v
INTRODUCTION TO “THEORY OF CHANGE”
June 2020
James Noble, Nicola Pritchard

INTRODUCTION

SUMMARY
3
Agenda for the session
• 9:30-9:40: Introductions
• 9:40-10:00: Presentation from NPC introducing theory of change + questions
• 10:15-11:30: Working on the key elements of a more basic / simpler theory of change
(breaks at 10:30 and 11:30)
• 11:35-12:15: Working on more challenging theories of change for bigger programmes
• 12:15-12:25: Thinking about “enabling factors” and “assumptions”.
• 12:25-12:30: Next steps and feedback

INTRODUCTION
1. Find your picture on the Mural board and add your
name on a post-it note
2. Name, organisation, what you do
3. Any experience of the ‘theory of change’ approach?
4. Any particular aims for the day
4

SECTION 1) INTRODUCING
THEORY OF CHANGE

“THEORY OF CHANGE?”
6
Outcome Framework
Programme Theory
Planning Triangle
Outcomes Map
Logic Model
Log Frame
Theory of Change
Story of Change
A process for thinking about and describing
programmes, projects or organisations

FLAVOUR OF THE MONTH?
A process for thinking about and describing
programmes, projects or organisations
https://trends.google.com/trends

IT DESCRIBES YOUR THEORY OF HOW YOU
PLAN TO CAUSE CHANGE IN THE WORLD.
8
- A statement of what you want to
happen—a hypothesis.
- Applicable to programmes,
projects, organisations –
anything that is aiming to ‘do
good’
- Focus on capturing ‘the
essence’ of your thinking. It is a
precursor to more detailed
project planning - which comes
later.
A process for thinking about and describing
programmes, projects or organisations

CHALLENGES US TO OPEN-UP OUR THINKING
ABOUT HOW PROJECTS ARE MEANT TO WORK.
FILLS IN THE GAPS.
9
Mentoring Reduction in youth unemployment
Research Policy change
Campaigning Changes in public opinion?

10
A STRUCTURED PROCESS
Key features:
• Breaking down projects into standard components, which are intended to be useful
• Components addresses in sequence. ‘Backwards mapping’
• Aim to identify the sequence or journey of change (where possible)
• Often summarised / represented as a diagram (optional)
2) Impact4) Activities 3) Outcomes5) Mechanisms
“Accountability line”
Change in your target
groups that you think will
contribute to impact:
Changes in knowledge,
skills, attitudes and / or
behaviours.
The ways in which you
want your target groups
to engage with your
activities to maximise the
likelihood of outcomes
being achieved.
What you plan to do:
How much and with
what quality?
The sustained effect
that you want to
achieve. Amongst; a)
your target groups; and
then b) the community
as-a-whole
1 Context/ Situation
1 Targetgroups

THEORY OF CHANGE PROCESS
11
Process ‘Must haves’
• Someone to lead and bring it together
Process ‘good to have’
• Buy-in / enthusiasm from important people
• Willingness to reflect and challenge yourselves
Two key dimensions to decide on.:
Try to see the process as distinct from the output
Consultation Evidence base
The best processes will have both - but it partly depends on your objectives
https://www.thinknpc.org/blog/ten-tips-for-facilitating-online-workshops/

THEORY OF CHANGE OUTPUT
Example: “The Countryman’s Club”
https://www.futureroots.net/who-we-help/the-countrymens-club/

APPENDIX: “THE COUNTRYMEN’S CLUB” DETAILED THEORY
OF CHANGE
Reduce social
isolation /
loneliness
Maximise
wellbeing
Slowed cognitive
decline
Prevent health
conditions from
becoming chronic
Have better /
maintain
relationships with
carers
Better / maintain
sense of belonging
/ inclusion
Improved ‘social
resources’, skills,
networks
Better / maintain
self-knowledge /
worth/esteem,
pride, sense of
purpose
Remain
independent for
longer
Supportive
interactions with staff
Older men feel
listened to /
understood
Meeting-up and
working with peers
on the farm
Carers reduce
emotional stress /
worry & improved
wellbeing
Maximise physical
health
Activities
Change
mechanism
Outcomes
(resilience)
Impact
Increased
engagement in
community
Maintain/ reconnect
with positive identities
More positive about
life
Respite for carers
Use and maintain
their practical skills /
knowledge
Develop positive
relationships with
staff & one another
Sense of control
Choice about which
activities they do
Carers meet and
helped to support
each other
Something different /
out of the house
Calmer, less
agitated / anxious
More physically
active
Physically active in
outdoor environment
Enjoyment / senses
stimulated / uplifted
Assisted animal
therapies
Calming environment
Better sleep
Secure / safe /
welcoming
environment
Rural landscape
Reminiscence
activities
Physical & mental wellbeing
Personal
Social
Personal relationships

