From the 2010 Alliance to Save Energy Green Campus Energy Efficiency Summit – Greening the Campus, Building the Workforce

1. Energy Efficiency Policy Trends,
Pinch-Points, and Prospects:
Toto, I’ve a Feeling We’re Not in
California Any More!”
Jeff Harris, VP - Programs

2. Why Is This State Different
From All Other States??

3. Is there a Difference in
California’s Energy Path? Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)
(kWh/person) (2006 to 2008 are forecast data)
14,000
12,000
Electricity per person
United States
United States 2005 Differences
10,000 = 5,300kWh/yr
= $165/capita
8,000
6,000 California
California
4,000
Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $
2,000 1975 2005 % change
US GDP/capita 16,241 31,442 94%
Cal GSP/capita 18,760 33,536 79%
0
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008

4. Why the Difference?
 Climate?
 Supportive Politics?
 Economics?
 Education?  Culture ???

5. Impact of Standards on
Efficiency of 3 Appliances
110 Effective Dates of
= National Standards
100 Effective Dates of
= State Standards
90
Index (1972 = 100)
Gas Furnaces
80 75%
70 60%
60 Central A/C
50 SEER = 13
40 Refrigerators
30 25%
20
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE,
in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org
Source: Art Rosenfeld 5

6. Prices Matter
CA residential electricity rates are 29% higher
than US average (but bills are 29% lower!)
16.0
14.0
12.0
Cents per kWh
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Residential Commercial Industrial ALL
US California

7. Policies, Programs, and
Institutional Relationships
1) Energy Plan and demand forecasts
2) Conservation as a resource
3) Building codes and appliance standards
4) State and utility DSM programs
5) R&D
6) GHG Goals (AB 32)
7) CEC vs(?) CPUC

8. California IOU’s Investment
in Energy Efficiency
Crisis Forecast
$1,000 Performance
$900 Incentives
Profits
Millions of $2002 per Year
$800 decoupled IRP
2% of 2004 Market
from sales
IOU Electric Restructuring
$700
Revenues
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100 Public Goods Charges
$0
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
8

9. Impacts of Utility Programs,
Building Codes, and Standards
50,000
~19% of
45,000 Residential and
Commercial Electricity Use
40,000
in California in 2006
35,000
GWh
30,000
25,000 Utility Programs and Market
Effects
20,000
Title 20
15,000 Appliance Standards
10,000
5,000 Title 24
Building Standards
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

10. The California Effect
(Revisited)
14,000
California w/out stds and
programs
12,000
United States
10,000
kWh/person
8,000
6,000
California
4,000
2,000
0
1978
2000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2002

11. What’s It Like in
Not-California?
 Similar but more thinly scattered (rare to
find most of the pieces)
 Federal funding sets the pace
(“morning-after” ARRA hangovers?)
 “Not-California” often a badge of honor
 Still missing:
- Rates vs bills
- Efficiency as a (real) resource

12. What’s Next? (maybe)
 Smart meters, feedback, and
TOU/CPP/RTP rates
 Building energy rating/disclosure (“labels”)
 “Big Bold” utility programs
 PACE financing (etc.)
 Rethinking EM&V and performance
incentives (?) – DSM, Cap-and-Trade, etc.
 Resurrecting “conservation”?

13. So, Maybe It All Boils
Down to…
“60% of success Maybe the other
is just showing 40% is hanging
up.” in there!
- Woody Allen

14. For Extra Credit, Google:
 “Art Rosenfeld” + “CEC”
www.energy.ca.gov/commissioners/rosenfeld_docs
 “Deconstructing” + “Rosenfeld Curve”
http://www.stanford.edu/group/peec/cgi-
bin/docs/modeling/research/Deconstructing%20the%20
Rosenfeld%20Curve.pdf
 “Roots” + “Energy Efficiency” + “Meier”
http://eec.ucdavis.edu/rootsforum/video/promo.html