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SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
A STRATEGY FOR PERFORMANCE
EXCELLENCE
A STRATEGY FOR PERFORMANCE
EXCELLENCE
Ruben GuajardoRuben Guajardo
Deepak NavnithDeepak Navnith
Victor TorresVictor Torres
Kuan ZhangKuan Zhang
Professor:Professor:
Neil KaneNeil Kane
March 16th
, 2001
MS&E 269
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
99.9% is already VERY GOOD
But what could happen at a quality level of 99.9% (i.e., 1000 ppm),
in our everyday lives (about 4.6σ)?
• More than 3000 newborns accidentally falling
from the hands of nurses or doctors each year
• 4000 wrong medical prescriptions each year
• 400 letters per hour which never arrive at their destination
• Two long or short landings at American airports each day
How good is good enough?
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
How can we get these results
• 13 wrong drug prescriptions per year
• 10 newborn babies dropped by
doctors/nurses per year
• Two short or long landings per year in all
the airports in the U.S.
• One lost article of mail per hour
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
The answer is:
Six Sigma
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
A Vision and Philosophical commitment
to our consumers to offer the highest quality,
lowest cost products
A Metric that demonstrates quality levels at
99.9997% performance for products and
processs
A Benchmark of our product and process
capability for comparison to ‘best in class’
A practical application of statistical Tools
and Methods to help us measure, analyze,
improve, and control our process
What is Six Sigma
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Six Sigma as a Philosophy
Internal &
External
Failure
Costs
Prevention &
Appraisal
Costs
Old Belief
4σ
Costs
Internal &
External
Failure Costs
Prevention &
Appraisal
Costs
New Belief
Costs
4σ
5σ
6σ
Quality
Quality
Old Belief
High Quality = High Cost
New Belief
High Quality = Low Cost
σ is a measure of how much
variation exists in a process
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
3 Sigma Vs. 6 Sigma
The 3 sigma Company The 6 sigma Company
• Spends 15~25% of sales dollars
on cost of failure
• Spends 5% of sales dollars on
cost of failure
• Relies on inspection to find
defects
• Relies on capable process that
don’t produce defects
• Does not have a disciplined
approach to gather and analyze
data
• Use Measure, Analyze, Improve,
Control and Measure, Analyze,
Design
• Benchmarks themselves
against their competition
• Benchmarks themselves
against the best in the world
• Believes 99% is good enough • Believes 99% is unacceptable
• Define CTQs internally • Defines CTQs externally
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Focus: The End User
• Customer: Internal or External
• Consumer: The End User
the “Voice of the Consumer” (Consumer Cue)
must be translated into
the “Voice of the Engineer” (Technical Requirement)
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Six Sigma as a Metric
CENSORED
1
)( 2
−
−
=
∑
n
xxi

σ
Sigma = σ = Deviation
( Square root of variance )
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Axis graduated in Sigma
68.27 %
95.45 %
99.73 %
99.9937 %
99.999943 %
99.9999998 %
result: 317300 ppm outside
(deviation)
45500 ppm
2700 ppm
63 ppm
0.57 ppm
0.002 ppm
between + / - 1σ
between + / - 2σ
between + / - 3σ
between + / - 4σ
between + / - 5σ
between + / - 6σ
σ =
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA3-sigma Process
(centered)
Cp = 1.0
Cpk = 1.0
2,700 ppm
Spec Limits
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA3-sigma Process
(shifted 0.5 std. dev.)
Cp = 1.0
Cpk = 0.833
ppm = 6,442
(about 2.72-sigma)
Spec Limits
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA3-sigma Process
(shifted 1.0 std. dev.)
Cp = 1.0
Cpk = 0.667
ppm = 22,782
(about 2.28-sigma)
Spec Limits
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA3-sigma Process
(shifted 1.5 std. dev.)
Cp = 1.0
Cpk = 0.5
ppm = 66,811
(about 1.83-sigma)
Spec Limits
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Non-Liner Decrease
2
3
4
5
6
308,537
66,811
6,210
233
3.4
σ PPM
Process
Capability
Defects per Million
Opportunities
* Includes 1.5σ shift
Focusing on σ requires thorough process
understanding and breakthrough thinking
Focusing on σ requires thorough process
understanding and breakthrough thinking
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1 2 3 4 5 6
Process Sigma
%Change
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
PPM
From 1 to 2
From 3 to 4
From 4 to 5
From 5 to 6
% ChangePPM
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Six Sigma as a Tool
Process Mapping Tolerance Analysis
Structure Tree Components Search
Pareto Analysis Hypothesis Testing
Gauge R & R Regression
Rational Subgrouping DOE
Baselining SPC
Many familiar quality tools applied in a
structured methodology
Many familiar quality tools applied in a
structured methodology
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Six Sigma as a Method
To get results, should we focus our behavior on the Y or X
•Y •X1…Xn
•Dependent •Independent
•Output •Input-Process
•Effect •Cause
•Symptom •Problem
•Monitor •Control
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
A Traditional View
• Output Variables
Manage the outputs.
Sales Growth
Market Share
Profitability
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMAA Non-Traditional View
• Output Variables
• Input Variables
Manage the inputs; respond to the outputs.
Sales Growth
Market Share
Profitability
Customer Satisfaction
Product Quality
On-Time Delivery
COQ
Credit Terms
Relationships
Service
Customer
Training
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMADistinguish “Vital Few”
from “Trivial Many”
Y = Dependent Variable Output, Defect
x = Independent Variables Potential Cause
x* = Independent Variable Critical Cause
Define the Problem / Defect Statement
Y = f ( x1
*
, x2, x3, x4
*
, x5. . . Xn)
Process
(Parameters)
Material
Methods
People
Environment
Output
Machine
Measurements
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Strategy by Phase -
Phase
Measure
(What)
Analyze
(Where, When, Why)
Improve
(How)
Control
(Sustain, Leverage)
Step
What is the frequency of Defects?
• Define the defect
• Define performance standards
• Validate measurement system
• Establish capability metric
Where, when and why do Defects occur?
• Identify sources of variation
• Determine the critical process parameters
How can we improve the process?
• Screen potential causes
• Discover relationships
• Establish operating tolerances
Were the improvements effective?
• Re-establish capability metric
How can we maintain the improvements?
