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William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 1
Economic Outlook
William Strauss
Senior Economist
and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Aurora Regional Chamber of Commerce
Aurora, IL
February 1, 2012
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 2
The “Great Recession” ended in June 2009,
but the economy expanded by just 1.6% over the past year
6
8
10
Real gross domestic product
percent
Quarterly change(saar)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Quarterly change(saar)
Percent changefrom a year earlier
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 3
1.0
2.0
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index
3-month average is just below zero
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Monthly
Three monthaverage
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 4
2,500
3,000
Liabilities of the Federal Reserve
Billions of dollars
The liabilities side of the Fed’s balance sheet
shows large amount of excess reserves
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Treasury Balance
Currency inCirculation
2007 2008 2009 2010
DepositsofDepository Institutions
2011
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 5
80
100
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
net percentage of domestic respondents tightening commercial and industrial loan standards
Lending standards for commercial and industrial loans
had begun to loosen
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
medium and large firms
Small firms
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 6
50
60
70
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
net percentage ofdomestic respondentstightening credit card and other consumer loan standards
Lending standards for credit cards and
other consumer loans have also begun to loosen
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1996 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
other consumerloans
credit cards
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 7
60
80
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
net percentage of domestic respondents tightening mortgage loan standards
Lending standards for mortgage loans remain relatively tight
-20
0
20
40
60
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 8
Personal savings rate has recently moved lower
12
14
16
Personal savings as a percent of disposable personal income
percent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1960 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 9
Existing home prices fell by over 30%
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
Median sales price - existing single family home
3-monthsmoothed
$90,000
$110,000
$130,000
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 10
1,200
1,400
1,600
S&P 500 stock index
Index: 1941-43 = 10
The stock market has improved since March 2009,
but remains well below previous levels
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 11
23
24
25
Consumer credit as a percentage of disposable income
percent
Consumer credit as a share of disposable income
appears to be ticking higher
after moving lower over the past several years
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 12
6
8
10
Real gross domestic product
percent
Quarterly change(saar)
Blue Chip GDP Forecast
Actual Forecast
2011 2012 2013
GDP is forecast to grow near trend in 2012
and slightly above trend in 2013
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Quarterly change(saar)
Percent changefrom a year earlier
Q4-2011
1.6 2.4 2.8
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 13
116
118
120
122
Business cycle recovery path
index- business cycle trough = 100
1981-82
The forecast path of the current recovery is relatively muted
compared with past deep recession recovery cycles
average annualized growth: 5.4%
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
2008-09
Blue Chip forecast recovery path
1974-75
quarters beforetrough quartersafter trough
average annualized growth: 5.3%
average annualized growth: 2.4%
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 14
2.4
2
3
Contributions to real GDP growth during the current recovery
percentage points (annual rate)
The recovery has been led by the
consumer and business sectors
1.5
0.6
0.0
0.8
-0.2 -0.2
-1
0
1
2
GDP Consumption Business
Fixed
Investment
Residential
Investment
Change in
Inventories
Government Net Exports
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 15
The FOMC participants see real GDP improving over time
4
5
6
Real gross domestic product
percent change from a year earlier
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
FOMC
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 16
Employment fell by over 8.7 million jobs
between December 2007 and February 2010,
but it began to rise beginning in March 2010
and added 1.64 million jobs during 2011
2
3
4
Total employment
percent
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Quarterly change(saar)
Percent changefrom a year earlier
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 17
9
10
11
Unemployment rate
percent
After peaking in October 2009,
the unemployment rate has fallen by
1.5 percentage points
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 18
10
12
Unemployment rate
percent
Unemployment rate
percent
Q4-2011
Blue Chip Forecast
The unemployment rate is forecast to tick lower
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 19
The FOMC participants expect the
unemployment rate to gradually fall
9
10
11
Unemployment rate
percent
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
FOMC
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 20
12
14
16
MI
Unemployment rate
percent
Unemployment rates have been moving
lower in many states in the Midwest -
however, Illinois’ unemployment rate has
increased by 0.6 percentage points over the past year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
US
IL
IN
IA
WI
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 21
5
6
Personal consumption expenditure - chain price index
percent change from a year earlier
Inflation has risen
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 22
120
140
Real West Texas Intermediate oil price
dollars per barrel. 2011 dollars
In large part due to the movement of oil prices.
