1. IPO Note | Power
September 21, 2010
Orient Green Power NEUTRAL
Issue Open: September 21, 2010
Unexciting ‘Orient’ation Issue Close: September 23*, 2010
*Note: Closes on Sept 24, 2010 for non-QIB bidders
Orient Green Power (OGPL) is India’s leading renewable energy-based power
Issue Details
generation company focused on developing, owning and operating a diversified
portfolio of renewable energy power plants. OGPL, which currently has an Face Value: Rs10
installed capacity of 213.0MW, has another 836.5MW of prospective capacity Present Eq. Paid up Capital: Rs276.6r
expected to get operational by FY2013.
Offer Size: 16.36cr-19.15cr Shares*
Huge potential for the development of renewable power: India’s renewable Post Eq. Paid up Capital*: Rs440.2cr -
energy-based power capacities have increased their share of total power capacity Rs468.1cr
from 2.0% in FY2003 to around 10.0% in 2010. Despite this, the renewable Issue size (amount): Rs900cr
power sector still has huge potential, which remains untapped. The country’s wind
Price Band: Rs47-55
power capacity stands at 10,890MW although the potential has been estimated at
Promoters holding Pre-Issue: 94.8%
approximately 48,500MW. The government has announced a number of fiscal
incentives and measures such as renewable power obligation and the renewable Promoters holding Post-Issue*: 56.1% - 59.6%
energy certificate mechanisms, which are expected to spur growth of this sector. Note:*at Lower and Upper price band respectively
Leading player in the renewable energy segment and poised for rapid growth:
OGPL plans to increase capacity by more than four-folds to 1,049MW by FY2013 Book Building
and is well poised to capitalise on the untapped potential in the renewable energy
QIBs At least 50%
space. OGPL currently has 405MW of wind power committed projects, and the
infrastructure is in place for majority of the projects. Financial closure has also Non-Institutional At least 15%
been achieved for most of the projects. It may be noted here that the execution Retail At least 35%
risks and project commissioning time are lower for renewable energy projects due
to the lower land requirement and lesser regulatory hassles. Hence, we believe
that OGPL has good revenue visibility going ahead. Post Issue Shareholding Pattern
Lower PLFs to suppress IRRs: OGPL’s wind energy plants currently have a PLF of Promoters Group 56.1%
20-21% (varies according to wind density), which is lower than the normative PLF MF/Banks/Indian
43.9%
FIs/FIIs/Public & Others
of 25% set by the CERC. This would result in the company reporting lower IRRs
than the achievable IRRs if CERC’s prescribed norms are achieved. Moreover, the
company also does not have fuel supply contracts in place along with lower
availability of fuel for the biomass plants, which would result in lower PLF than the
normative standard set by CERC.
Outlook and Valuation
The renewable energy sector is set for healthy growth due to its vast unexplored
potential and supportive government policies. Leader OGPL has also charted out
aggressive expansion plans to capitalise on the emerging opportunities in this
nascent but growing industry.
At the lower and upper price bands OGPL is available at implied P/BV of
1.7x – 1.9x on FY2012E financials, which we believe is fair considering higher
RoE’s of its business and the risks associated with lower PLFs. The IPO is available Rupesh Sankhe
at a premium to its private sector peer Indowind Energy (1.3x FY2012E P/BV), +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 319
which has lesser operational assets at 44MW. For OGPL, the EV/MW works out to Email: rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com
Rs6.3cr and Rs6cr on FY2012E capacity at both ends of the price band, which is
at 10% and 7% premium to its replacement cost, which limits further upside V Srinivasan
considering the return ratios. Hence, we recommend a Neutral view on the IPO. +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 342
Email: v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