BENEFITS OF THEORIES OF CHANGE
• 1) Strengthening teams and team motivation through;
– Process of dialogue and debate: Bring people together to share their views Leads
to better understanding between colleagues, inclusion of a wide spectrum of views
and stronger teams
– Output provides clarity: Working towards succinct / consistent statement of plans.
Leads to a greater strength of purpose and team motivation
• 2) Project design / review: A forum that encourages people to challenge themselves;
review the evidence base; and think seriously about context, priorities and plans. Leading
to stronger underlying thinking – and better projects.
• 3) Better external communications and better conversations with partners: A tool for
showing project aims quickly and that the ‘change process’ has been thought through.
Leading to wider understanding and confidence
• 4) Better monitoring and evaluation through;
– Improved monitoring and evaluation plans: A blueprint for what needs to be
measured and identifying research priorities. Leading to better quality evaluations
– Frameworks for performance assessment and reporting: Identifying shorter-term
indicators of success and the basis for a narrative about project effectiveness.
Leading to more timely and robust accounts of project effectiveness
DevelopmentalDescriptive
+

A THEORY OF CHANGE FOR THEORY OF CHANGE!
Better
understanding
between
colleagues
Improved sense of
purpose and
motivation
Wider
understanding of
aims & plans
Increased
confidence in plans
Stronger
programmes that
reflect better
thinking / evidence
Improved
evaluation &
performance
management
1b) Develop a
clear, consistent
plans and aims
3) Summarise
plans (in diagrams)
and communicate
succinctly
Reflection / soul-
searching about:
context, what we
aim to achieve; and
how?
4) Determine
clearer research
questions and data
requirements
Increased support
and funding
Better delivery /
performance
Our charitable
activities reach,
engage & influence
more people
Monitoring and
evaluation address
relevant questions
More positive
impact for
beneficiaries and
communities
Better short-term
measures of
progress
Consultation with
staff, volunteers,
service users to
gain ideas,
thoughts, feedback
Background
research / evidence
into the ‘problem’
and possible
solutions
Someone to lead
the process and
bring it together
2) Identify
challenges /
weaknesses / gaps
- and agree
priorities, strategies
Activities Mechanisms Outcomes Impact
1a) Team work,
Identifying and
negotiate different
perspectives
Buy-in /
enthusiasm

SUMMARY
16
• The aim is to describe your intentions / your hopes
• Start with the ‘essence’ of how you want to help or influence people. Then build plans
around that.
• Focus on thinking about and describing the link between activities and impact
• ToC gives us a structured process to help us think about these things
• It is good to see the theory of change process is distinct from the output
• Four main benefits
• Developmental: Gaining clarity and consensus
• Developmental: Testing and strengthening your thinking
• Descriptive: External communications
• Descriptive: Better measurement and evaluation

ANY QUESTIONS /
OBSERVATIONS?

INTRODUCTION TO NPC’S
“10 STEP” APPROACH

THE KEY CHALLENGE: THEORY OF CHANGE IS A SIMPLE
NOTION BUT THE WORLD WE LIVE IN IS COMPLEX!
19

THEORY OF CHANGE AS A ‘THREE STAGE’ /
‘10 STEP’ PROCESS
20
• 1a) The ‘problem’ you want to tackle
• 1b) The context, barriers and
opportunities for change
• 1c) The resources you have and where
you can make the most difference
Situation
analysis
• Target group
• Impact
• Outcomes
• Activities
• Mechanisms / quality
• Sequence
• Diagram
Theory of
change
• ‘Enabling factors’: How the theory of
change might be helped / hindered by the
outside world
• Weaknesses / risks that reveal your
underlying thinking
Assumptions
https://www.thinknpc.org/resource-hub/theory-of-change-in-ten-steps/

