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UKRAINE:
reconnecting society
resurrecting democracy
lessons for political consultants
ANDRII	
  KRUGLASHOV	
  	
  
Ph.D.	
  in	
  Political	
  Science	
  
MA	
  in	
  Psychology,	
  
Leader	
  of	
  CHESNO	
  movement	
  	
  
FOR	
  IAPC	
  conference	
  	
  
19/11/2014	
  
Revolution	
  is	
  yet	
  to	
  come!	
  	
  
Government	
  puts	
  
preparation	
  for	
  
Association	
  agreement	
  
“on	
  hold”	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
Yanukovich	
  refuses	
  to	
  
sign	
  Association	
  
Agreement	
  in	
  Vilnius	
  
Революция: Предпосылки и реакции
21	
  nov	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
29	
  ноя	
  
First	
  50	
  people	
  came	
  to	
  
Maidan	
  and	
  have	
  not	
  left.	
  	
  
100000	
  people	
  came	
  3	
  days	
  
after	
  	
  	
  
Protest	
  against	
  abandoning	
  of	
  EU	
  integration	
  
Revolution: Causes and reactions
Protest	
  for	
  the	
  
resignation	
  of	
  the	
  
government	
  
Under	
  the	
  excuse	
  of	
  
putting	
  Christmas	
  tree,	
  
Berkut	
  beats	
  students	
  and	
  
civil	
  activists	
  
Nov.	
  30	
  
Hurt vs heard
500.000	
  +	
  people	
  on	
  the	
  streets	
  next	
  day	
  	
  
Protesters	
  unite	
  
Movements	
  spreads	
  to	
  the	
  regions	
  
First	
  barricades	
  emerge	
  	
  
	
  
Parliament	
  fails	
  to	
  make	
  
government	
  resign	
  
Authorities	
  establish	
  Anti-­‐Maidan	
  
No	
  reaction	
  to	
  the	
  demands	
  of	
  
Maidan	
  
	
  
New	
  Gas	
  treaties	
  with	
  Russia	
  
	
  
	
  
Investigative	
  journalist	
  Tanya	
  
Chornovol	
  beaten	
  nearly	
  to	
  death	
  	
  
Revolution:	
  Causes	
  and	
  reactions	
  
Dec.	
  3	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Dec.	
  17	
  
	
  
Dec.	
  25	
  
December	
  8	
  	
  
-­‐	
  up	
  to	
  a	
  million	
  
protesters	
  march	
  
against	
  the	
  government	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Party	
  of	
  regions	
  faction	
  
demands	
  90%	
  change	
  
of	
  government	
  	
  
	
  
Polls	
  give	
  no	
  chance	
  to	
  
Yanukovich	
  
	
  
Attack	
  on	
  Maidan,	
  	
  
December	
  10,	
  2013	
  
Conflict sides: Supporters of Government
Special	
  forces	
  «Berkut»	
  and	
  internal	
  militia	
  
Protect	
  government	
  
Use	
  shields	
  bats,	
  light-­‐noise	
  grenades	
  
Very	
  cruel,	
  especially	
  to	
  journalists	
  Brake	
  skulls,	
  
shoot	
  eyes	
  out.	
  
	
  
	
  
«Titushki»	
  
Low-­‐class	
  sportsmen	
  and	
  marginalized	
  youth.	
  
Cost	
  25	
  USD	
  daily	
  	
  
	
  
Destroy	
  property,	
  beat	
  people	
  	
  
	
  
Pretend	
  to	
  be	
  a	
  protesters	
  to	
  discredit	
  Maidan.	
  
Sides of conflict: Against regime
EuroMaidan	
  and	
  Self-­‐Defence	
  	
  
People,	
  living	
  in	
  tents	
  on	
  Maidan	
  
Struggle	
  for	
  comeback	
  to	
  EU	
  
integration	
  
Use	
  helmets,	
  later	
  –	
  wooden	
  shields	
  and	
  
cocktails	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
AUTOMAIDAN	
  	
  
Owners	
  of	
  vehicles	
  	
  
Mobile	
  protest	
  
Sociology: What people demand?
Support	
  of	
  the	
  certain	
  demands	
  by	
  the	
  protesters	
  
Совместный	
  опрос	
  DIF	
  и	
  КМИС,	
  	
  7-­‐8	
  декабря	
  
Release of the detained participants
Resignation of the government
Resignation and reelection of the President
Signing of the Association Agreement
Responsibility for violence
Re-election of the Parliament
Criminal prosecution of corrupt officials
Improvement of the level of life
Return to the 2004 Constitution
Release of Tymoshenko
Joint	
  poll	
  of	
  DIF	
  	
  
and	
  KIIS,	
  	
  December	
  7-­‐8	
  	
  
New word in history of
Parliamentarianism
Sick and TIRED
Me	
  with	
  the	
  Russian-­‐speaking	
  Ukrainian	
  nationalists,	
  who	
  
demands	
  “Gang”	
  to	
  go	
  away.	
  	
