3. An Age of Uncertainty ‘ Italy relies on external resources and the life of the Roman people is tossed daily on the uncertainties of sea and storm’ TACITUS
4. Predicting the Future “ There are many methods for predicting the future. For example, you can read horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards, or crystal balls. Collectively, these methods are known as “nutty methods”. Or you can put well-researched facts into sophisticated computer models, morecommonly referred to as “a complete waste of time”.
12. CONNECTIVITY INFORMATION and COMPLEXITY 1.5 billion Mobile phones 1.2 billion web users 108 million web sites 100 million blogs 6 billion people 9 billion people More Connectivity = More Complexity
28. More Media, More Traditional Channels * Before digital radio and podcasting, Not counting blogs, face book and myspace pages 1960 2003 * Radio Stations 4400 13,500 Magazine Titles 8,400 17,300 Channels per home 5.7 82.4
30. 200,000,000 blogs 1.5 million residents >100,000,000 videos (65,000/day) www.ebay.com 21 Nov 2006 14,463,346 auctions Almost 4,000,000 articles (10 languages) 33,347,000 profiles 60 million members More New Channels
39. More Importantly, We have less Trust 76% of consumers don’t trust brands (Yankelovich) 80% of US shoppers place more trust in brands that offer ratings and reviews than those that don’t 75% of shoppers stated that it was extremely or very important to read customer reviews. Peer reviews are preferred over expert reviews by a 6 to 1 margin. Source: FutureLab
40.
41. Blind Faith Collectivism Command Reasoned Faith Elective Collectivism Contract People are saying: “I can no longer rely on a single source of information. The omniscient, all-powerfull source – whether a news anchor, doctor, CEO or government official – is gone. Edelman Trust Barometer, 2006 While institutional trust is eroding Source: FutureLab
42. THERE IS STILL ONE TRUSTED MEDIUM LEFT IN THE WORLD MY FRIENDS – THEIR FRIENDS – AND ALL THOSE WE COLLECTIVELY RESPECT So Whom Do we Trust? Source: FutureLab
43. A person like yourself or a peer Edelman Trust Barometer 2006 When forming an opinion of a company, how credible would the information be from … People Trust People Source: FutureLab % Academic 62 Doctor or similar 62 Person like yourself/peer 61 Financial Analyst 58 NGO Rep 58 Accountant 53 Lawyer 36 Regular employee 33 CEO 29 Union 19 Entertainer 17 PR person 16 Blogger 15
44. This is not a “new hype” just an ignored reality Source: FutureLab 1955 Word-of-Mouth (WOM) is 7x more effective than newspaper advertising, 5x stronger than a personal sales pitch and 2x as effective as radio advertising 1967 36% of surveyed consumers reported learning of an innovation through word-of-mouth, while 48% reported being influenced by WOM when making a purchase decision 2001 Diffusion studies found that WOM is 10x more effective than media advertising 2006 61% trust other people like themselves (as media) - Edelman Trust Barometer, 2006
45. Good Experience I tell 4 people Anonymous Case: UK Consumer Electronics Bad Experience I tell 18 people Average Sale £ 230 WOM - It Works! Source: FutureLab Top 3 Purchase Influencers % In-store Sales Associate 49 In-store demonstration 36 Word-of-mouth from family & friends 33 Newspaper Coupons 25 Internet 21 Product/Company Information 16 Retailer information 14 Other 14 Magazines 4 TV 4 Radio 3
49. 1. Open Source Technology Interoperability – software that talked Mix ‘n Match software From “web services” to widgets DestiCorp Paper – “Why web services will turn the industry on its head and why that’s a good thing!” 2002 Everyone can become an Intermediary
56. Semi-amateurs start to “play for real” NEWS MEDIA BBC Newlsline Ticker 19,550 /million CNN 18,600 New York Times 8,740 Drudge Report 4,210 Washington Post 3,755 Reuters Online 3,680 Guardian Unlimited 2,985 Al Jazeera 2,925 Wall Street Journal 1,995 Le Monde 990 The Huffington Post 959 The Economist 740 Daily Kos (State of theNation) 722 Crooks&Liars (John Amato) 525 Xu Jing Lei 56,750/million 1,000-4,000 comments per article Blogs vs. Mainstream News Media : Early days, yet traffic is growing Every Citizen is a Reporter
57. 3. Power Shift We’ve talked about this for years Not done much to truly treat customer as king Technology now enables a change in approach
Because there is still one trusted medium left in the world … and that medium … is ME
In communication terms, this trust in fellow humans leads us to word of mouth, which is still the major form of communication. For half a century we have recognised WOM as an important marketing vehicle, yet have never really needed to focus on it as traditional advertising means tended to work.
Now you don’t want to go off and finance to than take the money you saved and say thank you. The whole point of the exercise is re-allocation to where things make more money for the brand.
Now you don’t want to go off and finance to than take the money you saved and say thank you. The whole point of the exercise is re-allocation to where things make more money for the brand.