STAGE 1: INTRODUCTION TO ‘SITUATION
ANALYSIS’
22
 Try to put aside, or suspend, thinking about your own project or
organisation and just think about the situation / problem itself.
 Situation analysis is greatly enhanced if it is based on:
 Research / data / evidence
 Consultation with stakeholders / users / beneficiaries
 The subsequent theory of change should develop out of the situation
analysis
 Part of the aim is to establish a clear rationale
Situation
analysis

STAGE 1A: ‘PROBLEM DEFINITION’
23
What exactly is the issue or ‘problem’ the project is aiming to
address?
Example ‘Problem statements’
Community level
• Victims of domestic violence are at risk of depression and reduced wellbeing from which
it is difficult to recover
• Children struggle to learn maths and do not reach the required standard at Key Stage 2
• People smoke in cars when children are in the vehicle, and this has a known association
with poor health conditions and outcomes for children
• People are sent to prison for short sentences which increases the risk of further
offending
System / institution level
• Staff in NHS mental health wards do not always show enough care and empathy to
patients
• The voluntary sector has unique insights into peoples’ needs but is not influential enough
Situation
analysis
Our ‘problem’: Too few people approaching older age chose ‘active travel’ options for
shorter / regular journeys (ie. walking or cycling).

1B) SITUATION ANALYSIS PROMPTS
24
 What’s the scale of the problem?
 Who is affected?
 What are the consequences?
 What are the causes of the problem?
 What are the barriers to success / change?
 What are the opportunities to overcome these barriers?
Situation
analysis
Context, barriers and opportunities for change

1C) SITUATION ANALYSIS PROMPTS
25
 Who else is working to tackle the problem?
 What is not happening? What are the gaps?
 What resources do you have to tackle the problem? Where might you
make the most difference?
- Given your resources, what, broadly, will you do? What’s the best course
of action?
- What options, strategies or approaches are we ruling out?
Situation
analysis
The resources you have and where you can make the most difference

BREAK

28
Be as precise as you can in defining target groups. For example
– Care leavers aged 18-24, NEET, some contact with criminal justice system, unstable housing
situations, lacking positive role models.
– Magistrates with limited legal knowledge / experienced who make more custodial sentences
than average.
Try to identify characteristics most connected to your ‘problem’. Consider:
– Objective characteristics – age, location, education, offending / personal histories.
– Subjective characteristics – knowledge, attitudes and behaviours.
STEP 2: DEFINE TARGET GROUP (S)
Target groups are the people or institutions you want to reach or work with through
your project. It is good to think about who you want to help or influence the most.
Technically, you need separate theories of change for each main target group

29
Impact: The sustained effect that you want to achieve. amongst your target group (s)
Features
• It relates to; a) you target group (not you); b) the community as a whole (if you
want).
• Something important and meaningful: reduced offending, increased
employment, improved wellbeing
• Long-term. Something that’s achieved after your programme. e.g how do you
want the world to better off in five years time because of your work?
• Something that people achieve for themselves. After your work is finished
• Something you are likely to contribute to alongside others
Tips
• Succinct as possible: 1 or 2 sentences
• Clear, jargon free and intelligible: ‘fulfil potential’, ‘stronger communities’.
STEP 3: WHAT DOES IMPACT MEAN?

What changes in your target audience do you think will contribute to the impact you
have defined
Tips on thinking about short-term outcomes
• They relate to how you want your ‘target group’ to be changed by your work.
– What resources, assets, strengths, capabilities will you aim to give people that will
help them to achieve impact for themselves
• It can help to think separately about shorter-term changes in
– a) Knowledge/skills
– b) Attitudes
– c) Behaviours
• Alternatively use the COM-B model (Capabilities, Opportunities, Motivations-Behaviours)
• Use ‘change’ words: ‘Improve’ ,’Reduce’, ‘Increase’.
• Start with a brainstorm, then try to whittle them down
STEP 4: WHAT SHORTER-TERM
OUTCOMES DO YOU WANT TO ACHIEVE?
30

31
Tips on thinking about activities
• Describe what your project does (or what you want it to do)
• Use language of activities and interventions:
– Provide
– Support
– Run
– Offer
• A good description will describe the most important features.
– What are you offering? What activities
– What will people be doing? How often? For how long?
– What are the key features?
– How will you recruit or attract your target group?
Usually the easiest part. What are you doing (or going to do?)
STEP 5: WHAT ARE YOUR ACTIVITIES?