However, adjusted for inflation,
current oil prices are below
the levels that existed thirty years ago
0
20
40
60
80
100
1970 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 23
12
14
16
Real natural gas price
dollars per mmbtu(2011 dollars)
Natural gas prices remain low
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1994 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 24
Expenditures on energy are
just below the historical average
9
10
Energy goods and services expenditures as a share of
total consumptionpercent
9
10
Energy goods and services expenditures as a share of
total consumptionpercent
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
60s 70s
80s
90s 00s
1960-2010
10s
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 25
4
5
Personal consumption expenditure - less food and energy -
chain price indexpercent change from a year earlier
Removing the volatile food and energy
components from the PCE,
“core” inflation remains low
0
1
2
3
4
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 26
6
8
Consumer price index
percent
Quarterly change(saar)
Inflation is anticipated to rise 2.1 percent this year
and 2.2 percent next year
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Percent changefrom a year earlier
Q4-2011
Blue Chip CPI Forecast
Actual Forecast
2011 2012 2013
3.3 2.1 2.2
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 27
Inflation is anticipated to remain
below the target of many policy makers
5
6
Personal consumption expenditure - chain price index
percent change from a year earlier
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14
FOMC
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 28
Core inflation is anticipated to remain
below 2 percent through 2014
4
5
Personal consumption expenditure - less food and energy -
chain price indexpercent change from a year earlier
0
1
2
3
4
1990 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14
FOMC
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 29
10
15
Industrial production- manufacturing
percent
Percent changefrom a year earlier
Industrial output in manufacturing fell quite sharply
during the recession, but has risen strongly over
the past thirty months, averaging 6.1% and has
recovered 62.6% of the loss during the recession
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Quarterly change(saar)
Percent changefrom a year earlier
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 30
80
82
84
86
Capacity utilization - manufacturing
percent
Manufacturing capacity utilization
has been rising since June 2009
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 31
Declines in manufacturing output were
broad-based during the Great Recession –
especially in primary metals and vehicle manufacturing
-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
Manufacturing
Durable Goods
WoodProducts
Industrial output:December2007 - June 2009
percent change
WoodProducts
Nonmetallic Mineral Products
PrimaryMetals
FabricatedMetal Products
Machinery
Computer and Electronic Components
Electrical Eqpt, Appliances & Components
Motor Vehicles and Parts
Aerospace & Miscellaneous Transport Equip
Furniture and RelatedProducts
Miscellaneous Durable Goods
Nondurable Manufacturing
Food, Beverages, and Tobacco
Textile andProduct Mills
Apparel and Leather Goods
Paper
Printing and RelatedSupport Activities
Chemicals
Petroleum and Coal Products
Plastics andRubber Products
Other Manufacturing
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 32
The recovery has also been broad-based with
primary metals and automotive manufacturing
leading the way
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Manufacturing
Durable Goods
WoodProducts
Industrial output:June 2009 - December2011
percent change
WoodProducts
Nonmetallic Mineral Products
PrimaryMetals
FabricatedMetal Products
Machinery
Computer and Electronic Components
Electrical Eqpt, Appliances & Components
Motor Vehicles and Parts
Aerospace & Miscellaneous Transport Equip
Furniture and RelatedProducts
Miscellaneous Durable Goods
Nondurable Manufacturing
Food, Beverages, and Tobacco
Textile andProduct Mills
Apparel and Leather Goods
Paper
Printing and RelatedSupport Activities
Chemicals
Petroleum and Coal Products
Plastics andRubber Products
OtherManufacturing
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 33
65
70
75
Chicago
Purchasing managers' index - composite
net percent reporting increases
The Chicago purchasing managers index
has been significantly above the nation’s
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
United States
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 34
Midwest manufacturing has been
outperforming the U.S. during the recovery
10
15
20
Midwest
Industrial output - manufacturing
percent change from a year earlier
United States
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
United States
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 35
Industrial production is forecast to rise at a solid pace
5
10
Total industrial production
percent
Quarterly change(saar)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Percent changefrom a year earlier
Q4-2011
Blue Chip IP Forecast
Actual Forecast
2011 2012 2013
3.7 2.8 3.3
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 36
19
20
21
22
Light vehicle sales
millions of units (saar)
Light vehicle sales have been improving following the
2011 Tōhuku earthquake and tsunami
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 37
15
20
Consumer price index - new vehicles
percent
Monthly change(saar)
New vehicle prices rose sharply
following the Japanese disaster
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Percent changefrom a year earlier
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 38
80
90
100
80
90
100
Share of light vehicle sales
percent
imports
percent
Increases in new domestic production share
has offset losses in Detroit-3 market share
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10
Detroit-3
new domestics
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 39
17
18
Vehicle sales
millions of units
Vehicle sales are expected to improve at a good pace
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1980 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
Blue Chip Light-Vehicle
SalesForecast
Actual Forecast
2011 2012 2013
12.7 13.7 14.4
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 40
2,000
2,500
Housing starts
thousands
Housing starts fell to a post WWII low
