FORECASTS TRENDS SOLUTIONS
The technology world after the
coronavirus

CRISIS
The COVID-19 (coronavirus) epidemic has not reached its
maximum levels in most countries; there is an uncertainty
in what to do and what strategy should organizations and
Individuals undertake to survive.
However, it is clear that the world will change and many things in it
will be different. There will be many who lost, went bankrupt, destitute, but
there will also be the winners, who adapted quicker and predicted the trends.
May you live in
interesting times
- An English expression
It will be a new world: - WORLD

EVERYTHING CHANGED
The crisis appeared suddenly. Even in the beginning of
March, leading analytic agencies made claims about
the rising expenditures on tech, the bets on
digitization, and quantum technology.
However, what came next is a Perfect Storm:
Growing tension in the world (Chinese
trade war, “Brexit”, …)
Slowing of the Chinese economy;
Falling of oil prices;
Coronavirus pandemic;
Not a single country was ready for a crisis at such scale. Economists estimate that it is commensurate
to the Great Depression:
The stop of the world economy (QUARANTINE);
Medical crisis (not enough resources);
Remote work en masse, pressure on online services.
TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS 2020
DIGITIZATION
PRACTICAL AI
SMART CITIES
CYBER SECURITY
INTERNET OF THINGS
DISTRIBUTED REGISTRIES
PRE
CRISIS
The Black Swan Theory

SHOULD YOU START
PANICKING?
PLAN
1 First priority life supporting measures
(relevant to both people and companies)
2
Understanding that the crisis is long-term
and will bring significant change. But it is
not forever; the crisis is not only a
problem, but an opportunity.
3 Securing existing potential to prepare for
the new world – Z World
4
Analyze trends and
adjust the business-
model
Time to act is now
4 Analysis of trends and new business model

HOW STRONG IS THE VIRUS?
9.6%
52.8%
17.4%
34.4%
39.3%
3.5%
Death from
Infections
%
nCov-2019
H7N9
MERS
H1N1
H5N1
SARS
Данные на 08:00
5 апреля 2020
1 225 035
66 503
208
Novel coronavirus
1 568
616
3
New avian influenza flu
2 519
866
27
Middle East respiratory syndrome
related coronavirus
861
455
18
Influenza flu
8 096
774
29
Atypical
pneumonia
Infected
Deceased
Countries with virus
According to data from: Business Insider, WHO,
This is not the virus that affects humanity throughout
the last 20 years. At the same time,
• the virus is highly infectious. The most people that
got infected (over a million) gives the largest
number of deaths in absolute values;
• the pandemic affected a record number of
countries, which leads to breaks in global logistic
chains;
• the virus is spreading in “leaps” through large
cities, which leads to an elongated epidemic that
can last possibly over a year.
Humanity will not die out, but the amount of people
dead and strict quarantine measures will have far
reaching effects on the economy.

THE FLOW OF THE EPIDEMIC
Capabilities of the
healthcare system (number
of beds and ventilators)
Uncontrolled
Spread
Strict Quarantine
Numberofinfected
Time from first infection
Quarantine measures change the infection curve
such that the healthcare system would be capable
of saving the most patients.
• For each large society (city) a typical cycle under
quarantine takes no less than a month or two;
• Because the major world regions / countries
(China, Europe, US) have different culture in
terms of complying with regime and a different
number of big cities – the average curve will blur
out to no less than 3 – 4 months.
The total duration of the pandemic may last for longer than six months for the civilized world;
in fact, the more strict the measures – the longer they will last. In civilized countries, the
epidemic will last longer. Its growth, peak, and decline will create different moods and
expectations. Measures taken should correspond to the relevant period of time.

ESTIMATING TIMELINES
The epidemic period gives birth to phases of coping in businesses and governments. In the first phase (shock) many tend to deny the
crisis1, attempting to keep the normal order of things. Others fall into depression and apathy, without attempting anything. Some are
undertaking energetic measures in an attempt to stabilize their organizations.
Organizations act much like individuals and are led by their leaders.
The next stage is adaptation, throughout which new business-models form. As soon as new business-models start to work, the recovery
begins and key indicators grow.
SHOCK
Best scenario
Likely scenario
Worst scenario
May ‘20
June ’20
July ’20
1 According to the Kübler-Ross model
Each phase has its own associated problems and actions depending on the strategy selected. A successful strategy at the time of
shock does not guarantee survival in the stage of adaptation. When evaluating the potential of actions, you should consider the
specifics of each phase.
ADAPTATION
Best scenario
Likely scenario
Worst scenario
June ‘20
October ’20
December ’20
RECOVERY
Best scenario
Likely scenario
Worst scenario
January ‘21
March ’21
July ’21

SHOCK. HOW LIFE HAS CHANGED.
People are at home and are feeling psychological pressures.
Work is generally not effective even for those who do try to
work: people are expecting cuts, children are running around,
and not everyone has a dedicated work space. The main
consequence is the load bearing down on internet providers,
cloud systems, chats, and videoconferencing systems. School
children and students are transferring to distance education.
Most businesses are on pause. Restaurants, movie theatres, malls are closed.
In many places non-working days have been prolonged until the end of April – the small and medium
business is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.
Existing online
services – news,
movies, etc. are in
high demand.
Distance learning is in
high demand.
Food delivery services
are experiencing a spike.
Significant load on
videoconference
platforms.
- 1 - WORK FROM HOME

