Piksel's Global Lead Analyst Alan Wolk dispels seven common myths about today's TV industry, taking on everything from cord cutting to Twitter in this insightful and valuable presentation.
5. Here are just of few
of the
misconceptions
floating around
6. MYTH #1
Cord-cutting is a
mass
movement
ROOKLYN
B
fueled mostly by tech
savvy millennials who
get their TV from the
internet
7. MYTH #1
Cord-cutting is a
mass
movement
ROOKLYN
B
fueled mostly by tech
savvy millennials who
get their TV from the
internet
G!
ON
WR
8. Research shows that when it
actually does happen,
cord-cutting is largely
an economic decision,
DETROIT
made by people who can no
longer afford pay TV and give it
up for rabbit ears, not Netflix,
Amazon and Hulu.
12. More About Cord Cutting
BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS
Viewers who cut the cord for
economic reasons frequently return
to pay TV when their circumstances
improve, and then cut the cord
again when they deteriorate.
13. More About Cord Cutting
BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS
Viewers who cut the cord for
economic reasons frequently return
to pay TV when their circumstances
improve, and then cut the cord
again when they deteriorate.
Unlike professionals who make
moral/philosophical decisions to
abandon pay TV (and write about
it on media and tech blogs) this
demographic is not lost to the
industry forever.
14. More About Cord Cutting
BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS
Viewers who cut the cord for
economic reasons frequently return
to pay TV when their circumstances
improve, and then cut the cord
again when they deteriorate.
Unlike professionals who make
moral/philosophical decisions to
abandon pay TV (and write about
it on media and tech blogs) this
demographic is not lost to the
industry forever.
PAY TV PENETRATION
15. More About Cord Cutting
BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS
PAY TV PENETRATION
Viewers who cut the cord for
economic reasons frequently return
to pay TV when their circumstances
improve, and then cut the cord
again when they deteriorate.
•
Unlike professionals who make
moral/philosophical decisions to
abandon pay TV (and write about
it on media and tech blogs) this
demographic is not lost to the
industry forever.
Pay TV penetration in the US is around 87%
16. More About Cord Cutting
BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS
PAY TV PENETRATION
Viewers who cut the cord for
economic reasons frequently return
to pay TV when their circumstances
improve, and then cut the cord
again when they deteriorate.
•
Unlike professionals who make
moral/philosophical decisions to
abandon pay TV (and write about
it on media and tech blogs) this
demographic is not lost to the
industry forever.
Pay TV penetration in the US is around 87%
•
In the early 2000s, it was around 80%
17. More About Cord Cutting
BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS
PAY TV PENETRATION
Viewers who cut the cord for
economic reasons frequently return
to pay TV when their circumstances
improve, and then cut the cord
again when they deteriorate.
•
Unlike professionals who make
moral/philosophical decisions to
abandon pay TV (and write about
it on media and tech blogs) this
demographic is not lost to the
industry forever.
Pay TV penetration in the US is around 87%
•
In the early 2000s, it was around 80%
•
Satellite services added another 6% in the
mid-2000s, mostly those who could not
afford or get access to traditional cable
18. More About Cord Cutting
BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS
PAY TV PENETRATION
Viewers who cut the cord for
economic reasons frequently return
to pay TV when their circumstances
improve, and then cut the cord
again when they deteriorate.
•
Unlike professionals who make
moral/philosophical decisions to
abandon pay TV (and write about
it on media and tech blogs) this
demographic is not lost to the
industry forever.
Pay TV penetration in the US is around 87%
•
In the early 2000s, it was around 80%
•
Satellite services added another 6% in the
mid-2000s, mostly those who could not
afford or get access to traditional cable
•
A final 1% came on board in the past few
years, during the digital era
19. More About Cord Cutting
BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS
PAY TV PENETRATION
Viewers who cut the cord for
economic reasons frequently return
to pay TV when their circumstances
improve, and then cut the cord
again when they deteriorate.
•
Unlike professionals who make
moral/philosophical decisions to
abandon pay TV (and write about
it on media and tech blogs) this
demographic is not lost to the
industry forever.