2. Orient Green | IPO Note
Company Background
OGPL promoted by Shriram EPC is India’s leading renewable energy-based power
generation company focused on developing, owning and operating a diversified
portfolio of renewable energy power plants. With a total aggregate installed
capacity of 213.0MW, the company is the largest independent operator and
developer of renewable energy power plants in India. OGPL’s operations can be
classified under three business verticals namely, wind energy business, bio-mass
power and other businesses such as small hydro electric plant, mini hydro electric
plant, solar and other renewable sources of power.
The company’s operational projects comprise 172.5MW of wind energy projects
and 40.5MW of biomass projects. OGPL’s portfolio of committed and
development projects includes approximately 836.5MW of prospective capacity,
comprising an estimated 643.0MW of wind energy projects, 178.5MW of biomass
projects and a small hydroelectric project of 15.0MW. OGPL is the second largest
IPP in both wind power generation and biomass-based power generation in India,
with a market share of 8.7%. and 7.1%, respectively.
OGPL has grown its business by acquiring, operating and developing renewable
energy assets of third parties and by developing green-field projects. The
company’s diverse customer base include SEBs, distribution companies, private
commercial and industrial consumers and a power trading company
Exhibit 1: Project Portfolio
Particulars/MW Operating Committed Development Total Gross Capacity Total attributable Capacity
Wind 172.5 405.0 238.0 815.5 798.6
Biomass 40.5 73.5 105.0 219.0 207.6
Mini Hydro 0 0 15.0 15.0 7.7
Total Gross capacity 213.3 478.5 358.0 1049.5 0
Total Attributable capacity* 209.7 464.4 334.7 0 1013.3
Source: RHP; Note: *Attributable capacity is arrived by adjusting for OGPL’s stake in the projects
Industry Overview
Renewable energy principally comprises wind power, hydro power, solar power,
biomass energy and geo-thermal energy. Renewable energy sources have
increasingly become important contributors to the world’s energy supply portfolio
as they provide supply security, reduce dependency on fossil fuel resources, and
provide opportunities for mitigating green-house gases. According to the Energy
Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2009 reference case,
renewable energy will be the fastest growing source of electricity generation,
increasing by around 2.9% annually to grow from 19.0% of the world’s electricity
generation in 2006 to 21.0% in 2030.
Renewable energy-based power capacities registered the highest pace in growth in
the overall capacity additions in India compared to non-renewable sources,
increasing their share of total power capacity from 2.0% in FY2003 to around
10.0% in 2010. Nonetheless, contribution from renewable energy sources towards
overall generation has been low at around 3.0% due to the low plant load factor
(PLF) of renewable capacities.
September 21, 2010 2

3. Orient Green | IPO Note
Wind energy
Wind energy capacity of 10,890MW accounts for 52.0% of the total renewable
capacity of the IPPs. The country’s onshore wind power potential has been
estimated at approximately 48,500MW. There is a growing number IPPs involved
in wind power generation in India, with nearly 15.0% of the total wind power
capacity installed as of March 2009 coming from the IPPs.
Biomass energy
The aggregate installed capacity of biomass-based power in India has increased at
a CAGR of 24.4% during FY2002-09. As of FY2009, the total installed capacity
including co-generation projects and waste-to-energy-based capacity was
1,811MW, of which 1,049MW comprised bagasse-based cogeneration, 703MW
agri-residue with the remaining comprising waste-to-energy. IPPs account for
nearly 75.0% of the total biomass power generation capacity in India.
Small/mini-hydroelectric power
The aggregate installed capacity of small hydropower plants in India increased at
a CAGR of 8.1% over FY2003-09 from 1,519MW to 2,413MW. IPPs account for
nearly 33.0% of the total installed capacity for small hydropower in India. While
India has nearly total potential of 14,000MW for small hydropower, it has
achieved around 18.0% of this potential. A majority of the good small hydropower
sites are in the north and north-eastern regions of India.
IPO Details
OGPL has set a price band of Rs47-55/share for its Rs900cr IPO, which will be
open for subscription during September 21-23, 2010. At the lower and higher end
of the price band, the issue would involve dilution of 40.9% and 37.2% of the
fully-diluted post-issue paid-up capital of the company.
Exhibit 2: Shareholding Pattern
Pre-Issue Post-Issue
No. of shares % No. of shares %
Promoter
Orient Green Power (Pte) Ltd 262,063,624 94.7 262,063,624 56.0
(37.7% held by Shriram EPC)
Shriram EPC Ltd 386,526 0.1 386,526 0.1
Sub-total 262,450,150 94.9 262,450,150 56.1
Others
Shriram Mgt. Cons (Pvt) Ltd 13,500,000 4.9 13,500,000 2.9
Bessemer India Capital Holdings II Ltd 386,526 0.1 386,526 0.1
AEP Investments (Mauritius) Ltd 252,212 0.1 252,212 0.1
Sub-total 14,138,738 5.1 14,138,738 3.0
Issue to Public (At lower price band) - 0.0 191,489,361.7 40.9
Total 276,588,888 100.0 468,078,250 100.0
Source: RHP, Angel Research
September 21, 2010 3

