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The Indian Solar Market: New Market - New Chances

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The Indian Solar Market: New Market - New Chances

  1. 1. India is a 12.8GW solar opportunity until 2016New market – new chances11th October 2012Dr. Tobias Engelmeier tobias.engelmeier@bridgetoindia.comCopyright © 2012 by BRIDGE TO INDIA Pvt Ltd.No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means— electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise — without the permission of BRIDGE TO INDIA Pvt Ltd. Thisdocument provides an outline of a presentation and is incomplete without the accompanying oral commentary and discussion.CONFIDENTIAL
  2. 2. Our business BRIDGE TO INDIA specializes in supporting international solar companies and investors in India BRIDGE TO INDIA’s key fields of expertise are: About us• Founded in 2008• Based in New Delhi, Hamburg and Munich• German competency and local expertise• Entrepreneurial approach• Solar PV as a core knowledge area• Three mutually supportive business segments Policy Market Entry Capital Investments Projects Market Potential Remittance PD Financing Competitor Landscape Due Diligence Industry Market Strategy © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012 2
  3. 3. Installed PV capacity India has more than 1GW of installed capacity already. Key Facts Solar installed capacity in India• Currently market growth centres on grid-connected plants (FiT)• This trend is expected to continue over the next three years• Around 70% of installations are in the Indian state of Gujarat, another 20% in Rajasthan – both in the West © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012 3
  4. 4. PV market projection We expect India to be a 12.8 GW market until 2016 Segments are driven by Expected installed capacity additions 2012-2016 MW (year on year) different factors 4500 Total: 12.8 4.0 GW ➡ FiT segement: NSM – 4000 GW will likely be 3.4 GW discontinued after 3500 >1GW Power already sold 2017 3000 achieved directly 2.5 GW to end con- ➡ RPO / REC segment 2500 sumer may provide good 2000 1.7 GW opportunities, but 1500 1.2 GW regulatory questions Power remain 1000 sold (mostly) 500 to the ➡ Non-subsidized grid segments will grow: 0 solar replacing 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 diesel as well as grid FIT Driven Policy Based RPO-Driven power Telecom Towers Diesel Parity (commerical+backup) Grid Parity Commercial Source: BTI market analysis, based on data from MNRE, CERC, CEA © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012 4
  5. 5. Global PV markets India is one of the most attractive solar markets globallyGlobal GW markets Annual growth (2011-16) Key drivers ➡ Ranked 2nd in the Ernst & Young country attractiveness index +143% 0.15 12.8 ➡ Market segments reach grid parity and are viable without FiT India ➡ No political incentives needed for future projects ➡ Sets RPO/ REC targets to further boost the market +16% ➡ Ranked 4th in the Ernst & Young country attractiveness index 24.7 52.7 ➡ Political frontrunner in the pastGermany ➡ Insecurity about future of the EEG ➡ Ranked 1st in the Ernst & Young country attractiveness index +49% ➡ Insecurity about future supply of Chinese modules, which may 4.2 30 result in higher prices and a lack of available technology USA ➡ Sophisticated financing ecosystem ➡ Ranked 3rd in the Ernst & Young country attractiveness index +48% ➡ Insecurity about political development towards foreign 3.1 23 investments and exchange rate fluctuations China ➡ Ranked 6th in the Ernst & Young country attractiveness index +13% ➡ Cut back of FiT in 2011 12.5 23 ➡ Insecurity about future development of the market Italy Installed capacity, Installed capacity, GW 2011 GW 2016 (e) Source: BTI market research, based on data from BTI market model, Reuters, E&Y , various © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012 5
  6. 6. Market drivers Solar power makes fundamental sense in India 1500 Structural 12 Rising power electricity (INR/kWh) power costs Price of commercial deficit 10 plus 6 % pa 1000 High and 8 Driven by gap: 13% rising power 6 rising global deficit 4 energy costs 500 and Indian By 2050: lack 2 politics BU of 600 GW capacity Trend Demand Supply expected to accelerate Source: CEA Source: State tariff orders 3.5 Falling solar India Germany High 3 costs irradiation minus 47% paUSD/ Wp 2.5 Driven by Very high sharp price irradiation 2 decline of PV levels across 1.5 modules in the country 1 last months Around twice Trend as high as expected to Germany slow Source: BRRIDGE TO INDIA research Source: SolarGis  Solar power is already commercially viable in India – without subsidies  This trend will accelerate, creating a vast market in India © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012 6
  7. 7. Underlying market logic for The world’s largest power failure in India drives new our idea business models (600m without power in July 2012)  Power security is a key concern to India’s businesses  The grid is the main weakness in India  Development of local, semi- interconnected meso-grids  We will see a new breed of local utilities/IPPs  The key strategic asset in the future is the access to customers/power consumers © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012 7
  8. 8. Indian tariff structure Solar is already competitive with grid power in some regions of IndiaAverage tariff (inEUR cents/kWh) 16 Our model works today 14 12 ➡ Today, solar reduces 10 the cost of power 1 wherever the 8 customer pays more 6 than EUR 0.11/kWh 4 2 (dependent on local Commercial irradiation levels) Industrial Domestic ➡ Wherever supply security is low and diesel power Indian States (currently 60 GW back-up systems) is Market trend used, the case for solar becomes 1 Falling cost of solar power will allow us to offer lower tariffs stronger 2 Rising power tariffs will make solar a more attractive alternative Source: CERC, SERC tariff orders © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012 8
  9. 9. Near term opportunities In 2013, opportunities will come primarily from NSM Phase II Existing opportunities (2012-13) New opportunities (2013-14) India sales opportunity: 710MW this year India sales opportunity: 2.3GW in the next year 00 FIT Driven Policy Based Installed capacity 485MW FIT Driven Non-Policy 475MW Projects under Based execution REC based projects 225MW 1,047MW Projects likely to 1,150MW RPO based projects be cancelled 392MW 180MW Opportunity (with Grid Parity Commercial DCR) and industrial 677MW Opportunity 185MW Telecom Towers (without DCR) 71MW Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA project database 50MW Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA market modelOpportunity (with DCR) NSM phase two• Madhya Pradesh allocations ( 225MW) • 1GW allocations in 1st quarter of 2013 (with DCR)Opportunity (without DCR) Uttar Pradesh policy• Karnataka (60MW) • 150MW in 2nd quarter of 2013 (without DCR)• Odisha (25MW) Projects outside policy• Direct allocations (400MW in Andhra Pradesh, • Projects outside policy based allocations. These will Jharkhand, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh - only six include projects based on new business models around developers involved – key client approach) REC mechanism, RPO based projects, commercial and industrial parity projects and telecom towers (without © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012 9 DCR)
  10. 10. Our customers We have serviced many international solar players with our Indian market knowledge Solar Companies C o n g lo m e ra te s I n st i t u t i o n sGovernment ofMadhyapradesh © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012 10
  11. 11. Our publications To read more about the Indian solar market, download our free reports from our website INDIA SOLAR INDIA SOLAR INDIA SOLAR COMPASS HANDBOOK DECISION BRIEF October 2012 June 2012 September 2012Quarterly update on key A first hand introduction on: REC Mechanism in Indiadrivers • Indian solar market • Current market status• Assessment of current • Policies • Business models projects and policies • Manufacturing • Future projections• Upstream industry analysis • Future potential• Outlook on the market Download for free on: www.bridgetoindia.com/our-reports © BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012 11
  12. 12. Contacttobias.engelmeier@bridgetoindia.comwww.bridgetoindia.comFollow us on facebook.com/bridgetoindia© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012