Pay TV penetration in the US is around 87%
•
•
Satellite services added another 6% in the
mid-2000s, mostly those who could not
afford or get access to traditional cable
•
•
In the early 2000s, it was around 80%
A final 1% came on board in the past few
years, during the digital era
A recent— and oft-cited— Nielsen study
revealed there were 5 million “zero TV
households” up from 2 million in 2007.
20. More About Cord Cutting
BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS
PAY TV PENETRATION
Viewers who cut the cord for
economic reasons frequently return
to pay TV when their circumstances
improve, and then cut the cord
again when they deteriorate.
•
Unlike professionals who make
moral/philosophical decisions to
abandon pay TV (and write about
it on media and tech blogs) this
demographic is not lost to the
industry forever.
Pay TV penetration in the US is around 87%
•
•
Satellite services added another 6% in the
mid-2000s, mostly those who could not
afford or get access to traditional cable
•
•
In the early 2000s, it was around 80%
A final 1% came on board in the past few
years, during the digital era
A recent— and oft-cited— Nielsen study
revealed there were 5 million “zero TV
households” up from 2 million in 2007.
•
Given that pay TV subscriptions actually
grew during that period, many are likely
part of the 15 million households (13%)
who never had pay TV to begin with.
21. Numerous surveys show that Americans
are largely dissatisfied with
their pay TV service, so while cord
cutting may not be an issue today, it
could soon become one: high prices
and dissatisfied customers are a
deadly combination.
22. Numerous surveys show that Americans
are largely dissatisfied with
their pay TV service, so while cord
cutting may not be an issue today, it
could soon become one: high prices
and dissatisfied customers are a
deadly combination.
What’s stopping it?
23. Numerous surveys show that Americans
are largely dissatisfied with
their pay TV service, so while cord
cutting may not be an issue today, it
could soon become one: high prices
and dissatisfied customers are a
deadly combination.
What’s stopping it?
A lack of
attractive alternatives:
24. Numerous surveys show that Americans
are largely dissatisfied with
their pay TV service, so while cord
cutting may not be an issue today, it
could soon become one: high prices
and dissatisfied customers are a
deadly combination.
What’s stopping it?
A lack of
attractive alternatives:
Cobbled together solutions requiring a
number of different devices are not a
viable mass market option.
25. MYTH #2
Kids pretty much
ignore
mainstream
TV and just watch
Netflix on their
iPads
26. MYTH #2
Kids pretty much
ignore
mainstream
TV and just watch
Netflix on their
iPads
G!
ON
WR
27. A recent Kaiser study shows that
71%
of 8-18 year olds have a
TV in their bedroom.
28. A recent Kaiser study shows that
71%
of 8-18 year olds have a
TV in their bedroom.
A Deloitte survey of “trailing
millennials (ages 14 -23) shows
that while
20%
say they watch
TV on their tablets,
62% are
still watching live on a TV set
29. A recent Kaiser study shows that
71%
of 8-18 year olds have a
TV in their bedroom.
A Deloitte survey of “trailing
millennials (ages 14 -23) shows
that while
20%
say they watch
TV on their tablets,
62% are
still watching live on a TV set
A 2013 Pew survey shows that
only
35% of Americans
actually own tablets.
32. Viewing habits are changing
They’re just not there yet.
Tablet and streaming viewing index
much higher with upper income
families, but even there they are far
from the dominant behavior.
33. Viewing habits are changing
They’re just not there yet.
Tablet and streaming viewing index
much higher with upper income
families, but even there they are far
from the dominant behavior.
It’s hard to predict what will become
the dominant behavior, but live TV
viewed on an actual TV set is still
the primary use case for all age and
income groups.
34. Viewing habits are changing
They’re just not there yet.
Tablet and streaming viewing index
much higher with upper income
families, but even there they are far
from the dominant behavior.
It’s hard to predict what will become
the dominant behavior, but live TV
viewed on an actual TV set is still
the primary use case for all age and
income groups.
