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What Napoleon's March on Moscow Teaches About Workforce Planning
- 1. What Can We Learn About Workforce Planning From Napoleon? 1 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 2. Napoleon’s March on Moscow in 1812 In September, troops enter Moscow On June 1812, 400,000 troops advance Direc=on the army was on Russia traveling, showing where 100,000 troops begin Weather temperature at split off and rejoined the return to France units certain dates in the campaign Brutal cold, guerilla 10,000 troops aLacks, and lack of food crossed the Nemen troops cross the 27,000 and supplies deplete the Berezina in November French troops 2 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 3. Scenario Planning Applied to the French Invasion of Russia: The Turning Point – Battle of Polotsk What are the range of What leading utcomes as what f hese What aire ohe ikelihood r e engage possible t indicators o t condi=ons What s the l implica=ons o t these increase tussian nd come oo each oato St. the R he probability mf frui=on? outcomes a Army in oust we utcome? outcomes how t ur push dapt? Petersburg? Scenario 1 (Best Case): French troops push Scenario 2 (Most LRussian troops. roops slow East unimpded by ikely): Russian t down the French troops aRussian troops stop Scenario 3 (Worst Case): t Polotsk, delaying a march on Saint Pto Saint Petersburg at Polotsk; the French push etersburg. the baKle must be decided at Moscow. 3 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 4. This Webcast Will Discuss… The business case for aligning talent 1 supply and business demand What is scenario planning and how it can 2 improve strategic workforce planning Three leading prac)ces to maximize workforce 3 planning efforts 4 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 5. Workforce Strategy Archetypes Over the Last Decade 5 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 6. …So Why Do We Continue to See Disconnects Between Strategy and How a Company Manages Talent? 1. Paralysis due to the lack of clarity about the future business environment 2. Lack of understanding of (and focus on) the rela)onship between strategy and talent 3. Lack of understanding of the true “cost” of talent 4. Lack of insight into future talent requirements 5. Disparate, disconnected, and overly-‐engineered HR management processes developed for technocrats, not business people 6 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 7. Three Leading Practices to Achieve Optimal Talent Alignment With Strategic Workforce Planning Keep a close pulse on business drivers to understand how value Keep a close pulse 1 on business drivers is created and monitor leading indicators to gain an early read on how condi)ons in the market and economy impact these drivers. U=lize Scenario U)lize scenario planning techniques to map out the range of 2 Planning Techniques likely futures and link the SWP process and discussions about talent to these scenarios. Segment and Differen)ate the workforce by segmen)ng talent along the 3 Differen=ate Talent dis)nct ac)vi)es that correspond to each business driver. 7 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 8. Let’s First Get Grounded on a Definition for Strategic Workforce Planning 8 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 9. Scenario Planning Provides a Methodology for Identifying Alternative Strategic Options Tradi=onal Planning Scenario Planning “Best” case (+15%) Strategic Op=on A “Base” case Strategic Op=on B R E FUTU “Worst” case (-‐15%) TODAY TODAY Strategic Op=on C Appropriate in rela=vely stable environment Appropriate for long-‐term planning and to and/or very short-‐term talent planning. force “out-‐of-‐the-‐box” thinking. 9 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 10. The Strategic Workforce Planning Process… 1 Iden)fy the value drivers (e.g., Translate business cri)cal ac)vi)es and processes) strategy into to achieve the business strategy value drivers Determine ac)ons and 6 2 Iden)fy the current and investments to close the Determine Determine future organiza)onal gaps, including )me and talent strategy capabilities capabili)es associated money associated with to close gaps needed to win with the value drivers build, buy, rent decisions Strategic Workforce Planning 5 3 Iden)fy apparent and Iden)fy and segment hidden gaps and run Identify and talent (by role) based on Identify gaps segment talent mul)ple scenarios, if rela)onship to organiza)ona needed, to understand capabili)es poten)al gaps 4 Determine future headcount Potential demand vs. Determine headcount demand vs. application of supply supply in each role, while factoring scenario planning both internal and external labor market dynamics 10 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 11. Leading Practice 1: Keep A Close Pulse On Business Drivers Case: Wireless