A fuzzy ahp model in risk ranking

Alexander Decker
Alexander DeckerEditor in chief à International Institute for Science, Technology and Education
European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org
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A Fuzzy AHP Model in Risk Ranking
Mohsen Askari, Hamid Reza Shokrizadeh,Nina Ghane
1. Department of industrial Management, Payame Noor University, PO BOX 19395-3697 Tehran ,Iran
2. Department of Management, Payame Noor University, PO BOX 19395-3697 Tehran ,Iran
3.Master of Business Management, Ershad university, Iran, Tehran
Abstract
The signification risks associated with construction projects need special attention from contractors to analyze
and mange the risks. Risk management is the art and science of identifying, analyzing and responding to risk
factors throughout the life cycle of the project and in the best interest of its objectives.
In proposed model, we firstly identify risks in the construction projects and suitable criteria for evaluate risks
and then structure the proposed AHP model. Finally we measure the significant risks in construction projects
(SRCP) based on the project’s objectives by using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) technique.
Keyword: Construction projects, Project Risk Management, Fuzzy AHP
1. Introduction
The increasing growth of the construction projects calls for massive development of infrastructures and assets.
While this brings opportunities to project stakeholders, employing effective risk management techniques coped
risks associated with variable construction activities is of importance to implement the projects aligning with
project objectives including time, cost, quality, scope sustainability. Therefore, it is important to identify and
assess the significant risks in the construction projects in order to help local companies and international
companies who do or plan to work in the construction projects to pay attention to these significant risks.
1.1. Construction Projects
Flanagan & Norman [1] expressed that construction projects are one-off endeavors with many unique features
such as long period, complicated processes, abominable environment, financial intensity and dynamic
organization structures and such organizational and technological complexity generates enormous risks.
The number, size and complexity of new projects have created an extra burden on construction participants and
resulted in lots of risks.
Zhi [2] developed a method of managing various risks for overseas construction projects. In this research he
discussed how to effectively identify the vital risks in overseas projects and introduced a useful risk assessment
technique which combines risk probability analysis with risk impact assessment.
Uher & Toakley [3] set out the results of a study into the use of risk management in the conceptual phase of the
construction project development cycle in the Australian construction industry. Their study consisted of a
literature review, a survey to examine skill levels and attitudes of key players to risk management, and their
attitude to change. They found that while most respondents were familiar with risk management, its application
in the conceptual phase was relatively low, even though individuals were willing to embrace change.
Carr & Tah [4] presented a paper that uses a fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment and analysis.
In this paper, a hierarchical risk breakdown structure is described to represent a formal model for qualitative risk
assessment. The relationships between risk factors, risks, and their consequences are represented on case and
effect diagrams.
Harmon & Stephan [5] stated that complex construction projects are high-risk ventures involving multiple
parties with different interests, thus producing a high potential for conflict.
Moyst & Das [6] have applied the risk classification of the land-based construction industry to the shipbuilding
industry with the aim of determining the factors affecting ship design and construction.
Motawa et al.[7] proposed a fuzzy system for evaluating the risk of change in construction projects.
Zou et al. [8] stated that a major source of risk in construction is the potential changes occurring during the
project lifetime. Changes in construction projects often result from the uncertainty associated with the imprecise
and vague knowledge of much project information at the early stages of projects.
1.2. Projects Risk Management
Burke [9] argued that project risk management is defined by the project management body of knowledge: ‘the
processes concerned with identifying, analyzing, and responding to uncertainty throughout the project life cycle.
It includes maximizing the result of positive events and minimizing the consequences of adverse events.’
Perry [10] broke down the process of risk management into: identification of risk sources, assessment of their
effects (risk analysis), development of management response to risk, and providing for residual risk in project
estimates.
Clark et al. [11] suggested that an identified risk is not a risk unless it is a management problem.
Flanagan and Norman [1] proposed three ways of classifying risk: by identifying the consequence, type and
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impact of risk.
Turner [12] proposed that risk management can be classified into five stages: (i) identifying the source of risk;
(ii) determining the impact of individual risks; (iii) assessing the overall impact of risks; (iv) determining if the
risk can be reduced; and (iv) controlling the identified risk.
Willams [13] described a complete, integrated risk-analysis and management scheme based around the register
that assists in time, cost and technical analyses, helps in the devising of a risk-management plan, and prompts
decisions on risk transfer.
Kangari [14] realized that important risks in construction projects are those relating to safety, quality of work,
defects, productivity and competence.
Abdou [15] classified construction risks into three groups, i.e. construction finance, construction time and
construction design, and addressed these risks in detail in light of the different contractual relationships existing
among the functional entities involved in the design, development and construction of a project.
UNIDO [16] developed a BOT project risk checklist under two major categories (general/country risks and
specific project risks) with three sub-categories under each.
Chapman & Ward [17] said ‘project risk is the implications of the existence of significant uncertainty about the
level of project performance achievable’.
Edwards & Bowen [18] presented a broad classification of land-based construction project risks using natural
(weather systems and geological systems) and human (social, political, economic, financial, legal, health,
managerial, technical, and cultural) categories.
