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The Future of Road Transport
- 1. The Future of Road Transport Implications of Automated, Connected, Low-Carbon and Shared Mobility A policy perspective Konstantinos Gkoumas Centre de Congrès Pierre Baudis Toulouse, France 11 December 2019 Joint Research Centre The European Commission’s science and knowledge service
- 2. Contribution to EU economy Sectors affected by road transport disruption and their size (GVA, jobs)** ~15% EU GVA ~10% EU Jobs * European Commission. EU Transport in Figures – Statistical Pocketbook 2018. ** JRC elaborations * 2
- 3. Transport complexity Transport systems are «internally complex systems, made up of many elements influencing each other both directly and indirectly, often nonlinearly, and with many feedback cycles»* Transport policies have implications for the economy, land use, environment, quality of life, and social cohesion. In this respect, they have a «bearing on many, often conflicting, interests»* * Cascetta, 2009 3
- 4. Implications of transport complexity Higher energy efficiency * Keramidas et al., 2018 ** Krause et al., 2019 *** Taiebat et al., 2019 • Under current transport evolution trends, alternative fuels and increase in vehicles energy efficiency can reduce CO2 emissions from transport by 50%* or even more** • What’s the effect of increased transport activities? • Overall energy consumption may increase by up to 30%*** 4
- 5. • Technology and user interaction • Real-life environment • Co-creation and Co- design • Cooperation of all actors • Coordination by public authorities • System rather than «selfish» perspective Addressing transport complexity 5
- 6. • A cheaper, more comfortable, more efficient and more flexible road transport will remain the dominant mode in the decades to come Road transport in the future of mobility Is this the future of road transport we have in front of us? 6
- 7. New transport governance • Connectivity and automation open the way to new governance of road transport as they enable a better management of the demand/supply interaction • Publicly orchestrated central platforms may define principles of accessing the road and routing vehicles in order to e.g. • Maintain transport efficiency high • Control energy consumption 7
- 9. Road transport challenges 45-100h in congestion 1-2% EU GDP >25.000 deaths 1 Million injured Principal source of urban pollution with heating and 2nd source of GHG emissions Transport is the only sector with increasing GHG emissions 9
- 11. The future of road transport: Implications of an automated, connected, low-carbon and shared mobility Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/e ur-scientific-and-technical-research- reports/future-road-transport Digital Transformation in Transport, Construction, Energy, Government and Public Administration Available at: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/rep ository/handle/JRC116179 Other Transport related policy inputs available at: https://trimis.ec.europa.eu 11 Constant policy support
- 12. Knowledge management to support R&I TRIMIS https://trimis.ec.europa.eu/ 12 Published December 11 2019
- 14. • Main characteristics: • Fully-fenced 170ha site • ~2.500 staff+visitors • >100 buildings • 37km of internal roads • Special environmental conditions • Advanced scientific infrastructure in transport/energy/communication field • Private car as main mobility option JRC Ispra as living lab for future mobility solutions
- 15. ec.europa.eu/jrc @EU_ScienceHub EU Science Hub - Joint Research Centre Joint Research Centre EU Science Hub Stay in touch! konstantinos.gkoumas@ec.europa.eu 15
Editor's Notes
- Introduce JRC as the European Commission’s “scientific branch” Our role into providing independent scientific evidence to support to policy making.
- Introductory slide which highlight the role of (road) transport to the EU’s economy. Positive trend (linked to the GDP). The transport of goods has been affected by the economic crisis (2008-2009). Sectors affected and their size/jobs. What will happen if a disruption takes place. State of the main sectors affected by connectivity and automation, showing value added (VA), people employed and share of VA in the total EU-28 in 2015 (the latter indicated at the centre of each bubble as %)
- The system comprises transport supply (the physical and organisational elements providing transport opportunities), and transport demand (taking advantage of the opportunities to travel). The maximum volume of people and goods that can be transported represents the transport system’s capacity. The level of service of the different transport opportunities (namely, the different transport infrastructures/modes) depends on the relationship between transport demand and transport capacity. If the capacity increases (which is the usual way to deal with transport inefficiency), the system is able to attract additional demand (internal feedback loop) which, over time, will saturate the system again (a situation referred to as the Braess’ Paradox (Braess, 1968)). If the service level of transport infrastructures remains high for some time, the accessibility of space increases and can affect the location of both households and economic activities. This, in turn, generates additional travel demand which, over a longer time scale, can help to reduce the service level of the transport infrastructure (external feedback loop). For example, this ‘longer-term’ feedback loop explains a significant part of the ‘urban sprawl’ phenomenon: the availability of public transport systems (especially in Europe) and efficient highway systems (particularly in the USA) has enabled people to relocate further from city centres in search of better or more affordable living conditions
- Under current transport evolution trends, a broader diversification in the fuel mix across modes (electrification, biofuels, hydrogen, natural gas, synthetic fuels) as well as technological fuel-efficiency gains and other operational improvements Transport GHG mitigation options from 2015 to 2050, central 2 °C scenario, world, in billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2-eq) Note: ‘Mobility’: greater emissions due to the growth in population and the economy (passenger and freight traffic). ‘Hydrogen’, ‘Biofuels’, ‘Electrification’: emissions prevented by the use of these fuels (emissions from their production accounted elsewhere). ‘Fossil fuels switch’: substitution of oil with natural gas and synthetic methane – includes international aviation and maritime bunkers.