• Implement process control mechanisms
• Leverage project learning's
• Document & Proceduralize
Focus
Y
Y
Y
Y
X
Vital X
X
Vital X
Vital X
Y, Vital X
Y, Vital X
Process Characterization
Process Optimization
Measure
Improve
Analyze
Control
Measure
Improve
Analyze
Control
Measure
Improve
Analyze
Control
Measure
Improve
Analyze
Control
MeasureMeasure
AnalyzeAnalyze
ImprovementImprovement
ControlControl
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Six Sigma Organization
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
A Black Belt has…, and will…
Leadership
Statistical,
QualitySkill
InterpersonalSkill
Driving the Use
Thenew
ofSix
Sigma
Mentoring
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMABlack Belt Training
Task
Time on
Consulting/
Training
Mentoring
Related
Projects
Green
Belt
Utilize
Statistical/
Quality
technique
2%~5%
Find one
new green
belt
2 / year
Black
Belt
Lead use
of
technique
and
communic-
ate new
ones
5%~10%
Two green
belts
4 / year
Master
Black
Belt
Consulting/
Mentoring/
Training
80~100%
Five Black
Belts
10 / year
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Core Statistical Skills Core Six Sigma Quality Skills Core Interpersonal Skills
GBM Statistical Software (JMP, Minitab)
MIN101
GBM AIEG QMS GBM Communication (oral, written)
AEC722, DDI121
GBM Numerical and Graphical Techniques
MIN101, IBM548
GBM QS 9000
AEC279
GBM Team Facilitation
DDI170
GBM Statistical Process Control
AEC506, AEC661, AEC662, AEC663
GBM Customer Satisfaction
SSG100, TCS100
GBM Coaching and Mentoring
LDR380, PER119
GBM Process Capability
AEC661, AEC662, SCP201
GBM Six Steps to Six Sigma
SSG100, SSG102CD
GBM Managing Change
MGT564, MGT124, PDE532
GBM Comparative Tests
MIN101, SPC201
GBM Concurrent Engineering BM Leadership
MGT561, MGT562, DDI180
GBM Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
ENG998, AEC603
GBM TCS
TCS100
BM Team Building
MGT560, MGT562, EC727, MGT155
GBM Measurement System Analysis
AEC663
GBM Systemic Approach to Problem
Solving
QUA392
M Instructional/Teaching
MOT132
GBM Design of Experiments (e.g. Full,
Fractional, Taguchi Designs)
ENG998, QUA389
GBM Team Oriented Problem Solving
(8D, 7D, 5P)
M Managing Projects
AEC471, MGT839
GBM Regression (e.g. linear, nonlinear) BM Quality System Review
QUA590
GBM Statistical Process Characterization
Strategies and Techniques
ENG227
BM Team Problem Solving Non-
Manufacturing
CES103
BM Statistical Inference
MIN101, SPC201
BM Design for Manufacturability
ENG123, ENG123CD
BM Confidence Intervals
MIN101, SPC201
BM Financial/Economic Quality Issues
BM Probability Concepts and
Distributions
SPC201
M Quality Function Deployment
QUA200A, QUA200B, QUA200C
BM Response Surface Methods
QUA393
M Total Quality Management
BM Screening DOE
QUA391
M Benchmarking
BMK220
M Advanced Problem Solving
Strategies and Technologies
ENG998
M Product Development Assessment
M Acceptance Sampling
SPC201
M Sample Size Estimation
M Robust Design of Processes and
Products
M Survival Analysis / Reliability
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Corporate Commitment
Motorola is committed to developing these leaders…
We provide these people with extensive training in statistical
and interpersonal tools, skilled guidance and management
support…
Once their development has achieved a level worthy of
recognition, we even have a term for those exceptional
individuals :
Six Sigma Black Belts
Chris Galvin
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Corporate Commitment (Cont’d)
• Motto:
– Quality is our job
– Customer satisfaction is our duty
– Customer loyalty is our future
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Barrier Breakthrough Plan
1.00
10.00
100.00
J94
DPMOp
6 Sigma
SIGMA
J95 J96 J97
6
5.65
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.3
MY95 MY96 MY97 MY98
Pareto, Brainstorming, C&E, BvC
8D, 7D, TCS Teams, SPC
DOE, DFM, PC
RenewBlack Belt Program (Internal Motorola)
Black Belt Program (External Suppliers)
Proliferation of Master Black Belts
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMAOther Companies have Black
Belts Program
• GE has very successfully instituted this program
– 4,000 trained Black Belts by YE 1997
– 10,000 trained Black Belts by YE 2000
– “You haven’t much future at GE unless they are selected to
become Black Belts” - Jack Welch
• Kodak has instituted this program
– CEO and COO driven process
– Training includes both written and oral exams
– Minimum requirements: a college education, basic statistics,
presentation skills, computer skills
• Other companies include:
– Allied Signal -Texas Instruments
– IBM - ABB
– Navistar - Citibank
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
MeasureMeasure
Characterize Process
Understand Process
EvaluateEvaluate
Improve and Verify Process
ImproveImprove
Maintain New Process
ControlControl
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Define
Problem
Define
Problem
Understand
Process
Understand
Process
Collect
Data
Collect
Data
Process
Performance
Process
Performance
Process Capability
- Cp/Cpk
- Run Charts
Understand Problem
(Control or
Capability)
Data Types
- Defectives
- Defects
- Continuous
Measurement
Systems Evaluation
(MSE)
Define Process-
Process Mapping
Historical
Performance
Brainstorm
Potential Defect
Causes
Defect
Statement
Project
Goals
Understand the Process and Potential ImpactUnderstand the Process and Potential Impact
Measure Phase
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Reduce
Complaints
(int./ext.)
Reduce
Cost
Reduce
Defects
Problem Definitions need to be based on
quantitative facts supported by analytical data.
Problem Definitions need to be based on
quantitative facts supported by analytical data.
What are the Goals?
 What do you want to improve?
 What is your ‘Y’?
Problem Definition
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Baselining:
Quantifying the goodness (or badness!) of the current
process, before ANY improvements are made, using
sample data. The key to baselining is collecting
representative sample data
Sampling Plan
- Size of Subgroups
- Number of Subgroups
- Take as many “X” as possible into consideration
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Time
How do we know our process?
Process Map
Historical Data
Fishbone
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
RATIONAL SUBROUPING Allows samples to be taken that
include only white noise, within the samples. Black noise
occurs between the samples.
RATIONAL SUBROUPING Allows samples to be taken that
include only white noise, within the samples. Black noise
occurs between the samples.
RATIONAL SUBGROUPS
Minimize variation within subroups
Maximize variation between subrgoups
RATIONAL SUBGROUPS
Minimize variation within subroups
Maximize variation between subrgoups
TIME
PROCESS
RESPONSE
WHITE NOISE
(Common Cause
Variation)
BLACK NOISE
(Signal)
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Visualizing the Causes
σ st + σshift =
σtotal
Time 1
Time 2
Time 3
Time 4
Within Group
•Called σ short term (σst)
•Our potential – the best
we can be
•The s reported by all 6
sigma companies
•The trivial many
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Visualizing the Causes
Between Groups
σ st + σshift = σtotal
Time 1
Time 2
Time 3
Time 4
•Called σshift (truly a
measurement in sigmas of how
far the mean has shifted)
•Indicates our process control
•The vital few
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Assignable Cause
• Outside influences
• Black noise
• Potentially controllable
• How the process is actually performing
over time
Fishbone
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Common Cause Variation
• Variation present in every process
• Not controllable
• The best the process can be within the
present technology
Data within subgroups (Z.st) will contain only Common Cause
Variation
Data within subgroups (Z.st) will contain only Common Cause
Variation
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
σ2
Total = σ2
Part-Part + σ2
R&R
Recommendation:
Resolution ≤ 10% of tolerance to measure
Gauge R&R ≤ 20% of tolerance to measure
• Repeatability (Equipment variation)
Variation observed with one measurement device when used several times by one operator
while measuring the identical characteristic on the same part.
• Reproducibility (Appraised variation)
Variation Obtained from different operators using the same device when measuring the
identical characteristic on the same part.
•Stability or Drift
Total variation in the measurement obtained with a measurement obtained on the same
master or reference value when measuring the same characteristic, over an extending time
period.
Gauge R&R
Part-Part
R&R
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
To understand where you want to be,
you need to know how to get there.v
To understand where you want to be,
you need to know how to get there.v
Map the ProcessMap the Process
Measure the ProcessMeasure the Process
Identify the variables - ‘x’Identify the variables - ‘x’
Understand the Problem -
’Y’ = function of variables -’x’
Y=f(x)
Understand the Problem -
’Y’ = function of variables -’x’
Y=f(x)
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
MeasureMeasure
Characterize Process
Understand Process
EvaluateEvaluate
Improve and Verify Process
ImproveImprove
Maintain New Process
ControlControl
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
In many cases, the data sample can be transformed so that it is approximately normal.
For example, square roots, logarithms, and reciprocals often take a positively skewed
distribution and convert it to something close to a bell-shaped curve
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
What do we Need?
LSL USL LSL USL
LSL USL
Off-Target, Low Variation
High Potential Defects
Good Cp but Bad Cpk
On Target
High Variation
High Potential Defects
No so good Cp and Cpk
On-Target, Low Variation
Low Potential Defects
Good Cp and Cpk
Variation reduction and process
centering create processes with
less potential for defects.
The concept of defect reduction
applies to ALL processes (not just
manufacturing)
Variation reduction and process
centering create processes with
less potential for defects.