Dey [19] proposed that project risk management processes are categorized : (i) identifying risk factors; (ii)
analyzing their effect; and (iii) responding to risk.
Wang et al. [20] carried out research to evaluate and manage foreign exchange and revenue risks in China’s BOT
projects based on the findings of an international survey on risk management of BOT projects in developing
countries.
Alquier & Tignol [21] classified the risks into internal and external risks, which are respectively those that are
supposed to be under company control (e.g. manufacturer’s risk of products, processes and resources) and those
that the company does not control (e.g. regulation, legal context, currency fluctuations, and environmental
protection).
Raz & Michael [22] showed the results of a study to identify the tools that are most widely used and those that
are associated with successful project management in general, and with effective project risk management in
particular.
Keil et al. [23] investigated the issue of IT project risk from the user perspective and compares it with risk
perceptions of project managers.
Ward & Chapman [24] in their paper argued that all current project risk management processes induce a
restricted focus on the management of project uncertainty. This paper outlines how project risk management
processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective.
McDowall [25] in his paper presented a scheme for undertaking risk management for laboratory automation
projects.
Liebreich [26] used Risk management in financing renewable energy projects.
Yean et al. [27] identified the risks that Singapore-based architecture, engineering and construction (AEC) firms
face when working in India and investigates the risk response techniques adopted by them.
Zou et al. [8] found out the key risks in construction projects in China and to develop strategies to manage them.
Wyk et al. [28] documented the risk management practice of a utility company for its Recovery Plan project to
address the risks of power interruptions due to a shortfall of supply and increasing electricity demand.
Lee et al. [29] proposed a scheme for large engineering project risk management using a Bayesian belief network
and applies it to the Korean shipbuilding industry.
1.3. AHP
The AHP is one of the extensively used multi-criteria decision-making methods. One of the main advantages of
this method is the relative ease with which it handles multiple criteria. In addition to this, AHP is easier to
understand and it can effectively handle both qualitative and quantitative data. AHP involves the principles of
decomposition, pair wise comparisons, and priority vector generation and synthesis. Though the purpose of AHP
is to capture the expert’s knowledge, the conventional AHP still cannot reflect the human thinking style.
Therefore, fuzzy AHP, a fuzzy extension of AHP, was developed to solve the hierarchical fuzzy problems.
There are many fuzzy AHP methods proposed by various authors [30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38].
In this study, we choose Mikhailov’s [36,37] fuzzy prioritization approach because this method has advantages
over other fuzzy AHP approaches. The most important of these advantages is the measurement of consistency
indexes for the fuzzy pair wise comparison matrixes. It is not possible to determine the consistency ratios of
fuzzy pair wise comparison matrixes in other AHP methods without conducting an additional study.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we introduced the proposed model. In Section 3, we
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presented case study . the paper is concluded in Section 4.
2. The Proposed model
The suggested model for the measurement of SRCP includes the steps as following:
Step 1: Identify the criteria (project objectives) and alternatives (risks) to be used in the model.
Step 2: Structure the AHP model.
Step 3: Determine the local weights of the criteria and alternatives by using pair wise comparison matrices. The
fuzzy scale regarding relative importance to measure the relative weights is given in Fig. 1and Table 1. This
scale is proposed by Kahraman et al. [39] and used for solving fuzzy decision-making problems [39, 40] in the
literature. This scale will be used in Mikhailov [36,37] fuzzy prioritization approach.
Fig. 1. Linguistic scale for relative importance
Table1. Linguistic scales for difficulty and importance
Linguistic scales for difficulty Linguistic scale for importance
Triangular
fuzzy scale
Triangular
fuzzy reciprocal
scale
Just equal Just equal (1,1,1) (1,1,1)
Equally difficult (ED) Equally difficult (ED) (1/2,1,3/2) (2/3,1,2)
Weakly more difficult (WMD) Weakly more difficult (WMD) (1,3/2,2) (1/2,2/3,1)
Strongly more difficult (SMD) Strongly more difficult (SMD) (3/2,2,5/2) (2/5,1/2,2/3)
Very strongly more difficult
(VSMD)
Very strongly more difficult
(VSMD)
(2,5/2,3) (1/3,2/5,1/2)
Absolutely more difficult
(AMD)
Absolutely more difficult
(AMD)
(5/2,3,7/2) (2/7,1/3,2/5)
Step 4: Calculate the global weights for the risks. Global risks weights are computed by multiplying local weight
of the risks with the local weight of the criteria.
Step 5: Measure the risks. Linguistic variables proposed by Cheng et al [41] are used in this step. The
membership functions of these linguistic variables are shown in Fig. 2, and the average value related with these
variables are shown in Table 2.
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Fig. 2. Membership functions of linguistic values for risks rating
Table2.Linguistic values and mean of fuzzy numbers
linguistic values for
negative alternatives
Linguistic values for
positive alternatives
The mean of
fuzzy numbers
Very low (VL) Very low (VL) 1
Low (L) Low (L) 0.75
Medium(M) Medium(M) 0.5
High (H) High (H) 0.25
Very high (VH) Very high (VH) 0
Step 6: Calculate the SRCP by using the global risks weights and linguistic values. Depending on the determined
values the following decisions are made:
• 0.80 SRCP 1.0: The significant risks in construction projects is very good for the period of
calculation.
