets to calculate            2.0                  U.S.                            Britain
the rate of inflation. The incentive for government                                               +300
                                                          1.5                                                                U.S.
is always to under-report inflation for a variety of                                    Euro
                                                                                        zone      +200
reasons. This under-reporting risk is best summed         1.0
up by a quote from fund manager Marc Faber –              0.5                                     +100                     Euro
“Never ask the barber if you need a haircut. Never                                                                         zone
                                                           0                           Britain      0
ask the realtor if the house you are considering
buying is a bargain at the price offered. And never            05   06    07    08     09 10         05   06   07   08    09 10
                                                                                      projected                          projected
ask the government to calculate the rate of inflation
when it can save millions of dollars in cost-of-living   Source: The New York Times
adjustments.”




                                                                                                                                  3
Global Macro Outlook (continued)




Where will the money to fund this borrowing come         US	INTEREST	PAYMENTS	WILL	BALLOON
from? These are the main sources:
    1. Domestic private investors                        The US is expected to issue more than $5 trillion
    2. Foreign private investors                         in additional debt over the next 18 months.
    3. Foreign central banks                             Assuming US long bond yields stay under 5% the
    4. Domestic central banks                            US government’s total annual interest payments are
                                                         projected to exceed $800 billion, up almost 500%
Of the four funding sources it seems only likely that    from 2009. Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff
in the US the Federal reserve will be willing and able   predicts for every percentage point higher over 5% on
to step in and absorb the amounts of debt issuance       long bonds, the U.S. government will have to pay an
that the US fiscal deficit will require – direct debt    extra $170 billion in annual interest payments.
monetization and highly inflationary.



                CHART	2:	                                                                   CHART	3
    GOVERNMENT	REPLACES	THE	CONSUMER	
                                                                            Actual                                 Projected
        Rise in Government Borrowing Offsets                                                                 CBO             White House
                Fall in Private borrowing                    $236.2 billion
                                                                                                             estimate        estimate
20%
                                                                         ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19
15%                                                          0 ‘00 ‘01
10%
                                                          -400
5%
0%                                                        -800
-5%
     3/52
     3/55
     3/58
     3/61
     3/64
     3/67
     3/70
     3/73
     3/76
     3/79
     3/82
     3/85
     3/88
     3/91
     3/94
     3/97
     3/03
     3/06
     3/09




                                                         -1,200

          Firms and Households      Federal Government   -1,600
Source: www.crg.org/cgs                                                                                    White House: - $1.75 trillion
                                                                       CBO: - $1.85 trillion
                                                         In Billions




4
Global Macro Outlook (continued)




   INVEST	IN	WHAT	CHINA	NEEDS                                                                                                               INVESTING	IN	THE	NEW	ENVIRONMENT

   As an investor you should focus on being long                                                                                            Bill Gross is one of the world’s largest mutual fund
   the things for which China has high demand but                                                                                           managers, focusing mostly on bonds. The following
   insufficient domestic production.                                                                                                        is a complete reproduction of a recent investment
                                                                                                                                            commentary from Bill Gross that makes very
   The further the move into the lower left-hand corner                                                                                     interesting reading.
   of Chart 4, the greater the exposure to Chinese
   demand factors for the item in question. Currently                                                                                       “Staying Rich in the New Normal By Bill Gross
   that means potash, soybeans, iron ore and oil. In                                                                                        ‘Behind every great fortune lies a great crime.’ Balzac.
   these commodities, China’s share of world production                                                                                     Balzac was on to something 200 years ago, but to
   is low (for potash, China represents less than 5% of                                                                                     be fair to modern day multi-millionaires, the only real
   global production and China’s production of potash                                                                                       way to accumulate wealth prior to the 18th century
   is little more than 20% of its domestic demand and                                                                                       was to steal it, or tax it, I suppose, as was the case
   its ability to satisfy domestic demand with domestic                                                                                     with kings and their royal courts. It was only with the
   production is low). Source Agora                                                                                                         advent of capitalism and annual productivity gains
                                                                                                                                            that entrepreneurs, investors, and risk-takers with
                                                                                                                                            luck or pinpoint-timing could jump to the head of the
                                                                                                                                            pack and accumulate what came to be recognized
                                                                                                                                            as a fortune. Still, the negative connotations persist.
                                                   CHART	4:	BUY	WHAT	CHINA	NEEDS                                                            I remember a cocktail party in the early 80s where a
                                                                                                                                            somewhat inebriated guest engaged me in a debate
                                             China Net Buyer                                              China Net Seller
                                                                                                                                            about the merits of capitalism. “You’re filthy rich,” he
                                        45                                                                                                  said, which struck me as most unfair from a number
China’s Share of World Production (%)




                                        40                                        Coal                       Tin           Lead
                                                                                                                                            of angles. First of all, he hadn’t seen anything yet, I
                                        35
                                                                                                   Zinc       Steel Products                thought, and second, I wasn’t quite sure where the
                                        30
                                                                                                               Aluminum                     “filthy” came from. Resentment that he’d missed
                                        25
                                                              Iron Ore                                                                      out on my presumed good deal, I suppose, and in
                                        20
                                                                    Stainless Steel      Copper                                             the process using a hackneyed phrase that was
                                        15
                                                                                                                                            bitter and biting, yet had some context of historical
                                        10
                                        5
                                              Potash              Crude Oil                                                                 sociological relativity. Still, he might have been on to
                                        0
                                                  Soy Beans
                                                                                                                                            something there - not about me, hopefully, because
                                             20    30    40        50     60     70      80       90   100     110   120    130   140 150   I’ve always felt that while PIMCO has prospered, it’s
                                                  Chinese Production as a % of China’s Demand                                               only because its clients have benefitted even more
   Source: Agora                                                                                                                            so - but about the developing sense of one-sided,
                                                                                                                                            perhaps off-sided wealth generation that was to
                                                                                                                                            dominate the next several decades. Granted, we had