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1960 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 41
2,000
2,500
Housing starts
thousands
The forecast calls for a very gradual recovery in housing
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1980 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
Blue Chip Housing Starts
Forecast (thousands)
Actual Forecast
2011 2012 2013
607 708 873
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 42
14
16
18
Credit spreads between Corporate HighYield and Corporate Aaa
percent
Credit spreads between Corporate High Yield securities
and Corporate Aaa securities have moved higher
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 43
7
8
9
Fed Funds rate
percent
Monetary policy has been very aggressive,
keeping the Fed Funds near zero since December 2008
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 44
The Federal Funds Rate is anticipated to remain
very low over the forecast horizon
7
8
9
Target Federal Funds Rate
percent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
FOMC
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 45
2,500
3,000
Assets of the Federal Reserve
Billions of dollars
Maiden Lane II & III
Term Asset-Backed Securities
Loan Facility
The asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet
has expanded in size and in composition
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Term Auction Credit Securities HeldOutright
Central Bank Swaps
Maiden Lane II & III
Commercial Paper Facility
2007 2008 2009
AIG Support
Maiden Lane
2010 2011
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 46
300
350
Monetaryexpansion2007-currentperiod
index:Jan 2007 = 100
monetarybase
300
350
Monetaryexpansion1929-1933
index:Jan 1929 = 100
The Fed’s expansion of the monetary base
has allowed the money supply to continue rising,
compared with what took place during the 1930s
50
100
150
200
250
2007 '08 '09 '10 '11
M2
CPI
50
100
150
200
250
1929 '30 '31 '32 '33
monetarybase
M2
CPI
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 47
•The outlook is for the U.S. economy to expand at a
pace below trend this year and slightly above trend in 2013
Summary
•Employment is expected to rise moderately with the
unemployment rate edging lower
•Slackness in the economy will lead to a relatively
contained inflation rate
•Vehicle sales are anticipated to rise at a good pace
•Growth in manufacturing output should be solid
William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook 48
www.chicagofed.org
www.federalreserve.gov

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2012 Economic Forecast Presentation

  • 1. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 1 Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Aurora Regional Chamber of Commerce Aurora, IL February 1, 2012
  • 2. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 2 The “Great Recession” ended in June 2009, but the economy expanded by just 1.6% over the past year 6 8 10 Real gross domestic product percent Quarterly change(saar) -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 Quarterly change(saar) Percent changefrom a year earlier
  • 3. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 3 1.0 2.0 Chicago Fed National Activity Index The Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month average is just below zero -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 Monthly Three monthaverage
  • 4. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 4 2,500 3,000 Liabilities of the Federal Reserve Billions of dollars The liabilities side of the Fed’s balance sheet shows large amount of excess reserves 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Treasury Balance Currency inCirculation 2007 2008 2009 2010 DepositsofDepository Institutions 2011
  • 5. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 5 80 100 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey net percentage of domestic respondents tightening commercial and industrial loan standards Lending standards for commercial and industrial loans had begun to loosen -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 medium and large firms Small firms
  • 6. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 6 50 60 70 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey net percentage ofdomestic respondentstightening credit card and other consumer loan standards Lending standards for credit cards and other consumer loans have also begun to loosen -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 1996 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 other consumerloans credit cards
  • 7. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 7 60 80 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey net percentage of domestic respondents tightening mortgage loan standards Lending standards for mortgage loans remain relatively tight -20 0 20 40 60 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
  • 8. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 8 Personal savings rate has recently moved lower 12 14 16 Personal savings as a percent of disposable personal income percent 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1960 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
  • 9. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 9 Existing home prices fell by over 30% $210,000 $230,000 $250,000 Median sales price - existing single family home 3-monthsmoothed $90,000 $110,000 $130,000 $150,000 $170,000 $190,000 $210,000 1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
  • 10. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 10 1,200 1,400 1,600 S&P 500 stock index Index: 1941-43 = 10 The stock market has improved since March 2009, but remains well below previous levels 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
  • 11. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 11 23 24 25 Consumer credit as a percentage of disposable income percent Consumer credit as a share of disposable income appears to be ticking higher after moving lower over the past several years 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
  • 12. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 12 6 8 10 Real gross domestic product percent Quarterly change(saar) Blue Chip GDP Forecast Actual Forecast 2011 2012 2013 GDP is forecast to grow near trend in 2012 and slightly above trend in 2013 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Quarterly change(saar) Percent changefrom a year earlier Q4-2011 1.6 2.4 2.8