Telecommunica=ons Co. § Iden)fying the highest priority business drivers § Determining the capabili)es that have the greatest influence on strategy execu)on § Establishing clear lines of accountability for key results § Ensuring the key performance measures are known to all § Communica)ng to employees how performance in their func)onal area influences company performance § Determining cri)cal competencies required to deliver against these drivers § Deploying the right talent into the right roles 11 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 12. Value Tree Mapping™ Case Example: What are the Key Drivers of Revenue? Price / Value Adver)sing Effec)veness Ability to Acquire Customers Marke)ng Effec)veness Number of Ability to Retain Customer Revenue Customers Customers Sa)sfac)on Ability to Understand Customer Loss Customer Needs Rate Prepaid Base Level of Plan Plan Sold Compe))veness ARPU Plan Type Postpaid Ability to Sell Data/ Selling = High Priority Value Drivers Addi)onal Services Effec)veness HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 13. Value Tree Mapping™ Case Example: What are the Drivers of Customer Satisfaction and Retention? Availability of New Products Web Role Defini)on &Technologies Ease of Access to Training Price / Value Support Call Center Effec)veness Customer Sa=sfac=on & Customer Support Ability to Diagnose Effec)veness of Effec)veness & Resolve Issues Service Reps Hiring Effec)veness Reten=on Clarity of Service Reliability Network Coverage Systems Quality Performance Metrics Alignment + Billing Clarity Network Reliability Capital Expenditure Compensa)on & Mo)va)on Flexibility of Payment Op)ons Equipment Quality 13 13 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 14. Lens to Examine Talent Implications of Critical Business Drivers § Demand and growth forecasts § Poli)cal and regulatory change Industry Economics § Labor and material costs § Global markets § Disrup)ve § Emerging compe))on technologies Emerging Compe==ve § Pricing § Technology Technologies Landscape trends § Brand posi)on Key § Product life-‐ Business cycles Drivers § Changing buying paKerns § Cash flow Financial Customer § Customer demographics § Access to capital Constraints Dynamics § Brand loyalty § Debt to capital ra)o § Customer/market access 14 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 15. Leading Practice 2: Utilize Scenario Planning Techniques Case: An Electronic Systems and Controls Business Expands Into China § The business develops and applies advanced technologies that enable energy-‐genera)ng facili)es to operate safely and in an energy-‐efficient manner across the globe § To meet a projected 8 percent increase in electricity consump)on, China says it will add about 235 gigawaKs of hydroelectric, nuclear, wind and solar power capacity by 2015 § China wants 11.4 percent of its energy to come from non-‐fossil-‐ fuel energy sources by 2015 and has a goal of 15 percent by decade's end § One strategic op)on calls for significant growth in the nuclear controls and opera)on management businesses, but leaders are concerned that expansion in China will be difficult to execute § Difficultly acquiring, developing, and deploying the necessary systems engineering talent to support the business has been iden)fied as a key constraint 15 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 16. Scenario-based Workforce Planning Enables Organizations to… § Focus on those strategic decisions that will drive performance § Model and plan for changing workforce assump)ons § Build consensus among the senior management team around the most “robust” strategic op)ons § Iden)fy “leading indicators” with which to monitor ongoing change of cri)cal business drivers § Quickly adapt short-‐term ac)ons and long-‐term strategy as business condi)ons change 16 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 17. Four Basic Steps to Scenario-based Workforce Planning 1. Iden=fy the “most likely” business scenario 2. Determine baseline business scenario 3. Iden=fy alterna=ve business scenarios 4. Validate with key stakeholders 17 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 18. Case Example: Scenario Planning for China Expansion 18 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 19. Leading Practice 3: Segment and Differentiate Talent Case: Defense and Civil Contractor to the US Government § The business provides professional services to various government agencies with a broad range of capabili)es and areas of exper)se including cyberwarfare and security § Defense Department has been called on to find $259 billion in cuts in the next five years — and $487 billion over the decade § PaneKa has repeatedly said that he would preserve financing for Special Opera)ons forces, cyberwarfare and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems § An up)ck in government contracts and task orders