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2QFY2011 Result Update | Banking
                                                                                                                     October 14, 2010



 Axis Bank                                                                                 ACCUMULATE
                                                                                           CMP                                `1,563
 Performance Highlights                                                                    Target Price                       `1,705
  




 Particulars (` cr)     2QFY11      1QFY11        % chg (qoq)     2QFY10    % chg (yoy)    Investment Period             12 Months
 NII                       1,615      1,514                6.7     1,150          40.5
 Pre-Prov Profit                                                                           Stock Info
                           1,486      1,450                2.5     1,306          13.8
 PAT                         735        742               (0.9)      532          38.3     Sector                                 Banking
 Source: Company, Angel Research                                                           Market Cap (` cr)                       63,920
                                                                                           Beta                                       1.1
 Axis Bank has announced its 2QFY2011 results wherein it registered net profit
                                                                                           52 Week High / Low               1,608/889
 growth of 38.3% on a yoy basis to `735cr, which was marginally better than our
                                                                                           Avg. Daily Volume                      244,541
 estimate of `706cr mainly on account of the better-than-estimated other income.
                                                                                           Face Value (`)                             10
 Strong operating performance and stable asset quality were the key positives of
 the result. We maintain an Accumulate recommendation on the stock.                        BSE Sensex                              20,498
                                                                                           Nifty                                    6,177
 Strong operating performance continues: Advances increased by a moderate
                                                                                           Reuters Code                       AXBK.BO
 1.8% sequentially (by a robust 36.5% yoy), while deposits grew by a robust 35.7%
                                                                                           Bloomberg Code                     AXSB@IN
 yoy and 6.4% sequentially, well ahead of the industry growth rate. The advances
 growth was driven by the large and mid-corporate segment (mainly infrastructure,
 IT & ITES, cement and metals), which increased by 59.0% yoy. Consequently, net            Shareholding Pattern (%)
 interest income (NII) recorded 40.5% yoy and 6.7% sequential growth. The daily
                                                                                           Promoters                                 37.5
 average balances of savings deposits grew 40.9% yoy and those of the current
                                                                                           MF / Banks / Indian Fls                   11.9
 account deposits by 35.5% yoy. CASA ratio improved to 41.5% in 2QFY2011
                                                                                           FII / NRIs / OCBs                         46.0
 from 40.2% in 1QFY2011. Reported NIM at 3.68% registered a marginal decline
                                                                                           Indian Public / Others                     4.6
 of 3bp sequentially, largely on account of increase in the cost of funds. The gross
 slippage during the quarter stood at Rs446cr, indicating an annualised slippage
 ratio of 1.7% slightly higher than slippage ratio of 1QFY2011 (1.6%), but lower
                                                                                           Abs. (%)              3m         1yr       3yr
 than FY2010, which was at 2.2%. Gross and net NPA ratios of the bank were
                                                                                           Sensex              14.3     19.0          7.6
 stable at 1.1% and 0.3%, respectively.
                                                                                           Axis Bank           19.0     51.5         92.2
 Outlook and Valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at 2.9x FY2012E ABV.
 We remain positive on the bank and believe that it deserves premium valuations
 owing to its attractive CASA franchise, multiple sources of sustainable fee income,
 strong growth outlook and A-list management. We maintain an Accumulate
 recommendation on the stock, with a Target Price of `1,705, implying an upside
 of 9.1% from current levels.

 Key Financials
     Y/E March (` cr)                FY2009         FY2010        FY2011E     FY2012E
     NII                              3,686          5,004          6,491         8,174
                                                                                          Vaibhav Agrawal
     % chg                              42.6           35.8          29.7          25.9
                                                                                          022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 333
     Net Profit                       1,815          2,515          3,158         4,223   vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
     % chg                              69.5           38.5          25.6          33.7
     NIM (%)                             3.0            3.1           3.3           3.3   Amit Rane
     EPS (Rs)                           50.6           62.1          77.9         104.2   022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 326
                                                                                          amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
     P/E (x)                            30.9           25.2          20.1          15.0
     P/ABV (x)                           5.6            4.0           3.4           2.9
                                                                                          Shrinivas Bhutda
     RoA (%)                             1.4            1.5           1.5           1.6
                                                                                          022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 316
     RoE (%)                            19.1           19.2          18.3          21.1   shrinivas.bhutda@angeltrade.com
 Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                                                                        1
Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update




                   Exhibit 1: 2QFY2011 Performance
                   Particulars (` cr)         2QFY11        1QFY11 % chg (qoq)        2QFY10 % chg (yoy)
                   Interest earned               3,624        3,326          9.0        2,860       26.7
                   Interest expenses             2,009        1,812         10.9        1,711       17.4
                   Net interest income           1,615        1,514          6.7        1,150       40.5
                   Non-interest income           1,033        1,001          3.2        1,066       (3.0)
                   Total income                  2,648        2,515          5.3        2,215       19.5
                   Operating expenses            1,162        1,065          9.2          910       27.8
                   Pre-prov. profit              1,486        1,450          2.5        1,306       13.8
                   Provisions & cont.                379       333          13.7          499      (24.1)
                   PBT                           1,108        1,117         (0.8)         807       37.3
                   Prov. for taxes                   372       375          (0.7)         275       35.3
                   PAT                               735       742          (0.9)         532       38.3
                   EPS (Rs)                          18.0      18.2         (1.2)         13.2      35.9
                   Cost-to-income ratio (%)          43.9      42.3                       41.1
                   Effective tax rate (%)            33.6      33.6                       34.1
                   Net NPA (%)                        0.3       0.4                        0.5
                   Source: Company, Angel Research



                   Exhibit 2: 2QFY2011 Actual v/s Estimates
                   Particulars (` cr)                            Actual             Estimates     Var (%)
                   Net interest income                           1,615                 1,585         1.9
                   Non-interest income                           1,033                   919        12.4
                   Total income                                  2,648                 2,505         5.7
                   Operating expenses                            1,162                 1,117         4.0
                   Pre-prov. profit                              1,486                 1,387         7.1
                   Provisions & cont.                                 379                318        19.2
                   PBT                                           1,108                 1,070         3.6
                   Prov. for taxes                                    372                364         2.4
                   PAT                                             735                   706         4.1
                   Source: Company, Angel Research

                   Advances and Deposits growth above industry

                   Advances increased by a moderate 1.8% sequentially (by a robust 36.5% yoy) to
                   `1,10,593cr, while deposits increased to `1,56,887cr, a robust growth of 35.7%
                   yoy and 6.4% sequentially, well above the industry growth rate. The advances
                   growth was driven by the large and mid-corporate segment (mainly infrastructure,
                   IT and ITES, cement and metals), which increased by ~59.0% yoy. Consequently,
                   the NII of the bank recorded a growth of 40.5% yoy and 6.7% sequentially.