                                                                                                                                                                                                   5
Global Macro Outlook (continued)




Bill Gates and Steve Jobs and other true capitalistic      much wealth in proportion to the rest of the world. Its
dynamos who benefitted society immeasurably. But           fortune-producing capabilities seem to be declining,
growing percentages of fortunes were being made by         which might suggest that its relative standard of living
those who could borrow or aggregate other people’s         is doing so as well. If so, the implications are serious,
money. Because our economy was still in a relatively       not just for Donald Trump but for wage earners
early stage of leveraging, those who borrowed money        and ordinary citizens, as reflected in their income
and used it to invest in higher-risk yet higher-return     levels and unemployment rates. Stockholders,
financial or real assets didn’t require a lot of skill,    401(k) investors, and yes, bond managers will be
they just needed to be able to convince a bank or an       affected too. Last week’s furor over the possibility
insurance company to lend them some money. After           of an eventual downgrade of America’s AAA rating
that, the secular wave of leverage would be enough         demonstrates that only too clearly. On the night of
to multiply their meager equity many times over and        May 20, Standard & Poor’s announced a downgrade
carry them to a beach where a fortune awaited them         watch for the United Kingdom and since the U.S.
much like a pirate’s buried treasure.                      and U.K. are Siamese-connected, financially-
                                                           levered twins, the implications were obvious: the
I remember as a child my parents telling me, perhaps       U.S. might be next. In the space of 48 hours, the
resentfully, that only a doctor, airline pilot, or a car   dollar declined 2%, and U.S. stocks and long-term
dealer could afford to join a country club. My how         bonds were down by similar amounts. Such a trifecta
things have changed. Now, as I write this overlooking      rarely occurs but in retrospect it all made sense: a
the 16th hole on the Vintage Club near Palm Springs,       downgrade would cast a negative light on the world’s
the only golfers who shank seven irons into the lake       reserve currency, and since stocks and bonds are
are real estate developers, investment bankers, or         only present values of a forward stream of dollar-
heads of investment management companies. The              denominated receipts, they went down as well.
rich are different, not only in the manner intoned by F.
Scott Fitzgerald, but also in who they are and what        The potential downgrade, while still far off in the future
they do for a living. Whether some or all of them are      in PIMCO’s opinion, seemed dubious at first blush.
filthy is a judgment for society and history to make.      While country ratings factor in numerous subjective
Of one thing you can be sure however: over the             qualifications such as contract rights, military might,
next several decades, the ability to make a fortune        and advanced secondary education, the primary
by using other people’s money will be a lot harder.        focus has always been on the objective measurement
Deleveraging, reregulation, increased taxation, and        of debt levels, in this case sovereign debt, as a
compensation limits will allow only the most skillful -    percentage of GDP. Yet, as shown in Table 1, both
or the shadiest - into the Balzac or Forbes 400.           the U.S. and the U.K. entered the Great Recession
                                                           with attractive ratios compared to such grievous
Readers who are interested in such things as the           offenders (and AA rated) as Japan.
Forbes annual list of hoity-toities will have noticed
that more and more of them are global, not U.S.            Yet as the markets recognized rather abruptly last
citizens. The U.S., in other words, is not producing as    week, both countries seem to be closing the gap


6
Global Macro Outlook (continued)




in record time. To zero in on the U.S. of A., its           ephemeral taxes on leverage-based capital gains that
annual deficit of nearly $1.5 trillion is 10% of GDP        in turn were due to the secular decline of inflation and
alone, a number never approached since the 1930s            interest rates that at some point had to bottom. We
Depression. While policymakers, including the               are reaping the consequences of that long period of
President and Treasury Secretary Geithner, assure           overconsumption and undersavings encouraged by
voters and financial markets alike that such a path is      the belief that lower and lower taxes would cure all.
unsustainable and that a return to fiscal conservatism
is just around the recovery’s corner, it is hard to         The current annual deficit of $1.5 trillion does not
comprehend exactly how that more balanced rabbit            even address the “pig in the python,” baby boomer,
can be pulled out of Washington’s hat.                      demographic squeeze on resources that looms
                                                            straight ahead. Private think tanks such as The
Private sector deleveraging, reregulation and reduced       Blackstone Group and even studies by government
consumption all argue for a real growth rate in the         agencies, such as the Congressional Budget Office,
U.S. that requires a government checkbook for years         promise that Federal spending for Social Security,
to come just to keep its head above the 1% required         Medicare, and Medicaid will collectively increase
to stabilize unemployment. Five more years of those         by 6% of GDP over the next 20 years, leading
10% of GDP deficits will quickly raise America’s            to even larger deficits unless taxes are increased
debt to GDP level to over 100%, a level that the            proportionately. Collectively these three programs
rating services - and more importantly the markets          represent an approximate $40 trillion liability that will
- recognize as a point of no return. At 100% debt to        have to be paid. If not, you can add that present
GDP, the interest on the debt might amount to 5% or         value figure to the current $10 trillion deficit and reach
6% of annual output alone, and it quickly compounds         a 300% of GDP figure - a number that resembles
as the interest upon interest becomes as heavy              Latin American economies such as Argentina and
as those “sixteen tons” in Tennessee Ernie Ford’s           Brazil over the past century.
famous song of a West Virginia coal miner. “You load
sixteen tons and whattaya get? Another day older            So the rather conservative U.S. government debt
and deeper in debt.” Pretty soon you need 17, 18, 19        ratio shown in Chart 5 will likely be anything but in
tons just to stay even and that describes the potential     less than a decade’s time. The immediate question
fate of the United States as the deficits string out into   is who is going to buy all of this debt? Estimates
the Obama and other future Administrations. The fact        suggest gross Treasury issuance of up to $3 trillion
is that supply-side economics was a partial con job         this calendar year and net offerings close to $2
from the get-go. Granted, from the 80% marginal tax         trillion - almost four times last year’s supply. Prior to
rate that existed in the U.S. and the U.K. into the late    2009, it was enough to count on the recycling of the
60s and 70s, lower taxes do incentivize productive          U.S. trade/current account deficit to fund Treasury
investment and entrepreneurial risk-taking. But below       borrowing requirements. Now, however, with that
40% or so, it just pads the pockets of the rich and         amount approximating only $500 billion, it is obvious
destabilizes the country’s financial balance sheet.         that the Chinese and other surplus nations cannot
Bill Clinton’s magical surpluses were really due to         fund the deficit even if they were fully on board -