Remember too, that the viewing
habits of today’s 12 year olds won’t
start to affect the industry for at least
10 more years.
35. Viewing habits are changing
They’re just not there yet.
Tablet and streaming viewing index
much higher with upper income
families, but even there they are far
from the dominant behavior.
It’s hard to predict what will become
the dominant behavior, but live TV
viewed on an actual TV set is still
the primary use case for all age and
income groups.
Remember too, that the viewing
habits of today’s 12 year olds won’t
start to affect the industry for at least
10 more years.
36. MYTH #3
Your pay TV
provider is the one
forcing you to
pay for 800
channels you
don’t want to
watch
37. MYTH #3
Your pay TV
provider is the one
forcing you to
pay for 800
channels you
don’t want to
watch
G!
ON
WR
38. The networks
are the ones
forcing pay TV operators to take
bundles— groupings of
channels they own. So if you have
ABC, you also have Disney and
Disney XD and ESPN and ESPN2
39. The networks
are the ones
forcing pay TV operators to take
bundles— groupings of
channels they own. So if you have
ABC, you also have Disney and
Disney XD and ESPN and ESPN2
The operators would love to
break up the
bundles and offer smaller,
cheaper packages but the
networks won’t do it.
40. The networks
are the ones
forcing pay TV operators to take
bundles— groupings of
channels they own. So if you have
ABC, you also have Disney and
Disney XD and ESPN and ESPN2
The operators would love to
break up the
bundles and offer smaller,
cheaper packages but the
networks won’t do it.
In their defense, the networks
claim that bundling keeps fees
down by spreading out costs,
something many analysts believe
is a
valid point.
42. Who Owns What: Network Bundles
ABC/DISNEY
!
ABC Television
ABC News
Fusion
A+E Networks (JV)
• A&E
• History
• Bio.
• H2
• Military History
• Crime & Investigation
• Lifetime
• Lifetime Movie Network
• Lifetime Real Women
Disney Channel
Disney Cinemagic
Disney Junior
Disney XD
ESPN
ESPN2
ESPN on ABC
ESPN Classic
ESPNews
ESPN Deportes
43. Who Owns What: Network Bundles
ABC/DISNEY
CBS
ABC Television
ABC News
Fusion
A+E Networks (JV)
• A&E
• History
• Bio.
• H2
• Military History
• Crime & Investigation
• Lifetime
• Lifetime Movie Network
• Lifetime Real Women
Disney Channel
Disney Cinemagic
Disney Junior
Disney XD
ESPN
ESPN2
ESPN on ABC
ESPN Classic
ESPNews
ESPN Deportes
CBS Television
CBS News
CBS Sports
The CW
Showtime
Showtime 2,
Showtime Showcase,
Showtime Extreme
Showtime Beyond
Showtime Next
Showtime Women
Showtime Family Zone
The Movie Channel
The Movie Channel Xtra
Smithsonian
TV Guide Network
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44. Who Owns What: Network Bundles
ABC/DISNEY
CBS
NBC UNIVERSAL
ABC Television
ABC News
Fusion
A+E Networks (JV)
• A&E
• History
• Bio.
• H2
• Military History
• Crime & Investigation
• Lifetime
• Lifetime Movie Network
• Lifetime Real Women
Disney Channel
Disney Cinemagic
Disney Junior
Disney XD
ESPN
ESPN2
ESPN on ABC
ESPN Classic
ESPNews
ESPN Deportes
CBS Television
CBS News
CBS Sports
The CW
Showtime
Showtime 2,
Showtime Showcase,
Showtime Extreme
Showtime Beyond
Showtime Next
Showtime Women
Showtime Family Zone
The Movie Channel
The Movie Channel Xtra
Smithsonian
TV Guide Network
Bravo
Chiller
Cloo
CNBC
E!