SHOCK. HOW LIFE HAS CHANGED.
Buying groceries, going out of home that
necessitates masks, aiding relatives… everything
leads to an increase in demand for delivery
services and reduction of expenditures on non-
essentials (consumer economy).
Most businesses are on pause. Restaurants, movie theatres, malls are closed.
In many places non-working days have been prolonged until the end of April – the small and medium
business is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.
Existing online
services – news,
movies, etc. are in
high demand.
Distance learning is in
high demand.
Food delivery services
are experiencing a spike.
Significant load on
videoconference
platforms.
- 2 – SUPPORT CHANNELS

SHOCK. HOW LIFE HAS CHANGED.
People started to watch more movies over the
internet, read more books, while some began to
learn more and use distance education
Most businesses are on pause. Restaurants, movie theatres, malls are closed.
In many places non-working days have been prolonged until the end of April – the small and medium
business is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.
Existing online
services – news,
movies, etc. are in
high demand.
Distance learning is in
high demand.
Food delivery services
are experiencing a spike.
Significant load on
videoconference
platforms.
- 3 - LEISURE

DIRECT CONSEQUENCES
Businesses are de-facto stopped. Airline companies, tourist agencies, restaurants, and
entertainment complexes are collapsing. Owners of small and mid-sized businesses
are hoping for a miracle and are preparing for closures or layoffs.
Governments are implementing total control, limiting the movement of citizens,
urgently building hospitals, and purchasing supplies to manage the inflow of
purchasers.
Organizations with more than 100 employees are optimizing their expenses and are
transferring to remote work: either having employees take vacation days (to win time),
installing remote access services, developing an office-visit schedule, or laying people off.
Throughout the first month, companies will be making the quintessential preparations for
survival. Only quick measures will be considered, only urgent solutions taken in times of
high uncertainty. Regular procedures, tenders (except insider ones) will all be postponed.

SHOCK. B2B. IMMEDIATE REACTION.
1) Moving employees to remote access: emails, VPN, document management system, installing or buying licenses for
videoconferencing software: Skype, MS Team, Zoom…
2) Preparing layoffs and optimizing financial flows: review of contracts, optimizing rent, etc.
The immediate reaction to the crisis will be to ensure the minimal set of services and actions that will
allow the organization to survive.
3) Working out partnerships with lawyers – supporting current contracts, ensuring continuity in
business and activity.
MAIN OUTCOMES:
A. For IT organizations, long-term contracts or potential investments will be “frozen”. It is
possible that work will be conducted on existing contracts, however, supporting them
requires offering buyers new methods of cooperation;
B. In times of crisis, ready remote office solutions will be in the highest
demand: videoconferences, incident management systems, cloud solutions
(to support end users).

SHOCK. WHEN WILL THIS ALL END?
The timing of the epidemic depends on many factors, including
the time of border closures, quarantine deployment, and
populations of megapolis cities, etc.
A relatively good indicator is the number of deceased, rather
than infected, as COVID-19 tests are not fully reliable and are
affected by levels of self-reporting;
The number of daily deaths is highly dependent on the
quarantine and when it was implemented;
The average time throughout which the daily death rate reaches
its peak is 35 days;
It is forecasted that strict quarantine measures in Western
nations will last until May.

SHOCK. OIL – THE PERFECT STORM.
Falling oil demand due to the economic
downturn from the pandemic.
Trade war between oil producing countries.
The market is close to overstocking – oil
storages are at full capacity.
Pressing the break on the global economy through
quarantine led to an unprecedented decline on demand for
oil. From ~100 to 15-20 mil. barrels / day globally. Depending
on the fall, decline is predicted to reach 3.5 – 6 mil.
At the same time as demand falls, OPEC+ agreement fell apart
at an unfortunate time. Oil producing countries, Saudi Arabia
the first among them, began raising supply volume and offering
significant discounts. By beginning of April, supply rose by 3
mil. barrels / day and may raise even more.
Commercial demand for oil is falling slower
than the physical. Trailers are buying out
cheap oil, filling up warehouses. Freight
tankers (temp storage) rent rose x4.
Purchasing limit will reach the peak by end
of May.
Economy began slowing
even before the crisis,
negatively impacting the
energy market.
Slow market and trade
wars
1) The world – depends on oil
2) The world – depends on oil
3) The world – depends on oil

SHOCK. POPULATION INCOME.
The crisis developed suddenly, many families were unprepared
for the significant fall of income.
Coronavirus 'could cost
global economy $1.1tn in
lost income'
This will coincide with the projected 1.3% fall in global GDP projected in the beginning of
March by Oxford Economics. By the beginning of April, agencies like the Centre for Economics and Business
Research have updated the decline in GDP to constitute above 4.0%.
Countries are undertaking mitigation measures:
13 countries are experimenting with direct payments
Others, like France and Denmark, have subsidized wages Coronavirus sparks support for
Universal Basic Income

DIFFICULT YEAR
Unicorn stock is falling quickly (as in the crisis of 2008). However,
unlike small businesses, they may turn back by the end of year.
It is very likely that after layoffs, businesses will diversify their
assets – primarily through virtualization and financial services.

