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Architecting for Resilience and Sustainability

Looking at what is and is not "smart" to do , if we want our organizations and our world to be sustainable.

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Architecting for Resilience and Sustainability

  1. 1. Architecting For Resilience and Sustainability Stuart Boardman Edinburgh 20 November 2015 Stuart.Boardman@KPN.com Ed.Harrington@Conexiam.com
  2. 2. CONTEXT Propositions and definitions
  3. 3. What do we mean by…. Sustainability • Wikipedia: “…the capacity of a system to endure and remain functional and productive over time” • Merriam Webster: “….method of harvesting or using a resource so that the resource is not depleted or permanently damaged • Oxford: Able to be maintained at a certain rate or level” Resilience • BS65000(2014) Organisational -"ability of an organization to anticipate, prepare for, and respond and adapt to incremental change and sudden disruptions in order to survive and prosper” • Wikipedia: Ecological. “the capacity of an ecosystem to respond to a perturbation or disturbance by resisting damage and recovering quickly” Taleb • Antifragile
  4. 4. Sustainability, Resilience and Us The case for sustainability is the same for organizations as for the planet. Resilience is a property of a sustainable system. It requires us to understand how the system works.
  5. 5. Humans and Technology We create the biggest problems by trying to control everything. When something goes wrong we are totally unprepared. We make it worse by using technology to execute our stupid rules.
  7. 7. Some Stories Predictable but not predicted • Things that could have been smart but weren’t: • Emergency generator that wouldn’t switch off • The car that thought it was broken • The smart home that wasn’t (ZDNet – the night Alexa) Black swans • Burst main causes hospital evacuation causes traffic chaos What’s the problem? No systems thinking.
  8. 8. My Citroen The problem • In the Ardennes, going uphill, almost horizontal driving rain • Engine cuts out – warning message incomprehensible – some sensor says I have big problems • Towed to garage The Solution • motor mechanic rubs moustache knowingly • drills a hole in something next to the engine, says “it’ll be OK now” • “should I get it fixed properly when I get home?” • “no – leave it alone” The explanation • A casing round the sensor, placed to protect it, became filled with water. No one had thought of that. Sensor thinks “I’m wet, better switch the engine off”
  9. 9. The Hospital Generator Mains power outage in area around hospital • Power management system signals emergency generator to switch on • Generator switches on Mains power returns • Power management system refuses to switch back to mains power Explanation • Generator hadn’t returned handshake to management system, so it wasn’t “on” • So the system couldn’t revert • Simple design error but typical – assumes everything will work “normally” - leads to counter-productive action
  10. 10. Systemic Thinking Central organizational principle is relationship and process – not structure and rules Everything is part of something Everything has an outside (environment) with which it is in varying degrees (co)dependent
  11. 11. ECOSYSTEM FALLOUT All about Stuart’s car
  12. 12. 666 Now I drive a VW diesel I selected it because of the low emissions Now my dealer is spamming me with mails about their sustainability policy
  13. 13. Affected Ecosystems Wolfsburg Almost 50% of the population work directly for VW Local Council budget depends on company taxation
  14. 14. Affected Ecosystems The state of Lower Saxony Shareholder in VW Factories in 3 other cities
  15. 15. Affected Ecosystems The automobile industry Shares down everywhere The German automobile industry The German economy
  16. 16. Affected Ecosystems The Netherlands Tax breaks for low CO2 - Standard 20% - Diesel (low) 14% - Hybrid 7% - Electric 4% (except above EUR60K) Tesla just opened a second factory in Tilburg
  17. 17. Affected Ecosystems Our world Can regulatory control succeed? Are we consumers or citizens? Are we solving problems with the thinking that created them? If we go fossil free what happens to oil based economies? How will shareholders react?
  18. 18. The Automobile Ecosystem • New high-end cars are among the most sophisticated machines on the planet, containing 100 million or more lines of code • More and more recalled cars – good thing or bad one? – In July, Ford said that it would recall 432,000 Focus, C-Max and Escape vehicles because of a software bug that could keep the cars’ engines running even after drivers tried to shut them off Source: New York Times 27/09/2015 Get me out of here!