STEP 6: CHANGE MECHANISMS
32
Young person takes
part in a sporting
activity
Young person feels
stronger sense of
self-esteem
Has a feeling of
achievement, that
they did well
Refugee is given
advice
Refugee acts on the
advice
They trust the
person giving the
advice
Advice is seen as
relevant
Organise a
community event
New friendships /
relationships
People to talk to
each other / find
common interests
Activity What’s missing? Outcome
https://www.thinknpc.org/resource-hub/mechanisms/
“How you think your activities will work to engage people and create outcomes”

33
- Seasonal
- Sign-up with friends / colleagues
- Website to track everyone’s progress
- Information, motivation and prizes
STEP 5: EXAMPLE

34
Tips on thinking about mechanisms:
- Mechanisms can be a bit harder to define
- It helps to imagine how you want people to experience your project as it happens / ‘on
the day’ / in the moment
- Often relates to feeling motivated, listening, engaging, enjoying, relevance, trust.
- Think about what your target groups/users will be….
….whilst they are engaging with your project.
How you think your activities will work to engage people and create
the outcomes you defined above
STEP 6: CHANGE MECHANISMS
https://www.thinknpc.org/resource-hub/mechanisms/
Try it yourselves…

6: YOU CAN ALSO NOW THINK ABOUT
“QUALITY”
35
How do you plan to deliver your work to make sure the mechanisms
happen?
• What will make your activities particularly effective?
• What do you need to do to make sure mechanisms happen on the day?
• What is unique, distinctive or special about your service or campaign?
• What are the qualities that staff and volunteers need to have and show?
They trust the
person giving the
advice
Advice is seen as
relevant

STEP 7: SEQUENCING

STEP 7: DEVELOPING A SEQUENCE / CHAIN
37
Sustained friendships between
people from different backgrounds
Better social
integration in
the community
People feel comfortable and
welcome
Players understand one another
better - and overcome
preconceptions / divisions
Shared fun / positive experiences
among people from different
backgrounds
Sports and social integration project

STEP 7: DEVELOPING AN OUTCOMES
SEQUENCE / CHAIN
38
Sustained
friendships
between
people from
different
backgrounds
Better social
integration in
the community
People feel
comfortable
and welcome
Players
understand one
another better -
and overcome
preconceptions /
divisions
Shared fun,
positive
experiences
among people
from different
backgrounds
Sports and social integration project

STEP 7: DEVELOPING AN OUTCOMES
SEQUENCE / CHAIN
39
Sustained
friendships
between
people from
different
backgrounds
Better social
integration in
the community
People feel
comfortable
participating
in sports
Players
understand one
another better -
and overcome
preconceptions /
divisions
Shared fun,
positive
experiences
among people
from different
backgrounds
Sports and social integration project
Develop shared
identities as ‘part
of a team’ rather
than from a
particular
background
• Might help you identify gaps in your reasoning

STEP 7: DEVELOPING AN OUTCOMES
SEQUENCE / CHAIN
40
Sustained
friendships
between
people from
different
backgrounds
Better social
integration in
the community
People feel
comfortable
participating
in sports
Players
understand one
another better -
and overcome
preconceptions /
divisions
Shared fun,
positive
experiences
among people
from different
backgrounds
Sports and social integration project
Create a
welcoming
environment
- Mix the
teams up
- Keep it fun
Arrange social
activities outside
the game
- Set people
challenges that
encourage them
to collaborate and
work together
• Different activities are sometimes best suited to different stages of change,
and you might realise you aren’t doing enough at a particular stage