                   The deposit growth was driven by the 11.5% qoq growth in current account
                   balances. The CASA ratio of the bank improved to 41.5% from 40.2% in
                   1QFY2011, but it was lower than 42.8% registered in 2QFY2010. On the positive
                   side, the daily average balances of savings deposits grew 40.9% yoy, while those
                   of the current account deposits grew by 35.5% yoy. Reported NIM at 3.68%,
                   registered a marginal decline of 3bp on account of increase in cost of funds in the
                   system as a whole.


October 14, 2010                                                                                        2
Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update




                   Exhibit 3: CASA proportion continues to remain strong at above 40%
                     (%)                                               CA            SA
                     50

                     40
                                                                                                   24
                                                  22                        24            26
                     30       21                            23                                              24         24
                                        21
                     20

                     10       19                  21                                      20       23
                                        17                  17              19                              17         17

                     -


                              2QFY09



                                        3QFY09



                                                  4QFY09



                                                             1QFY10



                                                                            2QFY10



                                                                                          3QFY10



                                                                                                   4QFY10



                                                                                                            1QFY11



                                                                                                                       2QFY11
                   Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Based on quarter-end numbers




                   Exhibit 4: NIMs remain flattish sequentially
                                           Reported NIMs (%)                         Reported Cost of Funds (%)
                      8.0
                                        6.91
                                                  6.64
                             6.23                           6.09
                      6.0                                                   5.41
                                                                                          4.83              4.61      4.75
                                                                                                   4.54

                      4.0
                                                                                          4.00     4.09
                             3.51                                           3.52                            3.71      3.68
                                                  3.37      3.34
                                        3.12
                      2.0
                               2QFY09



                                         3QFY09



                                                   4QFY09



                                                              1QFY10



                                                                            2QFY10



                                                                                          3QFY10



                                                                                                   4QFY10



                                                                                                            1QFY11



                                                                                                                       2QFY11
                   Source: Company, Angel Research




                   Exhibit 5: Advances break-up (2QFY2011)

                                            SME
                                                              Agri and
                                            15%
                                                            Microfinance
                                                                 8%
                                                                                                                     Auto
                                                                                                                      2%
                                                                            Housing
                                                                             14%
                                                                                                                     Personal
                                                                                                                       2%
                                                                       Retail
                                                                                                                      Others
                                                                        19%
                                                                                                                       1%

                    Large & Mid-
                     Corporates
                        58%


                   Source: Company, Angel Research



October 14, 2010                                                                                                                3
Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update



                   Reasonable non-interest income growth

                   Fee income registered 18% yoy growth to `849cr (`719cr) during 2QFY2011, with
                   strong contribution from the corporate segment. Fee income from large and mid-
                   corporate credit (including infrastructure) grew 54% yoy, followed by capital
                   markets (23% yoy), treasury and debt and capital markets (12% yoy) and retail
                   business (7% yoy). Meanwhile fee income from SME and agricultural lending and
                   business banking declined by 14% yoy and 4% yoy, respectively.

                   The bank generated `108cr (`224cr) of trading profits during 2QFY2011, a
                   decline of 52% yoy.

                   Exhibit 6: Fee income – Corporate and Retail continue their dominance

                                  Corporate                        Treasury                            Agri & SME
                     (Rs cr)
                                  Business banking                 Capital markets                     Retail
                     900


                     600


                     300


                       -
                               2QFY09



                                         3QFY09



                                                     4QFY09



                                                              1QFY10



                                                                          2QFY10



                                                                                     3QFY10



                                                                                              4QFY10



                                                                                                            1QFY11



                                                                                                                     2QFY11
                   Source: Company, Angel Research

                   Asset quality stable

                   The gross slippage during the quarter stood at `446cr, indicating an annualised
                   slippage ratio of 1.7% slightly higher than slippage ratio of 1QFY2011 (1.6%) but
                   lower than that of FY2010, which was at 2.2%. Gross NPAs increased by 1.6%
                   sequentially to `1,362cr, while net NPAs declined marginally on a sequential basis
                   by `4cr to `409cr. The NPA provisions were higher sequentially at `321cr in
                   2QFY2011 v/s `304cr in 1QFY2011. The bank has improved its provision
                   coverage ratio including technical write-offs from 76.6% in 1QFY2011 to 80.2% in
                   2QFY2011. Gross and net NPA ratios of the bank were stable at 1.1% and 0.3%,
                   respectively.

                   The bank restructured loans aggregating `60cr during 2QFY2011 (Rs30cr in
                   1QFY2011). The cumulative restructured assets till 2QFY2011, however declined
                   to `2,061cr (1.7% of gross customer assets) from `2,151cr in 1QFY2011. The
                   bank restructured ~73% in the large and mid corporate credit, and 17% in the
                   SME segment, while the balance was restructured in agriculture and capital
                   markets. A sector-wise analysis by the bank indicates that restructuring of textiles
                   was the highest at 23%, followed by shipping 22%, sugar, petroleum and real
                   estate at 8% each.




October 14, 2010                                                                                                              4
Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update




                                                                           Exhibit 7: Stable NPAs and improving provision coverage
                                                                                              Gross NPA (Rs cr)                               Net NPA (Rs cr)                             NPA coverage (%, RHS)
                                                                                1,600                                                                                                                                        100.0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             80.0
                                                                                1,200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             60.0
                                                                                    800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             40.0
                                                                                    400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             20.0

                                                                                     -                                                                                                                                       -




                                                                                               2QFY09


                                                                                                         3QFY09


                                                                                                                        4QFY09


                                                                                                                                          1QFY10


                                                                                                                                                            2QFY10


                                                                                                                                                                        3QFY10


                                                                                                                                                                                     4QFY10


                                                                                                                                                                                                       1QFY11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2QFY11
                                                                           Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Provision coverage excluding technical write-offs till
                                                                           4QFY2010

                                                                           Operating expenses rise

                                                                           Operating expenses were up by 27.8% yoy, with a cost-to-income ratio of 43.9%
                                                                           (42.3% in 1QFY2011 and 41.1% in 2QFY2010) on account of network expansion
                                                                           and average wage inflation of ~13-14%.