  19. 19. SMART PEOPLE & STUPID PEOPLE More ways of getting it wrong
  20. 20. A story about complexity in which ancient wisdom beats “modern” meddling Along rivers in Bali, small groups of farmers meet regularly in water temples to manage their irrigation systems. They have done so for a thousand years. Over the centuries, water temple networks have expanded to manage the ecology of rice terraces at the scale of whole watersheds. Although each group focuses on its own problems, a global solution nonetheless emerges that optimizes irrigation flows for everyone. Did someone have to design Bali's water temple networks, or could they have emerged from a self-organizing process?
  21. 21. MAKING PEOPLE SMARTER Understanding your ecosystem
  22. 22. Building Smarter Models When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the universe. – John Muir To understand any complex, adaptive system, we must look outside its limits All models are wrong But some models are useful. – Jerry Ravetz
  23. 23. Static Models What we have done for us What we do (and how that works) (And what we know about that) What they have done for them (that’s relevant for us) And how it might affect us What else affects their business That we ought to keep an eye on Economy Resources Policy Innovation Environment Stakeholders Customers Employees Investors Society http://blog.opengroup.org/2014/12/30/the-onion-from-the-inside-out/
  24. 24. Dynamic Models – Causal Loops Source: Pallab Saha https://www2.opengroup.org/ogsys/catalog/D128
  25. 25. Interacting Loops Source: Pallab Saha https://www2.opengroup.org/ogsys/catalog/D128
  26. 26. Dealing With Uncertainty Checklists Presentation: relation to problem and to audience Which stakeholders are critical & are they sufficiently involved? What things are uncertain, to what extent and how much do they matter? How good is our knowledge base? How (well) is the problem framed? http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/PBL_2013_Guidance -for-uncertainty-assessment-and-communication_712.pdf Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  27. 27. Operational Models Agent-Based Modeling shows how ancient wisdom works. An agent-based model (ABM) is one of a class of computational models for simulating the actions and interactions of autonomous agents (both individual or collective entities such as organizations or groups) with a view to assessing their effects on the system as a whole. Agent-based models are a kind of microscale model that simulate the simultaneous operations and interactions of multiple agents in an attempt to re-create and predict the appearance of complex phenomena. The process is one of emergence from the lower (micro) level of systems to a higher (macro) level. As such, a key notion is that simple behavioral rules generate complex behavior. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agent-based_model
  28. 28. Smart Things & Smart People • Let things do what they’re good at – Machines calculate and react faster – People think wider, less predictably, bring experience and emergence • Continuous exchange of information between people and machines – The mechanic and Citroen and my car • IoT, Data Science, Cognitive Computing – and the shop floor
  29. 29. Theories/Frameworks/Insights • Systemic thinking and sensemaking – Beer & Ashby • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viable_system_model • http://www.esrad.org.uk/resources/vsmg_3/screen.php?page=home • http://www.fractal-consulting.com/VSM-Intro-Fractal.pdf • http://talesoftheenterprise.com/2013/06/mr-ashbys-bright-idea/ – Funtowicz/Ravetz Post-normal Science http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-normal_science Graves - Service Oriented Enterprise & SCAN • http://weblog.tetradian.com/2014/10/29/services-and-ecanvas-review-summary/ • http://weblog.tetradian.com/2013/06/07/a-simpler-scan/ • http://weblog.tetradian.com/2015/01/29/toolsets-for-associative-modelling/ – Hodgson, Ison in Learning for Sustainability (ed Wals, Corcoran) – Heuristics/common sense : BMC, TOGAF – Via negativia – Taleb in Antifragile
  30. 30. Sustainable Architecture: a Profile http://www.ruthmalan.com/Journal/2014/2014JournalJanuary.htm#Agility_Integrity_Sustain ability @ruthmalan
  31. 31. @ArtBourbon Stuart@stuartboardman.com www.talesoftheenterprise.com THANKS