The concept of defect reduction
applies to ALL processes (not just
manufacturing)
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Eliminate “Trivial Many”Eliminate “Trivial Many”
Qualitative Evaluation
Technical Expertise
Graphical Methods
Screening Design of Experiments
Qualitative Evaluation
Technical Expertise
Graphical Methods
Screening Design of Experiments
Identify “Vital Few”Identify “Vital Few”
Pareto Analysis
Hypothesis Testing
Regression
Design of Experiments
Pareto Analysis
Hypothesis Testing
Regression
Design of ExperimentsQuantify
Opportunity
Quantify
Opportunity
% Reduction in Variation
Cost/ Benefit
% Reduction in Variation
Cost/ Benefit
Our Goal:
Identify the Key Factors (x’s)
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Graph>Box plot
75%
50%
25%
Graph>Box plot
Without X values
DBP
Box plots help to see the data distribution
Day
DBP
10
9
10
4
99
94
109
104
99
94
Operator
DBP
10
9
10
4
99
94
Shift
DBP
10
9
10
4
99
94
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Statistical Analysis
0.0250.0200.0150.0100.0050.000
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
New Machine
Frequency
0.0250.0200.0150.0100.0050.000
30
20
10
0
Machine 6 mths
Frequency
Is the factor really important?
Do we understand the impact for
the factor?
Has our improvement made an
impact
What is the true impact?
Hypothesis Testing
Regression Analysis
55453525155
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
X
Y
R-Sq = 86.0 %
Y = 2.19469 + 0.918549X
95% PI
Regression
Regression Plot
Compare
Sample
Means
&
Variances
Identify
Relationships
Establish
Limits
Apply statistics to validate actions & improvements
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
A- Poor Control, Poor Process
B- Must control the Process better, Technology is fine
C- Process control is good, bad Process or technology
D- World Class
A B
C D
TECHNOLOGY
1 2 3 4 5 6
goodpoor
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
CONTROL
Ζ shift
ΖSt
poor
good
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Con-
sumer
Cue
Technical
Requirement
Preliminary
Drawing/Database
Identity
CTQs
Identify
Critical
Process
Obtain Data on
Similar Process
Calculate Z
values
Rev 0
Drawings
Stop
Adjust
process &
design
1st
piece
inspection
Prepilot
Data
Pilot data
Obtain data
Recheck
‘Z’ levels
Stop Fix
process &
design
Z<3
Z>= Design Intent
M.A.I.C
M.A.D
Six Sigma Design Process
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
• #1 Define the customer Cue and technical requirement we
need to satisfy
Consumer Cue: Blocks Cannot rattle and must not
interfere with box
Technical Requirement: There must be a positive Gap
Reliability (Level)
Time to install
Total Electricity Usage Req'd for System
Time to Repair
Floor space occupied NO INPUT IN THIS AREA
Sensor Resolution
Response time to power loss
Voltage
Power
Time to supply Backup Power
backup power capacity (time)
Sensor Sensitivity
Floor Loading
Time Between maintenance
Time between equipment replacement
Safety Index Rating
Cost of investment
Cost of maintenace
Cost of installation
Years in Mainstream market
Customer Support Rating
Dependency on weather conditions
ECO-rating
Hours of training req'd
Preferred up dwn dwn dwn dwn dwn dwn tgt tgt dwn dwn tgt dwn up up
Engineering Metrics
Customer Requirements
CustomerWeights
Reliability(Level)
Timetoinstall
TotalElectricityUsageReq'dforSystem
TimetoRepair
Floorspaceoccupied
SensorResolution
Responsetimetopowerloss
Voltage
Power
TimetosupplyBackupPower
backuppowercapacity(time)
SensorSensitivity
FloorLoading
TimeBetweenmaintenance
Timebetweenequipmentreplacement
SafetyIndexRating
Costofinvestment
Costofmaintenace
Costofinstallation
YearsinMainstreammarket
1 Fast Response 9
2 Long time of backup power supply 9
3 Low environmental impact 9
4 Safe to operate 9
5 Meet power requirements 9
6 Low investment cost 3
7 Occupies small floor space 3
8 Easy to upgrade 3
9 Low upgrading costs 3
10 Low time to implement 3
11 Cheap to maintain 3
12 Low recovery or cycle time 3
13 Long life cycle of the system/component 1
14 Cheap to operate 1
15 Cheap to install 1
16 Long Existing proven technology 1
Q
FD
,FM
EA
,R
TY
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
• #2 Define the target dimensions (New designs) or
process mean (existing design) for all mating Parts
Gap Must Be T=.011, LSL=.001 and USL = .021
Gap
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
(-) (-) (-) (-)
(+)
Step #3
• Gather process capability data.
• Use actual or similar part data to calculate SS of
largest contributors.
• May use expert data for minimal contributors
• Do not calculate s from current tolerances
Gap Requirements
µT = .010
USL = .020
LSL = .001
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
(-) (-) (-) (-)
(+)
µgap= µbox – µcube1 – µcube2 – µcube3 – µcube4
σgap = σ2
box + σ2
cube1 + σ2
cube2 + σ2
cube3 + σ2
cube4
Short Term
µgap= 5.080 – 1.250 – 1.250 – 1.250 – 1.250 = .016
σgap = (.001)2
+ (.001)2
+ (.001)2
+ (.001)2
+ (.001)2
= .00224
Long Term
σgap = (.0015)2
+ (.0015)2
+ (.0015)2
+ (.0015)2
+ (.0015)2
= .00335
From process:
Average σst
Cube 1.250 .001
Box 5.080 .001
Zshift = 1.6
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
MeasureMeasure
Characterize Process
Understand Process
EvaluateEvaluate
Improve and Verify Process
ImproveImprove
Maintain New Process
ControlControl
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
6σ
What Do I need to do to improve my Game?
GUTTER!
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Design of Experiments (DOE)Design of Experiments (DOE)
• To estimate the effects of independent Variables on
Responses.
• TerminologyTerminology
Factor – An independent variable
Level – A value for the factor.
Response - Outcome
X Y
PROCESS
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
THE COFFEE EXAMPLE
Low High
Coffee Brand Maxwell House Chock Full o Nuts
Water Spring Tap
Coffee Amount 1 2
Level
Factor
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Main EffectsMain Effects: Effect of each individual factor on response
Bean ‘A’ Bean ‘B’
Taste
2.2
3.7
ME
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Bean ‘A’
Temp ‘X’
Bean ‘B’
Temp ‘Y’
Taste
Interaction
Concept of InteractionConcept of Interaction
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Why use DoE ?Why use DoE ?
• Shift the average of a process.
• Reduce the variation.
• Shift average and reduce variation
x1 x2
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
DoE techniques
• Full Factorial.
2
4
= 16 trials
2 is number of levels
4 is number of factors
• All combinations are tested.
• Fractional factorial can reduce number of
trials from 16 to 8.
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
DoE techniques….contd.
• Fractional Factorial
• Taguchi techniques
• Response Surface Methodologies
• Half fraction
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
High Low
Adhesion Area (cm2
) 15 20
Type of Glue Acryl Urethan
Thickness of Foam Styrene Thick Thin
Thickness of Logo Thick Thin
Amount of pressure Short Long
Pressure application time Small Big
Primer applied Yes No
Level
Factor
Mini Case - NISSAN MOTOR COMPANYMini Case - NISSAN MOTOR COMPANY
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
+
+ +
+ +
- -
-
+
+ -
- +
- +
+
-
- +
+ +
- -
-
-
- -
- +
- +
+
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9.8
Design Array
A B C DNo Gluing Str
8.9
9.2
8.9
12.3
13
13.9
12.6
A - Adhesion Area (cm2
)
B - Type of Glue
C - Thickness of Foam
Styrene
D - Thickness of Logo
`
A B C D
+ 4.60 5.50 5.65 5.58
- 6.48 5.58 5.43 5.50
Effect Tabulation
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
+ - + - + - + -
GluingStrength
Adhesion
Area Type of Glue Thk of Foam
Styrene
Thk of logo
Factor Effect Plot
4.6
6.5
5.5
5.58 5.65
5.43
5.58
5
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
1. Define Objective.
2. Select the Response (Y)
3. Select the factors (Xs)
4. Choose the factor levels
5. Select the Experimental Design
6. Run Experiment and Collect the Data
7. Analyze the data
8. Conclusions
9. Perform a confirmation run.
STEPS IN PLANNING AN EXPERIMENTSTEPS IN PLANNING AN EXPERIMENT
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
“….No amount of experimentation can prove
me right; a single experiment can prove me
wrong”.
“….Science can only ascertain what is, but
not what should be, and outside of its domain
value judgments of all kinds remain
necessary.”