                                                                           During 2QFY2011, the bank added another 53 branches (taking the number of
                                                                           branches opened in 1HFY2011 to 68) and 372 ATMs, taking its network size to
                                                                           1,103 branches and 4,846 ATMs. The bank plans to open about 200-250
                                                                           branches in FY2011E.



Exhibit 8: Cost-to-income ratio to remain high                                                          Exhibit 9: Network expansion at decent pace

       Staff costs            Other opex                   Cost-to-income ratio (RHS)                                                                        Branches                         ATMs (RHS)
   (` cr)                                                                       (%)                        1,200                                                                                                             6,000
 1,400      46                                                                                48
                     45
 1,200                                                                               44       46                  900                                                                                                        4,500
 1,000                                                            42       42                 44
   800                                 41       41       41                                                       600                                                                                                        3,000
                                                                                              42
   600                        39
   400                                                                                        40                  300                                                                                                        1,500
   200                                                                                        38
    -                                                                                         36                   -                                                                                                         -
                                                                                                                                 3QFY09

                                                                                                                                                   4QFY09

                                                                                                                                                              1QFY10

                                                                                                                                                                       2QFY10

                                                                                                                                                                                 3QFY10

                                                                                                                                                                                              4QFY10

                                                                                                                                                                                                           1QFY11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2QFY11
            2QFY09

                     3QFY09

                              4QFY09

                                       1QFY10

                                                2QFY10

                                                         3QFY10

                                                                  4QFY10

                                                                           1QFY11

                                                                                     2QFY11




Source: Company, Angel Research                                                                         Source: Company, Angel Research



                                                                           Strong capital adequacy

                                                                           The bank has a healthy capital adequacy ratio of 13.7%, with tier-I capital of 9.8%
                                                                           at the end of 2QFY2011. The CAR has declined sequentially due to not
                                                                           considering profit during the quarter in tier-I capital as per the RBI guidelines. If the
                                                                           profit for 1HFY2011 was included, then CAR would have been 14.6% with tier-I of
                                                                           10.7%. With leverage (assets/net worth) at 11.3x, the bank is adequately
                                                                           capitalised to grow its advances at 5% above industry growth over FY2010-12.


October 14, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                                     5
Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update




                   Investment Arguments

                   Equity capital increased to support faster market share gains

                   We believe the bank’s strong capital adequacy positions it for market share gains
                   as the GDP and capital market activity continue to revive, with at least 500bp
                   higher growth than industry over FY2010-12. The bank has expanded its network
                   at 35% CAGR since FY2003 till-date, driving a four-fold increase in CASA market
                   share to 4.0% by FY2010 (20bp yoy increase in FY2010). In our view, such gains
                   (30-50bp every year) will continue going forward as well, especially as the network
                   expansion (200+ additions, about 20-25% yoy) remains strong.

                   Fee income continues to drive higher RoEs

                   Fee income contribution across a spectrum of services has been a meaningful
                   1.9% of assets (almost twice the level in PSBs) over FY2008-10. Further, with
                   corporate loan growth picking up and capital markets reviving, fee income growth
                   is also expected to gain traction (30% CAGR over FY2010-12), taking the
                   contribution to 2.0% of assets by FY2012.

                   NPA concerns receding

                   With the improving economic outlook and reducing corporate leverage, NPA
                   concerns are receding. Sequentially, the slippage rate has broadly been declining
                   (down from 2.2% in FY2010 to 1.7% in 2QFY2011). We expect NPA
                   provisions/avg assets to decline to 0.4% by FY2012 from 0.8% in FY2010.




October 14, 2010                                                                                    6
Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update




                   Outlook and Valuation

                   At the CMP, the stock is trading at 2.9x FY2012E ABV. Our Target P/ABV multiple
                   of 3.2x on FY2012 estimates, is at a 20% discount to our Target P/ABV multiple of
                   4.0x for HDFC Bank, keeping in mind the relatively higher credit and market risks.
                   However, we believe that going ahead as Axis Bank establishes a longer and more
                   credible track record of pricing and managing risks, this gap vis-à-vis HDFC Bank
                   could narrow down.

                   We remain positive on the bank and believe that it deserves premium valuations
                   on account of its attractive CASA franchise, multiple sources of sustainable fee
                   income, strong growth outlook and A-list management. We maintain an
                   Accumulate recommendation on the stock, with a Target Price of `1,705, implying
                   an upside of 9.1% from current levels.



                   Exhibit 10: Key Assumptions
                                                                Earlier Estimates             Revised Estimates
                   Particulars (%)
                                                             FY2011E       FY2012E          FY2011E      FY2012E
                   Credit growth                                  26.0         27.0               26.0       27.0
                   Deposit growth                                 28.0         26.0               28.0       26.0
                   CASA ratio                                     46.4         46.2               46.4       46.2
                   NIMs                                              3.3            3.3            3.3        3.3
                   Other income growth                            10.8         27.6               12.4       27.6
                   Growth in staff expenses                       22.9         29.2               22.9       29.2
                   Growth in other expenses                       22.9         29.2               22.9       29.2
                   Slippages                                         1.5            1.0            1.6        1.1
                   Coverage ratio                                 69.4         70.4               70.7       71.8
                   Treasury gain/(loss) (% of investments)           0.3            0.2            0.3        0.2
                   Source: Company, Angel Research




                   Exhibit 11: Change in estimates
                                                           FY2011E                          FY2012E
                   Particulars (` cr)            Earlier      Revised               Earlier   Revised
                                                                           % chg                             % chg
                                              estimates     estimates            estimates estimates
                   NII                            6,491         6,491          -     8,174     8,174                  -
                   Non-interest income           4,179         4,240         1.5          5,333      5,411        1.5
                   Total income                10,671        10,732          0.6      13,507       13,585         0.6
                   Operating expenses            4,561         4,561            -         5,891      5,891            -
                   Pre-prov. profit              6,110         6,171         1.0          7,616      7,695        1.0
                   Provisions & cont.            1,324         1,386         4.7          1,213      1,297        6.9
                   PBT                           4,786         4,785        (0.0)         6,403      6,398    (0.1)
                   Prov. for taxes               1,627         1,627        (0.0)         2,177      2,175    (0.1)
                   PAT                           3,159         3,158        (0.0)         4,226      4,223    (0.1)
                   Source: Company, Angel Research




October 14, 2010                                                                                                  7
Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update