  
The	
  leading	
  role	
  of	
  faith	
  on	
  
Maidan	
  
	
  
All	
  big	
  confessions,	
  but	
  Orthodox	
  
of	
  Moscow	
  Patriarchy	
  have	
  
supported	
  the	
  Revolution	
  of	
  
Dignity	
  	
  	
  
Churches	
  became	
  a	
  hospitals	
  
for	
  wounded	
  and	
  the	
  last	
  resort	
  
for	
  perished	
  	
  
Sides	
  of	
  conflict:	
  Against	
  regime	
  
Social	
  media	
  
•  Facebook	
  page	
  
«
ЄвроМайдан	
  –	
  
EuroMaydan»	
  (up	
  to	
  
300.000	
  followers)	
  	
  
Statistic:	
  one	
  post	
  –	
  800	
  –	
  
15.000	
  “likes”	
  per	
  	
  15	
  min.	
  in	
  
“hot	
  time”.	
  
	
  
	
  
hromadske.tv,	
  spilno.tv;	
  
Creative	
  graphics	
  	
  
«Страйкплакат»,	
  
«DropInTheOcean»	
  
Classical	
  media	
  	
  
5	
  канал,	
  ТСН	
  /	
  1+1,	
  	
  
	
  
Web	
  1.0	
  media	
  	
  
Украинская	
  правда	
  
	
  
DEFENDING	
  FREEDOM	
  (February	
  19)	
  	
  	
  
“Counter-Terrorist Operation”
HEAVENLY	
  HUNDRED	
  HEROES	
  	
  
The fall of regime
Feb	
  18	
  
	
  
Feb	
  19	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Feb.	
  20	
  
Peaceful	
  march	
  of	
  thousands	
  of	
  people	
  
with	
  the	
  demand	
  to	
  return	
  to	
  the	
  
Constitution	
  of	
  2004	
  	
  
The	
  beginning	
  of	
  “CTO”	
  	
  
Massacre.	
  Several	
  policemen	
  killed	
  
by	
  the	
  same	
  weapons	
  that	
  the	
  
protesters	
  died	
  of	
  	
  
Snipers	
  and	
  “titushkas”	
  use	
  real	
  bullets	
  
against	
  people.	
  	
  
Journalist	
  of	
  the	
  free	
  pro-­‐Kremlin	
  
magazine	
  Vesti	
  was	
  shot	
  in	
  the	
  chest	
  
by	
  “titushki”	
  	
  
US	
  and	
  EU	
  enact	
  sanctions	
  against	
  
Yanukovich	
  and	
  Co	
  
Almost	
  100	
  killed	
  
The	
  Parliament	
  votes	
  for	
  “Stopping	
  
fire”	
  	
  
exile	
  of	
  Yanukovich	
  
•  Stop	
  fire	
  
•  Dismiss	
  Berkut	
  
•  Punish	
  guilty	
  in	
  massacre	
  	
  
	
  
February	
  21:	
  	
  Despite	
  of	
  the	
  desire	
  of	
  opposition,	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  
“hundred’s”	
  chief	
  came	
  to	
  the	
  stage	
  and	
  spoke:	
  	
  
What	
  for	
  we	
  stood?	
  	
  
«Brothers	
  and	
  sisters!	
  I	
  am	
  here	
  as	
  a	
  simple	
  man,	
  same	
  as	
  my	
  
father.	
  Our	
  leaders	
  shook	
  hands	
  with	
  the	
  killer.	
  With	
  the	
  one	
  
who	
  has	
  been	
  killing	
  us.	
  And	
  now	
  they	
  say	
  he	
  is	
  going	
  to	
  rule	
  
us	
  untill	
  December?	
  The	
  killer	
  is	
  gonna	
  rule	
  us	
  10	
  more	
  month?	
  