4. Orient Green | IPO Note
Exhibit 3: Objects of the Issue (Rs cr)
Proposed schedule for
Est. Spent till To be spent from net
Particulars deployment of net
Cost date proceeds
proceeds
FY2011 FY2012
Construction and development of four biomass projects 213 31 61 33 28
Construction and development of a biomass and wind project by
1,849 50 530 169 361
subsidiaries
Repayment and prepayment of debt by subsidiaries 148 0 148 148 0
2,210
Source: RHP
September 21, 2010 4

5. Orient Green | IPO Note
Recommendation Rationale
Huge potential for the development of renewable power in India
Renewable energy-based power capacities have registered the highest pace of
growth in the overall capacity additions in India compared to non-renewable
sources, increasing their share of total power capacity from 2.0% in FY2003 to
around 10.0% in 2010. The renewable power sector has huge potential, which still
remains untapped. The key drivers for the renewable energy sector in India
include: (i) The demand-supply gap in the power sector (ii) Regulatory incentives
and the availability of CDM benefits and/or Indian renewable energy certificates
(REC), when fully-implemented by the Indian government, (iii) a large untapped
potential, (iv) environmental concerns regarding the use of fossil fuels, (v) the
desire to strengthen India’s energy security, and (vi) a viable solution for rural
electrification.
Exhibit 4: Renewable energy potential
60,000 60
40,000 40
(MW)
(%)
20,000 20
0 0
Wind Energy Mini-Hydro Biomass
Potential (LHS) Actual (LHS) % of achievement (RHS)
Source: RHP, Angel Research
Wind energy has become an attractive form of renewable energy in India due to its
sizeable untapped potential. Installed capacity of wind power in India has
increased at a CAGR of 30.0% since FY2005 and accounts for 70.0% of the total
renewable energy installed capacity in India. As of October 2009, India’s total
wind power capacity stood at approximately 10,890MW. Karnataka and Gujarat
have the highest wind energy potential at 11,531MW and 10,645MW,
respectively. In terms of the utilising potential, Tamil Nadu leads with 78% gross
potential utilisation and capacity of 4,305MW. According to MNRE’s Annual Report
for 2008-2009, India’s onshore wind power potential is estimated at
approximately 48,500MW. Thus, only 22% of the total potential has been utilised
implying huge scope for development.
September 21, 2010 5

6. Orient Green | IPO Note
Exhibit 5: Wind Energy - Untapped potential (as of FY2009)
State/MW Potential cap. Installed cap. % of gross potential utilised
Karnataka 11,537 1,327 11.5
Gujarat 10,645 1,567 14.7
Andhra Pradesh 8,968 123 1.4
Tamil Nadu 5,530 4,305 77.8
Rajasthan 4,858 738 15.2
Maharashtra 4,584 1,939 42.3
Kerala 1,171 27 2.3
Madhya Pradesh 1,019 213 20.9
Orissa 255 3 1.2
West Bengal - 1 -
Total 48,567 10,243 21.1
Source: RHP, MNRE, Angel Research
As of October 2009, 2,125MW of aggregate installed capacity of biomass power
(including waste-to-energy) existed in India. Bagasse-based generation accounts
for 1,241MW, or approximately 58.0% and non-bagasse biomass-based power
accounts for 817MW, or approximately 38% of total biomass power. The
aggregate installed capacity of biomass-based power in India has increased at a
CAGR of 24.4% during FY2002 to FY2009. Currently, India is estimated to
produce approximately 500 million metric tonnes (mmt) of biomass per year, of
which approximately 120-150mmt is surplus, which can be utilised for power
generation of up to 17,000MW. In addition, there is also approximately 5,000MW
of power generation potential from bagasse-based cogeneration and around
2,700MW from waste-to-energy projects
Exhibit 6: Potential for bagasse-based power in India
1,400 1,250 1,250
1,200
1,000
800
(MW)
600 450 450
350 300 300 300 350
400
200
-
Andhra Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Maharashtra
Tamil Nadu
Punjab
Karnataka
Haryana
Gujarat
Bihar
Source: RHP, Angel Research
Government support: The government has undertaken various measures to
promote renewable energy in India, which would act in favour of the companies in
the space. Renewable energy projects enjoy fiscal incentives such as 80%
accelerated depreciation, duty-free imports, tax holiday and preferential tariffs.
September 21, 2010 6