                                                      Exhibit 12: P/ABV Band
                                                                       Price (`)                       0.6x                       1.5x                     2.4x                         3.3x                  4.2x
                                                        2,500

                                                        2,000

                                                        1,500

                                                        1,000

                                                          500

                                                               0
                                                                   Apr-02




                                                                                                                             Oct-05




                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-09
                                                                            Nov-02




                                                                                                       Aug-04




                                                                                                                                                  Dec-06




                                                                                                                                                                               Sep-08


                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov-09
                                                                                     Jun-03
                                                                                              Jan-04




                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-11
                                                                                                                                                           Jul-07
                                                                                                                                        May-06
                                                                                                                    Mar-05




                                                                                                                                                                    Feb-08
                                                      Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research



Exhibit 13: Recommendation summary
                              CMP       Tgt. Price    Upside       FY2012E       FY2012E                               FY2012E                        FY10-12E                          FY2012E              FY2012E
Company      Reco
                                (`)             (`)      (%)       P/ABV (x) Tgt P/ABV (x)                               P/E (x)                 CAGR in EPS (%)                         RoA (%)              RoE (%)
AxisBk       Accumulate      1,563         1,705         9.1            2.9           3.2                                 15.0                             29.6                             1.6                 21.1
FedBk        Neutral           446               -         -                1.3                                 -                     9.3                             32.6                        1.4                14.8
HDFCBk       Neutral         2,420                -        -                3.9                                 -              20.2                                   36.5                        1.7                20.6
ICICIBk     Buy              1,139         1,350       18.5                 2.3                         2.9                    18.4                                   31.0                        1.4                15.5
SIB         Neutral              27              -         -                1.6                                 -                     9.2                             19.1                        1.0                18.3
YesBk       Neutral            350               -         -                2.8                                 -              17.7                                   18.5                        1.3                17.1
BOI         Neutral            553               -         -                1.7                                 -                     8.8                             37.8                        0.9                20.4
CorpBk       Neutral            727               -        -                1.3                                 -                     6.9                             13.8                        1.0                20.5
DenaBk       Accumulate        119            127        6.5                1.0                         1.1                           6.1                                    3.0                  0.7                17.7
IndBk       Neutral            297               -         -                1.4                                 -                     7.1                                    9.0                  1.4                21.5
IOB          Accumulate        162            172        6.6                1.1                         1.2                           8.0                             24.5                        0.7                14.8
OBC         Neutral            495               -         -                1.3                                 -                     7.4                             21.6                        0.9                18.1
PNB          Neutral         1,325               -         -                1.8                                 -                     8.7                             10.6                        1.2                22.3
SBI          Accumulate      3,263         3,556         9.0                2.0                         2.0                    14.3                                   24.0                        1.1                19.2
UcoBk        Neutral           123               -         -                1.2                                 -                     5.3                             12.0                        0.8                24.9
UnionBk     Neutral            395               -         -                1.6                                 -                     7.0                             17.2                        1.1                23.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: P/ABVs of the core banks.




October 14, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                             8
Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update



                   Income statement
                   Y/E March (` cr)         FY06       FY07       FY08     FY09      FY10      FY11E     FY12E
                   Net Interest Income      1,078      1,567     2,585     3,686     5,004      6,491     8,174
                   - YoY Growth (%)          47.5       45.3      65.0      42.6      35.8       29.7      25.9
                   Other Income              730       1,010     1,795     2,834     3,771      4,240     5,411
                   - YoY Growth (%)          75.5       38.4      77.7      57.8      33.1       12.4      27.6
                   Operating Income         1,808      2,577     4,381     6,520     8,776     10,732    13,585
                   - YoY Growth (%)          57.6       42.6      70.0      48.8      34.6       22.3      26.6
                   Operating Expenses        814       1,215     2,155     2,858     3,710      4,561     5,891
                   - YoY Growth (%)          40.0       49.2      77.4      32.6      29.8       22.9      29.2
                   Pre - Provision Profit    994       1,363     2,226     3,662     5,066      6,171     7,695
                   - YoY Growth (%)          75.7       37.1      63.4      64.5      38.3       21.8      24.7
                   Prov. and Cont.           263        366        579      877      1,215      1,386     1,297
                   - YoY Growth (%)         324.0       39.6      58.2      51.3      38.6       14.1      (6.4)
                   Profit Before Tax         731        996      1,646     2,785     3,851      4,785     6,398
                   - YoY Growth (%)          45.2       36.2      65.3      69.2      38.3       24.2      33.7
                   Prov. for Taxation        246        337        575      970      1,337      1,627     2,175
                   - as a % of PBT           33.7       33.8      35.0      34.8      34.7       34.0      34.0
                   PAT                       485        659      1,071     1,815     2,515      3,158     4,223
                   - YoY Growth (%)          45.0       35.9      62.5      69.5      38.5       25.6      33.7




                   Balance sheet
                   Y/E March (` cr)            FY06      FY07       FY08     FY09      FY10     FY11E    FY12E
                   Share Capital                279       282       358       359       405       405      405
                   Reserves & Surplus         2,593      3,112     8,411    9,855    15,639    18,041    21,247
                   Deposits                  40,114 58,786        87,626 117,374 141,300 180,864 227,889
                   - Growth (%)                 26.5      46.5      49.1      33.9      20.4      28.0     26.0
                   Borrowings                 2,681      5,196     5,624   10,185    11,162    14,151    17,719
                   Tier 2 Capital             1,789      3,501     3,429    7,774     8,883    11,192    14,214
                   Other Liab. & Prov.        2,276      2,381     4,130    2,175     3,258     4,379     5,292
                   Total Liabilities         49,731 73,257 109,578 147,722 180,648 229,033 286,766
                   Cash balances              2,429      4,661     7,306    9,419     9,474    12,660    17,092
                   Bank balances              1,212      2,257     5,199    5,598     5,733     7,268     9,100
                   Investments               21,527 26,897        33,705   46,330    55,975    71,183    85,586
                   Advances                  22,314 36,876        59,661   81,557 104,343 131,472 166,970
                   - Growth (%)                 43.0      65.3      61.8      36.7      27.9      26.0     27.0
                   Fixed Assets                 568       673       923     1,073     1,222     1,503     1,826
                   Other Assets               1,680      1,892     2,785    3,745     3,901     4,946     6,193
                   Total Assets              49,731 73,257 109,578 147,722 180,648 229,033 286,766
                   - Growth (%)                 31.8      47.3      49.6      34.8      22.3      26.8     25.2