STEP 7: DEVELOPING AN OUTCOMES
SEQUENCE / CHAIN
41
6 sustained
friendships
between
people from
different
backgrounds
Better social
integration
among
participants ?
100 people
feel
comfortable
participating
in sports
25 players
understand one
another better -
and overcome
preconceptions /
divisions
50 people have
a shared fun,
positive
experiences
among people
from different
backgrounds
Sports and social integration project
Create a
welcoming
environment
- Mix the
teams up
- Keep it fun
Arrange social
activities outside
the game
- Set people
challenges that
encourage them
to collaborate and
work together
• Different activities are sometimes best suited to different stages of change,
and you might realise you aren’t doing enough at a particular stage

WHY IS SEQUENCING HELPFUL?
42
1. Demands and demonstrates a deeper level of thinking about how change will occur.
• It should help you to better appreciate the most important or critical elements of the
theory of change.
• Might help you identify gaps in your reasoning
• Understanding the sequence of change can help you be clearer about how and when to
invest your efforts.
• Different activities are sometimes best suited to different stages, and you might
realise you aren’t doing enough at a particular stage
• Shows how different stakeholders need to do different things
3. For ambitious or longer-term goals it helps to set more intermediate objectives.
• For performance management, sequencing will highlight the early indicators that
help you test that you are on the right track.
• Can help you and others to appreciate the challenge of the task in hand, and
develop realistic expectations
But is isn’t always applicable / useful

BREAK

THEORIES OF CHANGE FOR MORE
CHALLENGING PROGRAMMES /
CAMPAIGNS

WHAT CAN MAKE THEORY OF CHANGE MORE
CHALLENGING
Source Possible situations
Convoluted - More stages of
change
- A children’s charity works through parents to help children’s learning.
- A campaigning organisation works through local activists to influence
local politicians who then go on to influence national policymakers.
More / longer-term ambition,
more impacts you want to
achieve - possibly at a
societal level
- An infrastructure body might want to influence and support a very loose
collection of organisations to tackle a big social problem.
- A campaigning charity might have a long-term goal to achieve broad
societal change across all sorts of institutions and wider culture.
More stakeholder groups,
activities, objectives or
impact to consider
- An infrastructure body supporting a loose collection of organisations will
need to consider those organisations, and segments within them, as well
as the beneficiaries they aim to serve, their funders, the government, and
public opinion.
- Any campaigning charity will need to identify and think about all the
potential actors that are relevant to their mission.
More unanswered questions
or opinions to hear
You have a rough idea about what you want to achieve and how but still
lots of thinking to do.
If we try to tackle everything simultaneously we will get lost. We need a way to
break things down into manageable chunks

MACRO AND MICRO THEORIES OF CHANGE
46
• Honing-in on individual relationships
within the theory of change
• Allows for more attention to the causes of
change and the quality of delivery
• The kind of theory of change we worked on
in part 1
• i) The bigger picture and ii) your role in it
• Draw out the high level logic / reasoning –
and expected sequence of change
• Roles of different stakeholders
• Summarise activities but no detail about how
things will be achieved
• “Everything should be made as simple as
possible, but not simpler”
“Macro”
“Micro”

INITIAL HIGH LEVEL MAPPING TO DETERMINE
THE SEPARATE ELEMENTS OF THE TOC
47
Enduring
friendships
between people
of different
generations
Communities
characterised by
friendliness /
neighbourliness
More regular
contact between
people of
difference
generations
More and better
opportunities for
different
generations to
meet
Effective /
marketing
outreach to
different groups
Funder develops
online tool to
help people stay
in touch
Funder provides
resources,
research and good
practice around
outreach
Funder identifies,
engage, funds and
support local
groups to create
more and better
opportunities
Positive
‘multiplier effect’
as neighbours
introduce people
to one another
Local authorities
make settings
available for low
cost

EXERCISE 2
48
• Take another look at your ‘situation analysis’ and the outcomes you
thought would contribute to encouraging people to take up ‘active
travel’
• Now think about this ‘at the system level’
– What different stakeholders / institutions might play a role in encouraging
those outcomes?
– Broadly what do you want those stakeholders to do?
– Is there any sequence or interrelationship between stakeholders?
• Remember to stay at high level. The detail comes later.

