7. Demand & Financial Performance
• Land use and demand structure
13 July 20187
Source: Scorcia & Munoz-Raskin, The
World Bank
8. Transformation of existing
operators
• Replacement, formalization of minibus-taxi
operators
• Initially limited to competing services in
corridor
• 12-year negotiated bus operating contracts
• Very slow and costly:
– Existing services seen as “property rights” –
compensation paid
– PLUS premium paid for bus operating contract
– (PLUS some continue operating anyway)
13 July 201810
9. ITS architecture
• EMV standard for fare card
• Several costly mistakes in technology, user
interaction (fare cards)
• Now starting to integrate with other bus services
• Technological mismatch between bus operators
and bus control
13 July 201811
10. Changing BRT perspectives
Lighter, more flexible infrastructure
– City of Cape Town’s MyCiti Phase 2A
• Construction estimates = 2x that of Phase 1 per km
• Considering 23 of 53km trunk routes in mixed traffic
• Considering 28 of 47 stations open design (median or
curbside)
• New routes low-floor, low-platform
– City of Johannesburg’s Rea Vaya Phase 1C+
• Scale back dedicated trunk routes
• Outer extensions to include more mixed traffic routes
Greater role for paratransit as feeders
(hybrid systems)
Source: TDA, City of Cape Town; COJ
3 large formal systems:
CT, (Phases 1A & 1B: 31.5km dedicated trunk, 108km mixed traffic trunk, 360km feeder)
JHB , (Phases 1A and 1B: 43.5km of trunk services, 14.7 km of complementary bus services, and 75.8 km of feeder buses services ).
COT, (Line 2A: 4.4km trunk, ~2km mixed trunk, ~20km feeder)
2 large systems coming on-line:
Durban
Ekurhuleni
2 failed/delayed (PE, RUST)
Several more planned
3 large formal systems:
CT, (Phases 1A & 1B: 31.5km dedicated trunk, 108km mixed traffic trunk, 360km feeder)
JHB , (Phases 1A and 1B: 43.5km of trunk services, 14.7 km of complementary bus services, and 75.8 km of feeder buses services ).
COT, (Line 2A: 4.4km trunk, ~2km mixed trunk, ~20km feeder)
2 large systems coming on-line:
Durban
Ekurhuleni
2 failed/delayed (PE, RUST)
Several more planned
Mostly on long-dist routes between townships and CBD.
Demand grows nicely, but problems: (a) still only about 60,000 pax/day, much lower than expected and needed for this kind of investment so it raises subsidies; (b) demand is volatile due to industrial action – points to larger problems in SA economy
Do not have latest numbers but general trend = concern with costs. Capital and operating costs significantly higher than expected. Effect = reduced ability to expand service, questions being asked.
Capex: CPT R82m/km Phase 1 busways & statns; est R151m/km phase 2A
Cost recovery been improving, but still between 30 & 40%
Factors contributing to under-performance.
Related to choice of BRT corridors – not best suited to long-distance, low density township to CBD service.
Factors contributing to under-performance
Key imperatives are to
expedite roll-out of better PT;
figure out how to do more with available (and shrinking budget),
Demonstrate that PT is delivering wider policy value, incl restructuring cities