October 14, 2010                                                                                             9
Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update



                   Key Ratios
                   Y/E March                      FY06    FY07     FY08    FY09    FY10    FY11E    FY12E
                   Profitability ratios (%)
                   NIMs                             2.6     2.7      2.9     3.0     3.1      3.3      3.3
                   Cost to Income ratio            45.0    47.1     49.2    43.8    42.3     42.5     43.4
                   ROA                              1.1     1.1      1.2     1.4     1.5      1.5      1.6
                   ROE                             18.4    21.0     17.6    19.1    19.2     18.3     21.1
                   B/S ratios (%)
                   CASA ratio                      40.0    39.9     45.7    43.1    46.7     46.4     46.2
                   Credit/Deposit ratio            55.6    62.7     68.1    69.5    73.8     72.7     73.3
                   CAR                             11.1    11.6     13.7    12.8    14.7     14.4     13.9
                   - Tier I                         7.3     6.4     10.2     8.7    10.4      8.9      8.3
                   Asset Quality (%)
                   Gross NPAs                       1.7     1.1      0.8     1.1     1.3      1.2      1.2
                   Net NPAs                         1.0     0.7      0.4     0.4     0.4      0.4      0.3
                   Slippages                        1.1     0.8      1.0     1.5     2.2      1.6      1.1
                   Loan loss prov. /avg. assets     0.3     0.1      0.4     0.6     0.8      0.6      0.4
                   Provision coverage              41.8    36.4     49.8    63.6    68.2     70.7     71.8
                   Per Share Data (`)
                   EPS                             17.4    23.4     29.9    50.6    62.1     77.9    104.2
                   ABVPS                           98.6   114.7    241.6   281.6   393.8    453.5    532.8
                   DPS                              3.5     4.5      6.0    10.0    12.0     16.0     21.5
                   Valuation Ratios
                   PER (x)                         89.8    66.8     52.2    30.9    25.2     20.1     15.0
                   P/ABVPS (x)                     15.9    13.6      6.5     5.6     4.0      3.4      2.9
                   Dividend Yield                   0.2     0.3      0.4     0.6     0.8      1.0      1.4
                   Dupont Analysis (%)
                   NII                              2.5     2.5      2.8     2.9     3.0      3.2      3.2
                   (-) Prov. Exp.                   0.6     0.6      0.6     0.7     0.7      0.7      0.5
                   Adj NII                          1.9     2.0      2.2     2.2     2.3      2.5      2.7
                   Treasury                         0.3     0.1      0.2     0.2     0.4      0.1      0.1
                   Int. Sens. Inc.                  2.2     2.1      2.4     2.4     2.7      2.6      2.7
                   Other Inc.                       1.4     1.5      1.7     2.0     1.9      2.0      2.0
                   Op. Inc.                         3.5     3.6      4.2     4.4     4.6      4.6      4.8
                   Opex                             1.9     2.0      2.4     2.2     2.3      2.2      2.3
                   PBT                              1.7     1.6      1.8     2.2     2.3      2.3      2.5
                   Taxes                            0.6     0.5      0.6     0.8     0.8      0.8      0.8
                   RoA                              1.1     1.1      1.2     1.4     1.5      1.5      1.6
                   Leverage (x)                    16.6    19.6     15.0    13.6    12.5     11.9     12.9
                   RoE                             18.4    21.0     17.6    19.1    19.2     18.3     21.1




October 14, 2010                                                                                       10
Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update


  Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800                    E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                    Website: www.angeltrade.com

  DISCLAIMER
  This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
  decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
  such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
  referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
  risks of such an investment.

  Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
  investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
  document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

  Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
  trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
  fundamentals.

  The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
  sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
  document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
  responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
  Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
  nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
  Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
  compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
  This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
  redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

  Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
  other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
  the past.

  Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
  connection with the use of this information.

  Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
  refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
  its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.




  Disclosure of Interest Statement                                               Axis Bank
  1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                 No
  2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                           No
  3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock                No
  4. Broking relationship with company covered                                      No

  Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.



  Ratings (Returns):              Buy (> 15%)                      Accumulate (5% to 15%)                 Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                  Reduce (-5% to 15%)              Sell (< -15%)


October 14, 2010                                                                                                                          11

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Axis bank ru2 qfy2011-141010