  • 13. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 13 116 118 120 122 Business cycle recovery path index- business cycle trough = 100 1981-82 The forecast path of the current recovery is relatively muted compared with past deep recession recovery cycles average annualized growth: 5.4% 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 116 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 2008-09 Blue Chip forecast recovery path 1974-75 quarters beforetrough quartersafter trough average annualized growth: 5.3% average annualized growth: 2.4%
  • 14. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 14 2.4 2 3 Contributions to real GDP growth during the current recovery percentage points (annual rate) The recovery has been led by the consumer and business sectors 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.8 -0.2 -0.2 -1 0 1 2 GDP Consumption Business Fixed Investment Residential Investment Change in Inventories Government Net Exports
  • 15. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 15 The FOMC participants see real GDP improving over time 4 5 6 Real gross domestic product percent change from a year earlier -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 FOMC
  • 16. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 16 Employment fell by over 8.7 million jobs between December 2007 and February 2010, but it began to rise beginning in March 2010 and added 1.64 million jobs during 2011 2 3 4 Total employment percent -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 Quarterly change(saar) Percent changefrom a year earlier
  • 17. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 17 9 10 11 Unemployment rate percent After peaking in October 2009, the unemployment rate has fallen by 1.5 percentage points 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
  • 18. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 18 10 12 Unemployment rate percent Unemployment rate percent Q4-2011 Blue Chip Forecast The unemployment rate is forecast to tick lower 0 2 4 6 8 10 2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
  • 19. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 19 The FOMC participants expect the unemployment rate to gradually fall 9 10 11 Unemployment rate percent 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 FOMC
  • 20. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 20 12 14 16 MI Unemployment rate percent Unemployment rates have been moving lower in many states in the Midwest - however, Illinois’ unemployment rate has increased by 0.6 percentage points over the past year 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 US IL IN IA WI
  • 21. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 21 5 6 Personal consumption expenditure - chain price index percent change from a year earlier Inflation has risen -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
  • 22. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 22 120 140 Real West Texas Intermediate oil price dollars per barrel. 2011 dollars In large part due to the movement of oil prices. However, adjusted for inflation, current oil prices are below the levels that existed thirty years ago 0 20 40 60 80 100 1970 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
  • 23. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 23 12 14 16 Real natural gas price dollars per mmbtu(2011 dollars) Natural gas prices remain low 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1994 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
  • 24. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 24 Expenditures on energy are just below the historical average 9 10 Energy goods and services expenditures as a share of total consumptionpercent 9 10 Energy goods and services expenditures as a share of total consumptionpercent 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 1960-2010 10s
  • 25. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 25 4 5 Personal consumption expenditure - less food and energy - chain price indexpercent change from a year earlier Removing the volatile food and energy components from the PCE, “core” inflation remains low 0 1 2 3 4 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
  • 26. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 26 6 8 Consumer price index percent Quarterly change(saar) Inflation is anticipated to rise 2.1 percent this year and 2.2 percent next year -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Percent changefrom a year earlier Q4-2011 Blue Chip CPI Forecast Actual Forecast 2011 2012 2013 3.3 2.1 2.2
  • 27. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 27 Inflation is anticipated to remain below the target of many policy makers 5 6 Personal consumption expenditure - chain price index percent change from a year earlier -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1990 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 FOMC
  • 28. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 28 Core inflation is anticipated to remain below 2 percent through 2014 4 5 Personal consumption expenditure - less food and energy - chain price indexpercent change from a year earlier 0 1 2 3 4 1990 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 FOMC
  • 29. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 29 10 15 Industrial production- manufacturing percent Percent changefrom a year earlier Industrial output in manufacturing fell quite sharply during the recession, but has risen strongly over the past thirty months, averaging 6.1% and has recovered 62.6% of the loss during the recession -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 Quarterly change(saar) Percent changefrom a year earlier
  • 30. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 30 80 82 84 86 Capacity utilization - manufacturing percent Manufacturing capacity utilization has been rising since June 2009 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