                                                                                                                        7
Global Macro Outlook (continued)




which they are not. Someone else has got to write          with its publicly announced and near daily purchases
checks for up to $1.5 trillion additional Treasury notes   of Treasuries and Agencies at a $400 billion annual
and bonds. Well, you’ve got the banks and even             rate. That in combination with a buy ticket for over
individual investors to sponge up some of the excess,      $1 trillion of Agency mortgages has been the primary
but a huge, difficult to estimate marginal supply will     reason why capital markets - both corporate bonds
have to be bought. The concern is that this can be         and stocks - are behaving so well. But the Fed
accomplished in only two ways - both of which have         must tread carefully here. These purchases result
serious consequences for U.S. and global financial         in an expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, which
markets. The first and most recent development             ultimately could have inflationary implications. In turn,
is the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve         nervous holders of dollar obligations are beginning
and the rise of intermediate and long-term bond            to look for diversification in other currencies, selling
yields. While the Treasury can easily afford the higher    Treasury bonds in the process.
interest expense in the short term, the pressure it
puts on mortgage and corporate rates represents a          The obvious solution to both dollar weakness and
serious threat to the fragile “greenshoots” recovery       higher yields is to move quickly towards a more
now underway. Secondly, the buyer of last resort in        balanced budget once a sustained recovery is
recent months has become the Federal Reserve,              assured, but don’t count on the former or the latter.
                                                           It is probable that trillion-dollar deficits are here to
                                                           stay because any recovery is likely to reflect “new
                                                           normal” GDP growth rates of 1%-2% not 3%+ as
             CHART	5:	SIXTEEN	TONS                         we used to have. Staying rich in this future world
                                                           will require strategies that reflect this altered vision
                                                           of global economic growth and delivered financial
                                Federal Gov’t Debt         markets. Bond investors should therefore confine
         Country
                                  to GDP Ratio             maturities to the front end of yield curves where
           U.S.                        45%                 continuing low yields and downside price protection
           U.K.                        50%                 is more probable. Holders of dollars should diversify
                                                           their own baskets before central banks and sovereign
          Japan                       171%                 wealth funds ultimately do the same. All investors
         Germany                       39%                 should expect considerably lower rates of return than
         Canada                        42%                 what they grew accustomed to only a few years ago.
          China                        20%                 Staying rich in the “new normal” may not require
                                                           investors to resemble Balzac as much as Will Rogers,
           Brazil                      36%                 who opined in the early 30s that he wasn’t as much
Source: PIMCO. All data as of Q4: 2008, sourced from       concerned about the return on his money as the
individual country national accounts                       return of his money.”




8
Global Macro Outlook (continued)




GLOBAL	MONEY	SUPPLY	ANALYSIS

Financial commentator Mike Hewitt has conducted                             Chart 7 shows the growth of aggregate money
a very useful analysis of global monetary aggregates                        supply since 1971, the last year that US dollars were
in an attempt to arrive at a measure of global                              convertible to gold.
money supply. There are several different monetary
aggregates used to measure a nation’s money                                 It is worth noting that four currencies (EUR, USD,
supply. These monetary aggregates can be thought                            JPY and CNY) comprise nearly 75% of all circulating
of as forming a continuum from most liquid LMO to                           banknotes and coins. (See Appendix for data).
the least liquid LM3.
                                                                            Chart 8 shows the historical outstanding stocks of
Chart 6 shows the countries used to measure M0,                             M0 for currencies analyzed by Hewitt.
M1, M2 and M3 in Hewitt’s study.



    CHART	6:	138	COUNTRIES	INCLUDED	IN	                                                        CHART	7:	ESTIMATED	GLOBAL	MONETARY	
                  ANALYSIS                                                                      AGGREGATES	(JAN	1971	TO	MAY	2009)

                                                                                               60

                                                                                               50
                                                                         (in US $ trillions)




                                                                                               40

                                                                                               30

                                                                                               20

                                                                                               10

     European Union      West African Union      Central African Union                          0
                  Data Aavailable      No Data Available
                                                                                                    1971
                                                                                                    1973
                                                                                                    1975
                                                                                                    1977
                                                                                                    1979
                                                                                                    1981
                                                                                                    1983
                                                                                                    1985
                                                                                                    1987
                                                                                                    1989
                                                                                                    1991
                                                                                                    1993
                                                                                                    1995
                                                                                                    1997
                                                                                                    1999
                                                                                                    2001
                                                                                                    2003
                                                                                                    2005
                                                                                                    2007
                                                                                                    2009




Source: www.dollardaze.org
                                                                                               M3 - Broad Money
                                                                                               M2 - Money + Close Substitutes (Quasi-Money)
                                                                                               M1 - Currency in Circulation + Demand Deposits (Money)
                                                                                               M0 - Currency in Circulation
                                                                            Source: www.dollardaze.org



                                                                                                                                                    9
Global Macro Outlook (continued)




 Though the exact numbers are subject to
 interpretation, the trend is clear. Global money supply
 is increasing at an accelerating rate. In 1990, the total
 amount of currency in circulation exceeded US$1
 trillion. Twelve years later, the total amount exceeded
 US$2 trillion. This doubled again less than six years
 later.