• 0.60 SRCP < 0.80: The significant risks in construction projects is good for the period of calculation.
• 0.40 SRCP < 0.60: The significant risks in construction projects is moderate for the period of
calculation.
• 0.0 SRCP < 0.40: The significant risks in construction projects is bad for the period of calculation.
3 .Case study
Step1:
Step1.1. Identification of risk
Recognition process of possible risks in construction projects and determination of their characteristics is an
effective step in risk identification. This process is carried out by assistance and cooperation of project group,
risk management group and experts of this field out of the organization. By using Brain storming technique, at
first 35 events or risks that affect on construction operations, have been recognized. Then by using Delphi
method, number of these technical risks was decreased to 5. The finalized risks are presented in Table 3. We
consider these risk factors as “alternatives” in proposal AHP model.
Table3. Finalized risks of construction projects
Final risks Description
R1 Economical inflation
R2 International relations
R3 Design failures
R4 Communication matters between
consortium members
R5 Lack of attention to contract requirements
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Step1.2. Determination of the suitable criteria for ranking risk
Like any human undertaking, projects need to be performed and delivered under certain constraints.
Traditionally, these constraints have been listed as "scope," "time," and "cost". These are also referred to as the
"Project Management Triangle," where each side represents a constraint. One side of the triangle cannot be
changed without affecting the others. A further refinement of the constraints separates product "quality" or
"performance" from scope, and turns quality into a fourth constraint.(Fig.4)
The time constraint refers to the amount of time available to complete a project.
The cost constraint refers to the budgeted amount available for the project.
The scope constraint refers to what must be done to produce the project's end result.
These three constraints are often competing constraints: increased scope typically means increased time and
increased cost, a tight time constraint could mean increased costs and reduced scope, and a tight budget could
mean increased time and reduced scope.
The discipline of Project Management is about providing the tools and techniques that enable the project team
(not just the project manager) to organize their work to meet these constraints. We consider these constraints as
“criteria” in our proposed AHP model.
Fig. 3. Project Management Triangle
Step2: The proposed AHP model based on project objectives and risks.
Fig.4.The proposed AHP model for measurement of risks
Step3: In this step, local weights of the criteria and risks which take part in the second and third levels of AHP
model (Fig. 4), are calculated.(Table 4 - 8)
Local weights of the risks are calculated by using the fuzzy comparison values presented in Table1 through
Saaty & Takizawa [42], Saaty [43] fuzzy prioritization approach. Non-linear model shown below was
established for calculating weights and the weights listed in Table5 were calculated by solving this model with
LINGO [44] software.
Max = C;
(1/2) × C × w2 - w1 + w2 <= 0;
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(1/2) × C × w2 + w1 - (2) × w2 <= 0;
(1/2) × C × w3 - w1 + w3 <= 0;
(1/2) × C × w3 + w1 - (2) × w3 <= 0;
(1/2) × C × w4 - w1 + (1/2) × w4 <= 0;
(1/2) × C × w4 + w1 - (3/2) × w4 <= 0;
(1/2) × C × w5 - w1 + (1/2) × w5 <= 0;
(1/2) × C × w5 + w1 - (3/2) × w1 <= 0;
(1/6) × C × w4 - w2 + (1/2) × w4 <= 0;
(1/3) ×C ×w4 + w2 - w4 <= 0;
(1/3) × C × w5 - w2 + (2/3) × w5 <= 0;
C × w5 + w2 - 2 × w5 <= 0;
w1 + w2 + w3 + w4 + w5 = 1;
Thus, for example the weight vector from the above model is calculated as Wcriteria = (0.25, 0.17, 0.17, 0.25,
0.17)T
. Consistency index (C) was calculated as 1.0 and this rate suggested that the fuzzy pairwise comparison
matrix was consistent.
Table 4. Local weights and pair wise comparison matrix of criteria
T C Q S Weights
Time (T) (1,1,1) (1,3/2,2) (1,3/2,2) (1/2,1,3/2) 0.29
Cost (C) (1,1,1) (1/2,1,3/2) (1,3/2,2) 0.25
Quality (Q) (1,1,1) (1,3/2,2) 0.25
Scope (S) (1,1,1) 0.21
C=0.32
Table 5. Local weights and pair wise comparison matrix of time
C=1.0
Table 6.Local weights and pair wise comparison matrix of cost.
C=0.35
Table 7. Local weights and pair wise comparison matrix of quality
C=0.36
R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 Weights
R1 (1,1,1) (1,3/2,2) (1,3/2,2) (1/2,1,3/2) (1/2,1,3/2) 0.25
R2 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) (1/2,2/3,1) (2/3,1,2) 0.17
R3 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) (1,1,1) 0.17
R4 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) 0.25
R5 (1,1,1) 0.17
R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 Weights
R1 (1,1,1) (1/2,1,3/2) (1/2,1,3/2) (1,3/2,2) (1,3/2,2) 0.20
R2 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) (1/2,2/3,1) (2/3,1,2) 0.15
R3 (1,1,1) (2/3,1,2) (2/3,1,2) 0.29
R4 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) 0.17
R5 (1,1,1) 0.17
R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 Weights
R1 (1,1,1) (1,3/2,2) (3/2,2,5/2) (1/2,1,3/2) (1/2,1,3/2) 0.27
R2 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) (1/2,2/3,1) (2/3,1,2) 0.16
R3 (1,1,1) (1/2,2/3,1) (2/3,1,2) 0.16
R4 (1,1,1) (2/3,1,2) 0.21
R5 (1,1,1) 0.20
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Table 8. Local weights and pair wise comparison matrix of scope
C=0.60
Step4: Computed global weights for risks are shown in Table 9.