EXERCISE: WHERE WOULD YOU CHALLENGE THIS THEORY
OF CHANGE?
Reduce social
isolation /
loneliness
Maximise
wellbeing
Slowed cognitive
decline
Prevent health
conditions from
becoming chronic
Have better /
maintain
relationships with
carers
Better / maintain
sense of belonging
/ inclusion
Improved ‘social
resources’, skills,
networks
Better / maintain
self-knowledge /
worth/esteem,
pride, sense of
purpose
Remain
independent for
longer
Supportive
interactions with staff
Older men feel
listened to /
understood
Meeting-up and
working with peers
on the farm
Carers reduce
emotional stress /
worry & improved
wellbeing
Maximise physical
health
Activities
Change
mechanism
Outcomes
(resilience)
Impact
Increased
engagement in
community
Maintain/ reconnect
with positive identities
More positive about
life
Respite for carers
Use and maintain
their practical skills /
knowledge
Develop positive
relationships with
staff & one another
Sense of control
Choice about which
activities they do
Carers meet and
helped to support
each other
Something different /
out of the house
Calmer, less
agitated / anxious
More physically
active
Physically active in
outdoor environment
Enjoyment / senses
stimulated / uplifted
Assisted animal
therapies
Calming environment
Better sleep
Secure / safe /
welcoming
environment
Rural landscape
Reminiscence
activities
Physical & mental wellbeing
Personal
Social
Personal relationships

STEPS 9 / 10: ASSUMPTIONS - CHALLENGE
YOUR THEORY OF CHANGE:
Enabling factors: What external things could effect the way this works? (help or hinder)
• What do other stakeholders need to do to support us?
• What factors outside our control might help or hinder our success?
• What conditions will support success?
Delivery assumptions: What do we need to do to deliver effectively?
• Staff will have sufficient capacity / capability to make it work
• We can identify and reach people in our target group
Impact assumptions: Assuming everything goes to plan, what are key questions or concerns
we still have about whether this will work?
• Is this activity is sufficient to address the problem identified?
• For whom will it be most successful?
Possible negative / unintended consequences?
• What could go wrong? How might people respond negatively?
• Will our activities distract or take resources from something else?
51

EXAMPLE: DERVENTIO HOUSING
52
Enabling factors. How will the wider environment affect us?
• Suitable properties exist for Derventio to rent out, available at the right price
• Wider society will accept homeless people There is appropriate housing for residents to move
into
• The right opportunities exist within society, so that if residents follow advice and take
responsibility for themselves they will achieve their goals
Assumptions about viability. Can we deliver?
• The support we are funded to provide is enough to achieve to deliver a quality services
• It is financially viable to identify, set up and maintain properties
Assumptions about our service users. Is the theory valid?
• A key assumption is that residents have the potential for attitudinal change
• The experience of living securely, with low levels of personal support is enough to create a
positive mind-set for change
• It is ultimately possible for homeless people to live independently and be part of society—and
the level of support provided is sufficient to help them do that
Possible negative / unintended consequences?
• That residents don’t cause harm (perceived or otherwise) within their communities
• That residents don’t become dependent upon our support

53
Logic model Outcome chain
Fancy
Narrative
STEP 8: DIFFERENT OPTIONS FOR REPRESENTING
A THEORY OF CHANGE
Templates to make
it look nice
https://muesli-impact.org/
https://prezi.com/ap-t3x6cv3v-/unltds-theory-of-change/
Bells and whistles
https://www.switchback.org.uk/what-we-do/theory-of-change/
https://usaidlearninglab.org/lab-notes/what-thing-called-theory-change

THEORY OF CHANGE AS A ‘THREE STAGE’ /
‘10 STEP’ PROCESS
54
• 1a) The ‘problem’ you want to tackle
• 1b) The context, barriers and
opportunities for change
• 1c) The resources you have and where
you can make the most difference
Situation
analysis
• Target group
• Impact
• Outcomes
• Activities
• Mechanisms / quality
• Sequence
• Diagram
Theory of
change
• ‘Enabling factors’: How the theory of
change might be helped / hindered by the
outside world
• Weaknesses / risks that reveal your
underlying thinking
Assumptions
https://www.thinknpc.org/resou
rce-hub/theory-of-change-in-
ten-steps/