By	
  no	
  means	
  it	
  can	
  happen!	
  I	
  swear	
  my	
  life,	
  if	
  tomorrow	
  
Yanukovich	
  does	
  not	
  resign	
  ,	
  me	
  and	
  my	
  “hundred”	
  will	
  go	
  to	
  
Presidential	
  administration	
  armed».	
  	
  
Some figures: The price we have paid
More	
  than	
  100	
  days	
  of	
  active	
  resistance	
  
on	
  Maidan	
  	
  
More	
  than	
  100	
  killed	
  in	
  Kyiv	
  
(including	
  11	
  policemen)	
  
Thousands	
  wounded	
  	
  
DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS
THE	
  RESULTS	
  OF	
  PRESIDENTIAL	
  ELECTIONS,	
  MAY	
  26,2014	
  
	
  
	
  
POROSHENKO	
  WINS	
  IN	
  ONE	
  ROUND,	
  	
  
defining	
  vote	
  for	
  him	
  as	
  the	
  vote	
  to	
  stop	
  war	
  
The TRIPLE bottom-line of the revolution
REVOLUTION	
  OF	
  DIGNITY	
  	
  
(1)  Nationally	
  –	
  liberating	
  
(2) Bourgeois'	
  –	
  Anti-­‐neo-­‐
feudal/anti-­‐corruption	
  
(3) Human	
  Rights	
  movement	
  	
  	
  
CHANGE	
  OF	
  ATTITUDES	
  ON	
  THE	
  AXIS	
  OF	
  PRO-­‐EUROPE	
  vs	
  PRO-­‐Soviet/Rus	
  
Follow the money
than – the discourse
Occupied territories
Advocacy initiatives
Aknowledgements
People	
  of	
  Ukraine	
  for	
  making	
  it	
  happen	
  
Ilkka	
  Ahtokivi	
  for	
  honorable	
  invitation	
  
Mari	
  Rusch	
  for	
  diligent	
  organization	
  
All	
  of	
  you	
  for	
  listening	
  and	
  hearing	
  
Vadim	
  Miskiy	
  for	
  the	
  core	
  slides	
  	
  
Veronika	
  Kruglashova	
  for	
  extra	
  slides	
  
	
  
	
  

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Ukraine: reconnecting society, resurrecting democracy. Lessons for Political Consultants