Table 9.
Computed global weights for risks
Criteria and local weights risks Local weights Global weights
T (0.29) R1 0.25 0.07
R2 0.17 0.05
R3 0.17 0.05
R4 0.25 0.07
R5 0.17 0.05
C (0.25) R1 0.20 0.05
R2 0.15 0.04
R3 0.29 0.07
R4 0.17 0.04
R5 0.17 0.04
Q (0.25) R1 0.27 0.07
R2 0.16 0.04
R3 0.16 0.04
R4 0.21 0.05
R5 0.20 0.05
S (0.21) R1 0.30 0.06
R2 0.16 0.03
R3 0.17 0.04
R4 0.20 0.04
R5 0.18 0.04
Step 5-6: Measure the risks and Calculate the SRCP that are shown in Table 10 and 11.
Table 10. the Linguistics variables related for each project
Final risks
Global Weight
(gw)
Project1 Project2 Project3 Project4
R1 0.25 VL M M L
R2 0.16 M VL H VL
R3 0.2 VL VL VL M
R4 0.2 VL M H M
R5 0.18 L L L L
Table 11. Computed SRCP with the proposed fuzzy AHP model for each project
Final
risks
Global
Weight
Project
1
Project
2
Project
3
Project
4
Project
1
Project
2
Project
3
Project
4
R1 0.25 1 0.5 0.5 0.75 0.25 0.125 0.125 0.1875
R2 0.16 0.5 1 0.25 1 0.08 0.16 0.04 0.16
R3 0.2 1 1 1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
R4 0.2 1 0.5 0.25 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.1
R5 0.18 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.135
SRCP: 0.865 0.72 0.55 0.6825
In this study based on step6
R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 Weights
R1 (1,1,1) (3/2,2,5/2) (3/2,2,5/2) (1,3/2,2) (1,3/2,2) 0.30
R2 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) (1/2,2/3,1) (2/3,1,2) 0.16
R3 (1,1,1) (2/3,1,2) (2/3,1,2) 0.17
R4 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) 0.20
R5 (1,1,1) 0.18
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The SRCP of project 1 is 0.865 that is between 0.80 and 1.0, so this project is very good.
The SRCP of project 2 is 0.72 that is between 0.60 and 0.80, so this project is good.
The SRCP of project 3 is 0.55 that is between 0.40 and 0.60, so this project is moderate.
The SRCP of project 4 is 0.68 that is between 0.60 and 0.80, so this project is good.
4-Conclusion
Managing risks in construction projects has been recognized as a very important process in order to achieve
project objectives in terms of time, cost, quality, scope.Decisions are made today in increasingly complex
environments. In more and more cases the use of experts in various fields is necessary, different value systems
are to be taken into account, etc. In many of such decision-making settings the theory of fuzzy decision making
can be of use. Fuzzy group decision making can overcome this difficulty. we firstly identified risks in the
construction projects and suitable criteria for evaluate risks and then structured the proposed AHP model. Finally
we measured the significant risks in construction projects (SRCP) based on the project’s objectives by using
fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) technique.