SUMMARY
55
Summary
• Key elements of what a theory of change is and the benefits
• In exercise 1, and through our ten step guide, we have given you an approach /
template for working on simpler theories of change that focus on a single relationship.
This is most useful for smaller projects and elements of larger projects
• In exercise 2, we have shown how to think about larger, more ambitious projects by
developing a ‘macro’ theory of change at an early stage to help you break down the task
into manageable chunks.
Next Steps
• Catch-up / review session at 12pm on 2 July.
• Opportunity to ask questions / discuss progress. We will also think a bit more about how
you might apply the theory of change approach.
• We will provide templates for both the simpler theory of change and the macro theory of
change and we suggest applying them to your own projects.

vJames.noble@thinknpc.org, Nicola.Pritchard@thinknpc.org
June 2018
Thank You

FURTHER RESOURCES
New NPC Ten Step guide https://www.thinknpc.org/resource-hub/theory-of-change-in-ten-steps/
New Philanthropy Capital – Theory of change the beginning of making a difference. A short introduction.
Mapping Change: Using a Theory of Change to guide planning and evaluation, Grantcraft.
http://www.grantcraft.org/assets/content/resources/theory_change.pdf
Keystone Accountability – Developing a theory of change. A practical guide with templates for workshops.
Emphasises the importance of System Mapping as a development phase.
Better Evaluation Guidance on theory of change:
https://www.betterevaluation.org/en/resources/guide/theory_of_change
Campaigning for change: Learning from the United States. Brian Lamb (NCVO). A good introduction to
theory of change for campaigning, with discussions of possible uses.
Top 10 tips on using theory of change to plan a winning campaign: NCVO Blog with useful tips throughout
the theory of change process.
Using the composite logic model To Articulate an Advocacy Strategy or Theory of Change: Template of
questions for developing a logic model in for campaigning / advocacy work.
Theory of change for advocacy and campaigns: Blog from Bond outlining the stages they recommend for a
theory of change process
NPC’s guide to theory of change for funders: https://www.thinknpc.org/resource-hub/theory-of-change-for-
funders-planning-to-make-a-difference/
Geoff Mulgan: What’s wrong with theories of change? https://www.nesta.org.uk/blog/whats-wrong-with-
theories-of-change/
57

THE DIAGRAM
58
What is it for?
• A summary / centrepiece of the theory of change ‘output’
• The discipline of condensing things on to one page can help you
identify duplication and excess wordiness
• Where a sequence exists it can be useful to show this
Tips
• You don’t have to include everything. Max 20 boxes, append all the
detail, stay at a high level
• Using Miro or Prezi is a good way to include detail without
overcrowding
Better
understanding
between
colleagues
Improved sense of
purpose and
motivation
Wider
understanding of
aims & plans
Increased
confidence in plans
Stronger
programmes that
reflect better
thinking / evidence
Improved
evaluation &
performance
management
1b) Develop a
clear, consistent
plans and aims
3) Summarise
plans (in diagrams)
and communicate
succinctly
Reflection / soul-
searching about:
context, what we
aim to achieve; and
how?
4) Determine
clearer research
questions and data
requirements
Increased support
and funding
Better delivery /
performance
Our charitable
activities reach,
engage & influence
more people
Monitoring and
evaluation address
relevant questions
More positive
impact for
beneficiaries and
communities
Better short-term
measures of
progress
Consultation with
staff, volunteers,
service users to
gain ideas,
thoughts, feedback
Background
research / evidence
into the ‘problem’
and possible
solutions
Someone to lead
the process and
bring it together
2) Identify
challenges /
weaknesses / gaps
- and agree
priorities, strategies
1a) Team work,
Identifying and
negotiate different
perspectives
Buy-in /
enthusiasm
https://miro.com/about/ https://prezi.com/ap-t3x6cv3v-/unltds-theory-of-change/

59
Logic model Outcome chain
Fancy
Narrative
OPTIONS FOR REPRESENTING A THEORY
OF CHANGE
Templates to make
it look nice
https://muesli-impact.org/
https://prezi.com/ap-t3x6cv3v-/unltds-theory-of-change/
Bells and whistles
https://www.switchback.org.uk/what-we-do/theory-of-change/
https://usaidlearninglab.org/lab-notes/what-thing-called-theory-change