                      CHART	8	ESTIMATED	GLOBAL	CURRENCY	IN	
                        CIRCULATION	(JAN	1971	TO	MAY	2009)

                      4.5
                      4.0
                      3.5
(in US $ trillions)




                      3.0
                      2.5
                      2.0
                      1.5
                      1.0
                       .5
                      0.0
                            1971
                            1973
                            1975
                            1977
                            1979
                            1981
                            1983
                            1985
                            1987
                            1989
                            1991
                            1993
                            1995
                            1997
                            1999
                            2001
                            2003
                            2005
                            2007
                            2009




                            US Dollar (USD)   Japanese Yen (JPY)
                            Euro (EUR)        Chinese Renminbi (CNY)
                            All Others
   Source: www.dollardaze.org




 10
Farmland Update




NO-TILL	FARMING

No-till farming (sometimes called zero tillage or                                                                                                                                                     At the World Congress on Conservation Agriculture
conservation tillage) has been part of the evolution of                                                                                                                                               held in Kenya in 2005, it was reported that farmers
grain growing - a way to produce more grain with less                                                                                                                                                 are showing increased interest in no-tillage and the
effort, fuel, erosion and water loss.      The countries                                                                                                                                              technology is being applied to more than 95 million
with the largest acreage under no-till are the US, Brazil,                                                                                                                                            hectares worldwide. These six countries all have
Argentina, Canada, Australia and Paraguay. Canadian                                                                                                                                                   adoption areas above one million hectares (see
farmers, and in particular Saskatchewan farmers, are                                                                                                                                                  Chart 9).
world leaders in no-till farming practices. In 1991,
6.7% of Canadian farmland was in no-till cultivation                                                                                                                                                  CANADIAN	FARMERS	DIVERSIFY
but by 2006 the average was 46.4% according to
the Department of Agriculture. In Saskatchewan                                                                                                                                                        In 2006, red meats, grains and oilseeds, and dairy
the averages are even better. In 1991, 10.4% of                                                                                                                                                       accounted for almost 70% of total farm market
Saskatchewan farmland was in no-till cultivation but by                                                                                                                                               receipts, down from 74% in 1990 (See Chart
2006 the average had climbed to 60.2%.                                                                                                                                                                10). Since 1990, the contribution of grains and




  CHART	9:	EXTENT	OF	NO-TILLAGE	ADOPTION	                                                                                                                                                                   CHART	10:	FARM	MARKET	RECIPTS	BY	
                WORLDWIDE                                                                                                                                                                                      COMMODITY,	1990	AND	2006

  26                                                                                                                                                                                                  Total $20.1B                                   Total $32.4B
                                                                                           Area under no-tillage
  24                                                                                                                                                                                                      $1.1 5.2%       Fruits & Vegetables    7.0%    $2.3
  22                                                                                       (million hectares) 2004-05                                                                                                       Poultry & Eggs
                                                                                                                                                                                                          $1.7 8.4%                              7.3%    $2.4
  20
  28                                                                                                                                                                                                      $2.5 12.5%    Other Farm Commodities   16.5% $5.3
  16
  14
  12                                                                                                                                                                                                     $3.2   15.7%            Dairy           14.9%   $4.8
  10
   8
   6                                                                                                                                                                                                            27.8%      Grains & Oilseeds
   4
                                                                                                                                                                                                         $5.6                                    23.3%   $7.6
   2
   0
       USA

             Brazil

                      Argentina

                                  Canada

                                           Australia

                                                       Indo-Gangetic-Plains

                                                                              Paraguay

                                                                                         Bolivia

                                                                                                   South Africa

                                                                                                                  Spain

                                                                                                                          Venezuela

                                                                                                                                      Uruguay

                                                                                                                                                France Chile

                                                                                                                                                               Colombia

                                                                                                                                                                          China

                                                                                                                                                                                  Others (estimate)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                30.4%         Red Meats          31.0% $10.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                         $6.1

                                                                                                                                                                                                                1990                             2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Source: Statistics Canada



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                11
Farmland Update (continued)




oilseeds, dairy, and poultry and eggs to total farm
                                                      CHART	11:	REGIONAL	FARM	MARKET	RECEIPTS	
market receipts are gradually declining, while that
                                                             BY	COMMODITY	SHARE,	2006
of red meats, fruits and vegetables, and other farm
commodities are increasing.                           Percent
                                                      100
In the Prairies, red meats have surpassed grains      90
                                                      80
and oilseeds as the most important commodity in       70
dollar terms. In the Atlantic Provinces, other farm   60
commodities such as special crops contributed about   50
50% to farm market receipts in 2006. In Central       40
                                                      30
Canada, red meats and dairy are the most important    20
commodities in dollar terms.                          10
                                                       0
                                                             B.C.    Prairies   Ont.   Que       Atlantic
                                                            Red Meats                  Grains & Oilseeds
                                                            Other Farm Commodities     Daiy
                                                            Poultry & Eggs             Fruits & Vegetables
                                                        Source: Statistics Canada




12
Appendix




                   TABLE	1

                                       Percent
                          Amount         of all
  Country/     Currency    (Billion   Circulating
   Union        Code        US$)      Currency
 European
                EUR       1035.2      24.30%
  Union
   United
                USD       850.7       19.97%
   States
   Japan         JPY      762.4       17.90%
   China        CNY       492.3       11.56%
    India        INR      140.3        3.29%
   Russia       RUR       110.8        2.60%
   United
                GBP          87.5      2.05%
  Kingdom
  Canada        CAD          43.8      1.03%
 Switzerland    CHF          40.3      0.95%
   Poland       PLN          37.7      0.89%
   Brazil       BRL          37.3      0.88%
   Mexico       MXN          34.3      0.81%
  Australia     AUD          32.4      0.76%
 Others (89)      -       554.9       13.03%