Esquire Channel
G4
MSNBC
Mun2
NBC
NBC Sports
Oxygen
PBS Kids Sprout
Syfy
Telemundo
The Golf Channel
The Weather
Channel (JV)
TV One (JV)
Universal HD
USA Network
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45. Who Owns What: Network Bundles
ABC/DISNEY
CBS
NBC UNIVERSAL
FOX
ABC Television
ABC News
Fusion
A+E Networks (JV)
• A&E
• History
• Bio.
• H2
• Military History
• Crime & Investigation
• Lifetime
• Lifetime Movie Network
• Lifetime Real Women
Disney Channel
Disney Cinemagic
Disney Junior
Disney XD
ESPN
ESPN2
ESPN on ABC
ESPN Classic
ESPNews
ESPN Deportes
CBS Television
CBS News
CBS Sports
The CW
Showtime
Showtime 2,
Showtime Showcase,
Showtime Extreme
Showtime Beyond
Showtime Next
Showtime Women
Showtime Family Zone
The Movie Channel
The Movie Channel Xtra
Smithsonian
TV Guide Network
Bravo
Chiller
Cloo
CNBC
E!
Esquire Channel
G4
MSNBC
Mun2
NBC
NBC Sports
Oxygen
PBS Kids Sprout
Syfy
Telemundo
The Golf Channel
The Weather
Channel (JV)
TV One (JV)
Universal HD
USA Network
Big Ten Network (JV)
Fox Business Network
Fox College Sports
Fox Broadcasting
Fox News Channel
Fox Soccer Plus
Fox Sports 1
Fox Sports 2
Fox Sports Networks
FX
FXX
FX Movie Channel
National Geographic
Channel (JV)
Nat Geo Mundo (JV)
Nat Geo Wild (JV)
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46. Who Owns What: Network Bundles
ABC/DISNEY
CBS
NBC UNIVERSAL
FOX
VIACOM
ABC Television
ABC News
Fusion
A+E Networks (JV)
• A&E
• History
• Bio.
• H2
• Military History
• Crime & Investigation
• Lifetime
• Lifetime Movie Network
• Lifetime Real Women
Disney Channel
Disney Cinemagic
Disney Junior
Disney XD
ESPN
ESPN2
ESPN on ABC
ESPN Classic
ESPNews
ESPN Deportes
CBS Television
CBS News
CBS Sports
The CW
Showtime
Showtime 2,
Showtime Showcase,
Showtime Extreme
Showtime Beyond
Showtime Next
Showtime Women
Showtime Family Zone
The Movie Channel
The Movie Channel Xtra
Smithsonian
TV Guide Network
Bravo
Chiller
Cloo
CNBC
E!
Esquire Channel
G4
MSNBC
Mun2
NBC
NBC Sports
Oxygen
PBS Kids Sprout
Syfy
Telemundo
The Golf Channel
The Weather
Channel (JV)
TV One (JV)
Universal HD
USA Network
Big Ten Network (JV)
Fox Business Network
Fox College Sports
Fox Broadcasting
Fox News Channel
Fox Soccer Plus
Fox Sports 1
Fox Sports 2
Fox Sports Networks
FX
FXX
FX Movie Channel
National Geographic
Channel (JV)
Nat Geo Mundo (JV)
Nat Geo Wild (JV)
BET
CMT
CMT Pure Country
Comedy Central
Logo
MTV
MTV2
MTV Hits
MTV Jams
mtvU
Nick at Nite
Nick Jr.
Nickelodeon
Nicktoons
Palladia
Spike
TeenNick
Tr3s
TV Land
VH1
VH1 Classic
VH1 Soul
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47. MYTH #4
Cutting the cord
and switching to
web TV lets you
stick it to
the cable
companies for
overcharging you!
48. MYTH #4
Cutting the cord
and switching to
web TV lets you
stick it to
the cable
companies for
overcharging you!
G!
ON
WR
49. Where do you think that
internet connection
comes from?