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A fuzzy ahp model in risk ranking

  • 1. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.6, No.14, 2014 194 A Fuzzy AHP Model in Risk Ranking Mohsen Askari, Hamid Reza Shokrizadeh,Nina Ghane 1. Department of industrial Management, Payame Noor University, PO BOX 19395-3697 Tehran ,Iran 2. Department of Management, Payame Noor University, PO BOX 19395-3697 Tehran ,Iran 3.Master of Business Management, Ershad university, Iran, Tehran Abstract The signification risks associated with construction projects need special attention from contractors to analyze and mange the risks. Risk management is the art and science of identifying, analyzing and responding to risk factors throughout the life cycle of the project and in the best interest of its objectives. In proposed model, we firstly identify risks in the construction projects and suitable criteria for evaluate risks and then structure the proposed AHP model. Finally we measure the significant risks in construction projects (SRCP) based on the project’s objectives by using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) technique. Keyword: Construction projects, Project Risk Management, Fuzzy AHP 1. Introduction The increasing growth of the construction projects calls for massive development of infrastructures and assets. While this brings opportunities to project stakeholders, employing effective risk management techniques coped risks associated with variable construction activities is of importance to implement the projects aligning with project objectives including time, cost, quality, scope sustainability. Therefore, it is important to identify and assess the significant risks in the construction projects in order to help local companies and international companies who do or plan to work in the construction projects to pay attention to these significant risks. 1.1. Construction Projects Flanagan & Norman [1] expressed that construction projects are one-off endeavors with many unique features such as long period, complicated processes, abominable environment, financial intensity and dynamic organization structures and such organizational and technological complexity generates enormous risks. The number, size and complexity of new projects have created an extra burden on construction participants and resulted in lots of risks. Zhi [2] developed a method of managing various risks for overseas construction projects. In this research he discussed how to effectively identify the vital risks in overseas projects and introduced a useful risk assessment technique which combines risk probability analysis with risk impact assessment. Uher & Toakley [3] set out the results of a study into the use of risk management in the conceptual phase of the construction project development cycle in the Australian construction industry. Their study consisted of a literature review, a survey to examine skill levels and attitudes of key players to risk management, and their attitude to change. They found that while most respondents were familiar with risk management, its application in the conceptual phase was relatively low, even though individuals were willing to embrace change. Carr & Tah [4] presented a paper that uses a fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment and analysis. In this paper, a hierarchical risk breakdown structure is described to represent a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. The relationships between risk factors, risks, and their consequences are represented on case and effect diagrams. Harmon & Stephan [5] stated that complex construction projects are high-risk ventures involving multiple parties with different interests, thus producing a high potential for conflict. Moyst & Das [6] have applied the risk classification of the land-based construction industry to the shipbuilding industry with the aim of determining the factors affecting ship design and construction. Motawa et al.[7] proposed a fuzzy system for evaluating the risk of change in construction projects. Zou et al. [8] stated that a major source of risk in construction is the potential changes occurring during the project lifetime. Changes in construction projects often result from the uncertainty associated with the imprecise and vague knowledge of much project information at the early stages of projects. 1.2. Projects Risk Management Burke [9] argued that project risk management is defined by the project management body of knowledge: ‘the processes concerned with identifying, analyzing, and responding to uncertainty throughout the project life cycle. It includes maximizing the result of positive events and minimizing the consequences of adverse events.’ Perry [10] broke down the process of risk management into: identification of risk sources, assessment of their effects (risk analysis), development of management response to risk, and providing for residual risk in project estimates. Clark et al. [11] suggested that an identified risk is not a risk unless it is a management problem. Flanagan and Norman [1] proposed three ways of classifying risk: by identifying the consequence, type and
  • 2. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.6, No.14, 2014 195 impact of risk. Turner [12] proposed that risk management can be classified into five stages: (i) identifying the source of risk; (ii) determining the impact of individual risks; (iii) assessing the overall impact of risks; (iv) determining if the risk can be reduced; and (iv) controlling the identified risk. Willams [13] described a complete, integrated risk-analysis and management scheme based around the register that assists in time, cost and technical analyses, helps in the devising of a risk-management plan, and prompts decisions on risk transfer. Kangari [14] realized that important risks in construction projects are those relating to safety, quality of work, defects, productivity and competence. Abdou [15] classified construction risks into three groups, i.e. construction finance, construction time and construction design, and addressed these risks in detail in light of the different contractual relationships existing among the functional entities involved in the design, development and