7. Orient Green | IPO Note
Lead player in renewable energy segment and poised for rapid growth
The company being the largest independent operator and developer of renewable
energy power plants in India is well-poised to capitalise on the untapped potential
in the renewable energy space. In addition to the 213.0MW of current operational
capacity, OGPL has a committed and development portfolio of approximately
836.5MW. The company plans to increase capacity by more than four-folds to
1,049MW by FY2013.
Exhibit 7: Cumulative capacity
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1HFY11E 2HFY11E 1HFY12E 1HFY13E 2HFY13E
Wind Biomass
Source: RHP, Angel Research
A major advantage of the renewable energy projects is the shorter execution time
duration as compared to thermal projects. While the biomass projects can be
commissioned within 15-18 months, the wind energy projects can be executed
over six-seven months. The land requirement is low for these projects, while the
regulatory hassles are also comparatively lower. OGPL currently has 400MW of
wind power committed projects, and the infrastructure is in place for majority of
the projects. Financial closure has also been achieved for most of the projects. As
per management, construction works of the 74MW of biomass projects are at
advanced stages and hence would be commissioned over the next 7-8 months.
Mix of merchant and PPA-based off-take: A majority of the power generated from
the company’s biomass projects is sold to the state electricity boards (SEBs)
pursuant to long-term PPAs, which are generally 20 years in duration, providing
increased revenue visibility and an assured off-take. The company also sells power
from some of its biomass projects to private power consumers at rates higher than
the tariffs under long-term PPA contracts. We expect the company to sell the wind
power under both the PPA and merchant route.
The company is expected to benefit from the enforcement of renewable power
obligations (RPO) set by NAPCC. As per the current norms, 6% of the total power
requirement of the distribution utilities has to be procured from renewable energy
sources, which is programmed to increase to 15% in FY2020.
OGPL is expected to benefit from the proposed renewable energy certificates (REC)
mechanism. Under this mechanism, a REC will be issued by the designated agency
for every 1MWH of power generated from the renewable energy sources and
generated into the grid. The REC’s will be of two categories namely solar and
non-solar. The REC’s can be sold to entities which have RPOs and will be traded at
September 21, 2010 7

8. Orient Green | IPO Note
the power exchanges. The CERC has set a price of Rs1.5-3.9/kwh for trading non-
solar REC and Rs12.0-17.0 for trading solar REC.
Scouting for opportunities abroad: The company has also identified strategic areas
of focus in Europe where the share of renewable energy is low and where the local
governments have enacted incentives for renewable energy. The European Union
(EU) member states in particular have 101 mandates to achieve 20.0% of energy
from renewable sources by 2020 as part of a larger EU initiative. In addition,
some of its target European markets such as the Czech Republic have established
subsidy schemes for improving renewable energy infrastructure. The company with
its experience in developing and operating wind farms in India is expected to have
competitive advantage in gaining leadership position in these markets.
Concerns
Lower PLFs to suppress IRRs: OGPL’s wind energy plants currently have a PLF of
20-21% (varies according to wind density), which is lower than the normative PLF
of 25% set by the CERC. This would result in the company reporting lower IRRs
than the achievable IRRs if CERC’s prescribed norms are achieved. Moreover, the
company also does not have fuel supply contracts in place along with lower
availability of fuel for the biomass plants, which would result in lower PLF than the
normative standard set by CERC.
Poor financial health of SEBs: Renewable energy-based projects depend, to a
great extent, on the SEBs for off-take under RPOs, which is a concern. Most of the
SEB’s suffer due to weak financial health on account of the huge losses incurred by
them due to the distribution of power at subsidised rates.
Uncertainty in fuel availability: Wind power plants generally suffer due to low
PLF’s as the power generation primarily relies on the wind conditions, which vary
across the seasons. OGPL’s wind energy plants currently have a PLF of 20-21%,
which is lower than the normative PLF of 25% set by the CERC. Going ahead, the
company has planned huge capacity addition in wind power, operations of which
could be hit by the changing weather patterns and resultant wind conditions.
Similarly, in case of the biomass plants, the company does not have any long-term
fuel tie-ups and relies on the farmers for sourcing raw materials such as wood, rice
husk, etc. Thus, any shortage in the availability of these raw materials and hike in
their prices would affect the company’s profitability.
September 21, 2010 8