  • 2. ANDRII  KRUGLASHOV     Ph.D.  in  Political  Science   MA  in  Psychology,   Leader  of  CHESNO  movement     FOR  IAPC  conference     19/11/2014  
  • 3. Revolution  is  yet  to  come!    
  • 4. Government  puts   preparation  for   Association  agreement   “on  hold”         Yanukovich  refuses  to   sign  Association   Agreement  in  Vilnius   Революция: Предпосылки и реакции 21  nov             29  ноя   First  50  people  came  to   Maidan  and  have  not  left.     100000  people  came  3  days   after       Protest  against  abandoning  of  EU  integration  
  • 5. Revolution: Causes and reactions Protest  for  the   resignation  of  the   government   Under  the  excuse  of   putting  Christmas  tree,   Berkut  beats  students  and   civil  activists   Nov.  30  
  • 6. Hurt vs heard 500.000  +  people  on  the  streets  next  day     Protesters  unite   Movements  spreads  to  the  regions   First  barricades  emerge      
  • 7. Parliament  fails  to  make   government  resign   Authorities  establish  Anti-­‐Maidan   No  reaction  to  the  demands  of   Maidan     New  Gas  treaties  with  Russia       Investigative  journalist  Tanya   Chornovol  beaten  nearly  to  death     Revolution:  Causes  and  reactions   Dec.  3               Dec.  17     Dec.  25   December  8     -­‐  up  to  a  million   protesters  march   against  the  government         Party  of  regions  faction   demands  90%  change   of  government       Polls  give  no  chance  to   Yanukovich    
  • 8. Attack  on  Maidan,     December  10,  2013  
  • 9. Conflict sides: Supporters of Government Special  forces  «Berkut»  and  internal  militia   Protect  government   Use  shields  bats,  light-­‐noise  grenades   Very  cruel,  especially  to  journalists  Brake  skulls,   shoot  eyes  out.       «Titushki»   Low-­‐class  sportsmen  and  marginalized  youth.   Cost  25  USD  daily       Destroy  property,  beat  people       Pretend  to  be  a  protesters  to  discredit  Maidan.  
  • 10. Sides of conflict: Against regime EuroMaidan  and  Self-­‐Defence     People,  living  in  tents  on  Maidan   Struggle  for  comeback  to  EU   integration   Use  helmets,  later  –  wooden  shields  and   cocktails           AUTOMAIDAN     Owners  of  vehicles     Mobile  protest  
  • 11.
  • 12. Sociology: What people demand? Support  of  the  certain  demands  by  the  protesters   Совместный  опрос  DIF  и  КМИС,    7-­‐8  декабря   Release of the detained participants Resignation of the government Resignation and reelection of the President Signing of the Association Agreement Responsibility for violence Re-election of the Parliament Criminal prosecution of corrupt officials Improvement of the level of life Return to the 2004 Constitution Release of Tymoshenko Joint  poll  of  DIF     and  KIIS,    December  7-­‐8    
  • 13. New word in history of Parliamentarianism
  • 14.
  • 16. Me  with  the  Russian-­‐speaking  Ukrainian  nationalists,  who   demands  “Gang”  to  go  away.    
  • 17.
  • 18. The  leading  role  of  faith  on   Maidan     All  big  confessions,  but  Orthodox   of  Moscow  Patriarchy  have   supported  the  Revolution  of   Dignity       Churches  became  a  hospitals   for  wounded  and  the  last  resort   for  perished    
  • 19. Sides  of  conflict:  Against  regime   Social  media   •  Facebook  page   « ЄвроМайдан  –   EuroMaydan»  (up  to   300.000  followers)     Statistic:  one  post  –  800  –   15.000  “likes”  per    15  min.  in   “hot  time”.       hromadske.tv,  spilno.tv;   Creative  graphics     «Страйкплакат»,   «DropInTheOcean»   Classical  media     5  канал,  ТСН  /  1+1,       Web  1.0  media     Украинская  правда    
  • 20.
  • 24. The fall of regime Feb  18     Feb  19                 Feb.  20   Peaceful  march  of  thousands  of  people   with  the  demand  to  return  to  the   Constitution  of  2004     The  beginning  of  “CTO”     Massacre.  Several  policemen  killed   by  the  same  weapons  that  the   protesters  died  of     Snipers  and  “titushkas”  use  real  bullets   against  people.     Journalist  of  the  free  pro-­‐Kremlin   magazine  Vesti  was  shot  in  the  chest   by  “titushki”     US  and  EU  enact  sanctions  against   Yanukovich  and  Co   Almost  100  killed   The  Parliament  votes  for  “Stopping   fire”    
  • 25. exile  of  Yanukovich   •  Stop  fire   •  Dismiss  Berkut   •  Punish  guilty  in  massacre       February  21:    Despite  of  the  desire  of  opposition,  one  of  the   “hundred’s”  chief  came  to  the  stage  and  spoke:     What  for  we  stood?     «Brothers  and  sisters!  I  am  here  as  a  simple  man,  same  as  my   father.  Our  leaders  shook  hands  with  the  killer.  With  the  one   who  has  been  killing  us.  And  now  they  say  he  is  going  to  rule   us  untill  December?  The  killer  is  gonna  rule  us  10  more  month?   By  no  means  it  can  happen!  I  swear  my  life,  if  tomorrow   Yanukovich  does  not  resign  ,  me  and  my  “hundred”  will  go  to   Presidential  administration  armed».    
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28. Some figures: The price we have paid More  than  100  days  of  active  resistance   on  Maidan     More  than  100  killed  in  Kyiv   (including  11  policemen)   Thousands  wounded    
  • 30. THE  RESULTS  OF  PRESIDENTIAL  ELECTIONS,  MAY  26,2014       POROSHENKO  WINS  IN  ONE  ROUND,     defining  vote  for  him  as  the  vote  to  stop  war  
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. The TRIPLE bottom-line of the revolution REVOLUTION  OF  DIGNITY     (1)  Nationally  –  liberating   (2) Bourgeois'  –  Anti-­‐neo-­‐ feudal/anti-­‐corruption   (3) Human  Rights  movement      
  • 34. CHANGE  OF  ATTITUDES  ON  THE  AXIS  OF  PRO-­‐EUROPE  vs  PRO-­‐Soviet/Rus  
  • 35.
  • 36. Follow the money than – the discourse
  • 39. Aknowledgements People  of  Ukraine  for  making  it  happen   Ilkka  Ahtokivi  for  honorable  invitation   Mari  Rusch  for  diligent  organization   All  of  you  for  listening  and  hearing   Vadim  Miskiy  for  the  core  slides     Veronika  Kruglashova  for  extra  slides