  • 1. 2QFY2011 Result Update | Banking October 14, 2010 Axis Bank ACCUMULATE CMP `1,563 Performance Highlights Target Price `1,705   Particulars (` cr) 2QFY11 1QFY11 % chg (qoq) 2QFY10 % chg (yoy) Investment Period 12 Months NII 1,615 1,514 6.7 1,150 40.5 Pre-Prov Profit Stock Info 1,486 1,450 2.5 1,306 13.8 PAT 735 742 (0.9) 532 38.3 Sector Banking Source: Company, Angel Research Market Cap (` cr) 63,920 Beta 1.1 Axis Bank has announced its 2QFY2011 results wherein it registered net profit 52 Week High / Low 1,608/889 growth of 38.3% on a yoy basis to `735cr, which was marginally better than our Avg. Daily Volume 244,541 estimate of `706cr mainly on account of the better-than-estimated other income. Face Value (`) 10 Strong operating performance and stable asset quality were the key positives of the result. We maintain an Accumulate recommendation on the stock. BSE Sensex 20,498 Nifty 6,177 Strong operating performance continues: Advances increased by a moderate Reuters Code AXBK.BO 1.8% sequentially (by a robust 36.5% yoy), while deposits grew by a robust 35.7% Bloomberg Code AXSB@IN yoy and 6.4% sequentially, well ahead of the industry growth rate. The advances growth was driven by the large and mid-corporate segment (mainly infrastructure, IT & ITES, cement and metals), which increased by 59.0% yoy. Consequently, net Shareholding Pattern (%) interest income (NII) recorded 40.5% yoy and 6.7% sequential growth. The daily Promoters 37.5 average balances of savings deposits grew 40.9% yoy and those of the current MF / Banks / Indian Fls 11.9 account deposits by 35.5% yoy. CASA ratio improved to 41.5% in 2QFY2011 FII / NRIs / OCBs 46.0 from 40.2% in 1QFY2011. Reported NIM at 3.68% registered a marginal decline Indian Public / Others 4.6 of 3bp sequentially, largely on account of increase in the cost of funds. The gross slippage during the quarter stood at Rs446cr, indicating an annualised slippage ratio of 1.7% slightly higher than slippage ratio of 1QFY2011 (1.6%), but lower Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr than FY2010, which was at 2.2%. Gross and net NPA ratios of the bank were Sensex 14.3 19.0 7.6 stable at 1.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Axis Bank 19.0 51.5 92.2 Outlook and Valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at 2.9x FY2012E ABV. We remain positive on the bank and believe that it deserves premium valuations owing to its attractive CASA franchise, multiple sources of sustainable fee income, strong growth outlook and A-list management. We maintain an Accumulate recommendation on the stock, with a Target Price of `1,705, implying an upside of 9.1% from current levels. Key Financials Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E NII 3,686 5,004 6,491 8,174 Vaibhav Agrawal % chg 42.6 35.8 29.7 25.9 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 333 Net Profit 1,815 2,515 3,158 4,223 vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com % chg 69.5 38.5 25.6 33.7 NIM (%) 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 Amit Rane EPS (Rs) 50.6 62.1 77.9 104.2 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 326 amitn.rane@angeltrade.com P/E (x) 30.9 25.2 20.1 15.0 P/ABV (x) 5.6 4.0 3.4 2.9 Shrinivas Bhutda RoA (%) 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 316 RoE (%) 19.1 19.2 18.3 21.1 shrinivas.bhutda@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
  • 2. Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 1: 2QFY2011 Performance Particulars (` cr) 2QFY11 1QFY11 % chg (qoq) 2QFY10 % chg (yoy) Interest earned 3,624 3,326 9.0 2,860 26.7 Interest expenses 2,009 1,812 10.9 1,711 17.4 Net interest income 1,615 1,514 6.7 1,150 40.5 Non-interest income 1,033 1,001 3.2 1,066 (3.0) Total income 2,648 2,515 5.3 2,215 19.5 Operating expenses 1,162 1,065 9.2 910 27.8 Pre-prov. profit 1,486 1,450 2.5 1,306 13.8 Provisions & cont. 379 333 13.7 499 (24.1) PBT 1,108 1,117 (0.8) 807 37.3 Prov. for taxes 372 375 (0.7) 275 35.3 PAT 735 742 (0.9) 532 38.3 EPS (Rs) 18.0 18.2 (1.2) 13.2 35.9 Cost-to-income ratio (%) 43.9 42.3 41.1 Effective tax rate (%) 33.6 33.6 34.1 Net NPA (%) 0.3 0.4 0.5 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 2: 2QFY2011 Actual v/s Estimates Particulars (` cr) Actual Estimates Var (%) Net interest income 1,615 1,585 1.9 Non-interest income 1,033 919 12.4 Total income 2,648 2,505 5.7 Operating expenses 1,162 1,117 4.0 Pre-prov. profit 1,486 1,387 7.1 Provisions & cont. 379 318 19.2 PBT 1,108 1,070 3.6 Prov. for taxes 372 364 2.4 PAT 735 706 4.1 Source: Company, Angel Research Advances and Deposits growth above industry Advances increased by a moderate 1.8% sequentially (by a robust 36.5% yoy) to `1,10,593cr, while deposits increased to `1,56,887cr, a robust growth of 35.7% yoy and 6.4% sequentially, well above the industry growth rate. The advances growth was driven by the large and mid-corporate segment (mainly infrastructure, IT and ITES, cement and metals), which increased by ~59.0% yoy. Consequently, the NII of the bank recorded a growth of 40.5% yoy and 6.7% sequentially. The deposit growth was driven by the 11.5% qoq growth in current account balances. The CASA ratio of the bank improved to 41.5% from 40.2% in 1QFY2011, but it was lower than 42.8% registered in 2QFY2010. On the positive side, the daily average balances of savings deposits grew 40.9% yoy, while those of the current account deposits grew by 35.5% yoy. Reported NIM at 3.68%, registered a marginal decline of 3bp on account of increase in cost of funds in the system as a whole. October 14, 2010 2
  • 3. Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 3: CASA proportion continues to remain strong at above 40% (%) CA SA 50 40 24 22 24 26 30 21 23 24 24 21 20 10 19 21 20 23 17 17 19 17 17 - 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Based on quarter-end numbers Exhibit 4: NIMs remain flattish sequentially Reported NIMs (%) Reported Cost of Funds (%) 8.0 6.91 6.64 6.23 6.09 6.0 5.41 4.83 4.61 4.75 4.54 4.0 4.00 4.09 3.51 3.52 3.71 3.68 3.37 3.34 3.12 2.0 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 5: Advances break-up (2QFY2011) SME Agri and 15% Microfinance 8% Auto 2% Housing 14% Personal 2% Retail Others 19% 1% Large & Mid- Corporates 58% Source: Company, Angel Research October 14, 2010 3
