1. Food subsidies amidst inflationary shocks:
Evidence from Egypt
International Food Policy Research Institute
May 22, 2023
Kibrom Abay, Country Program Leader, IFPRI

2. Motivation
• Despite some progresses to end hunger, a significant share of the world’s population
continues to suffer from food insecurity and malnutrition.
• Recent evaluations suggest that the United Nations 2030 Agenda for SDG to end
hunger may not be achieved in the remaining few years
•

3. Challenging Conditions
• Egypt was not spared from these
recurring global crises
• Food inflation tripled since the
outbreak of the Russian-Ukraine crisis
• Reached 62 percent in March 2023.
• This has important macroeconomic
and microeconomic implications

4. Social protection amidst inflationary shocks
• Inflationary shocks generate double burden to social protection programs
• Under normal circumstances-provide minimum support to vulnerable
households
• When shocks arise, vulnerable households need additional support
• Not all interventions (and modalities) to shocks are effective
• For example, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, 186 countries
implemented direct cash transfers to households while another 181
introduced in-kind programs (Berkouwer et al., 2021).
• What is the optimal government policy and social protection program in
response to an economic/inflationary crisis?
• It is not uniform, welfare implications likely vary across contexts
• Cash and in-kind transfers have different advantages, each suitable for
specific contexts.

5. Lessons from Evaluation of Egyptian Food Bank’s
General Feeding Program (GFP)
• EFB’s GFP provides monthly food boxes to ultra-poor households
• EFB’s beneficiaries are the ultra-poor households, which according to the
CAPMAS 2020 census make up to 4.5 percent of the Egyptian population
• The EFB uses community-based organizations (CBOs) as recruiting partners
• Potential program beneficiaries are further screened by EFB for compliance with
eligibility requirements such as being a female-headed household and reporting an
income insufficient to cover basic needs
• The EFB is redesigning the GFP, and food boxes are being redesigned to include
more diverse and nutrient dense food items.
• This is happening in a context characterized by inflationary shock
• We evaluate the absolute and relative impact of the newly designed food package

6. Intervention
Old Box New Box

7. Experimental Design
• The intervention followed a clustered randomized approach
• The randomization was done at the level of villages
• We started with a complete list of villages from the census
• Villages were stratified across governorate and rural/urban areas
• We randomly chose 250 communities and randomly assigned them into five
treatment arms (50 each)
• Sampling within strata was proportional to strata size
• We dropped and replaced communities:
• With no partner community-based organization for the EFB
• Those with very few potential beneficiaries (as identified by the CBOs)

8. TBD
Endline Data
Collection
21 March
2023
Midline Data
Collection
End
5 March
2023
Midline Data
Collection
Start
20 August
2022
Baseline Data
Collection
Start
14 November
2022
Intervention Start
22 October
2022
Baseline Data
Collection
End
Implementation Timeline
Treatment Arms
1. New Box Only
2. New Box and Messaging
3. Old Box Only
4. Messaging Only
5. Control
Treatment Arms
1. New Box Only
2. New Box and Messaging
3. Old Box Only
4. Messaging Only
5. Control
Treatment Arms
1. New Box Only
2. New Box and Messaging
3. Old Box Only
4. Messaging Only
5. Control
2 months

9. Results and Discussion

10. Household Dietary Diversity (1)
• The control group
experienced
deterioration in dietary
diversity
• Those who received
the box were protected
• Indeed, the New Box
increased dietary
diversity

11. Food Insecurity Experience Score (1)
• Food Insecurity
Experience Scale
(FIES)-Increased for
the control group
• Those receiving the
box felt protected
• Indeed, FIES
improved for those
households receiving
the New Box

12. Household Dietary Diversity (2)
• The protective role of
the New Box is
stronger for those not
receiving Tamween

13. How popular are food boxes?
• Preference for in-kind
food box over
equivalent cash
significantly increased
in the midline
• This more so, for those
exposed to the New
Box.

14. Concluding Remarks
• In the absence of food subsidies, dietary diversity and food security
deteriorated
• However, the food boxes did play protective roles
• Indeed, the New Box increased dietary diversity and reduced food
insecurity
• The protective role of the New Box is stronger for those not receiving
Tamween
• Preference for in-kind food box over equivalent cash significantly
increased in the midline and more so for those exposed to the New Box
• Inflation and exposure to in-kind box