9. Orient Green | IPO Note
Outlook and Valuation
The renewable energy sector is set for healthy growth due to its vast unexplored
potential and supportive government policies. Leader OGPL has charted out
aggressive expansion plans to capitalise on the emerging opportunities in this
nascent but growing industry.
At the lower and upper price bands OGPL is available at an implied P/BV of
1.7x – 1.9x on FY2012E financials, which we believe is fair considering higher
RoE’s of its business and the risks associated with lower PLFs. The IPO is available
at a premium to its private sector peer Indowind Energy (1.3x FY2012E P/BV),
which has lesser operational assets at 44MW. For OGPL, the EV/MW works out to
Rs6.3cr and Rs6cr on FY2012E capacity at both ends of the price band, which is at
10% and 7% premium to its replacement cost, which limits further upside
considering the return ratios. Hence, we recommend a Neutral view on the IPO.
Exhibit 8: Premium/Discount on Asset replacement (FY2012E)
Parameter Higher end Lower end
Installed capacity (MW) 691.3 691.3
Wind Projects (MW) 577.3 577.3
Bio-Mass projects (MW) 114 114
No of shares ( cr) 44.02 46.81
Market Cap (Rs cr) 2,421 2,200
Debt requirements (Rs cr) 2,029.8 2,029.8
Investments, Cash (Rs cr) 69.0 69.0
EV(Rs cr) 4,382.0 4,160.8
EV/MW (x) 6.3 6.0
Blended Replacement cost (Rs cr) 5.6 5.6
Premium to replacement cost (%) 13 7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: Peer comparison (Rs cr)
Mcap EV/MW RoE (%) P/B (x)
FY10 FY10 FY11E FY12E
OGPL 2,200 7.4 (7.6) 1.7* 1.7*
Indowind Energy 239 6.9 10.5 1.5 1.3
Source: RHP, Angel Research, Note: At lower end of the price band
September 21, 2010 9

10. Orient Green | IPO Note
Profit and Loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010
Net Sales 10.4 44.2
Other operating income 1.7 12.1
Total operating income 12.1 56.2
% chg - 364.0
Total Expenditure 16.7 55.5
Net Raw Materials 10.2 27.1
Personnel 1.9 6.0
Admin and Other exp 4.6 22.5
EBITDA (4.5) 0.7
% chg - (114.9)
(% of Net Sales) (43.5) 1.5
Depreciation& Amortisation 1.5 8.6
EBIT (6.1) (7.9)
% chg - 29.9
(% of Net Sales) (58.3) (17.9)
Interest & other Charges 3.2 11.0
Other Income 0.2 7.0
(% of PBT) (1.6) (58.6)
Share in profit of Associates
Recurring PBT (9.1) (12.0)
% chg - 30.8
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - -
PBT (reported) (9.1) (12.0)
Tax (1.2) 0.5
(% of PBT) 13.0 (4.6)
PAT (reported) (8.0) (12.5)
Minority Interest (0.0) (0.3)
PAT after Minority Interest (8.0) (12.2)
ADJ. PAT (8.0) (12.5)
% chg - 57.2
(% of Net Sales) (76.1) (28.3)
Basic EPS (Rs) (1.6) (0.5)
Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) (1.6) (0.5)
% chg - (70.9)
September 21, 2010 10

11. Orient Green | IPO Note
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 51.2 276.6
Preference Capital
Reserves& Surplus 150.9 93.3
Shareholders Funds 202.1 369.9
Minority Interest 1.4 16.3
Total Loans 54.7 419.8
Deferred Tax Liability (1.4) (1.1)
Total Liabilities 256.7 804.8
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 37.0 791.8
Less: Acc. Depreciation 4.0 38.6
Net Block 33.0 753.2
Capital Work-in-Progress 66.8 256.6
Goodwill 3.9 23.7
Investments 0.0 0.0
Current Assets 161.0 134.6
Cash 16.3 31.0
Loans & Advances 132.9 49.1
Other 11.8 54.6
Current liabilities 8.0 363.3
Net Current Assets 153.0 (228.7)
Mis. Exp. not written off - -
Total Assets 256.7 804.8
September 21, 2010 11

12. Orient Green | IPO Note
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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September 21, 2010 12

13. Orient Green | IPO Note
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Tel: (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800
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Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com
Meenakshi Chavan Dealer meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com
Gaurang Tisani Dealer gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com
Production Team:
Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com
Simran Kaur Research Editor simran.kaur@angeltrade.com
Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angeltrade.com
Dilip Patel Production dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com
Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
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