- Albert Einstein
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
MeasureMeasure
Characterize Process
Understand Process
EvaluateEvaluate
Improve and Verify Process
ImproveImprove
Maintain New Process
ControlControl
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
CONTROL PHASE - SIX SIGMA
Control Phase Activities:
-Confirmation of Improvement
-Confirmation you solved the practical problem
-Benefit validation
-Buy into the Control plan
-Quality plan implementation
-Procedural changes
-System changes
-Statistical process control implementation
-“Mistake-proofing” the process
-Closure documentation
-Audit process
-Scoping next project
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
CONTROL PHASE - SIX SIGMA
How to create a Control Plan:
1. Select Causal Variable(s). Proven vital few X(s)
2. Define Control Plan
- 5Ws for optimal ranges of X(s)
3. Validate Control Plan
- Observe Y
4. Implement/Document Control Plan
5. Audit Control Plan
6. Monitor Performance Metrics
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
CONTROL PHASE - SIX SIGMA
Control Plan Tools:
1. Basic Six Sigma control methods.
- 7M Tools: Affinity diagram, tree diagram, process
decision program charts, matrix diagrams,
interrelationship diagrams, prioritization matrices,
activity network diagram.
2. Statistical Process Control (SPC)
- Used with various types of distributions
- Control Charts
•Attribute based (np, p, c, u). Variable based (X-R, X)
•Additional Variable based tools
-PRE-Control
-Common Cause Chart (Exponentially Balanced
Moving Average (EWMA))
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
PRODUCT
MANAGEMENT
OVERALL
GOAL OF
SOFTWARE
KNOWLEDGE OF
COMPETITORS
SUPERVISION
PRODUCT
DESIGN
PRODUCT
MANAGEMENT
PRODUCT
DESIGN
PRODUCT
MANAGEMENT
INNOVATION
OUTPUT
DIRECTORY
ORGANIZATION
INTUITIVE
ANSWERS
SUPPORT
METHODS TO MAKE
EASIER FOR USERS
CHARACTERISTICS:
• Organizing ideas into meaningful
categories
• Data Reduction. Large numbers of qual.
Inputs into major dimensions or categories.
AFFINITY DIAGRAM
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
MATRIX DIAGRAM
Patientscheduled
Attendantassigned
Attendantarrives
Obtainsequipment
Transportspatient
ProvideTherapy
Notifiesofreturn
Attendantassigned
Attendantarrives
Patientreturned
Arrive at scheduled time 5 5 5 5 1 5 0 0 0 0 0
Arrive with proper equipment 4 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dressed properly 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Delivered via correct mode 2 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Take back to room promptly 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5
IMPORTANCE SCORE 39 25 25 27 25 0 20 20 20 20
RANK 1 3 3 2 3 7 6 6 6 6
5 = high importance, 3 = average importance, 1 = low importance
HOWS
WHATS
RELATIONSHIP
MATRIX
CUSTOMER
IMPORTANCE
MATRIX
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Addfeatures
Makeexistingproductfaster
Makeexistingproducteasiertouse
Leaveas-isandlowerprice
Devoteresourcestonewproducts
Increasetechnicalsupportbudget
Outarrows
Inarrows
Totalarrows
Strength
Add features 5 0 5 45
Make existing product faster 2 1 3 27
Make existing product easier to use 1 2 3 21
Leave as-is and lower price 0 3 3 21
Devote resources to new products 1 1 2 18
Increase technical support budget 0 2 2 18
(9) = Strong Influence
(3) = Some Influence
(1) = Weak/possible influence
Means row leads to column item
Means column leads to row item
COMBINATION ID/MATRIX DIAGRAM
CHARACTERISTICS:
•Uncover patterns in
cause and effect
relationships.
•Most detailed level in
tree diagram. Impact
on one another
evaluated.
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
CONTROL PHASE - SIX SIGMA
Control Plan Tools:
1. Basic Six Sigma control methods.
- 7M Tools: Affinity diagram, tree diagram, process
decision program charts, matrix diagrams,
interrelationship diagrams, prioritization matrices,
activity network diagram.
2. Statistical Process Control (SPC)
- Used with various types of distributions
- Control Charts
•Attribute based (np, p, c, u). Variable based (X-R, X)
•Additional Variable based tools
-PRE-Control
-Common Cause Chart (Exponentially Balanced
Moving Average (EWMA))
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
How do we select the correct Control Chart:
Type
Data
Ind. Meas. or
subgroups
Normally dist.
data
Interest in
sudden mean
changes
Graph defects
of defectives
Oport. Area
constant from
sample to
sample
X, Rm
p, np
X - RMA, EWMA or
CUSUM and
Rm
u
C, u
Size of the
subgroup
constant
p
If mean is big, X and
R are effective too
Ir neither n nor p are
small: X - R, X - Rm
are effective
More efective to
detect gradual
changes in long term
Use X - R chart with
modified rules
VariablesAttributes
Measurement
of subgroupsIndividuals
Yes
No No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Defects Defectives
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Additional Variable based tools:
1. PRE-Control
•Algorithm for control based on tolerances
•Assumes production process with measurable/adjustable
quality characteristic that varies.
•Not equivalent to SPC. Process known to be capable of
meeting tolerance and assures that it does so.
•SPC used always before PRE-Control is applied.
•Process qualified by taking consecutive samples of individual
measurements, until 5 in a row fall in central zone, before 2
fall in cautionary. Action taken if 2 samples are in Cau. zone.
•Color coded
YELLOW
ZONE
GREEN
ZONE
YELLOW
ZONE
RED
ZONE
RED
ZONE
1/4 TOL. 1/2 TOL. 1/4 TOL.
Low
Tolerance
Limt
Tolerance
Limt
High
ReferenceLine
PRE-Control
DIMENSION
NOMINAL
ReferenceLine
PRE-Control
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
2. Common Causes Chart (EWMA).
•Mean of automated manufacturing processes drifts because of
inherent process factor. SPC consideres process static.
•Drift produced by common causes.
•Implement a “Common Cause Chart”.
•No control limits. Action limits are placed on chart.
•Computed based on costs
•Violating action limit does not result in search for special
cause. Action taken to bring process closer to target value.
•Process mean tracked by EWMA
•Benefits:
•Used when process has inherent drift
•Provide forecast of where next process measurement will be.
•Used to develop procedures for dynamic process control
•Equation: EWMA = y^t + σ (yt - y^t) σ between 0 and 1
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
EWMA chart of sand temperature
0
50
100
150
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
Observations
Degrees
Sand
Temperature
EWMA
Sand Temperature EWMA Error
125 125.00 0.00
123 125.00 -2.00
118 123.20 -5.20
116 118.52 -2.52
108 116.25 -8.25
112 108.83 3.17
101 111.68 -10.68
100 102.07 -2.07
92 100.21 -8.21
102 98.22 3.78
111 101.62 9.38
107 110.60 -3.60
112 107.30 4.70
112 111.53 0.47
122 111.95 10.05
140 121.00 19.00
125 138.00 -13.00
130 126.31 3.69
136 129.63 6.37
130 135.36 -5.36
112 130.54 -18.54
115 113.85 1.15
100 114.89 -14.89
113 101.49 11.51
111 111.85 -0.85
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Project Closure
•Improvement fully implemented and process re-baselined.
•Quality Plan and control procedures institutionalized.
•Owners of the process: Fully trained and running the process.
•Any required documentation done.
•History binder completed. Closure cover sheet signed.
•Score card developed on characteristics improved and reporting
method defined.
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Motorola ROI
1987-1994
• Reduced in-process defect levels by a factor of 200.
• Reduced manufacturing costs by $1.4 billion.
• Increased employee production on a dollar basis by 126%.
• Increased stockholders share value fourfold.
AlliedSignal ROI
1992-1996
• $1.4 Billion cost reduction.
• 14% growth per quarter.
• 520% price/share growth.
• Reduced new product introduction time by 16%.
• 24% bill/cycle reduction.
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
General Electric ROI
1995-1998
• Company wide savings of over $1 Billion.
• Estimated annual savings to be $6.6 Billion by the year 2000.
SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA
Bibliography
• Control Engineering On line, “Design for Six Sigma Capability”
http://www.controleng.com/, 1999
• Forrest W. Breyfogle III, “Implementing Six Sigma”, John Wiely & Sons, Inc,1999
• Infinity Performance Systems, “Six Sigma Overview”,
http://www.6sigmaworld.com/six_sigma.htm, 2000
• Motorola Inc., “What is 3 vs. 6 sigma”,
http://www.Motorola.com/MIMS/MSPG/Special/CLM/sld011.htm, 1997
• Sigma Holdings, Inc., “Six Sigma Breakthrough Strategy”,
http://www.6-sigma.com/Bts1.htm, 2000
• Six Sigma SPC / Jim Winings, “Six Sigma & SPC”,
http://www.sixsigmaspc.com/six_sigma.html, 2001
• StatPoint, LLC. “Six Sigma Tour”,
http://www.sgcorp.com/six-sigma_tour.htm, 2001

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Six Sigma Strategy for Performance Excellence

  • 1. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA A STRATEGY FOR PERFORMANCE EXCELLENCE A STRATEGY FOR PERFORMANCE EXCELLENCE Ruben GuajardoRuben Guajardo Deepak NavnithDeepak Navnith Victor TorresVictor Torres Kuan ZhangKuan Zhang Professor:Professor: Neil KaneNeil Kane March 16th , 2001 MS&E 269
  • 2. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA 99.9% is already VERY GOOD But what could happen at a quality level of 99.9% (i.e., 1000 ppm), in our everyday lives (about 4.6σ)? • More than 3000 newborns accidentally falling from the hands of nurses or doctors each year • 4000 wrong medical prescriptions each year • 400 letters per hour which never arrive at their destination • Two long or short landings at American airports each day How good is good enough?
  • 3. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA How can we get these results • 13 wrong drug prescriptions per year • 10 newborn babies dropped by doctors/nurses per year • Two short or long landings per year in all the airports in the U.S. • One lost article of mail per hour
  • 4. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA The answer is: Six Sigma
  • 5. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA A Vision and Philosophical commitment to our consumers to offer the highest quality, lowest cost products A Metric that demonstrates quality levels at 99.9997% performance for products and processs A Benchmark of our product and process capability for comparison to ‘best in class’ A practical application of statistical Tools and Methods to help us measure, analyze, improve, and control our process What is Six Sigma
  • 6. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Six Sigma as a Philosophy Internal & External Failure Costs Prevention & Appraisal Costs Old Belief 4σ Costs Internal & External Failure Costs Prevention & Appraisal Costs New Belief Costs 4σ 5σ 6σ Quality Quality Old Belief High Quality = High Cost New Belief High Quality = Low Cost σ is a measure of how much variation exists in a process
  • 7. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA 3 Sigma Vs. 6 Sigma The 3 sigma Company The 6 sigma Company • Spends 15~25% of sales dollars on cost of failure • Spends 5% of sales dollars on cost of failure • Relies on inspection to find defects • Relies on capable process that don’t produce defects • Does not have a disciplined approach to gather and analyze data • Use Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control and Measure, Analyze, Design • Benchmarks themselves against their competition • Benchmarks themselves against the best in the world • Believes 99% is good enough • Believes 99% is unacceptable • Define CTQs internally • Defines CTQs externally
  • 8. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Focus: The End User • Customer: Internal or External • Consumer: The End User the “Voice of the Consumer” (Consumer Cue) must be translated into the “Voice of the Engineer” (Technical Requirement)
  • 9. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Six Sigma as a Metric CENSORED 1 )( 2 − − = ∑ n xxi  σ Sigma = σ = Deviation ( Square root of variance ) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Axis graduated in Sigma 68.27 % 95.45 % 99.73 % 99.9937 % 99.999943 % 99.9999998 % result: 317300 ppm outside (deviation) 45500 ppm 2700 ppm 63 ppm 0.57 ppm 0.002 ppm between + / - 1σ between + / - 2σ between + / - 3σ between + / - 4σ between + / - 5σ between + / - 6σ σ =
  • 10. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA3-sigma Process (centered) Cp = 1.0 Cpk = 1.0 2,700 ppm Spec Limits
  • 11. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA3-sigma Process (shifted 0.5 std. dev.) Cp = 1.0 Cpk = 0.833 ppm = 6,442 (about 2.72-sigma) Spec Limits
  • 12. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA3-sigma Process (shifted 1.0 std. dev.) Cp = 1.0 Cpk = 0.667 ppm = 22,782 (about 2.28-sigma) Spec Limits
  • 13. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA3-sigma Process (shifted 1.5 std. dev.) Cp = 1.0 Cpk = 0.5 ppm = 66,811 (about 1.83-sigma) Spec Limits
  • 14. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Non-Liner Decrease 2 3 4 5 6 308,537 66,811 6,210 233 3.4 σ PPM Process Capability Defects per Million Opportunities * Includes 1.5σ shift Focusing on σ requires thorough process understanding and breakthrough thinking Focusing on σ requires thorough process understanding and breakthrough thinking 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 2 3 4 5 6 Process Sigma %Change 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 PPM From 1 to 2 From 3 to 4 From 4 to 5 From 5 to 6 % ChangePPM
  • 15. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Six Sigma as a Tool Process Mapping Tolerance Analysis Structure Tree Components Search Pareto Analysis Hypothesis Testing Gauge R & R Regression Rational Subgrouping DOE Baselining SPC Many familiar quality tools applied in a structured methodology Many familiar quality tools applied in a structured methodology
  • 16. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Six Sigma as a Method To get results, should we focus our behavior on the Y or X •Y •X1…Xn •Dependent •Independent •Output •Input-Process •Effect •Cause •Symptom •Problem •Monitor •Control
  • 17. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA A Traditional View • Output Variables Manage the outputs. Sales Growth Market Share Profitability
  • 18. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMAA Non-Traditional View • Output Variables • Input Variables Manage the inputs; respond to the outputs. Sales Growth Market Share Profitability Customer Satisfaction Product Quality On-Time Delivery COQ Credit Terms Relationships Service Customer Training
  • 19. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMADistinguish “Vital Few” from “Trivial Many” Y = Dependent Variable Output, Defect x = Independent Variables Potential Cause x* = Independent Variable Critical Cause Define the Problem / Defect Statement Y = f ( x1 * , x2, x3, x4 * , x5. . . Xn) Process (Parameters) Material Methods People Environment Output Machine Measurements
  • 20. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Strategy by Phase - Phase Measure (What) Analyze (Where, When, Why) Improve (How) Control (Sustain, Leverage) Step What is the frequency of Defects? • Define the defect • Define performance standards • Validate measurement system • Establish capability metric Where, when and why do Defects occur? • Identify sources of variation • Determine the critical process parameters How can we improve the process? • Screen potential causes • Discover relationships • Establish operating tolerances Were the improvements effective? • Re-establish capability metric How can we maintain the improvements? • Implement process control mechanisms • Leverage project learning's • Document & Proceduralize Focus Y Y Y Y X Vital X X Vital X Vital X Y, Vital X Y, Vital X Process Characterization Process Optimization Measure Improve Analyze Control Measure Improve Analyze Control Measure Improve Analyze Control Measure Improve Analyze Control MeasureMeasure AnalyzeAnalyze ImprovementImprovement ControlControl
  • 21. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Six Sigma Organization
  • 22. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA A Black Belt has…, and will… Leadership Statistical, QualitySkill InterpersonalSkill Driving the Use Thenew ofSix Sigma Mentoring
