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Latest Issue of Week Ahead Newsletter 12Mar11

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Latest Issue of Week Ahead Newsletter 12Mar11

  1. 1. Short TermMarket Whispers Model Portfolio Technical Picks Pg.8 Pg.6 Pg.7 Top 5 Investment Buy Pg.3 WEEK Ahead AHEAD Dear Investor, So which is the bigger problem for global growth? Rising fuel prices or food prices? If you think that its oil because of the ongoing Middle East crisis, think again. True, oil prices have risen on account of unrest in that region. But the only scenario where oil will pose a much bigger threat to global growth is if the crisis spreads to Saudi Arabia. Also, higher oil prices would certainly dampen consumption, which will put downward pressure on prices at some point. Food is a different story altogether and is certainly a bigger threat to global growth. This is because food prices are widely expected to continue rising. This is partly on account of a recent spate of crop-damaging weather, and also due to rising living standards around the world having pushed up demand for meat. And poorer nations will feel the burden more as food accounts for a larger chunk of the household budget. Indeed, emerging markets are currently driving global growth led by their faster growing economies. But at the end of the day if there is not enough food to go around, this growth will not have much value. The sensex lost around 13% till March10 from the peak of 21,005pts on November 5 last years amid fears that rising commodity and crude prices will crimp profit for companies in the fourth quarter. The price to earnings multiples of sensex have already come down with the market corrections and brokerages are doing lot of deratings for the next two quarters as analyst say the current situation is similar to 2008 when the government had to contain inflation by rising interest rates. According to various brokerages sensex is commanding valuations of around 17 times forward earnings (down from 19 during the same period last year). But the price to earnings multiples of sensex if much higher than other global markets. The fourth quarter corporate earnings of companies which will start coming from next month will spring in more disappointments as the global crude prices is hovering at around $116 a barrel. "Stock speculation is largely matter of A trying to decide what B,C and D are likely to think with B,C and D trying to do the same thing" – Benjamin Graham Editor Ketaki Karnik Mar12 -18 Mar 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 1
  2. 2. Market Whispers A m ru tanjan fro m p ain b alm to b everages w o rld .T IG L is a G o vern m ent reco gnised exp o rt O ne o f Ind ia’s o ld est healthcare firm s ho use, w ith a glo b al m arket share in e xcess o f A m ru tanjan H ea lthcare, k no w n fo r its p ain b alm 4 0 % ,n a recent m o ve T IG L setup the 1 0 0 0 acre b y the sa m e na m e, ha s d iversified into the M aina k H ills T ea E state a nd G reen T ea facto ry b everages b usiness b y acq uiring C he nna i-b ased in N o rth B en gal. M ainak is c urrently p ro d ucin g S iva s S o ft D rink P vt L td ’s so ft d rin k a nd fruit- o ver 8 lak h k gs o f tea p er a nn u m a nd p ro d uctio n b ased b everages b usiness alo ng w ith the b rand is set to d o ub le o ver the co m in g year. F ruitnik fo r R s 2 6 .2 cro re.A m ru tanjan ’s e ntry into b evera ges w ill further sc ale up its b usine ss. ID B I B ank A m ru tanjan w as targetin g to tal reve nue s o f R s A rm ed w ith hig her cap ital ad eq uac y a fter the 1 2 4 crore in the fina ncial yea r end in g M arch ’1 1 in fu sio n o f fu nd s b y the go ve rn m e nt, ID B I B an k fro m 2 0 1 0 -1 1 fro m R s 9 6 cro re last year. It has m a na ged to p erfo rm in line w ith the secto r p articularly ho ld s a stro n g p o sitio n in the R s average b y clo cking 2 1 % Y o Y gro