construction of a project. UNIDO [16] developed a BOT project risk checklist under two major categories (general/country risks and specific project risks) with three sub-categories under each. Chapman & Ward [17] said ‘project risk is the implications of the existence of significant uncertainty about the level of project performance achievable’. Edwards & Bowen [18] presented a broad classification of land-based construction project risks using natural (weather systems and geological systems) and human (social, political, economic, financial, legal, health, managerial, technical, and cultural) categories. Dey [19] proposed that project risk management processes are categorized : (i) identifying risk factors; (ii) analyzing their effect; and (iii) responding to risk. Wang et al. [20] carried out research to evaluate and manage foreign exchange and revenue risks in China’s BOT projects based on the findings of an international survey on risk management of BOT projects in developing countries. Alquier & Tignol [21] classified the risks into internal and external risks, which are respectively those that are supposed to be under company control (e.g. manufacturer’s risk of products, processes and resources) and those that the company does not control (e.g. regulation, legal context, currency fluctuations, and environmental protection). Raz & Michael [22] showed the results of a study to identify the tools that are most widely used and those that are associated with successful project management in general, and with effective project risk management in particular. Keil et al. [23] investigated the issue of IT project risk from the user perspective and compares it with risk perceptions of project managers. Ward & Chapman [24] in their paper argued that all current project risk management processes induce a restricted focus on the management of project uncertainty. This paper outlines how project risk management processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective. McDowall [25] in his paper presented a scheme for undertaking risk management for laboratory automation projects. Liebreich [26] used Risk management in financing renewable energy projects. Yean et al. [27] identified the risks that Singapore-based architecture, engineering and construction (AEC) firms face when working in India and investigates the risk response techniques adopted by them. Zou et al. [8] found out the key risks in construction projects in China and to develop strategies to manage them. Wyk et al. [28] documented the risk management practice of a utility company for its Recovery Plan project to address the risks of power interruptions due to a shortfall of supply and increasing electricity demand. Lee et al. [29] proposed a scheme for large engineering project risk management using a Bayesian belief network and applies it to the Korean shipbuilding industry. 1.3. AHP The AHP is one of the extensively used multi-criteria decision-making methods. One of the main advantages of this method is the relative ease with which it handles multiple criteria. In addition to this, AHP is easier to understand and it can effectively handle both qualitative and quantitative data. AHP involves the principles of decomposition, pair wise comparisons, and priority vector generation and synthesis. Though the purpose of AHP is to capture the expert’s knowledge, the conventional AHP still cannot reflect the human thinking style. Therefore, fuzzy AHP, a fuzzy extension of AHP, was developed to solve the hierarchical fuzzy problems. There are many fuzzy AHP methods proposed by various authors [30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38]. In this study, we choose Mikhailov’s [36,37] fuzzy prioritization approach because this method has advantages over other fuzzy AHP approaches. The most important of these advantages is the measurement of consistency indexes for the fuzzy pair wise comparison matrixes. It is not possible to determine the consistency ratios of fuzzy pair wise comparison matrixes in other AHP methods without conducting an additional study. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we introduced the proposed model. In Section 3, we
  • 3. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.6, No.14, 2014 196 presented case study . the paper is concluded in Section 4. 2. The Proposed model The suggested model for the measurement of SRCP includes the steps as following: Step 1: Identify the criteria (project objectives) and alternatives (risks) to be used in the model. Step 2: Structure the AHP model. Step 3: Determine the local weights of the criteria and alternatives by using pair wise comparison matrices. The fuzzy scale regarding relative importance to measure the relative weights is given in Fig. 1and Table 1. This scale is proposed by Kahraman et al. [39] and used for solving fuzzy decision-making problems [39, 40] in the literature. This scale will be used in Mikhailov [36,37] fuzzy prioritization approach. Fig. 1. Linguistic scale for relative importance Table1. Linguistic scales for difficulty and importance Linguistic scales for difficulty Linguistic scale for importance Triangular fuzzy scale Triangular fuzzy reciprocal scale Just equal Just equal (1,1,1) (1,1,1) Equally difficult (ED) Equally difficult (ED) (1/2,1,3/2) (2/3,1,2) Weakly more difficult (WMD) Weakly more difficult (WMD) (1,3/2,2) (1/2,2/3,1) Strongly more difficult (SMD) Strongly more difficult (SMD) (3/2,2,5/2) (2/5,1/2,2/3) Very strongly more difficult (VSMD) Very strongly more difficult (VSMD) (2,5/2,3) (1/3,2/5,1/2) Absolutely more difficult (AMD) Absolutely more difficult (AMD) (5/2,3,7/2) (2/7,1/3,2/5) Step 4: Calculate the global weights for the risks. Global risks weights are computed by multiplying local weight of the risks with the local weight of the criteria. Step 5: Measure the risks. Linguistic variables proposed by Cheng et al [41] are used in this step. The membership functions of these linguistic variables are shown in Fig. 2, and the average value related with these variables are shown in Table 2.
