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Australian Academy of Science, Canberra 4 November 2009   www.triplehelix.com.au
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
1.  CONTEXT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Population & carbon emissions Source:  WBCSD & IUCN 2008;  Harvard Medical School 2008
 
Water ,[object Object],[object Object],*  IWMI 2007
Perth’s Annual Storage Inflow GL (1911-2005)
 
Melbourne’s Annual Storage Inflow GL (1913-2007) In Victoria, last 7 years the driest 7 years since records have been kept. Inflows to Melbourne storages since 1997 35% lower than prior to 1997.
Climate change impact on water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin
Energy & nutrients ,[object Object],[object Object],Australia World
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Oil dependence and decline
Oil production decline (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Oil production decline (3) ,[object Object],[object Object],“ we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day”   Dr Fatih Birol, Chief Economist IEA,  3 August 2009
Source:  Heads in the Sand — Governments ignore the oil supply crisis and threaten the climate . Global Witness, October 2009.
Global food demand ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source:  Dr Megan Clark (CSIRO)  Presentation to the Science & Technology in Society Forum Japan, 6 October 2009
Feeding the world ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
But maybe we ain’t seen nothin yet….
Land & soil ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2008/1000874/index.html
Water, energy, and GDP from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)  Energy  & GDP Water   & GDP Water and energy have historically been closely coupled with GDP in Australia Our challenge now is to radically reduce the energy, carbon and water-intensity of our economy
2. IMPERATIVES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2. IMPERATIVES  (cont) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Climate-water-energy feedbacks from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Murrumbidgee Irrigation  - a current case ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
3.  KNOWLEDGE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Cynefin knowledge framework * ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],* David Snowden & Mary Boone (2007)  “Leader's Framework for Decision Making”  Harvard Business Review
Observations on the current situation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
We need a third agricultural revolution   — what might it look like? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Learning from the Vikings —  biomass energy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
4.  IMPLICATIONS FOR SCIENCE & POLICY ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Policy - putting it all together ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dis-integrated, myopic policy some examples ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Perspectives from the top of the APS (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://www.dpmc.gov.au/media/speech_2009_07_15.cfm
Perspectives from the top of the APS (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://www.treasury.gov.au/contentitem.asp?NavId=008&ContentID=1643
Perspectives from the top of the APS (3) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://www.treasury.gov.au/contentitem.asp?NavId=008&ContentID=1643
Food Policy  - time for new alliances & perspectives ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source:  Tyrchniewicz and McDonald (2007)
The human dimension ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Prime Ministerial Mandate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
An engaged community base is crucial ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
7 point plan for renovating agriculture and natural resources  ( Aust. J. Ag. Science  2/09) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Underpinning principles ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Take home messages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
For more info www.triplehelix.com.au

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Converging insecurities: water, energy, carbon and food

  • 1. Australian Academy of Science, Canberra 4 November 2009 www.triplehelix.com.au
  • 2.
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  • 4. Population & carbon emissions Source: WBCSD & IUCN 2008; Harvard Medical School 2008
  • 5.  
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  • 7. Perth’s Annual Storage Inflow GL (1911-2005)
  • 8.  
  • 9. Melbourne’s Annual Storage Inflow GL (1913-2007) In Victoria, last 7 years the driest 7 years since records have been kept. Inflows to Melbourne storages since 1997 35% lower than prior to 1997.
  • 10. Climate change impact on water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin
  • 11.
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  • 15. Source: Heads in the Sand — Governments ignore the oil supply crisis and threaten the climate . Global Witness, October 2009.
  • 16.
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  • 18.
  • 19. But maybe we ain’t seen nothin yet….
  • 20.
  • 21. Water, energy, and GDP from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007) Energy & GDP Water & GDP Water and energy have historically been closely coupled with GDP in Australia Our challenge now is to radically reduce the energy, carbon and water-intensity of our economy
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  • 44. For more info www.triplehelix.com.au

Editor's Notes

  1. THESE ISSUES ARE NOT UNIQUE TO THE MURRAY DARLING BASIN. PERTH HAS BEEN THE CANARY IN THE COAL MINE FOR DECLINING WATER AVAILABILITY. THIS GRAPH IS SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER ONE FOR THE MDB. IT TRACKS THE INFLOW TO PERTH’S STORAGES SINCE 1911. THE GREEN LINE REPRESENTS THE AVERAGE ANNUAL INFLOW OF 338GL FROM 1911 TO 1974. INCREDIBLY, NOT A SINGLE YEAR SINCE 1974 HAS REACHED THAT PREVIOUS LONG TERM AVERAGE. THE 20 YEARS FROM 1975 TO 1996 SAW AN AVERAGE INFLOW OF 177GL - JUST OVER HALF THE PREVIOUS AVERAGE. JUST AS IN THE MDB, THE CURRENT DROUGHT IS EVEN WORSE AGAIN, WITH THE AVERAGE NOW DROPPING TO AROUND 100GL PER YEAR - LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF WHAT IT WAS FOR MOST OF LAST CENTURY.