                                                    13
DISCLAIMER:	

                                   The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials
                                   contained here in are provided as the date hereof and are subject to change
                                   without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections
                                   and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous
                                   sources and Agcapita Partners LP (“AGCAPITA”) and its affiliates make
                                   every effort to ensure that the contents hereof have been compiled or
                                   derived from sources believed to be reliable and to contain information and
                                   opinions which are accurate and complete. However, neither AGCAPITA
                                   nor its affiliates have independently verified or make any representation or
                                   warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, take no responsibility for
                                   any errors and omissions which maybe contained herein or accept any
                                   liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the
                                   information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained
                                   herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other third
                                   party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or user).
                                   Information may be available to AGCAPITA and/or its affiliates that is not
                                   reflected herein. The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other
                                   materials contained herein are not to be construed as an offer to sell, a
                                   solicitation for or an offer to buy, any products or services referenced herein
                                   (including, without limitation, any commodities, securities or other financial
                                   instruments), nor shall such information, opinions, estimates, projections and
                                   other materials be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation
                                   to enter into any transaction. Additional information is available by contacting
                                   AGCAPITA or its relevant affiliate directly.




#400,	2424	4th	Street	SW    Tel:	+1.403.218.6506            www.agcapita.com
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Agcapita July 2009 Update