50. Where do you think that
internet connection
comes from?
own the
broadband connections in
the US, and with just two or
three providers to choose
The MVPDs
from, competition isn’t fierce
51. Where do you think that
internet connection
comes from?
own the
broadband connections in
the US, and with just two or
three providers to choose
The MVPDs
from, competition isn’t fierce
That’s why the MVPDs aren’t too
worried about you switching
to Netflix. They’ll just impose
bandwidth caps to make
up the difference
53. Net Neutrality and GAFA
GAFA (GoogleAmazonFacebookApple) have all
been trying to break into the TV industry to no
avail. The networks and studios believe they have
no reason to play ball with them.
54. Net Neutrality and GAFA
GAFA (GoogleAmazonFacebookApple) have all
been trying to break into the TV industry to no
avail. The networks and studios believe they have
no reason to play ball with them.
Recent speculation has centered on GAFA
lobbying to break up the hold the MVPDs
have on broadband access in the US and it’s
potential interference with the principle of Net
Neutrality.
55. Net Neutrality and GAFA
GAFA (GoogleAmazonFacebookApple) have all
been trying to break into the TV industry to no
avail. The networks and studios believe they have
no reason to play ball with them.
Recent speculation has centered on GAFA
lobbying to break up the hold the MVPDs
have on broadband access in the US and it’s
potential interference with the principle of Net
Neutrality.
Were they to convince the powers that be to
redistribute broadband access, the effect
on the industry would be considerable.
57. MYTH #5
Second Screen is
all about
Social TV
and Social TV is all
about
Twitter
G!
ON
WR
58. Second Screen is more
than just social TV and
social TV is more than
just Twitter
59. Second Screen is more
than just social TV and
social TV is more than
just Twitter
75% of Americans rarely, if
ever, use Twitter and that number
seems to be staying pretty static
60. Second Screen is more
than just social TV and
social TV is more than
just Twitter
75% of Americans rarely, if
ever, use Twitter and that number
seems to be staying pretty static
binge
time-shifted
The trend towards
viewing and
viewing works against
Twitter’s time-sensitive platform.
62. More About Second Screen
TWITTER
While Twitter is popular with event shows, game
shows and shows aimed at teenage girls, another
type of second screen experience is being
developed to account for binge and time-shifting
viewing.
63. More About Second Screen
TWITTER
While Twitter is popular with event shows, game
shows and shows aimed at teenage girls, another
type of second screen experience is being
developed to account for binge and time-shifting
viewing.
Aimed at serious fans rather than casual viewers,
these experiences are designed to be accessed
after, rather than during, the show, when fans can
spend more time with them.
64. More About Second Screen
TWITTER
While Twitter is popular with event shows, game
shows and shows aimed at teenage girls, another
type of second screen experience is being
developed to account for binge and time-shifting
viewing.
Aimed at serious fans rather than casual viewers,
these experiences are designed to be accessed
after, rather than during, the show, when fans can
spend more time with them.
They can also be ad supported, creating a second
revenue stream for networks and operators.
65. More About Second Screen
TWITTER
While Twitter is popular with event shows, game
shows and shows aimed at teenage girls, another
type of second screen experience is being
developed to account for binge and time-shifting
viewing.
Aimed at serious fans rather than casual viewers,
these experiences are designed to be accessed
after, rather than during, the show, when fans can
spend more time with them.
They can also be ad supported, creating a second
revenue stream for networks and operators.
The 4 S’s
66. More About Second Screen
TWITTER
The 4 S’s
While Twitter is popular with event shows, game
shows and shows aimed at teenage girls, another
type of second screen experience is being
developed to account for binge and time-shifting
viewing.
Future second screen experiences
will be populated by some
combination of the 4 S’s:
Aimed at serious fans rather than casual viewers,
these experiences are designed to be accessed
after, rather than during, the show, when fans can
spend more time with them.
They can also be ad supported, creating a second
revenue stream for networks and operators.
67. More About Second Screen
TWITTER
The 4 S’s
While Twitter is popular with event shows, game
shows and shows aimed at teenage girls, another
type of second screen experience is being
developed to account for binge and time-shifting
viewing.
Future second screen experiences
will be populated by some
combination of the 4 S’s:
Aimed at serious fans rather than casual viewers,
these experiences are designed to be accessed
after, rather than during, the show, when fans can
spend more time with them.