  • 31. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 31 Declines in manufacturing output were broad-based during the Great Recession – especially in primary metals and vehicle manufacturing -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 Manufacturing Durable Goods WoodProducts Industrial output:December2007 - June 2009 percent change WoodProducts Nonmetallic Mineral Products PrimaryMetals FabricatedMetal Products Machinery Computer and Electronic Components Electrical Eqpt, Appliances & Components Motor Vehicles and Parts Aerospace & Miscellaneous Transport Equip Furniture and RelatedProducts Miscellaneous Durable Goods Nondurable Manufacturing Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Textile andProduct Mills Apparel and Leather Goods Paper Printing and RelatedSupport Activities Chemicals Petroleum and Coal Products Plastics andRubber Products Other Manufacturing
  • 32. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 32 The recovery has also been broad-based with primary metals and automotive manufacturing leading the way -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Manufacturing Durable Goods WoodProducts Industrial output:June 2009 - December2011 percent change WoodProducts Nonmetallic Mineral Products PrimaryMetals FabricatedMetal Products Machinery Computer and Electronic Components Electrical Eqpt, Appliances & Components Motor Vehicles and Parts Aerospace & Miscellaneous Transport Equip Furniture and RelatedProducts Miscellaneous Durable Goods Nondurable Manufacturing Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Textile andProduct Mills Apparel and Leather Goods Paper Printing and RelatedSupport Activities Chemicals Petroleum and Coal Products Plastics andRubber Products OtherManufacturing
  • 33. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 33 65 70 75 Chicago Purchasing managers' index - composite net percent reporting increases The Chicago purchasing managers index has been significantly above the nation’s 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 United States
  • 34. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 34 Midwest manufacturing has been outperforming the U.S. during the recovery 10 15 20 Midwest Industrial output - manufacturing percent change from a year earlier United States -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 United States
  • 35. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 35 Industrial production is forecast to rise at a solid pace 5 10 Total industrial production percent Quarterly change(saar) -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Percent changefrom a year earlier Q4-2011 Blue Chip IP Forecast Actual Forecast 2011 2012 2013 3.7 2.8 3.3
  • 36. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 36 19 20 21 22 Light vehicle sales millions of units (saar) Light vehicle sales have been improving following the 2011 Tōhuku earthquake and tsunami 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
  • 37. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 37 15 20 Consumer price index - new vehicles percent Monthly change(saar) New vehicle prices rose sharply following the Japanese disaster -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 Percent changefrom a year earlier
  • 38. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 38 80 90 100 80 90 100 Share of light vehicle sales percent imports percent Increases in new domestic production share has offset losses in Detroit-3 market share 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1980 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 Detroit-3 new domestics
  • 39. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 39 17 18 Vehicle sales millions of units Vehicle sales are expected to improve at a good pace 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1980 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 Blue Chip Light-Vehicle SalesForecast Actual Forecast 2011 2012 2013 12.7 13.7 14.4
  • 40. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 40 2,000 2,500 Housing starts thousands Housing starts fell to a post WWII low 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 1960 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
  • 41. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 41 2,000 2,500 Housing starts thousands The forecast calls for a very gradual recovery in housing 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 1980 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 Blue Chip Housing Starts Forecast (thousands) Actual Forecast 2011 2012 2013 607 708 873
  • 42. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 42 14 16 18 Credit spreads between Corporate HighYield and Corporate Aaa percent Credit spreads between Corporate High Yield securities and Corporate Aaa securities have moved higher 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  • 43. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 43 7 8 9 Fed Funds rate percent Monetary policy has been very aggressive, keeping the Fed Funds near zero since December 2008 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
  • 44. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 44 The Federal Funds Rate is anticipated to remain very low over the forecast horizon 7 8 9 Target Federal Funds Rate percent 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 FOMC
  • 45. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 45 2,500 3,000 Assets of the Federal Reserve Billions of dollars Maiden Lane II & III Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility The asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet has expanded in size and in composition 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Term Auction Credit Securities HeldOutright Central Bank Swaps Maiden Lane II & III Commercial Paper Facility 2007 2008 2009 AIG Support Maiden Lane 2010 2011
  • 46. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 46 300 350 Monetaryexpansion2007-currentperiod index:Jan 2007 = 100 monetarybase 300 350 Monetaryexpansion1929-1933 index:Jan 1929 = 100 The Fed’s expansion of the monetary base has allowed the money supply to continue rising, compared with what took place during the 1930s 50 100 150 200 250 2007 '08 '09 '10 '11 M2 CPI 50 100 150 200 250 1929 '30 '31 '32 '33 monetarybase M2 CPI
  • 47. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 47 •The outlook is for the U.S. economy to expand at a pace below trend this year and slightly above trend in 2013 Summary •Employment is expected to rise moderately with the unemployment rate edging lower •Slackness in the economy will lead to a relatively contained inflation rate •Vehicle sales are anticipated to rise at a good pace •Growth in manufacturing output should be solid
  • 48. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook 48 www.chicagofed.org www.federalreserve.gov