  • 2. Monthly Highlights CONTENTS 2 Funds Making Hyperinflation Bets 2 Inflation Protection 3 Borrower of Last Resort 4 US Interest Payments Will Balloon 5 Invest in What China Needs 5 Investing in the New Environment 9 Global Money Supply Analysis 11 No-till Farming 11 Canadian Farmers Diversify 13 Appendix 1
  • 3. Global Macro Outlook FUNDS MAKING HYPERINFLATION BETS INFLATION PROTECTION There have been several fund launches recently with Agcapita’s view is that there have been a growing hyperinflation as their underlying investment premise. number of signs that the monetary actions taken by Pitched as high-risk, high-return propositions these the worlds central banks are generating inflation: funds are predicated on what the founders perceive − Long Bond Yields: An increase in yields for as the inflationary policies of the worlds governments long-term bonds, likely reflecting, in part, the and central banks. Hyperinflation is clearly not greater premium investors are demanding to a mainstream view, but it is one beginning to be compensate for inflation. The yield on 10-year contemplated by high profile investors. The primary US Treasuries recently rose to a six-month reason is a growing belief that the world’s central high of 3.75 percent. That increase helped lift banks, most particularly the US Federal Reserve, will US 30-year mortgage rates above 5 percent be reluctant to raise interest rates and reduce the for the first time in nearly three months. money supply when the circumstances require. The − Gold Prices: The increasing price of the two dedicated hyperinflation funds are: traditional inflation hedge gold. Recently an − Excelsior Fund from 36 South Investment ounce of gold approached US$1,000, a level Managers Ltd. - targets returns that will be just below its all-time high set in March 2008. five times the average annual rate of inflation − Energy Prices; Prices of energy and energy of the Group of Five economies. Founder stocks, seen as a hedge against inflation, Jerry Haworth predicts that the world is “in have been increasing. the lag period between when the seeds of inflation are sown and when their off- spring, Curtis Arledge, of the fund management firm that is higher prices, are evident for all to BlackRock, has allocated about 5 percent of the see.” Haworth feels that most investors are fixed-income portfolios he manages to inflation underestimating the risk of inflation. hedges. BlackRock is one of the world’s largest − Universa Investments LP – Universa is fund management firms with over US$1.0 trillion advised by “Black Swan” author Nassim in assets under management. As far as inflation Taleb, which has constructed a strategy protection, according to Mr. Arledge “Anytime you’re to profit from the premise that US stimulus buying insurance, you want to buy at a time when the efforts will result in hyperinflation. probability of needing it is low, because it theoretically costs less. You don’t want to buy fire insurance when you see smoke coming out of your house.” 2
  • 4. Global Macro Outlook (continued) John Osbon, the head of Osbon Capital GOVERNMENT AS BORROWER OF LAST RESORT Management, says that to take advantage of the likely inflationary trends ahead, investors should buy Proponents of the deflation viewpoint rely primarily Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, which trade on the view that “the federal reserve and the banks like standard Treasuries but have inflation protection can create credit, but people may decide not to built in. “Ten-year inflation is priced at 140 basis borrow.” However, even if the private sector refuses points right now, meaning that the term structure to borrow money at 0% interest, central banks and of interest rates say that inflation will be 1.4% per governments can do the borrowing and buying year for the next 10 years,” he says. “There is no directly. Its clear that the worlds’ governments are inflation in sight right now, which is why we believe doing exactly this - stepping in to replace private everyone should own some inflation protection.” In sector borrowing and consumption – effectively other words, buy it when its inexpensive. “To my becoming the “borrower of last resort” to generate knowledge, no nation has ever run fiscal deficits inflation. of over 6% without triggering inflation,” he says. “Our budget deficit this year is 12%!” Osbon recommends a 5% to 15% portfolio allocation to inflation hedging bonds and also considering commodities as another way to play inflation, though CHART 1: he says they deserve their own allocation. GOVERNMENT DEBT ISSUED ANNUALLY Agcapita views inflation indexed government bonds $3.0 trillion +500% less favourably than many investment managers. The key weakness of inflation protected government 2.5 +400 bonds is that the government gets to calculate 2.0 U.S. Britain the rate of inflation. The incentive for government +300 1.5 U.S. is always to under-report inflation for a variety of Euro zone +200 reasons. This under-reporting risk is best summed 1.0 up by a quote from fund manager Marc Faber – 0.5 +100 Euro “Never ask the barber if you need a haircut. Never zone 0 Britain 0 ask the realtor if the house you are considering buying is a bargain at the price offered. And never 05 06 07 08 09 10 05 06 07 08 09 10 projected projected ask the government to calculate the rate of inflation when it can save millions of dollars in cost-of-living Source: The New York Times adjustments.” 3
  • 5. Global Macro Outlook (continued) Where will the money to fund this borrowing come US INTEREST PAYMENTS WILL BALLOON from? These are the main sources: 1. Domestic private investors The US is expected to issue more than $5 trillion 2. Foreign private investors in additional debt over the next 18 months. 3. Foreign central banks Assuming US long bond yields stay under 5% the 4. Domestic central banks US government’s total annual interest payments are projected to exceed $800 billion, up almost 500% Of the four funding sources it seems only likely that from 2009. Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff in the US the Federal reserve will be willing and able predicts for every percentage point higher over 5% on to step in and absorb the amounts of debt issuance long bonds, the U.S. government will have to pay an that the US fiscal deficit will require – direct debt extra $170 billion in annual interest payments. monetization and highly inflationary. CHART 2: CHART 3 GOVERNMENT REPLACES THE CONSUMER Actual Projected Rise in Government Borrowing Offsets CBO White House Fall in Private borrowing $236.2 billion estimate estimate 20% ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 15% 0 ‘00 ‘01 10% -400 5% 0% -800 -5% 3/52 3/55 3/58 3/61 3/64 3/67 3/70 3/73 3/76 3/79 3/82 3/85 3/88 3/91 3/94 3/97 3/03 3/06 3/09 -1,200 Firms and Households Federal Government -1,600 Source: www.crg.org/cgs White House: - $1.75 trillion CBO: - $1.85 trillion In Billions 4
  • 6. Global Macro Outlook (continued) INVEST IN WHAT CHINA NEEDS INVESTING IN THE NEW ENVIRONMENT As an investor you should focus on being long Bill Gross is one of the world’s largest mutual fund the things for which China has high demand but managers, focusing mostly on bonds. The following insufficient domestic production. is a complete reproduction of a recent investment commentary from Bill Gross that makes very The further the move into the lower left-hand corner interesting reading. of Chart 4, the greater the exposure to Chinese demand factors for the item in question. Currently “Staying Rich in the New Normal By Bill Gross that means potash, soybeans, iron ore and oil. In ‘Behind every great fortune lies a great crime.’ Balzac. these commodities, China’s share of world production Balzac was on to something 200 years ago, but to is low (for potash, China represents less than 5% of be fair to modern day multi-millionaires, the only real global production and China’s production of potash way to accumulate wealth prior to the 18th century is little more than 20% of its domestic demand and was to steal it, or tax it, I suppose, as was the case its ability to satisfy domestic demand with domestic with kings and their royal courts. It was only with the production is low). Source Agora advent of capitalism and annual productivity gains that entrepreneurs, investors, and risk-takers with luck or pinpoint-timing could jump to the head of the pack and accumulate what came to be recognized as a fortune. Still, the negative connotations persist. CHART 4: BUY WHAT CHINA NEEDS I remember a cocktail party in the early 80s where a somewhat inebriated guest engaged me in a debate China Net Buyer China Net Seller about the merits of capitalism. “You’re filthy rich,” he 45 said, which struck me as most unfair from a number China’s Share of World Production (%) 40 Coal Tin Lead of angles. First of all, he hadn’t seen anything yet, I 35 Zinc Steel Products thought, and second, I wasn’t quite sure where the 30 Aluminum “filthy” came from. Resentment that he’d missed 25 Iron Ore out on my presumed good deal, I suppose, and in 20 Stainless Steel Copper the process using a hackneyed phrase that was 15 bitter and biting, yet had some context of historical 10 5 Potash Crude Oil sociological relativity. Still, he might have been on to 0 Soy Beans something there - not about me, hopefully, because 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 I’ve always felt that while PIMCO has prospered, it’s Chinese Production as a % of China’s Demand only because its clients have benefitted even more Source: Agora so - but about the developing sense of one-sided, perhaps off-sided wealth generation that was to dominate the next several decades. Granted, we had 5