  • 4. Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update Reasonable non-interest income growth Fee income registered 18% yoy growth to `849cr (`719cr) during 2QFY2011, with strong contribution from the corporate segment. Fee income from large and mid- corporate credit (including infrastructure) grew 54% yoy, followed by capital markets (23% yoy), treasury and debt and capital markets (12% yoy) and retail business (7% yoy). Meanwhile fee income from SME and agricultural lending and business banking declined by 14% yoy and 4% yoy, respectively. The bank generated `108cr (`224cr) of trading profits during 2QFY2011, a decline of 52% yoy. Exhibit 6: Fee income – Corporate and Retail continue their dominance Corporate Treasury Agri & SME (Rs cr) Business banking Capital markets Retail 900 600 300 - 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 Source: Company, Angel Research Asset quality stable The gross slippage during the quarter stood at `446cr, indicating an annualised slippage ratio of 1.7% slightly higher than slippage ratio of 1QFY2011 (1.6%) but lower than that of FY2010, which was at 2.2%. Gross NPAs increased by 1.6% sequentially to `1,362cr, while net NPAs declined marginally on a sequential basis by `4cr to `409cr. The NPA provisions were higher sequentially at `321cr in 2QFY2011 v/s `304cr in 1QFY2011. The bank has improved its provision coverage ratio including technical write-offs from 76.6% in 1QFY2011 to 80.2% in 2QFY2011. Gross and net NPA ratios of the bank were stable at 1.1% and 0.3%, respectively. The bank restructured loans aggregating `60cr during 2QFY2011 (Rs30cr in 1QFY2011). The cumulative restructured assets till 2QFY2011, however declined to `2,061cr (1.7% of gross customer assets) from `2,151cr in 1QFY2011. The bank restructured ~73% in the large and mid corporate credit, and 17% in the SME segment, while the balance was restructured in agriculture and capital markets. A sector-wise analysis by the bank indicates that restructuring of textiles was the highest at 23%, followed by shipping 22%, sugar, petroleum and real estate at 8% each. October 14, 2010 4
  • 5. Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 7: Stable NPAs and improving provision coverage Gross NPA (Rs cr) Net NPA (Rs cr) NPA coverage (%, RHS) 1,600 100.0 80.0 1,200 60.0 800 40.0 400 20.0 - - 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Provision coverage excluding technical write-offs till 4QFY2010 Operating expenses rise Operating expenses were up by 27.8% yoy, with a cost-to-income ratio of 43.9% (42.3% in 1QFY2011 and 41.1% in 2QFY2010) on account of network expansion and average wage inflation of ~13-14%. During 2QFY2011, the bank added another 53 branches (taking the number of branches opened in 1HFY2011 to 68) and 372 ATMs, taking its network size to 1,103 branches and 4,846 ATMs. The bank plans to open about 200-250 branches in FY2011E. Exhibit 8: Cost-to-income ratio to remain high Exhibit 9: Network expansion at decent pace Staff costs Other opex Cost-to-income ratio (RHS) Branches ATMs (RHS) (` cr) (%) 1,200 6,000 1,400 46 48 45 1,200 44 46 900 4,500 1,000 42 42 44 800 41 41 41 600 3,000 42 600 39 400 40 300 1,500 200 38 - 36 - - 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research Strong capital adequacy The bank has a healthy capital adequacy ratio of 13.7%, with tier-I capital of 9.8% at the end of 2QFY2011. The CAR has declined sequentially due to not considering profit during the quarter in tier-I capital as per the RBI guidelines. If the profit for 1HFY2011 was included, then CAR would have been 14.6% with tier-I of 10.7%. With leverage (assets/net worth) at 11.3x, the bank is adequately capitalised to grow its advances at 5% above industry growth over FY2010-12. October 14, 2010 5
  • 6. Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update Investment Arguments Equity capital increased to support faster market share gains We believe the bank’s strong capital adequacy positions it for market share gains as the GDP and capital market activity continue to revive, with at least 500bp higher growth than industry over FY2010-12. The bank has expanded its network at 35% CAGR since FY2003 till-date, driving a four-fold increase in CASA market share to 4.0% by FY2010 (20bp yoy increase in FY2010). In our view, such gains (30-50bp every year) will continue going forward as well, especially as the network expansion (200+ additions, about 20-25% yoy) remains strong. Fee income continues to drive higher RoEs Fee income contribution across a spectrum of services has been a meaningful 1.9% of assets (almost twice the level in PSBs) over FY2008-10. Further, with corporate loan growth picking up and capital markets reviving, fee income growth is also expected to gain traction (30% CAGR over FY2010-12), taking the contribution to 2.0% of assets by FY2012. NPA concerns receding With the improving economic outlook and reducing corporate leverage, NPA concerns are receding. Sequentially, the slippage rate has broadly been declining (down from 2.2% in FY2010 to 1.7% in 2QFY2011). We expect NPA provisions/avg assets to decline to 0.4% by FY2012 from 0.8% in FY2010. October 14, 2010 6
  • 7. Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update Outlook and Valuation At the CMP, the stock is trading at 2.9x FY2012E ABV. Our Target P/ABV multiple of 3.2x on FY2012 estimates, is at a 20% discount to our Target P/ABV multiple of 4.0x for HDFC Bank, keeping in mind the relatively higher credit and market risks. However, we believe that going ahead as Axis Bank establishes a longer and more credible track record of pricing and managing risks, this gap vis-à-vis HDFC Bank could narrow down. We remain positive on the bank and believe that it deserves premium valuations on account of its attractive CASA franchise, multiple sources of sustainable fee income, strong growth outlook and A-list management. We maintain an Accumulate recommendation on the stock, with a Target Price of `1,705, implying an upside of 9.1% from current levels. Exhibit 10: Key Assumptions Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates Particulars (%) FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E Credit growth 26.0 27.0 26.0 27.0 Deposit growth 28.0 26.0 28.0 26.0 CASA ratio 46.4 46.2 46.4 46.2 NIMs 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Other income growth 10.8 27.6 12.4 27.6 Growth in staff expenses 22.9 29.2 22.9 29.2 Growth in other expenses 22.9 29.2 22.9 29.2 Slippages 1.5 1.0 1.6 1.1 Coverage ratio 69.4 70.4 70.7 71.8 Treasury gain/(loss) (% of investments) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 11: Change in estimates FY2011E FY2012E Particulars (` cr) Earlier Revised Earlier Revised % chg % chg estimates estimates estimates estimates NII 6,491 6,491 - 8,174 8,174 - Non-interest income 4,179 4,240 1.5 5,333 5,411 1.5 Total income 10,671 10,732 0.6 13,507 13,585 0.6 Operating expenses 4,561 4,561 - 5,891 5,891 - Pre-prov. profit 6,110 6,171 1.0 7,616 7,695 1.0 Provisions & cont. 1,324 1,386 4.7 1,213 1,297 6.9 PBT 4,786 4,785 (0.0) 6,403 6,398 (0.1) Prov. for taxes 1,627 1,627 (0.0) 2,177 2,175 (0.1) PAT 3,159 3,158 (0.0) 4,226 4,223 (0.1) Source: Company, Angel Research October 14, 2010 7