  • 4. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.6, No.14, 2014 197 Fig. 2. Membership functions of linguistic values for risks rating Table2.Linguistic values and mean of fuzzy numbers linguistic values for negative alternatives Linguistic values for positive alternatives The mean of fuzzy numbers Very low (VL) Very low (VL) 1 Low (L) Low (L) 0.75 Medium(M) Medium(M) 0.5 High (H) High (H) 0.25 Very high (VH) Very high (VH) 0 Step 6: Calculate the SRCP by using the global risks weights and linguistic values. Depending on the determined values the following decisions are made: • 0.80 SRCP 1.0: The significant risks in construction projects is very good for the period of calculation. • 0.60 SRCP < 0.80: The significant risks in construction projects is good for the period of calculation. • 0.40 SRCP < 0.60: The significant risks in construction projects is moderate for the period of calculation. • 0.0 SRCP < 0.40: The significant risks in construction projects is bad for the period of calculation. 3 .Case study Step1: Step1.1. Identification of risk Recognition process of possible risks in construction projects and determination of their characteristics is an effective step in risk identification. This process is carried out by assistance and cooperation of project group, risk management group and experts of this field out of the organization. By using Brain storming technique, at first 35 events or risks that affect on construction operations, have been recognized. Then by using Delphi method, number of these technical risks was decreased to 5. The finalized risks are presented in Table 3. We consider these risk factors as “alternatives” in proposal AHP model. Table3. Finalized risks of construction projects Final risks Description R1 Economical inflation R2 International relations R3 Design failures R4 Communication matters between consortium members R5 Lack of attention to contract requirements
  • 5. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.6, No.14, 2014 198 Step1.2. Determination of the suitable criteria for ranking risk Like any human undertaking, projects need to be performed and delivered under certain constraints. Traditionally, these constraints have been listed as "scope," "time," and "cost". These are also referred to as the "Project Management Triangle," where each side represents a constraint. One side of the triangle cannot be changed without affecting the others. A further refinement of the constraints separates product "quality" or "performance" from scope, and turns quality into a fourth constraint.(Fig.4) The time constraint refers to the amount of time available to complete a project. The cost constraint refers to the budgeted amount available for the project. The scope constraint refers to what must be done to produce the project's end result. These three constraints are often competing constraints: increased scope typically means increased time and increased cost, a tight time constraint could mean increased costs and reduced scope, and a tight budget could mean increased time and reduced scope. The discipline of Project Management is about providing the tools and techniques that enable the project team (not just the project manager) to organize their work to meet these constraints. We consider these constraints as “criteria” in our proposed AHP model. Fig. 3. Project Management Triangle Step2: The proposed AHP model based on project objectives and risks. Fig.4.The proposed AHP model for measurement of risks Step3: In this step, local weights of the criteria and risks which take part in the second and third levels of AHP model (Fig. 4), are calculated.(Table 4 - 8) Local weights of the risks are calculated by using the fuzzy comparison values presented in Table1 through Saaty & Takizawa [42], Saaty [43] fuzzy prioritization approach. Non-linear model shown below was established for calculating weights and the weights listed in Table5 were calculated by solving this model with LINGO [44] software. Max = C; (1/2) × C × w2 - w1 + w2 <= 0;
  • 6. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.6, No.14, 2014 199 (1/2) × C × w2 + w1 - (2) × w2 <= 0; (1/2) × C × w3 - w1 + w3 <= 0; (1/2) × C × w3 + w1 - (2) × w3 <= 0; (1/2) × C × w4 - w1 + (1/2) × w4 <= 0; (1/2) × C × w4 + w1 - (3/2) × w4 <= 0; (1/2) × C × w5 - w1 + (1/2) × w5 <= 0; (1/2) × C × w5 + w1 - (3/2) × w1 <= 0; (1/6) × C × w4 - w2 + (1/2) × w4 <= 0; (1/3) ×C ×w4 + w2 - w4 <= 0; (1/3) × C × w5 - w2 + (2/3) × w5 <= 0; C × w5 + w2 - 2 × w5 <= 0; w1 + w2 + w3 + w4 + w5 = 1; Thus, for example the weight vector from the above model is calculated as Wcriteria = (0.25, 0.17, 0.17, 0.25, 0.17)T . Consistency index (C) was calculated as 1.0 and this rate suggested that the fuzzy pairwise comparison matrix was consistent. Table 4. Local weights and pair wise comparison matrix of criteria T C Q S Weights Time (T) (1,1,1) (1,3/2,2) (1,3/2,2) (1/2,1,3/2) 0.29 Cost (C) (1,1,1) (1/2,1,3/2) (1,3/2,2) 0.25 Quality (Q) (1,1,1) (1,3/2,2) 0.25 Scope (S) (1,1,1) 0.21 C=0.32 Table 5. Local weights and pair wise comparison matrix of time C=1.0 Table 6.Local weights and pair wise comparison matrix of cost. C=0.35 Table 7. Local weights and pair wise comparison matrix of quality C=0.36 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 Weights R1 (1,1,1) (1,3/2,2) (1,3/2,2) (1/2,1,3/2) (1/2,1,3/2) 0.25 R2 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) (1/2,2/3,1) (2/3,1,2) 0.17 R3 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) (1,1,1) 0.17 R4 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) 0.25 R5 (1,1,1) 0.17 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 Weights R1 (1,1,1) (1/2,1,3/2) (1/2,1,3/2) (1,3/2,2) (1,3/2,2) 0.20 R2 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) (1/2,2/3,1) (2/3,1,2) 0.15 R3 (1,1,1) (2/3,1,2) (2/3,1,2) 0.29 R4 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) 0.17 R5 (1,1,1) 0.17 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 Weights R1 (1,1,1) (1,3/2,2) (3/2,2,5/2) (1/2,1,3/2) (1/2,1,3/2) 0.27 R2 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) (1/2,2/3,1) (2/3,1,2) 0.16 R3 (1,1,1) (1/2,2/3,1) (2/3,1,2) 0.16 R4 (1,1,1) (2/3,1,2) 0.21 R5 (1,1,1) 0.20
