The document discusses the Canasat Project, which uses remote sensing satellite images to monitor sugarcane crops in Brazil. It summarizes the project's use of satellite data to estimate sugarcane area, identify expansion and renovation, track pre-harvest burning, and analyze land use change. Spatial-temporal analysis of MODIS images from 2000-2008 showed land use changes from pasture to agriculture to sugarcane. The project is also developing models and research to better understand indirect land use change from sugarcane expansion.

1. The Canasat Project
Remote Sensing Satellite Images for
Sugarcane Crop Monitoring
Thelma Krug (thelmakrug@dir.inpe.br)
Bernardo Rudorff (bernardo@dsr.inpe.br)
National Institute for Space Research – INPE
2o Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/
Bioethanol Production Cycle
Campinas, 11-12 November, 2009

2. Land‐use Change
• Amount, or area, of land converted?
– Remotely sensed data
• Loca:on of land use changes?
– Remotely sensed data
• Land types/biomes converted?
– Remotely sensed data and models (MODIS, CBERS, mixture
models)
• GHG emissions from land conversion?
– Good Prac3ce Guidance for LULUCF (IPCC)
– All carbon reservoirs, including soil
– Non‐CO2 emissions (fer3lizer use, field burning)

3. Satellite scenes for South-Central Brazil
Landsat-TM, CBERS-CCD & -HRC, DMC, IRS-P6 AWIFS, Terra MODIS, Rapideye

6. Sugarcane Area Es-ma-on
Annual updates on sugarcane expansion and
renova3on (old areas replaced by new areas)
São Paulo State – since 2003
• South‐Central – since 2005

7. 1
5
4
3 6
2
1
4
1
1 5 1
3
5
3
4 6
1
(a) (b)
Landsat image interpreted Thematic sugarcane map
1-Sugarcane 2-Citrus 3-Annual crop 4-Forest 5-Pasture 6-Others
Landsat-5 image from 24 April 2007 in São Paulo State - Color composition 4(R)5(G)3(B).

8. Sugarcane Expansion
(c) (d)
(a) 04/03/2006; (b) 11/09/2006; (c) 24/04/2007 e (d) 15/07/2007

9. Sugarcane Renovation
(a) Soybean (b) Bare soil (c) Sugarcane

12. Sugarcane area and annual growth rate from crop year 2005/06 to 2008/09
Annual growth rate %
Taxa anual de crescimento (%)
Área (1.000 ha)
Total area available for harvest Annual growth rate

14. Canasat ‐ Harvest

15. Sugarcane with and without pre‐harvest burning

16. Safra 2006/07

17. Safra 2007/08

18. Sugarcane Field Burnings
• Federal ini:a:ve (1999)
– Ban all sugarcane field burnings by 2021 in flat
terrain and by 2031 otherwise
• São Paulo State
– Ban in flat terrain by 2014 and otherwise by 2017
• 2007/2008 (mechanized harvest)
– 36% in Brazil
– 45% in São Paulo State

19. Land use classes prior to sugarcane expansion from
2005 to 2008 in São Paulo State

20. Land use prior to sugarcane expansion from
2005 to 2008 in São Paulo State

21. Land use classes prior to sugarcane expansion on 2007
and 2008 in the South‐Central Region

23. Spatial-temporal analysis of
land use cover change
using MODIS images
from 2000 to 2008
Overlayed
sugarcane map
Color Composition of Principal Components (1-R, 2-G, 3-B) derived from MODIS images
transformed to the vegetation fraction of a linear mixture model (Shimabukuro & Smith, 1991).

24. Spectral-temporal trajectory from 2000 to 2008 of MODIS images
indicating land use changes from pasture to sugarcane
Vegetation Fraction
Year
Pasture Sugarcane

25. Spectral-temporal trajectory from 2000 to 2008 of MODIS images
indicating land use changes from agriculture to sugarcane
Vegetation Fraction
Year
Agriculture Sugarcane

26. Spectral-temporal trajectory from 2000 to 2008 of MODIS images
indicating land use changes from pasture to agriculture to sugarcane
Vegetation Fraction
Year
Pasture Agriculture Sugarcane

28. iLUC
• S:ll under development
• Defini:ons (Gnansounou et al., 2008)
– Spa:al iLUC (displacement of prior produc:on to other
loca:on)
– Temporal iLUC (shi`ing land use in the same loca:on)
– Use iLUC (shi`ing biomass use in the same loca:on)
– Displaced ac:vity/use iLUC (avoiding land use change by
shi`ing previous ac:vity to other countries)

29. iLUC
• Addi:onal land may be happening despite
expansion of biofuels’ feedstock produc:on
• When expansion of biofuel’s feedstock takes
place in conjunc:on with expansion of
agricultural products for food produc:on it is
hard to prove effect‐cause rela:ons between
biofuel’s expansion and deforesta:on, for
instance.

30. iLUC
• Need for data to support the idea that sugarcane
expansion is leading to an increase in the land
produc:vity, rather than promo:ng incorpora:on on
new land for food produc:on, as grains and pasture
land are displaced.
• Strong increase in pasture produc:vity, measured by
stocking ra:o, make the Brazilian case a strong
example of how hard it is to empirically prove the
iLUC effect associated with the expansion of
sugarcane.

34. Projec:on of crops and pasture displacement by
sugarcane expansion (2008‐2018)

36. On‐going work
• Establishment of a Task Group on iLUC
– Research ins:tutes, academia, sta:s:cs ins:tu:ons,
Secretaries of Agriculture, Pasture
• Model’s development
– ICONE (Ins:tute for Trade and Interna:onal Nego:a:ons
Studies)
• Model is based on demand response to price changes and supply
response to market returns (profitability) changes.
• Na:onal and regional prices are calculated according to a basic
assump:on of microeconomics: they are achieved when supply
and demand prices for each coincide, genera:ng a market
equilibrium.