  • 23. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMABlack Belt Training Task Time on Consulting/ Training Mentoring Related Projects Green Belt Utilize Statistical/ Quality technique 2%~5% Find one new green belt 2 / year Black Belt Lead use of technique and communic- ate new ones 5%~10% Two green belts 4 / year Master Black Belt Consulting/ Mentoring/ Training 80~100% Five Black Belts 10 / year
  • 24. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Core Statistical Skills Core Six Sigma Quality Skills Core Interpersonal Skills GBM Statistical Software (JMP, Minitab) MIN101 GBM AIEG QMS GBM Communication (oral, written) AEC722, DDI121 GBM Numerical and Graphical Techniques MIN101, IBM548 GBM QS 9000 AEC279 GBM Team Facilitation DDI170 GBM Statistical Process Control AEC506, AEC661, AEC662, AEC663 GBM Customer Satisfaction SSG100, TCS100 GBM Coaching and Mentoring LDR380, PER119 GBM Process Capability AEC661, AEC662, SCP201 GBM Six Steps to Six Sigma SSG100, SSG102CD GBM Managing Change MGT564, MGT124, PDE532 GBM Comparative Tests MIN101, SPC201 GBM Concurrent Engineering BM Leadership MGT561, MGT562, DDI180 GBM Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) ENG998, AEC603 GBM TCS TCS100 BM Team Building MGT560, MGT562, EC727, MGT155 GBM Measurement System Analysis AEC663 GBM Systemic Approach to Problem Solving QUA392 M Instructional/Teaching MOT132 GBM Design of Experiments (e.g. Full, Fractional, Taguchi Designs) ENG998, QUA389 GBM Team Oriented Problem Solving (8D, 7D, 5P) M Managing Projects AEC471, MGT839 GBM Regression (e.g. linear, nonlinear) BM Quality System Review QUA590 GBM Statistical Process Characterization Strategies and Techniques ENG227 BM Team Problem Solving Non- Manufacturing CES103 BM Statistical Inference MIN101, SPC201 BM Design for Manufacturability ENG123, ENG123CD BM Confidence Intervals MIN101, SPC201 BM Financial/Economic Quality Issues BM Probability Concepts and Distributions SPC201 M Quality Function Deployment QUA200A, QUA200B, QUA200C BM Response Surface Methods QUA393 M Total Quality Management BM Screening DOE QUA391 M Benchmarking BMK220 M Advanced Problem Solving Strategies and Technologies ENG998 M Product Development Assessment M Acceptance Sampling SPC201 M Sample Size Estimation M Robust Design of Processes and Products M Survival Analysis / Reliability
  • 25. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Corporate Commitment Motorola is committed to developing these leaders… We provide these people with extensive training in statistical and interpersonal tools, skilled guidance and management support… Once their development has achieved a level worthy of recognition, we even have a term for those exceptional individuals : Six Sigma Black Belts Chris Galvin
  • 26. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Corporate Commitment (Cont’d) • Motto: – Quality is our job – Customer satisfaction is our duty – Customer loyalty is our future
  • 27. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Barrier Breakthrough Plan 1.00 10.00 100.00 J94 DPMOp 6 Sigma SIGMA J95 J96 J97 6 5.65 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 MY95 MY96 MY97 MY98 Pareto, Brainstorming, C&E, BvC 8D, 7D, TCS Teams, SPC DOE, DFM, PC RenewBlack Belt Program (Internal Motorola) Black Belt Program (External Suppliers) Proliferation of Master Black Belts
  • 28. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMAOther Companies have Black Belts Program • GE has very successfully instituted this program – 4,000 trained Black Belts by YE 1997 – 10,000 trained Black Belts by YE 2000 – “You haven’t much future at GE unless they are selected to become Black Belts” - Jack Welch • Kodak has instituted this program – CEO and COO driven process – Training includes both written and oral exams – Minimum requirements: a college education, basic statistics, presentation skills, computer skills • Other companies include: – Allied Signal -Texas Instruments – IBM - ABB – Navistar - Citibank
  • 29. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA MeasureMeasure Characterize Process Understand Process EvaluateEvaluate Improve and Verify Process ImproveImprove Maintain New Process ControlControl
  • 30. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Define Problem Define Problem Understand Process Understand Process Collect Data Collect Data Process Performance Process Performance Process Capability - Cp/Cpk - Run Charts Understand Problem (Control or Capability) Data Types - Defectives - Defects - Continuous Measurement Systems Evaluation (MSE) Define Process- Process Mapping Historical Performance Brainstorm Potential Defect Causes Defect Statement Project Goals Understand the Process and Potential ImpactUnderstand the Process and Potential Impact Measure Phase
  • 31. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Reduce Complaints (int./ext.) Reduce Cost Reduce Defects Problem Definitions need to be based on quantitative facts supported by analytical data. Problem Definitions need to be based on quantitative facts supported by analytical data. What are the Goals?  What do you want to improve?  What is your ‘Y’? Problem Definition
  • 32. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Baselining: Quantifying the goodness (or badness!) of the current process, before ANY improvements are made, using sample data. The key to baselining is collecting representative sample data Sampling Plan - Size of Subgroups - Number of Subgroups - Take as many “X” as possible into consideration
  • 33. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Time How do we know our process? Process Map Historical Data Fishbone
  • 34. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA RATIONAL SUBROUPING Allows samples to be taken that include only white noise, within the samples. Black noise occurs between the samples. RATIONAL SUBROUPING Allows samples to be taken that include only white noise, within the samples. Black noise occurs between the samples. RATIONAL SUBGROUPS Minimize variation within subroups Maximize variation between subrgoups RATIONAL SUBGROUPS Minimize variation within subroups Maximize variation between subrgoups TIME PROCESS RESPONSE WHITE NOISE (Common Cause Variation) BLACK NOISE (Signal)
  • 36. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Visualizing the Causes σ st + σshift = σtotal Time 1 Time 2 Time 3 Time 4 Within Group •Called σ short term (σst) •Our potential – the best we can be •The s reported by all 6 sigma companies •The trivial many
  • 37. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Visualizing the Causes Between Groups σ st + σshift = σtotal Time 1 Time 2 Time 3 Time 4 •Called σshift (truly a measurement in sigmas of how far the mean has shifted) •Indicates our process control •The vital few
  • 38. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Assignable Cause • Outside influences • Black noise • Potentially controllable • How the process is actually performing over time Fishbone
  • 39. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Common Cause Variation • Variation present in every process • Not controllable • The best the process can be within the present technology Data within subgroups (Z.st) will contain only Common Cause Variation Data within subgroups (Z.st) will contain only Common Cause Variation
  • 40. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA σ2 Total = σ2 Part-Part + σ2 R&R Recommendation: Resolution ≤ 10% of tolerance to measure Gauge R&R ≤ 20% of tolerance to measure • Repeatability (Equipment variation) Variation observed with one measurement device when used several times by one operator while measuring the identical characteristic on the same part. • Reproducibility (Appraised variation) Variation Obtained from different operators using the same device when measuring the identical characteristic on the same part. •Stability or Drift Total variation in the measurement obtained with a measurement obtained on the same master or reference value when measuring the same characteristic, over an extending time period. Gauge R&R Part-Part R&R