  • 7. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.6, No.14, 2014 200 Table 8. Local weights and pair wise comparison matrix of scope C=0.60 Step4: Computed global weights for risks are shown in Table 9. Table 9. Computed global weights for risks Criteria and local weights risks Local weights Global weights T (0.29) R1 0.25 0.07 R2 0.17 0.05 R3 0.17 0.05 R4 0.25 0.07 R5 0.17 0.05 C (0.25) R1 0.20 0.05 R2 0.15 0.04 R3 0.29 0.07 R4 0.17 0.04 R5 0.17 0.04 Q (0.25) R1 0.27 0.07 R2 0.16 0.04 R3 0.16 0.04 R4 0.21 0.05 R5 0.20 0.05 S (0.21) R1 0.30 0.06 R2 0.16 0.03 R3 0.17 0.04 R4 0.20 0.04 R5 0.18 0.04 Step 5-6: Measure the risks and Calculate the SRCP that are shown in Table 10 and 11. Table 10. the Linguistics variables related for each project Final risks Global Weight (gw) Project1 Project2 Project3 Project4 R1 0.25 VL M M L R2 0.16 M VL H VL R3 0.2 VL VL VL M R4 0.2 VL M H M R5 0.18 L L L L Table 11. Computed SRCP with the proposed fuzzy AHP model for each project Final risks Global Weight Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Project 4 Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Project 4 R1 0.25 1 0.5 0.5 0.75 0.25 0.125 0.125 0.1875 R2 0.16 0.5 1 0.25 1 0.08 0.16 0.04 0.16 R3 0.2 1 1 1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 R4 0.2 1 0.5 0.25 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.1 R5 0.18 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.135 SRCP: 0.865 0.72 0.55 0.6825 In this study based on step6 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 Weights R1 (1,1,1) (3/2,2,5/2) (3/2,2,5/2) (1,3/2,2) (1,3/2,2) 0.30 R2 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) (1/2,2/3,1) (2/3,1,2) 0.16 R3 (1,1,1) (2/3,1,2) (2/3,1,2) 0.17 R4 (1,1,1) (1,1,1) 0.20 R5 (1,1,1) 0.18
  • 8. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.6, No.14, 2014 201 The SRCP of project 1 is 0.865 that is between 0.80 and 1.0, so this project is very good. The SRCP of project 2 is 0.72 that is between 0.60 and 0.80, so this project is good. The SRCP of project 3 is 0.55 that is between 0.40 and 0.60, so this project is moderate. The SRCP of project 4 is 0.68 that is between 0.60 and 0.80, so this project is good. 4-Conclusion Managing risks in construction projects has been recognized as a very important process in order to achieve project objectives in terms of time, cost, quality, scope.Decisions are made today in increasingly complex environments. In more and more cases the use of experts in various fields is necessary, different value systems are to be taken into account, etc. In many of such decision-making settings the theory of fuzzy decision making can be of use. Fuzzy group decision making can overcome this difficulty. we firstly identified risks in the construction projects and suitable criteria for evaluate risks and then structured the proposed AHP model. Finally we measured the significant risks in construction projects (SRCP) based on the project’s objectives by using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) technique. 5-References [1] Flanagan R, Norman G.;” Risk management and construction;” Victoria, Australia: Blackwell Science Pty Ltd; 1993. [2] Zhi H.; “Risk management for overseas construction projects”; International Journal of Project Management 13 (4): 231-237 , 1995. [3] Uher T. E., Toakley A. R.; “Risk management in the conceptual phase of a project”; International Journal of Project Management 17(3): 161-169, 1999. [4] Carr V., Tah J. H. M.; “A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment and analysis: construction project risk management system”; Advances in Engineering Software 32( 10-11): 847-857,2001. [5] Harmon K. M. J., Stephan B.M.;” Claims avoidance technique: best practices for contract administration”; AACE Int. Trans. CD11–16, 2001. [6] Moyst H., Das B.;” Factors affecting ship design and construction lead time and cost”; Journal of Ship Production, 21(3): 186–194, 2005. [7] Motawa., I. A., Anumba., C. J., El-Hamalawi., A.; “ A fuzzy system for evaluating the risk of change in construction projects”; Advances in Engineering Software 37: 583–591; 2006. [8] Zou P. X.W., Zhang G., Wang J.; “Understanding the key risks in construction projects in China”; International Journal of Project Management 25 : 601–614;2007. [9] Burke R.;”Project management: planning & control techniques”; 3rded. UK: Wiley; 1999. [10] Perry J. G.;” Risk management — an approach for project managers”; International Journal of Project Management 4 (4): 211-216, 1986. [11] Clark R. C., Pledger M., Needler H. M.;” Risk analysis in the evaluation of non-aerospace projects”; Interdisciplinary Applied-Oriented Journal of Knowledge based System 8(1): 17–24; 1990. [12] Turner JR.;”The handbook of project-base management: improving the processes for achieving strategic objectives”; 1st ed. England: McGraw-Hill; 1993. [13] Willams T. M.;” Using a risk register to integrate risk management in project definition”;International Journal of Project Management 12 (1): 17-22 , 1994. [14] Kangari R.;” Risk management perceptions and trends of US construction”; J Construct Eng Manage 121(4):422–9,1995 [15] Abdou O. A.;”Managing construction risks”; J Archi Eng 2(1):3–10, 1996. [16] UNIDO.;”Guidelines for infrastructure development through build–operate– transfer (BOT) projects”; Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organisation, 1996. [17] Chapman C., Ward S.;”Project risk management: processes, techniques and insights”; 1st ed. England: Wiley, 1997. [18] Edwards P. J., Bowen P. A.;” Risk and risk management in construction: a review and future directions for research”; Engineering Construction and Architectural Management 5(4): 339–349,1998. [19] Dey P.K.;”Process re-engineering for effective implementation of projects”; Int J Project Manag 17(3):147 59, 1999. [20] Wang S.Q., Tiong R. L. K., Ting S. K., Ashley D.;”Evaluation and management of foreign exchange and revenue risks in China’s BOT projects”; Constr Manage Econom 18,197–207, 2000. [21] Alquier A. M., Tignol M. H.;”Project management technique to estimate and manage risk of innovative projects”; In IPMA International Symposium and NORDNET. Stockholm, Sweden, 2001. [22] Raz T., Michael E.;”Use and benefits of tools for project risk management”; International Journal of Project Management 19 , 2001. [23] Keil M., Tiwana A., Bush A.;” Reconciling user and project manager perceptions of IT project risk: a
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