This document discusses trends in social media and predictions for the future. Major platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and Snapchat are seeing declining daily active users in developed markets. Facebook is struggling to increase original sharing. Meanwhile, Instagram continues growing and may overtake other platforms. The dominance of the "social triumvirate" is ending as new platforms emerge and old ones are acquired or change their focus. More social activity will move to private groups and messaging apps. Brands need to diversify beyond top platforms and invest in influencer relationships outside of social media.

2. WHY FUTURE GAZE?
• Future proof our business
• Get ahead of the competition
• Avoid investing in areas that won’t pay off

3. HOW FUTURE GAZING WORKS
Look at past and current trends and how they are
evolving and apply that to an imagined future.

4. FACEBOOK
ZERO • 2012 Facebook restricted the organic reach of
content published from brand pages.
• December 2013 another round of changes
reduced organic reach even more
• By Feb 2014 organic reach hovered at 6%
JANUARY 11TH

5. 5
MARK ZUCKERBERG AT CONGRESS
APRIL 2018

8. PEAK SOCIAL
We have topped out on social media growth.
Facebook Daily Active Users Twitter Daily Active Users

9. • Facebook, Twitter and Snapchat all reported slowing or declining
users on the platforms, in developed markets.
• Facebook and Twitter cited the European Union's new privacy law,
GDPR, as contributing to declines.
• Facebook has been struggling to reverse a 21% decline in “original
sharing,” or personal updates, from its 1.6 billion monthly active
users.
• Facebook-owned Instagram and WhatsApp are still growing.-
Instagram has 1 billion monthly active users (as of June 2018).
(Source: CNBC August 2018)
PEAK SOCIAL

10. 10
IN 2019 INVEST
YOUR TIME IN
INSTAGRAM

11. The social channels matured, evolved, went public,
developed sophisticated paid advertising products and tried
to distinguished themselves from each other and respond to
incumbents.
This brings us to where we are now and to the future…
WHAT CHANGED?

13. THE END OF THE SOCIAL
TRIUMVIRATE AS WE KNOW THEM
• Disrupters become disrupted
• New incumbents - Instagram – some will be purchased and
absorbed into existing social channels – that will change the
social media ecosystem
• Twitter struggling with their identity – they reclassified
themselves as a media app, no longer a social network

14. GIRLBOSS COLLECTIVE – DISRUPTING
LINKEDIN – LAUNCHING JAN 2019
• Sophia Amoruso – founder Nasty Gal, Girlboss
• Just founded the Girlboss Collective (October
2018) – a community of support targeted at women
• Says LinkedIn was built for another era of work
• Girlboss will be a paid, professional social-
networking site Investment from Alexis Ohanian –
Co-founder of Reddit
“The word community used to make me queasy.
Now, it inspires me. Join us (and 15,000 others) for
early access at collective.girlboss.com.”
Sophia Amoruso

15. RISE OF NICHE SOCIAL NETWORKS
AND PRIVATE (DARK) SOCIAL
Where people connect
based on shared
interests – this is the
definition of community.
It’s what social media
promised but never
delivered on.

16. • More meaningful relationships, built on in-depth conversation
• More mature, thoughtful interactions
• Move away from ‘toxic’ nature of social media
• People will share in a private way, in smaller and niche private
groups
• For brands in a global context looking at local niche networks will
increase in importance
• Most social activity is no longer going to happen in public,
instead transitioning to private groups and messaging apps.
This represents a significant change in what “social media” is.
RISE OF NICHE SOCIAL NETWORKS
AND PRIVATE (DARK) SOCIAL

17. MESSAGING
APPS ARE
BIGGER THAN
SOCIAL MEDIA
(SINCE 2015)

18. DARK SOCIAL IS LARGER
THAN SOCIAL
GetSocial: Although
Facebook is still king on
specific and sporadic events
(check the graph for spikes),
Daily Referrals from Dark
Social surpassed Facebook’s
during July 2018.

19. DECLINE IN TRUST OF SOCIAL CHANNELS
RESULTING IN MORE REGULATION
• People trusted social networks until they gave us a reason
not to – 2018
• GDPR put a spotlight on data collection and privacy
• The Cambridge Analytica story really impacted the trust
people have in social networks
• Trust in social was an issue already in Jan 2018 – Edelman
Trust Barometer

20. GLOBALLY ONLY
41% OF PEOPLE
TRUST SOCIAL
MEDIA, ONLY
24% IN THE UK
2018 EDELMAN TRUST BAROMETER
WANTS BRANDS TO
PRESSURE SOCIAL
PLATFORMS TO
SAFEGUARD
PERSONAL DATA
71%

21. “Brands must act to
address data privacy
concerns, create trusted
content, and join forces
with regulators, platforms
and consumers to restore
trust in the social media
ecosystem.”
2018 EDELMAN TRUST BAROMETER
GLOBAL REPORT

22. TRUST ISSUES WITH
SOCIAL INFLUENCERS

23. PEOPLE TRUST THEIR
COMMUNITY
• Ask anyone who has a negative review on Amazon who their most important influencer is
• The phrase “Can anyone recommend” is tweeted 338 times a day.

24. • Facebook is a paid media channel
• The other social channels are following closely behind
• The impact in the medium term (3-5 years) will be a
decline in people posting on and using social channels
• New business models used by incumbents will challenge
this paid media model – e.g. Girlboss collective

25. • In the short term (1-3 years) invest in paid social (to
reach an audience not build an audience)
• Invest in talent that understands paid media so you’re
using sophisticated paid social techniques to maximise
your ROI
• Investing in the tools to measure the impact of paid
social, including multi-channel attribution.

26. 5G technology will enable the connectivity advances
in the Postsocial age.

27. FACEBOOK 10 YEAR PLAN

29. • Continue to use Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn but be ready to jump on
new opportunities (on and off those channels).
• There have been over 30 major algorithm changes on Facebook since 2016 –
are you keeping up to date with these?
Knowing the future is only useful if
you know what to do with it.
WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?
THE FUTURE OF SOCIAL
MEDIA IS HERE.

30. • Future-proof your social channel plan. You need to think beyond
Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and LinkedIn and look at other opportunities
for your brand. These may not be big opportunities today but more like seeds
that will grow over time.
• Dedicate 30% of your time to testing tactics on new and emerging social
channels and opportunities within existing channels like Facebook Messenger.
• Don’t build your house on rented land – build your own audience
THE FUTURE OF SOCIAL
MEDIA IS HERE.

32. • Twitter: @beatricewhelan
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/beatricewhelan/
Connect with me and tell me what
you think will happen in the
Postsocial age.