- New technologies, on their own, won't spontaneously make our lives better without upgrading our transport systems and policies. This is necessary due to the complexity of the transport system and its interactions with the other systems of our society (land-use, economy, etc.) New governance models, enabled by communication and automation technologies, can substantially improve the transport system if they are based on the cooperation among all the actors involved, if they focus on the performance of the entire system rather than on the individual user, and if they are coordinated by the public authority to ensure that public benefits are maximized. But this transformation cannot happen overnight because of transport complexity. New governance models need to be tested in complex real-life environments before their wide-scale implementation. Living-Labs, where new systems and technologies are tested with the direct involvement of citizens, can represent powerfult tools to ensure that new policies will actually achieve what they promise. In addition, by involving citizens from the very beginning, Living-Labs can help tailoring the new systems to the needs of their users, with the possibility to achieve quicker and more certain benefits.
- Regarding Governance or lack of, this slide is deliberately provocative. Pass the message that we don’t have infinite capacity. If involved from the beginning people tbc
- A network of European living labs can enable the introduction of new transport opportunities with the direct engagement of citizens to verify their usefulness in achieving the transport improvements they promise. New technologies and mobility solutions can be tested with the engagement of citizens and other stakeholders, allowing them to observe and influence any possible implications.
- Productivity losses from road congestion account for approximately 1-2 % of the EU’s GDP In 2015, on average, commuters spent between 45 (Paris) and 101 (London) hours in congestion accounting for the top 15 most-congested European cities. The EU aims to reduce traffic fatalities by 50 % by 2020 compared to 2010. However, in recent years, EU fatalities have deviated from the target and it would appear that the figures will not be reached The 50 % reduction target corresponds to a fatality rate of less than 3.1 fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants. In 2015, the EU-28 had 5.1 fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants Cities perform better. in 2015, in the EU-28, more than 70 % of emissions from all modes of transport were due to road transport.
- Challenges Today, uncoordinated competition among service providers and a lack of leadership by transport authorities are leading to more traffic problems and unbalanced capacity provision. In addition, the lack of a predictable long-term framework, including standardisation, data governance, interoperability and digital security, may lead to suboptimal investments and create a glut of options in one place and a lack of them in others. On top of that, rapid changes in the transport system can have negative effects far beyond transport itself. For example, such changes influence the demand for and supply of workers and skills, the demand for critical raw materials, etc. Solution:
- The JRC flagship report: horizontal and vertical sections We have identified four major game changers that have started gaining momentum in the last decade and promise to disrupt the century-old mobility concept in the future: automation, connectivity, decarbonisation and sharing. The JRC report on Digital transformation. The chapter on Transport, focuses on enablers and barriers for the future of transport, covering among others in more details technological challenges on communication/connectivity/automation/cybersecurity
- The role of R&I for Europe. Continuous support to The role of knowledge management within the JRC. How to catalyse through knowledge the research and innovation system. One of our recent analysis focuses on the assessment of more than 800 technologies researched in more than 2200 European Framework projects Taxonomy of all technologies researched in EU Framework Programmes. Link to IP (private sector), scientific publications (research). Assessment of the development phase of each technology (from ‘basic’ research to validation, demonstration and implementation). These information help policymakers identify research gaps and opportunities.
- Living lab to support policy making. We have an open call in the JRC ISPRA site for public and private organisations - in particular small and medium-sized enterprises and start-ups that want to test future mobility solutions. Cases that have been preliminary confirmed are automated shuttleapplications for people transport and last-mile delivery by drones.
- In addition, a network of European living labs where new options and governance models can be applied and tested with the direct and proactive engagement of citizens would be a very important step towards ensuring that the solutions adopted can really deliver what they promise.