w th in 1 ,0 0 0 -crore p ain b alm m arket in the co untry ad vances in 9 m F Y 1 1 . F urthe r, in d o ing so , the b ank ha s p aid heed to m argin s w hic h ha ve B ajaj A uto In R ural G ear im p ro ved sign ifica ntly o ver the p ast 1 2 m o nth s, S tren gthe nin g rural d ealership reach and alb eit o n a very lo w b ase. ID B I has ind eed b een inno vative fina ncin g sc he m e is B ajaj A uto ’s first p articularly ag gressive in gro w in g its retail and step to w ard s increasing its m a rket share fro m the S M E ad vance p o rtfo lio s, w h ich ha ve gro w n at a p resent 2 7 % . T he co m p an y h as, in the la st tw o faster clip tha n that in m o st P S U b an ks, altho u g h m o nths, ap p o inted a reco rd 1 3 5 ne w d ealers in o n a lo w er b ase. sm all to w n s and m ini-m etro s, w here it had o nly 2 5 d ealers so far, exp and ing its d ealership K SB Pumps netw o rk to 6 2 0 . T his w ill va stly stre ng the n the T he co m p an y o p erates p red o m inantly thro u g h 2 co m p a n y’s rural p resence, a geo grap h y w h ich b usiness se g m ents viz. p u m p s and valves. T he generate s alm o st tw o -third s sales fo r d o m inan t 1 4 % gro w th in o verall reve n ues w as d rive n b y H ero H o nd a, co m m and ing 5 4 % m arke t share. the latter as it m a na ged a 4 4% Y o Y gro w th. T he p u m p s b usine ss, w hic h is aro und 4 tim es b ig ger IT C b iggest b ene ficiary than the va lve s seg m e nt m a naged a gro w th o f IT C has a d iversified re v enue m ix. F ro m just 8 % , th us p ullin g the o verall reven ue gro w th cigarette seg m e nt b eing the co re b usiness to d o w n. It sho u ld b e no ted that the co m p a n y F M C G se g m ent, ho tels, a gri a nd p ap er p ro d ucts. m ainly targets p ro ject b ased reven ues. T hu s, C igarette co ntrib utin g alm o st 5 0 % to the w ith ne w p ro jects slo w ing d o w n a b it, the reven ues fo llo w ed b y 2 0 % fro m F M C G , 1 4 % reven ue gro w th has no t b een as stro n g as fro m a gri, 1 1 % p ap er and p aper p ro d ucts and 5 % exp ected . H o w e ver, o nce the cap ex c ycle turns fro m H o tel se g m ent.IT C w ill b e b ig ge st fo r the b etter, co m p a n ys re ven ues sho uld also b eneficiary as e xcise d uty kep t u nto uc hed in receive a b o o st. b ud get S hiv V a ni O Il S esa G o a H igher e xp o rt d uty to im p act S hiv V a ni m a y re gistered a n E P S o f R s 4 7 in p ro fitab ility T he B ud get ha s p ro p o sed raising the F y1 1 and R s 5 5 in F Y 1 2 o n the b ack o f its exp o rt d uty o n iro n o re to ad valo rem 2 0 % o n exp ansio n. T his o il sec to r sh are is go in g c heap lu m p s a nd fine s.S esa G o a ge nerates ~ 9 0 % o f its w ith a P /E m ultip le o f just R s 4 .7 o n F Y 1 2 net sales fro m iro n o re exp o rts. H ence, the earnin gs nad fetc h 5 0 % a p p reciatio n in the B ud get p ro p o sal w o uld result in an increase in m ed iu m term . the co m p an y’s e xp o rt d uty e x p enses. S atha vaha na Isp at G arw are W all R o p e Intro d ucin g so m e ne w S IL is in the iro n and ste el ind ustry and is p ro d ucts like a gri net a nd co ated fab ric w hic h are enga ged in the m a nu factu ring o f p ig iro n likely to co ntrib ute o ver the n ext fe w years. G eo m etallurg ical co ke w ith co -g eneratio n p o w er in synthetics also exp ected to co ntrib ute w ell in F Y 0 9 . N et S ales zo o m ed 8 1 % w hile N et P ro fit canal linin g a nd co astal p ro tectio n b usine ss. zo o m ed 1 4 4 % o n nine m o nths b asis. Q uarterly E P S 4 .1 7 w hile the nine m o nth E P S 1 1 .6 6 . A t T & I G LO BA L LTD the C M P the sto ck is a vailab le at a fo rw ard P /E T IG l is o ne o f the lead ing m an u facturers and m u ltip le o f just 2 .8 exp o rters o f tea p ro cessing m achinery in the Mar12 -18 Mar 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 2