  • 7. Global Macro Outlook (continued) Bill Gates and Steve Jobs and other true capitalistic much wealth in proportion to the rest of the world. Its dynamos who benefitted society immeasurably. But fortune-producing capabilities seem to be declining, growing percentages of fortunes were being made by which might suggest that its relative standard of living those who could borrow or aggregate other people’s is doing so as well. If so, the implications are serious, money. Because our economy was still in a relatively not just for Donald Trump but for wage earners early stage of leveraging, those who borrowed money and ordinary citizens, as reflected in their income and used it to invest in higher-risk yet higher-return levels and unemployment rates. Stockholders, financial or real assets didn’t require a lot of skill, 401(k) investors, and yes, bond managers will be they just needed to be able to convince a bank or an affected too. Last week’s furor over the possibility insurance company to lend them some money. After of an eventual downgrade of America’s AAA rating that, the secular wave of leverage would be enough demonstrates that only too clearly. On the night of to multiply their meager equity many times over and May 20, Standard & Poor’s announced a downgrade carry them to a beach where a fortune awaited them watch for the United Kingdom and since the U.S. much like a pirate’s buried treasure. and U.K. are Siamese-connected, financially- levered twins, the implications were obvious: the I remember as a child my parents telling me, perhaps U.S. might be next. In the space of 48 hours, the resentfully, that only a doctor, airline pilot, or a car dollar declined 2%, and U.S. stocks and long-term dealer could afford to join a country club. My how bonds were down by similar amounts. Such a trifecta things have changed. Now, as I write this overlooking rarely occurs but in retrospect it all made sense: a the 16th hole on the Vintage Club near Palm Springs, downgrade would cast a negative light on the world’s the only golfers who shank seven irons into the lake reserve currency, and since stocks and bonds are are real estate developers, investment bankers, or only present values of a forward stream of dollar- heads of investment management companies. The denominated receipts, they went down as well. rich are different, not only in the manner intoned by F. Scott Fitzgerald, but also in who they are and what The potential downgrade, while still far off in the future they do for a living. Whether some or all of them are in PIMCO’s opinion, seemed dubious at first blush. filthy is a judgment for society and history to make. While country ratings factor in numerous subjective Of one thing you can be sure however: over the qualifications such as contract rights, military might, next several decades, the ability to make a fortune and advanced secondary education, the primary by using other people’s money will be a lot harder. focus has always been on the objective measurement Deleveraging, reregulation, increased taxation, and of debt levels, in this case sovereign debt, as a compensation limits will allow only the most skillful - percentage of GDP. Yet, as shown in Table 1, both or the shadiest - into the Balzac or Forbes 400. the U.S. and the U.K. entered the Great Recession with attractive ratios compared to such grievous Readers who are interested in such things as the offenders (and AA rated) as Japan. Forbes annual list of hoity-toities will have noticed that more and more of them are global, not U.S. Yet as the markets recognized rather abruptly last citizens. The U.S., in other words, is not producing as week, both countries seem to be closing the gap 6
  • 8. Global Macro Outlook (continued) in record time. To zero in on the U.S. of A., its ephemeral taxes on leverage-based capital gains that annual deficit of nearly $1.5 trillion is 10% of GDP in turn were due to the secular decline of inflation and alone, a number never approached since the 1930s interest rates that at some point had to bottom. We Depression. While policymakers, including the are reaping the consequences of that long period of President and Treasury Secretary Geithner, assure overconsumption and undersavings encouraged by voters and financial markets alike that such a path is the belief that lower and lower taxes would cure all. unsustainable and that a return to fiscal conservatism is just around the recovery’s corner, it is hard to The current annual deficit of $1.5 trillion does not comprehend exactly how that more balanced rabbit even address the “pig in the python,” baby boomer, can be pulled out of Washington’s hat. demographic squeeze on resources that looms straight ahead. Private think tanks such as The Private sector deleveraging, reregulation and reduced Blackstone Group and even studies by government consumption all argue for a real growth rate in the agencies, such as the Congressional Budget Office, U.S. that requires a government checkbook for years promise that Federal spending for Social Security, to come just to keep its head above the 1% required Medicare, and Medicaid will collectively increase to stabilize unemployment. Five more years of those by 6% of GDP over the next 20 years, leading 10% of GDP deficits will quickly raise America’s to even larger deficits unless taxes are increased debt to GDP level to over 100%, a level that the proportionately. Collectively these three programs rating services - and more importantly the markets represent an approximate $40 trillion liability that will - recognize as a point of no return. At 100% debt to have to be paid. If not, you can add that present GDP, the interest on the debt might amount to 5% or value figure to the current $10 trillion deficit and reach 6% of annual output alone, and it quickly compounds a 300% of GDP figure - a number that resembles as the interest upon interest becomes as heavy Latin American economies such as Argentina and as those “sixteen tons” in Tennessee Ernie Ford’s Brazil over the past century. famous song of a West Virginia coal miner. “You load sixteen tons and whattaya get? Another day older So the rather conservative U.S. government debt and deeper in debt.” Pretty soon you need 17, 18, 19 ratio shown in Chart 5 will likely be anything but in tons just to stay even and that describes the potential less than a decade’s time. The immediate question fate of the United States as the deficits string out into is who is going to buy all of this debt? Estimates the Obama and other future Administrations. The fact suggest gross Treasury issuance of up to $3 trillion is that supply-side economics was a partial con job this calendar year and net offerings close to $2 from the get-go. Granted, from the 80% marginal tax trillion - almost four times last year’s supply. Prior to rate that existed in the U.S. and the U.K. into the late 2009, it was enough to count on the recycling of the 60s and 70s, lower taxes do incentivize productive U.S. trade/current account deficit to fund Treasury investment and entrepreneurial risk-taking. But below borrowing requirements. Now, however, with that 40% or so, it just pads the pockets of the rich and amount approximating only $500 billion, it is obvious destabilizes the country’s financial balance sheet. that the Chinese and other surplus nations cannot Bill Clinton’s magical surpluses were really due to fund the deficit even if they were fully on board - 7