  • 8. Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 12: P/ABV Band Price (`) 0.6x 1.5x 2.4x 3.3x 4.2x 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Apr-02 Oct-05 Apr-09 Nov-02 Aug-04 Dec-06 Sep-08 Nov-09 Jun-03 Jan-04 Jun-10 Jan-11 Jul-07 May-06 Mar-05 Feb-08 Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 13: Recommendation summary CMP Tgt. Price Upside FY2012E FY2012E FY2012E FY10-12E FY2012E FY2012E Company Reco (`) (`) (%) P/ABV (x) Tgt P/ABV (x) P/E (x) CAGR in EPS (%) RoA (%) RoE (%) AxisBk Accumulate 1,563 1,705 9.1 2.9 3.2 15.0 29.6 1.6 21.1 FedBk Neutral 446 - - 1.3 - 9.3 32.6 1.4 14.8 HDFCBk Neutral 2,420 - - 3.9 - 20.2 36.5 1.7 20.6 ICICIBk Buy 1,139 1,350 18.5 2.3 2.9 18.4 31.0 1.4 15.5 SIB Neutral 27 - - 1.6 - 9.2 19.1 1.0 18.3 YesBk Neutral 350 - - 2.8 - 17.7 18.5 1.3 17.1 BOI Neutral 553 - - 1.7 - 8.8 37.8 0.9 20.4 CorpBk Neutral 727 - - 1.3 - 6.9 13.8 1.0 20.5 DenaBk Accumulate 119 127 6.5 1.0 1.1 6.1 3.0 0.7 17.7 IndBk Neutral 297 - - 1.4 - 7.1 9.0 1.4 21.5 IOB Accumulate 162 172 6.6 1.1 1.2 8.0 24.5 0.7 14.8 OBC Neutral 495 - - 1.3 - 7.4 21.6 0.9 18.1 PNB Neutral 1,325 - - 1.8 - 8.7 10.6 1.2 22.3 SBI Accumulate 3,263 3,556 9.0 2.0 2.0 14.3 24.0 1.1 19.2 UcoBk Neutral 123 - - 1.2 - 5.3 12.0 0.8 24.9 UnionBk Neutral 395 - - 1.6 - 7.0 17.2 1.1 23.9 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: P/ABVs of the core banks. October 14, 2010 8
  • 9. Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update Income statement Y/E March (` cr) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E Net Interest Income 1,078 1,567 2,585 3,686 5,004 6,491 8,174 - YoY Growth (%) 47.5 45.3 65.0 42.6 35.8 29.7 25.9 Other Income 730 1,010 1,795 2,834 3,771 4,240 5,411 - YoY Growth (%) 75.5 38.4 77.7 57.8 33.1 12.4 27.6 Operating Income 1,808 2,577 4,381 6,520 8,776 10,732 13,585 - YoY Growth (%) 57.6 42.6 70.0 48.8 34.6 22.3 26.6 Operating Expenses 814 1,215 2,155 2,858 3,710 4,561 5,891 - YoY Growth (%) 40.0 49.2 77.4 32.6 29.8 22.9 29.2 Pre - Provision Profit 994 1,363 2,226 3,662 5,066 6,171 7,695 - YoY Growth (%) 75.7 37.1 63.4 64.5 38.3 21.8 24.7 Prov. and Cont. 263 366 579 877 1,215 1,386 1,297 - YoY Growth (%) 324.0 39.6 58.2 51.3 38.6 14.1 (6.4) Profit Before Tax 731 996 1,646 2,785 3,851 4,785 6,398 - YoY Growth (%) 45.2 36.2 65.3 69.2 38.3 24.2 33.7 Prov. for Taxation 246 337 575 970 1,337 1,627 2,175 - as a % of PBT 33.7 33.8 35.0 34.8 34.7 34.0 34.0 PAT 485 659 1,071 1,815 2,515 3,158 4,223 - YoY Growth (%) 45.0 35.9 62.5 69.5 38.5 25.6 33.7 Balance sheet Y/E March (` cr) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E Share Capital 279 282 358 359 405 405 405 Reserves & Surplus 2,593 3,112 8,411 9,855 15,639 18,041 21,247 Deposits 40,114 58,786 87,626 117,374 141,300 180,864 227,889 - Growth (%) 26.5 46.5 49.1 33.9 20.4 28.0 26.0 Borrowings 2,681 5,196 5,624 10,185 11,162 14,151 17,719 Tier 2 Capital 1,789 3,501 3,429 7,774 8,883 11,192 14,214 Other Liab. & Prov. 2,276 2,381 4,130 2,175 3,258 4,379 5,292 Total Liabilities 49,731 73,257 109,578 147,722 180,648 229,033 286,766 Cash balances 2,429 4,661 7,306 9,419 9,474 12,660 17,092 Bank balances 1,212 2,257 5,199 5,598 5,733 7,268 9,100 Investments 21,527 26,897 33,705 46,330 55,975 71,183 85,586 Advances 22,314 36,876 59,661 81,557 104,343 131,472 166,970 - Growth (%) 43.0 65.3 61.8 36.7 27.9 26.0 27.0 Fixed Assets 568 673 923 1,073 1,222 1,503 1,826 Other Assets 1,680 1,892 2,785 3,745 3,901 4,946 6,193 Total Assets 49,731 73,257 109,578 147,722 180,648 229,033 286,766 - Growth (%) 31.8 47.3 49.6 34.8 22.3 26.8 25.2 October 14, 2010 9
  • 10. Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update Key Ratios Y/E March FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E Profitability ratios (%) NIMs 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 Cost to Income ratio 45.0 47.1 49.2 43.8 42.3 42.5 43.4 ROA 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 ROE 18.4 21.0 17.6 19.1 19.2 18.3 21.1 B/S ratios (%) CASA ratio 40.0 39.9 45.7 43.1 46.7 46.4 46.2 Credit/Deposit ratio 55.6 62.7 68.1 69.5 73.8 72.7 73.3 CAR 11.1 11.6 13.7 12.8 14.7 14.4 13.9 - Tier I 7.3 6.4 10.2 8.7 10.4 8.9 8.3 Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs 1.7 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 Net NPAs 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 Slippages 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.2 1.6 1.1 Loan loss prov. /avg. assets 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 Provision coverage 41.8 36.4 49.8 63.6 68.2 70.7 71.8 Per Share Data (`) EPS 17.4 23.4 29.9 50.6 62.1 77.9 104.2 ABVPS 98.6 114.7 241.6 281.6 393.8 453.5 532.8 DPS 3.5 4.5 6.0 10.0 12.0 16.0 21.5 Valuation Ratios PER (x) 89.8 66.8 52.2 30.9 25.2 20.1 15.0 P/ABVPS (x) 15.9 13.6 6.5 5.6 4.0 3.4 2.9 Dividend Yield 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 Dupont Analysis (%) NII 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 (-) Prov. Exp. 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 Adj NII 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 Treasury 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 Int. Sens. Inc. 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.7 Other Inc. 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 Op. Inc. 3.5 3.6 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.8 Opex 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 PBT 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 Taxes 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 RoA 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 Leverage (x) 16.6 19.6 15.0 13.6 12.5 11.9 12.9 RoE 18.4 21.0 17.6 19.1 19.2 18.3 21.1 October 14, 2010 10
  • 11. Axis Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Axis Bank 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) October 14, 2010 11