  3. 3. Top 5 Investment Buy S e c u r ity N a m e CMP T a rg e t U p s id e EPS P /E S e c to r S a m k r g P is t o n s 7 6 .4 84 10% 6 .6 9 .7 3 A u t o A n c illa r ie s S A M K R G tech n o lo g ica l a n d res ea rch ca p a city in term s o f p ro fe ssio n a l sk ills a n d re so u rc es en a b le m a n u fa ctu re o f a d v a n c ed P isto n s, P isto n s p in s / G u d g eo n P in s, P isto n R in g s & C irclip s to en d u re h ig h er th erm a l a n d m ech a n ical lo a d s. T h is is critical to en g in es b ein g m o re p o w e rfu l, efficien t a n d less p o llu tin g . M an u fa ctu rin g & m a rk etin g o f g o o d v a lu e, h ig h q u a lity a n d co st effe ctiv e p ro d u cts m e e tin g d o m estic a n d in tern a tio n al cu sto m er q u a lity req u irem en ts. C o m p a n y is h a v in g 3 p lan ts o n e in H y d era b a d & 2 in V ish ak a p a tn a m . F o r th e Q 3 F Y 1 1 , it re co rd ed n et sa les o f R s 4 7 cr w ith n et p ro fit o f rs 2 .4 0 cr a g a in st n et sa les o f R s 3 9 cr w ith n et p ro fit o f R s 1 .6 4 cr in Q 2 F Y 1 0 (N et sa les z o o m ed 2 1 .2 9 % w h ile n et p ro fit zo o m ed 4 6 .3 4 % o n a q u a rterly b a sis). F o r th e first n in e m o n th s o f F Y 1 1 , it rec o rd ed n et sa les o f R s 1 5 0 cr w ith n et p ro fit o f R s 7 c r a g a in st n et sa les o f R s 1 0 7 c r. (N et S a les z o o m ed 3 9 % w h ile n et p ro fit zo o m e d 6 1 % o n n in e m o n th b a sis). Q u a rte r E P S w a s R s 2 .4 4 w h ile first n in e m o n th s o f F Y 1 1 E P S is R s 7 .2 4 .A t th e cu rren t lev el th e sto ck is a v a ila ble a t a fo rw a rd P /E m u ltiple o f ju st 7 .6 . th e co m p a n y h a s b e en c o n sta n tly p a y in g divid en d s w ith 4 0 % in F Y 1 0 . S e c u r ity N a m e CMP T a rg e t U p s id e EPS P /E S e c to rD o lp h in o ffs h o r e 145 167 15% 2 9 .3 1 2 .9 2 O il D r illin g / A llie d S e r v ic e s DOEIL is global provider of integrated services to oil and gas industry with a diversified portfolio undertaking turnkey projects involving underwater,marine and offshore construction. Its key competitive strength in its ability to offore underwater services (divers,diving equipments etc) on water (ship and rig repairs,offshore support vessels etc) and above water (fabrication,installation etc). Over the years it has grown from diving and underwater business to an EPC sub contractor and is now main EPC contractor enabling to bid for high ticket projects. Primarily being a domestic player its cleintale include IOC and gas companies and EPC contractors such as ONGC, cairn Energy, L&T, Punj Lyold. Oil India, Essar Oil, HPCL, IOCL, Aban offshore, Seamec, SCI. DOEIL performed remarkably well till FY10 and achieved the highes erevr turnover of Rs 500cr mark. A large portion of revenues were earned from the two EPC contracts – NQD process and ICP which were awarded by ONGC.But at the same time its order book shrinks considerably as it did not win any EPC contracts. For the nine months FY11 revenue dropped by over 50% where PAT had crashed 75%. On the other hand with crude oil crossing $100 E&P activities are expected to be accelarte in the offshore Indian market.At present the order book stands at Rs 175cr. Mar12 -18 Mar 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 3
  4. 4. Top 5 Investment Buy S e c u r ity N a m e CMP T a rg e t U p s id e EPS P /E S e c to rL u p in 386 463 20% 7 0 .7 2 2 .9 8 P h a r m a c e u t ic a ls - Lu p in is en g a g ed in d ev elop in g an d m a rk etin g a w id e ra n g e of q u a lity a fford a b le g en e ric a n d b ra n d ed form u la tion s a n d A P I fo r th e d e v elop ed a n d d ev elop in g m a rk ets in th e w orld . In p h arm a th e com p a n y is in to b u lk d ru g s a n d form u la tion s, fe rm en ta tion s,b iotech n o log y ,n a tu ra l p rod u cts a n d a g ro ch em ica ls. Lu p in h a s w id e p rod u ct b a sk et of c om p risin g form u la tion s from