related to cyber security projects suggest a significant change in the type of work the firm will be doing over the next five year and the type of talent it needs 19 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 20. Segmentation Enables Workforce Differentiation and Focuses the Talent Strategy and HR Service Delivery Priorities Talent Management and Role/Segment Typical Porlolio Gap Required HR Alignment Efforts HR Service Priori=es § Build capacity through rapid Strategic Talent infusion of external talent and § Talent pipelining § Talent shortage § Key to compe))ve accelerated development of select § Atrophy in strategic § EVP/Branding advantage internal talent organiza)onal § Reten)on § Normally a “hot skill” in § Tailor the employee value capability § Accelerated development high demand proposi)on (EVP) to aKract top talent Core Talent § Talent shortage § Protect and strengthen capabili)es § Selec)on (current or an)cipated § Possesses proprietary through ongoing development of due to aKri)on) § AKrac)on and reten)on knowledge and skills current bench and talent pipeline § Atrophy in and strong EVP § Development § Hard to replace – “tribal organiza)onal knowledge” § Strengthen the EVP § Performance management capability Requisite Talent § Development/rota)on § Performs work that is § Talent overage § Streamline and/or outsource § Performance management necessary but could be § Low ROI on talent segment or consider re-‐tooling handled through alterna)ve investment around core capabili)es § Exi)ng (aKri)on, outsourcing, staffing/ delivery strategies downsizing) Non-‐Core (Misfit) Talent § Divest en)re talent § Exi)ng (aKri)on, outsourcing, § Possesses skill sets no § Talent overage § Iden)fy opportuni)es to move “A” downsizing) longer needed players into other roles 20 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 21. Case Example: Differentiating Talent to Penetrate Cyber Security Market Role/Segment Example Roles § Malware Analyst Strategic Talent § Digital Forensics Analyst § Key to compe))ve advantage § Cloud Compu)ng Engineer § Normally a “hot skill” in high demand § Cyber Intelligence Analyst Core Talent § Penetra)on Tester § Possesses proprietary knowledge and skills § Network Security Analyst § Hard to replace – “tribal knowledge” § Network Intelligence Analyst Requisite Talent § Systems Administrator Performs work that is necessary but could be handled § Systems Integrator through alterna)ve staffing/ delivery strategies § Help Desk Professional Non-‐Core (Misfit) Talent § Not Applicable Possesses skill sets no longer needed 21 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 22. A Segmented Workforce Strategy Enables Optimal Alignment Shed Support roles whose work can be delivered at a lower cost with the same quality Demand for Goods/Services Shed Surplus roles that are no longer relevant to the business If current or future ROI can be measured, add Strategic and Core roles that are directly related to the critical business drivers Time Demand Talent Portfolio 22 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 23. How to Get Started… 1. Look for opportuni)es to surface fact-‐based insights about the workforce capabili)es and capacity that may impact the ability to achieve the business strategy 2. Know the business inside and out and be able ar)culate the talent implica)ons of changes in the business environment 3. Apply the leading prac)ces to a hot-‐buKon issue of your leadership team 23 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 24. 24 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved
- 25. Aaron Sorensen, Ph.D. Dr. Aaron Sorensen is a Principal with Axiom Consul)ng Partners, a management consul)ng firm that helps businesses align strategy, organiza)on, and talent to achieve superior results. A psychologist with a background in advanced analy)cs, Aaron brings unique insight to organiza)on, leadership, and workforce issues that impact profitability and constrain growth. He has worked with numerous organiza)ons on their talent management challenges including 3M, Corning, Booz Allen Hamilton, and Novar)s. He frequently publishes and speaks on the topics of strategic workforce planning, succession planning and talent management and is an author to The Talent Management Handbook chapter on strategic workforce planning. Aaron has a Masters and PhD in Industrial/Organiza)onal Psychology with a concentra)on in Applied Sta)s)cs and Business from DePaul University, and a Bachelors of Science with honors in Psychology from the University of Iowa. Aaron is a member of the Society of Industrial Organiza)onal Psychologists (SIOP) and the American Psychological Associa)on (APA). Aaron is based in Axiom’s Chicago office and can be reached at 312.343.4644 or asorensen@axiomcp.com. 25 HR Execu)ve Webcast | February 9, 2012 | Property of Axiom Consul)ng Partners. All Rights Reserved