  • 41. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA To understand where you want to be, you need to know how to get there.v To understand where you want to be, you need to know how to get there.v Map the ProcessMap the Process Measure the ProcessMeasure the Process Identify the variables - ‘x’Identify the variables - ‘x’ Understand the Problem - ’Y’ = function of variables -’x’ Y=f(x) Understand the Problem - ’Y’ = function of variables -’x’ Y=f(x)
  • 42. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA MeasureMeasure Characterize Process Understand Process EvaluateEvaluate Improve and Verify Process ImproveImprove Maintain New Process ControlControl
  • 43. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA In many cases, the data sample can be transformed so that it is approximately normal. For example, square roots, logarithms, and reciprocals often take a positively skewed distribution and convert it to something close to a bell-shaped curve
  • 44. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA What do we Need? LSL USL LSL USL LSL USL Off-Target, Low Variation High Potential Defects Good Cp but Bad Cpk On Target High Variation High Potential Defects No so good Cp and Cpk On-Target, Low Variation Low Potential Defects Good Cp and Cpk Variation reduction and process centering create processes with less potential for defects. The concept of defect reduction applies to ALL processes (not just manufacturing) Variation reduction and process centering create processes with less potential for defects. The concept of defect reduction applies to ALL processes (not just manufacturing)
  • 45. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Eliminate “Trivial Many”Eliminate “Trivial Many” Qualitative Evaluation Technical Expertise Graphical Methods Screening Design of Experiments Qualitative Evaluation Technical Expertise Graphical Methods Screening Design of Experiments Identify “Vital Few”Identify “Vital Few” Pareto Analysis Hypothesis Testing Regression Design of Experiments Pareto Analysis Hypothesis Testing Regression Design of ExperimentsQuantify Opportunity Quantify Opportunity % Reduction in Variation Cost/ Benefit % Reduction in Variation Cost/ Benefit Our Goal: Identify the Key Factors (x’s)
  • 46. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Graph>Box plot 75% 50% 25% Graph>Box plot Without X values DBP Box plots help to see the data distribution Day DBP 10 9 10 4 99 94 109 104 99 94 Operator DBP 10 9 10 4 99 94 Shift DBP 10 9 10 4 99 94
  • 47. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Statistical Analysis 0.0250.0200.0150.0100.0050.000 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 New Machine Frequency 0.0250.0200.0150.0100.0050.000 30 20 10 0 Machine 6 mths Frequency Is the factor really important? Do we understand the impact for the factor? Has our improvement made an impact What is the true impact? Hypothesis Testing Regression Analysis 55453525155 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 X Y R-Sq = 86.0 % Y = 2.19469 + 0.918549X 95% PI Regression Regression Plot Compare Sample Means & Variances Identify Relationships Establish Limits Apply statistics to validate actions & improvements
  • 48. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA A- Poor Control, Poor Process B- Must control the Process better, Technology is fine C- Process control is good, bad Process or technology D- World Class A B C D TECHNOLOGY 1 2 3 4 5 6 goodpoor 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 CONTROL Ζ shift ΖSt poor good
  • 49. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Con- sumer Cue Technical Requirement Preliminary Drawing/Database Identity CTQs Identify Critical Process Obtain Data on Similar Process Calculate Z values Rev 0 Drawings Stop Adjust process & design 1st piece inspection Prepilot Data Pilot data Obtain data Recheck ‘Z’ levels Stop Fix process & design Z<3 Z>= Design Intent M.A.I.C M.A.D Six Sigma Design Process
  • 50. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA • #1 Define the customer Cue and technical requirement we need to satisfy Consumer Cue: Blocks Cannot rattle and must not interfere with box Technical Requirement: There must be a positive Gap Reliability (Level) Time to install Total Electricity Usage Req'd for System Time to Repair Floor space occupied NO INPUT IN THIS AREA Sensor Resolution Response time to power loss Voltage Power Time to supply Backup Power backup power capacity (time) Sensor Sensitivity Floor Loading Time Between maintenance Time between equipment replacement Safety Index Rating Cost of investment Cost of maintenace Cost of installation Years in Mainstream market Customer Support Rating Dependency on weather conditions ECO-rating Hours of training req'd Preferred up dwn dwn dwn dwn dwn dwn tgt tgt dwn dwn tgt dwn up up Engineering Metrics Customer Requirements CustomerWeights Reliability(Level) Timetoinstall TotalElectricityUsageReq'dforSystem TimetoRepair Floorspaceoccupied SensorResolution Responsetimetopowerloss Voltage Power TimetosupplyBackupPower backuppowercapacity(time) SensorSensitivity FloorLoading TimeBetweenmaintenance Timebetweenequipmentreplacement SafetyIndexRating Costofinvestment Costofmaintenace Costofinstallation YearsinMainstreammarket 1 Fast Response 9 2 Long time of backup power supply 9 3 Low environmental impact 9 4 Safe to operate 9 5 Meet power requirements 9 6 Low investment cost 3 7 Occupies small floor space 3 8 Easy to upgrade 3 9 Low upgrading costs 3 10 Low time to implement 3 11 Cheap to maintain 3 12 Low recovery or cycle time 3 13 Long life cycle of the system/component 1 14 Cheap to operate 1 15 Cheap to install 1 16 Long Existing proven technology 1 Q FD ,FM EA ,R TY
  • 51. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA • #2 Define the target dimensions (New designs) or process mean (existing design) for all mating Parts Gap Must Be T=.011, LSL=.001 and USL = .021 Gap
  • 52. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA (-) (-) (-) (-) (+) Step #3 • Gather process capability data. • Use actual or similar part data to calculate SS of largest contributors. • May use expert data for minimal contributors • Do not calculate s from current tolerances Gap Requirements µT = .010 USL = .020 LSL = .001
  • 53. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA (-) (-) (-) (-) (+) µgap= µbox – µcube1 – µcube2 – µcube3 – µcube4 σgap = σ2 box + σ2 cube1 + σ2 cube2 + σ2 cube3 + σ2 cube4 Short Term µgap= 5.080 – 1.250 – 1.250 – 1.250 – 1.250 = .016 σgap = (.001)2 + (.001)2 + (.001)2 + (.001)2 + (.001)2 = .00224 Long Term σgap = (.0015)2 + (.0015)2 + (.0015)2 + (.0015)2 + (.0015)2 = .00335 From process: Average σst Cube 1.250 .001 Box 5.080 .001 Zshift = 1.6
  • 54. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA MeasureMeasure Characterize Process Understand Process EvaluateEvaluate Improve and Verify Process ImproveImprove Maintain New Process ControlControl
  • 55. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA 6σ What Do I need to do to improve my Game? GUTTER!
  • 56. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Design of Experiments (DOE)Design of Experiments (DOE) • To estimate the effects of independent Variables on Responses. • TerminologyTerminology Factor – An independent variable Level – A value for the factor. Response - Outcome X Y PROCESS
  • 57. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA THE COFFEE EXAMPLE Low High Coffee Brand Maxwell House Chock Full o Nuts Water Spring Tap Coffee Amount 1 2 Level Factor
  • 58. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Main EffectsMain Effects: Effect of each individual factor on response Bean ‘A’ Bean ‘B’ Taste 2.2 3.7 ME
  • 59. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Bean ‘A’ Temp ‘X’ Bean ‘B’ Temp ‘Y’ Taste Interaction Concept of InteractionConcept of Interaction
  • 60. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Why use DoE ?Why use DoE ? • Shift the average of a process. • Reduce the variation. • Shift average and reduce variation x1 x2
  • 61. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA DoE techniques • Full Factorial. 2 4 = 16 trials 2 is number of levels 4 is number of factors • All combinations are tested. • Fractional factorial can reduce number of trials from 16 to 8.