C ep h a losp orin s C V S , C N S , A n ti A sh tm a , A n ti T B , d ia b etolog y , D e rm a tolog y its form u la tiosn m a n u fa ctu rin g fa cilities a re loca ted in M a h a ra sh tra ,M P , G oa a n d J& K . Its A P I fa cility situ a ted a t v a d od a ra a n d A n k lesh w a r. Lu p in h a s sig n ifica n t m a rk et sh a re in k ey m a rk ets in th e ca rd iov a s cu la r, D ia b etes, A sth m a , P a ed ia trics, C N S , G I, A n ti in fectiv es a n d N S A ID th era p y seg m en t n ot ot m en tion g lob al lea d ersh ip p osition in th e A n ti T B seg m en t. Lu p in glob al form u la tion s b u sin ess con stitu tes close to 8 4 % o f th e c om p a n y o v e ra ll b u sin ess m ix . F or F Y 1 0 Lu p in p osted con s olid a te n et sa les rev en u e of rs 4 7 4 0 cr w ith a n et p rofit of rs 6 8 1 cr n ettin g a b a sic E P S of 1 5 .8 4 . Q u a rter n et sa les R s 1 4 6 7 c r w ith a n et p rofit of R s 2 2 4 cr w ith a b a sic E P S of R s 5 D ec1 0 .Lu p in is a lm ost a d eb t free c om p a n y w ith retu rn on ca p ital of 2 5 .6 0 % a n d n etw orth 3 3 .2 3 % . A t its C M P its sh a re p rice d isc ou n t 0 9 -1 0 ea rn in g s of rs 1 5 .8 4 b y a rou n d 2 5 X . S e c u r ity N a m e CMP T a rg e t U p s id e EPS P /E S e c to rA m a r a R a ja 170 187 10% 1 9 .1 8 .5 8 E le c t r ic E q u ip m e n t Company revamped its corporate identity with a new brand image and an ambitious target of achiveving US $2bn (~9000cr) group revenue by 2015.Chalked out plans to set up a 500 acre Amara Raja Digital World City in Chittoor AP which will be one of the India largest integrated electronics manufacturing parks. With 26% equity from Johnson Control USA, the company is one of the largest manufactures of lead acid batteries and automotive applications in the Indian storage battery industry. Under the automotive division it caters across segments like passengers cars, MUV commercial vehicles motocycles and scooters. Its also commands a substantial market share in the replacement market. Under the industrial division its supplies batteries for Telecom infrastructure, UPS systems, railways and IT and banking segments. To enhance its market share the company has been regularly expanding capacity and its distribution network. For Q3FY11 its profit remained flat at rs 40cr on 15% higher sales of Rs 425cr. It is expected to register PAT of Rs 145-150cr for FY11 and EPS of rs 17 on its equity of Rs 17cr having face value of Rs 2 per share.At a reasonable discounting by 14x against forward earnings its share price can appreciate. Mar12 -18 Mar 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 4
  5. 5. Top 10 InvestmentBuy 5 Investment Buy S e c u r ity N a m e CMP T a rg e t U p s id e EPS P /E S e c to rH it e c h G e a r s 106 117 10% 1 8 .3 6 .4 7 A u t o A n c illa r ie s HTGL is an auto components manufacture of world class repute. Its serves deserve clients across the globe for engine and transmission components produced to the most exciting standards. Plants are located at Manesar at Gurgaon district at Haryana and at Bhiwadi in Rajasthan. Products include Precision forgings, 2 Wheeler Transmission compaonents, PTU Shafts and Engine & Transmission components. Hitech Robotic Systems. HTGL has technical tieups with Kyushu Musahi japan a subsidiary of Honda Motors and with Getrag Corp Germany. HTGL is one of the two preferred suppliers of transmission components to the Hero group and also currently enjoys a market shares of 50% in the Indian 2 Wheeler market. With Hero Honda expected to maintain its 2 wheeler market leadership for the next few years. HTGL is expanding its manufacturing capacity and is setting up a new plant in Bhiwadi in Rajasthan at a cost of Rs 50cr that would be operational by Q1FY12. It is also incurring capex to procure high precision machines for manufacturing components for its customers. With the new plant in pace it would be able to cater to rising demand. For FY10 HTGL posted 133% higher net profit at Rs 17.9cr on 10%.The EPS was Rs 9.1 and paid dividend of 45%. During Q3FY11 net profit catapulted by 138% by Rs 9.4cr on 47% higher sales of Rs 112cr. For the first nine months of FY11 net profit zoomed by 110% to Rs 24.9cr on 31% higher sales of Rs 308cr which gives a nine month EPS of Rs 13.2 Mar12 Oct 25, 2010 Dec 18 --Dect15, 2010 Oct 09 -18 Mar 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 1 5