DIFFICULT YEAR
FALLING OF FTSE 100 ON THE STOCK
MARKET
The quarantine is impacting brands that were among the most successful – including UBER, Square, Expedia.

INFLUENCE ON THE REAL SECTOR
Forecasted index of COVID-19 influence by sector and measures – from
insignificant (1) to extreme (5) in the year 2020.
Initial Impact Felt Throughout the World
Slowing Sector by Sector
  Manufacturing
  Tourism & transport
   Retail
  Energy & Resource
  Hi-Tech & Telecom
  Medicine & Health
   Non-profits
 Media & Entertainment
  Higher Education
   
Banks, Finance,
Insurance
   
Government & Public
Services
0 5 10 15 20 25
Personnel Operations
Supply
Chains Revenue Overall Impact
Influence on the Industry (total score)
FORECASTS BY SECTORS AND COUNTRIES

INFLUENCE ON THE REAL SECTOR
SHORT-TERM INFLUENCE OF THE PANDEMIC ON INDUSTRIES
The ones suffering the most are tourism, airlines, and non-grocery retail networks
Short-term influence in terms of liquidity
Source: Roland Berger
RevenueInfluencein2020
HighLow
High

ADAPTATION
Coronavirus is influencing all sectors, but the pressure will be different depending on a set of factors

ADAPTATION
Some areas of the economy will suffer less than others or will rebound quicker:
• Medicine
• Online services
• Remote access
• Education
• Entertainment (games and
movies).
Analysts agree that these will be
more stable and will show
growth by the end of the year:

ADAPTATION: IT EXPENDITURES
https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19
The high-tech market will experience a decline throughout
2020 as well.
On average, expenses will fall by 4-5%. The pandemic will
negatively impact the technology supply due to supply chain
deterioration.
Relative growth will be experienced only by software
products (though less than that expected before the crisis).
Transferring of employees to remote work will stimulate the
development of the relevant infrastructure.
РАЗЛИЧНЫЕ СЦЕНАРИИ РАСХОДОВ НА IT В 2020

ADAPTATION: PERSPECTIVE
The economy will rebound,
but it will not be like before.
It will be a new virtual
economy.
Distributed Teams
Data Management
Digital Transformation
Client market
Corporate market
• Learning – people will have time
to get new specializations, especially
those fit for working at home;
• Commerce – a new impulse,
especially to replace traditional
shopping;
• P2P market – classifieds to
replace impossible rents and business
crashes;
• Food delivery – will only grow
and get new types of logistics;
• Work – remote work search;
• Entertainment – especially
with VR.
• Corporate learning – new qualifications for new conditions
• Interaction software – virtual office, task management,
video conferences
• Hybrid clouds – with edge computing and mixed access
permissions
• Contacts – digital signature
• Smart cities – with the ability to control populations and security;
with data analytics and digital services
• Crowdfunding – when traditional financing is overly
difficult, a new type of banking formations will grow;
• Telemedicine – reorganizing medicine with new tech;
• Cryptocurrency – when accessing fiat is difficult;
• Logistics – optimizing supply chains in real time;
• Population – big government, real-time tracking
The most potential seems
to like in the strategy D3
S ourc e:Dealroom .c o
Structurally positive changes
Structurally negative changes
Situationally
negative changes
Food delivery
Meal kitsOnline groceries
Cleantech
Ride hailingCar sharing
Travel
Collaboration software
Jobs
Freelance
Restaurant tech
Discretionary
eCommerce
Sharing economy
Biotech
Passion economy
Gig economy
Real estate Fintech
Telecom/
hosting
Frontier tech
Staples eCommerce
Both S tructural and cyclical impact,because
crisis is was alreadyunderway
Will the sharing economy bunce back fullyor
only
p
a
r
t
i
a
l
l
y
?
Online eduction
Passion economy and
freelance could benefit from social distancing in
the long run (more controversial)
Situationally
positive
changes
Streaming video/music
Gaming
Telehealth
STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN IT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CORONAVIRUS

SHOCK. B2B. IMMEDIATE REACTION
Most analytic agencies already began to model the future. The consensus is that it will be different:
Virtual epoch: everything that could be done virtually – will be.
The winners will be those who test and explore the associated
creative possibilities.The future is in digital
commerce
Distributed
teams

WELCOME TO THE FUTURE
Where can a business create the most value?
During the gold rush its a good time to be in the pick and
shovel business - Mark Twain
Forget the old analytics. New trends are emerging that will affect the “hot spots” of 2020 and beyond:
Remote Office
Forget Renting Expenses
P2P replacing small businesses
Delivery channels of key importance
Data informing business decisions
P2P Market Remote HR Solutions Delivery Analytics

THE DAWN OF A NEW DAY
info@dgt.world