  • 9. Global Macro Outlook (continued) which they are not. Someone else has got to write with its publicly announced and near daily purchases checks for up to $1.5 trillion additional Treasury notes of Treasuries and Agencies at a $400 billion annual and bonds. Well, you’ve got the banks and even rate. That in combination with a buy ticket for over individual investors to sponge up some of the excess, $1 trillion of Agency mortgages has been the primary but a huge, difficult to estimate marginal supply will reason why capital markets - both corporate bonds have to be bought. The concern is that this can be and stocks - are behaving so well. But the Fed accomplished in only two ways - both of which have must tread carefully here. These purchases result serious consequences for U.S. and global financial in an expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, which markets. The first and most recent development ultimately could have inflationary implications. In turn, is the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve nervous holders of dollar obligations are beginning and the rise of intermediate and long-term bond to look for diversification in other currencies, selling yields. While the Treasury can easily afford the higher Treasury bonds in the process. interest expense in the short term, the pressure it puts on mortgage and corporate rates represents a The obvious solution to both dollar weakness and serious threat to the fragile “greenshoots” recovery higher yields is to move quickly towards a more now underway. Secondly, the buyer of last resort in balanced budget once a sustained recovery is recent months has become the Federal Reserve, assured, but don’t count on the former or the latter. It is probable that trillion-dollar deficits are here to stay because any recovery is likely to reflect “new normal” GDP growth rates of 1%-2% not 3%+ as CHART 5: SIXTEEN TONS we used to have. Staying rich in this future world will require strategies that reflect this altered vision of global economic growth and delivered financial Federal Gov’t Debt markets. Bond investors should therefore confine Country to GDP Ratio maturities to the front end of yield curves where U.S. 45% continuing low yields and downside price protection U.K. 50% is more probable. Holders of dollars should diversify their own baskets before central banks and sovereign Japan 171% wealth funds ultimately do the same. All investors Germany 39% should expect considerably lower rates of return than Canada 42% what they grew accustomed to only a few years ago. China 20% Staying rich in the “new normal” may not require investors to resemble Balzac as much as Will Rogers, Brazil 36% who opined in the early 30s that he wasn’t as much Source: PIMCO. All data as of Q4: 2008, sourced from concerned about the return on his money as the individual country national accounts return of his money.” 8
  • 10. Global Macro Outlook (continued) GLOBAL MONEY SUPPLY ANALYSIS Financial commentator Mike Hewitt has conducted Chart 7 shows the growth of aggregate money a very useful analysis of global monetary aggregates supply since 1971, the last year that US dollars were in an attempt to arrive at a measure of global convertible to gold. money supply. There are several different monetary aggregates used to measure a nation’s money It is worth noting that four currencies (EUR, USD, supply. These monetary aggregates can be thought JPY and CNY) comprise nearly 75% of all circulating of as forming a continuum from most liquid LMO to banknotes and coins. (See Appendix for data). the least liquid LM3. Chart 8 shows the historical outstanding stocks of Chart 6 shows the countries used to measure M0, M0 for currencies analyzed by Hewitt. M1, M2 and M3 in Hewitt’s study. CHART 6: 138 COUNTRIES INCLUDED IN CHART 7: ESTIMATED GLOBAL MONETARY ANALYSIS AGGREGATES (JAN 1971 TO MAY 2009) 60 50 (in US $ trillions) 40 30 20 10 European Union West African Union Central African Union 0 Data Aavailable No Data Available 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Source: www.dollardaze.org M3 - Broad Money M2 - Money + Close Substitutes (Quasi-Money) M1 - Currency in Circulation + Demand Deposits (Money) M0 - Currency in Circulation Source: www.dollardaze.org 9
  • 11. Global Macro Outlook (continued) Though the exact numbers are subject to interpretation, the trend is clear. Global money supply is increasing at an accelerating rate. In 1990, the total amount of currency in circulation exceeded US$1 trillion. Twelve years later, the total amount exceeded US$2 trillion. This doubled again less than six years later. CHART 8 ESTIMATED GLOBAL CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION (JAN 1971 TO MAY 2009) 4.5 4.0 3.5 (in US $ trillions) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 .5 0.0 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 US Dollar (USD) Japanese Yen (JPY) Euro (EUR) Chinese Renminbi (CNY) All Others Source: www.dollardaze.org 10
  • 12. Farmland Update NO-TILL FARMING No-till farming (sometimes called zero tillage or At the World Congress on Conservation Agriculture conservation tillage) has been part of the evolution of held in Kenya in 2005, it was reported that farmers grain growing - a way to produce more grain with less are showing increased interest in no-tillage and the effort, fuel, erosion and water loss. The countries technology is being applied to more than 95 million with the largest acreage under no-till are the US, Brazil, hectares worldwide. These six countries all have Argentina, Canada, Australia and Paraguay. Canadian adoption areas above one million hectares (see farmers, and in particular Saskatchewan farmers, are Chart 9). world leaders in no-till farming practices. In 1991, 6.7% of Canadian farmland was in no-till cultivation CANADIAN FARMERS DIVERSIFY but by 2006 the average was 46.4% according to the Department of Agriculture. In Saskatchewan In 2006, red meats, grains and oilseeds, and dairy the averages are even better. In 1991, 10.4% of accounted for almost 70% of total farm market Saskatchewan farmland was in no-till cultivation but by receipts, down from 74% in 1990 (See Chart 2006 the average had climbed to 60.2%. 10). Since 1990, the contribution of grains and CHART 9: EXTENT OF NO-TILLAGE ADOPTION CHART 10: FARM MARKET RECIPTS BY WORLDWIDE COMMODITY, 1990 AND 2006 26 Total $20.1B Total $32.4B Area under no-tillage 24 $1.1 5.2% Fruits & Vegetables 7.0% $2.3 22 (million hectares) 2004-05 Poultry & Eggs $1.7 8.4% 7.3% $2.4 20 28 $2.5 12.5% Other Farm Commodities 16.5% $5.3 16 14 12 $3.2 15.7% Dairy 14.9% $4.8 10 8 6 27.8% Grains & Oilseeds 4 $5.6 23.3% $7.6 2 0 USA Brazil Argentina Canada Australia Indo-Gangetic-Plains Paraguay Bolivia South Africa Spain Venezuela Uruguay France Chile Colombia China Others (estimate) 30.4% Red Meats 31.0% $10.1 $6.1 1990 2006 Source: Statistics Canada 11
  • 13. Farmland Update (continued) oilseeds, dairy, and poultry and eggs to total farm CHART 11: REGIONAL FARM MARKET RECEIPTS market receipts are gradually declining, while that BY COMMODITY SHARE, 2006 of red meats, fruits and vegetables, and other farm commodities are increasing. Percent 100 In the Prairies, red meats have surpassed grains 90 80 and oilseeds as the most important commodity in 70 dollar terms. In the Atlantic Provinces, other farm 60 commodities such as special crops contributed about 50 50% to farm market receipts in 2006. In Central 40 30 Canada, red meats and dairy are the most important 20 commodities in dollar terms. 10 0 B.C. Prairies Ont. Que Atlantic Red Meats Grains & Oilseeds Other Farm Commodities Daiy Poultry & Eggs Fruits & Vegetables Source: Statistics Canada 12
  • 14. Appendix TABLE 1 Percent Amount of all Country/ Currency (Billion Circulating Union Code US$) Currency European EUR 1035.2 24.30% Union United USD 850.7 19.97% States Japan JPY 762.4 17.90% China CNY 492.3 11.56% India INR 140.3 3.29% Russia RUR 110.8 2.60% United GBP 87.5 2.05% Kingdom Canada CAD 43.8 1.03% Switzerland CHF 40.3 0.95% Poland PLN 37.7 0.89% Brazil BRL 37.3 0.88% Mexico MXN 34.3 0.81% Australia AUD 32.4 0.76% Others (89) - 554.9 13.03% 13
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