  6. 6. Momentum Picks W e e k ly U p tre n d S c rip N a m e T re n d CMP S to p lo s s T a rg e tH IN D U N IL V R BUY 277 275 282P IP A V A V Y D BUY 80 76 76BHUSANSTL BUY 433 425 438P IR H E A L T H BUY 465 454 471G A IL BUY 442 438 446C A M L IN BUY 49 46 52TAKE BUY 35 32 38TATACHEM BUY 329 318 337KOUTONS BUY 32 31 33C EATLTD BUY 97 93 102IG L BUY 305 295 313E N G IN E R S IN BUY 296 290 299GSFC BUY 367 359 372A R IE S BUY 124 122 128X LEN ER G Y BUY 14 14 15D E C O L IG H T BUY 11 10 11G R EEN PLY BUY 170 166 173RAMANEW S BUY 18 18 18E L G IE Q U IP BUY 91 87 94 1 W e e k ly D o w n t r e n d S c r ip N a m e T ren d CMP S to p lo s s T a rg etTATASTEEL SELL 581 591 567BHEL SELL 1969 2017 1918SUNDARAM SELL 43 46 40G U L F O IL C O R SELL 78 81 76ID E A SELL 61 61 59AKSHOPTFBR SELL 6 6 5K W A L IT Y SELL 110 112 107MTNL SELL 44 45 42TTML SELL 15 16 15MANAPPURAM SELL 115 118 111RAYM O ND SELL 287 294 273J IN D A L S T E L SELL 650 659 635V IP IN D SELL 527 543 503P ID IL IT IN D SELL 136 139 131IN D IA N B SELL 216 223 207U FLEX SELL 137 140 133AQUA SELL 17 18 16G R A V IT A SELL 285 291 276SU JAN ATO W SELL 34 35 32 Mar12 -18 Mar 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 6
  7. 7. Model PortfolioEntryDate Scrip Name Weight(%) Reco.Price MBP Industry11-Mar KPR Mills 5.00% 167.00 175.35 Textiles - Products11-Mar Cox & Kings 5.00% 388.00 407.40 Travel Agencies11-Mar Automobile Corporation of Goa 5.00% 348.00 365.40 Auto Ancillaries Aluminium and Aluminium11-Mar Parekh Aluminex 5.00% 249.80 262.29 Products Transmisson Line Towers /11-Mar Jyoti Structures 5.00% 81.90 86.00 Equipment11-Mar Transport Corporation 5.00% 93.70 98.39 Miscellaneous11-Mar Finolex Cables 5.00% 47.70 50.09 Cables - Power11-Mar Sterlite Ind 5.00% 160.00 168.00 Mining / Minerals / Metals11-Mar Essar Oil 5.00% 118.00 123.90 Refineries11-Mar Ganesh Polytex 5.00% 63.80 66.99 Textiles - Processing Pharmaceuticals - Indian - Bulk11-Mar Smruthi Organics 5.00% 132.00 138.60 Drugs Telecommunications - Service11-Mar Tulip Telecom 5.00% 141.80 148.89 Provider Total 60.00% Portfolio Value 100000 Portfolio 60.00% Total 60.00% Portfolio Return Invested 60000 Gain / Loss RsFor Detailed Report on the above mentioned companyvisit www.bazaaredge.com/blogMar12 -18 Mar 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 8
  8. 8. This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. BazaarEDGE Advisory Services Pvt Ltd. BazaarEDGE is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. BazaarEDGE or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. BazaarEDGE or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non- infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations. BazaarEDGE and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency, BazaarEDGE has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. Disclosure of Interest Statement The BazaarEDGE Directors own shares in the following companies covered in this report: Nil BazaarEDGE has no broking relationships with the companies covered in this report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. BazaarEDGE reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time. Nevertheless, BazaarEDGE is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendations to its clients, and would be happy to provide information in response to specific client queries.Jan 29 - 04 Feb 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 11