  • 62. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA DoE techniques….contd. • Fractional Factorial • Taguchi techniques • Response Surface Methodologies • Half fraction
  • 63. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA High Low Adhesion Area (cm2 ) 15 20 Type of Glue Acryl Urethan Thickness of Foam Styrene Thick Thin Thickness of Logo Thick Thin Amount of pressure Short Long Pressure application time Small Big Primer applied Yes No Level Factor Mini Case - NISSAN MOTOR COMPANYMini Case - NISSAN MOTOR COMPANY
  • 64. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA + + + + + - - - + + - - + - + + - - + + + - - - - - - - + - + + 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9.8 Design Array A B C DNo Gluing Str 8.9 9.2 8.9 12.3 13 13.9 12.6 A - Adhesion Area (cm2 ) B - Type of Glue C - Thickness of Foam Styrene D - Thickness of Logo ` A B C D + 4.60 5.50 5.65 5.58 - 6.48 5.58 5.43 5.50 Effect Tabulation
  • 65. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA + - + - + - + - GluingStrength Adhesion Area Type of Glue Thk of Foam Styrene Thk of logo Factor Effect Plot 4.6 6.5 5.5 5.58 5.65 5.43 5.58 5
  • 66. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA 1. Define Objective. 2. Select the Response (Y) 3. Select the factors (Xs) 4. Choose the factor levels 5. Select the Experimental Design 6. Run Experiment and Collect the Data 7. Analyze the data 8. Conclusions 9. Perform a confirmation run. STEPS IN PLANNING AN EXPERIMENTSTEPS IN PLANNING AN EXPERIMENT
  • 67. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA “….No amount of experimentation can prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong”. “….Science can only ascertain what is, but not what should be, and outside of its domain value judgments of all kinds remain necessary.” - Albert Einstein
  • 68. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA MeasureMeasure Characterize Process Understand Process EvaluateEvaluate Improve and Verify Process ImproveImprove Maintain New Process ControlControl
  • 69. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA CONTROL PHASE - SIX SIGMA Control Phase Activities: -Confirmation of Improvement -Confirmation you solved the practical problem -Benefit validation -Buy into the Control plan -Quality plan implementation -Procedural changes -System changes -Statistical process control implementation -“Mistake-proofing” the process -Closure documentation -Audit process -Scoping next project
  • 70. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA CONTROL PHASE - SIX SIGMA How to create a Control Plan: 1. Select Causal Variable(s). Proven vital few X(s) 2. Define Control Plan - 5Ws for optimal ranges of X(s) 3. Validate Control Plan - Observe Y 4. Implement/Document Control Plan 5. Audit Control Plan 6. Monitor Performance Metrics
  • 71. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA CONTROL PHASE - SIX SIGMA Control Plan Tools: 1. Basic Six Sigma control methods. - 7M Tools: Affinity diagram, tree diagram, process decision program charts, matrix diagrams, interrelationship diagrams, prioritization matrices, activity network diagram. 2. Statistical Process Control (SPC) - Used with various types of distributions - Control Charts •Attribute based (np, p, c, u). Variable based (X-R, X) •Additional Variable based tools -PRE-Control -Common Cause Chart (Exponentially Balanced Moving Average (EWMA))
  • 72. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA PRODUCT MANAGEMENT OVERALL GOAL OF SOFTWARE KNOWLEDGE OF COMPETITORS SUPERVISION PRODUCT DESIGN PRODUCT MANAGEMENT PRODUCT DESIGN PRODUCT MANAGEMENT INNOVATION OUTPUT DIRECTORY ORGANIZATION INTUITIVE ANSWERS SUPPORT METHODS TO MAKE EASIER FOR USERS CHARACTERISTICS: • Organizing ideas into meaningful categories • Data Reduction. Large numbers of qual. Inputs into major dimensions or categories. AFFINITY DIAGRAM
  • 73. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA MATRIX DIAGRAM Patientscheduled Attendantassigned Attendantarrives Obtainsequipment Transportspatient ProvideTherapy Notifiesofreturn Attendantassigned Attendantarrives Patientreturned Arrive at scheduled time 5 5 5 5 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 Arrive with proper equipment 4 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dressed properly 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Delivered via correct mode 2 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Take back to room promptly 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5 IMPORTANCE SCORE 39 25 25 27 25 0 20 20 20 20 RANK 1 3 3 2 3 7 6 6 6 6 5 = high importance, 3 = average importance, 1 = low importance HOWS WHATS RELATIONSHIP MATRIX CUSTOMER IMPORTANCE MATRIX
  • 74. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Addfeatures Makeexistingproductfaster Makeexistingproducteasiertouse Leaveas-isandlowerprice Devoteresourcestonewproducts Increasetechnicalsupportbudget Outarrows Inarrows Totalarrows Strength Add features 5 0 5 45 Make existing product faster 2 1 3 27 Make existing product easier to use 1 2 3 21 Leave as-is and lower price 0 3 3 21 Devote resources to new products 1 1 2 18 Increase technical support budget 0 2 2 18 (9) = Strong Influence (3) = Some Influence (1) = Weak/possible influence Means row leads to column item Means column leads to row item COMBINATION ID/MATRIX DIAGRAM CHARACTERISTICS: •Uncover patterns in cause and effect relationships. •Most detailed level in tree diagram. Impact on one another evaluated.
  • 75. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA CONTROL PHASE - SIX SIGMA Control Plan Tools: 1. Basic Six Sigma control methods. - 7M Tools: Affinity diagram, tree diagram, process decision program charts, matrix diagrams, interrelationship diagrams, prioritization matrices, activity network diagram. 2. Statistical Process Control (SPC) - Used with various types of distributions - Control Charts •Attribute based (np, p, c, u). Variable based (X-R, X) •Additional Variable based tools -PRE-Control -Common Cause Chart (Exponentially Balanced Moving Average (EWMA))
  • 76. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA How do we select the correct Control Chart: Type Data Ind. Meas. or subgroups Normally dist. data Interest in sudden mean changes Graph defects of defectives Oport. Area constant from sample to sample X, Rm p, np X - RMA, EWMA or CUSUM and Rm u C, u Size of the subgroup constant p If mean is big, X and R are effective too Ir neither n nor p are small: X - R, X - Rm are effective More efective to detect gradual changes in long term Use X - R chart with modified rules VariablesAttributes Measurement of subgroupsIndividuals Yes No No Yes Yes No Yes No Defects Defectives
  • 78. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Additional Variable based tools: 1. PRE-Control •Algorithm for control based on tolerances •Assumes production process with measurable/adjustable quality characteristic that varies. •Not equivalent to SPC. Process known to be capable of meeting tolerance and assures that it does so. •SPC used always before PRE-Control is applied. •Process qualified by taking consecutive samples of individual measurements, until 5 in a row fall in central zone, before 2 fall in cautionary. Action taken if 2 samples are in Cau. zone. •Color coded YELLOW ZONE GREEN ZONE YELLOW ZONE RED ZONE RED ZONE 1/4 TOL. 1/2 TOL. 1/4 TOL. Low Tolerance Limt Tolerance Limt High ReferenceLine PRE-Control DIMENSION NOMINAL ReferenceLine PRE-Control
  • 79. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA 2. Common Causes Chart (EWMA). •Mean of automated manufacturing processes drifts because of inherent process factor. SPC consideres process static. •Drift produced by common causes. •Implement a “Common Cause Chart”. •No control limits. Action limits are placed on chart. •Computed based on costs •Violating action limit does not result in search for special cause. Action taken to bring process closer to target value. •Process mean tracked by EWMA •Benefits: •Used when process has inherent drift •Provide forecast of where next process measurement will be. •Used to develop procedures for dynamic process control •Equation: EWMA = y^t + σ (yt - y^t) σ between 0 and 1
  • 80. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA EWMA chart of sand temperature 0 50 100 150 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 Observations Degrees Sand Temperature EWMA Sand Temperature EWMA Error 125 125.00 0.00 123 125.00 -2.00 118 123.20 -5.20 116 118.52 -2.52 108 116.25 -8.25 112 108.83 3.17 101 111.68 -10.68 100 102.07 -2.07 92 100.21 -8.21 102 98.22 3.78 111 101.62 9.38 107 110.60 -3.60 112 107.30 4.70 112 111.53 0.47 122 111.95 10.05 140 121.00 19.00 125 138.00 -13.00 130 126.31 3.69 136 129.63 6.37 130 135.36 -5.36 112 130.54 -18.54 115 113.85 1.15 100 114.89 -14.89 113 101.49 11.51 111 111.85 -0.85
  • 81. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Project Closure •Improvement fully implemented and process re-baselined. •Quality Plan and control procedures institutionalized. •Owners of the process: Fully trained and running the process. •Any required documentation done. •History binder completed. Closure cover sheet signed. •Score card developed on characteristics improved and reporting method defined.
  • 82. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Motorola ROI 1987-1994 • Reduced in-process defect levels by a factor of 200. • Reduced manufacturing costs by $1.4 billion. • Increased employee production on a dollar basis by 126%. • Increased stockholders share value fourfold. AlliedSignal ROI 1992-1996 • $1.4 Billion cost reduction. • 14% growth per quarter. • 520% price/share growth. • Reduced new product introduction time by 16%. • 24% bill/cycle reduction.
  • 83. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA General Electric ROI 1995-1998 • Company wide savings of over $1 Billion. • Estimated annual savings to be $6.6 Billion by the year 2000.
  • 84. SIX SIGMASIX SIGMA Bibliography • Control Engineering On line, “Design for Six Sigma Capability” http://www.controleng.com/, 1999 • Forrest W. Breyfogle III, “Implementing Six Sigma”, John Wiely & Sons, Inc,1999 • Infinity Performance Systems, “Six Sigma Overview”, http://www.6sigmaworld.com/six_sigma.htm, 2000 • Motorola Inc., “What is 3 vs. 6 sigma”, http://www.Motorola.com/MIMS/MSPG/Special/CLM/sld011.htm, 1997 • Sigma Holdings, Inc., “Six Sigma Breakthrough Strategy”, http://www.6-sigma.com/Bts1.htm, 2000 • Six Sigma SPC / Jim Winings, “Six Sigma & SPC”, http://www.sixsigmaspc.com/six_sigma.html, 2001 • StatPoint, LLC. “Six Sigma Tour”, http://www.sgcorp.com/six-sigma_tour.htm, 2001