They can also be ad supported, creating a second
revenue stream for networks and operators.
STORIES: scenes from next week,
behind the scenes videos, cast
member interviews, etc.
SOCIAL: in-app message boards
and blogs plus Twitter and
Facebook
STATS: sports statistics, polls, voting,
infographics
SHOPPING: t-commerce from
product placement and advertising
68. MYTH #6
TV viewing has
decreased
Thanks to the
internet, people are
watching
less TV
69. MYTH #6
TV viewing has
decreased
Thanks to the
internet, people are
watching
less TV
G!
ON
WR
70. People are watching
more TV than ever.
They’re just not watching
it live.
Time-shifting and
VOD means that
more people are
watching than ever
before.
71. People are watching
more TV than ever.
They’re just not watching
it live.
Time-shifting and
VOD means that
more people are
watching than ever
before.
Hence the pressure on
Nielsen to take a full 7
days of time shifted
viewing into account
72. MYTH #7
TV Everywhere
is the future.
We’ll be able to
watch TV
wherever, whenever
and however we
want
73. MYTH #7
TV Everywhere
is the future.
We’ll be able to
watch TV
wherever, whenever
and however we
want
G!
ON
WR
rt of)
(so
74. We’ll be able to watch TV
whenever and however,
but
wherever
may still be an issue
75. We’ll be able to watch TV
whenever and however,
but
wherever
may still be an issue
Out-of-home doesn’t
have many use cases
beyond news and
live sports and rights
issues continue to be an
issue, so operators may
not push it.
77. The TV Industry Is Changing
It’s just not changing as fast
as many would like it to.
78. The TV Industry Is Changing
It’s just not changing as fast
as many would like it to.
A lot of that has to do with the fact that most
players are still making money. So there’s no
incentive for them to change and the
industry is too tightly bound together for
anyone try and go it alone.
79. The TV Industry Is Changing
It’s just not changing as fast
as many would like it to.
A lot of that has to do with the fact that most
players are still making money. So there’s no
incentive for them to change and the
industry is too tightly bound together for
anyone try and go it alone.
The key to success in the years ahead will be
to constantly re-evaluate your decisions.
Because what made sense six months ago,
may no longer make sense today.
80. The TV Industry Is Changing
It’s just not changing as fast
as many would like it to.
A lot of that has to do with the fact that most
players are still making money. So there’s no
incentive for them to change and the
industry is too tightly bound together for
anyone try and go it alone.
The key to success in the years ahead will be
to constantly re-evaluate your decisions.
Because what made sense six months ago,
may no longer make sense today.
Things change slowly. And then, all at once.
81. Thank You.
If you’d like to benefit from
insights like the ones
you found here, contact us at info@piksel.com
82. Some Proof I’m Not Just Making This Up
SLIDE 5: “Moffett and Nathanson wrote. "We have always argued that cord-cutting is an economic
phenomenon, not a technological one. ... Rapidly rising prices are squeezing lower-income consumers
out of the ecosystem.” Los Angeles Times, Nov 12, 2013
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SLIDE 5: Pace Of Cord-Cutting Growth Slows in Q3: Analyst. Multichannel News, Nov 12, 2013
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SLIDE 6: Study: U.S. Broadband Homes Without Pay-TV are Basically Flat at 9% VideoNuze iQ, Oct 3, 2013
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SLIDE 9: Kaiser Study. Pew Study. Deloitte Study
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SLIDE 18: In their IPO filing, Twitter stated they had 100 million “active users” and that 77% of usage was USbased. 77 million people = 24.5% of the population.
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SLIDE 18: Twitter Has A Serious User Growth Problem Ahead of its IPO, AllTwitter, Oct 17, 2013
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SLIDE 21: Surprise, You’re Watching More TV Than Ever, AllThingsDigital, Dec. 4, 2013
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SLIDE 23: Report: Pay-TV Tablet App Usage Improves, But Still Nominal Video iQ, Sept 3, 2013
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