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55 Cambridge Parkway, Riverfront 2, Cambridge, MA 02142
Andrei Grskovic
Private Equity Activity In
Commercial Aviation
2017
2CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
CSP: Leading Provider Of Strategic & Transaction Advisory Services
0
20
40
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
#ofTransactions
Government Services
Defense
Aerospace
CSP Is Engaged In ~40-50 AD&G Transactions Each Year
CSP Associates has been engaged in more than 1,000 Aerospace, Defense & Government
Services (AD&G) transactions supporting more than 200 private equity sponsors, strategic
buyers, and institutional financing sources since 1990
CSP Exclusively Serves The AD&G Market
Buy-Side Commercial
Due Diligence
Sell-Side Vendor
Diligence Assessments
Strategic Advisory
Services
CSP Advises Leading Global Private Equity Investors and AD&G Contractors
3CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
Recent Transactions Illustrate CSP Leadership Position
Representative Recent Announced Transactions
CSP is relied upon by the leading corporate and private equity players in our served markets to support
strategically important transactions in the United States and Europe
 Recent announced transactions illustrate that CSP is engaged by the largest and most discerning private equity and corporate
players to advise on the most important transactions in our served markets
1st Commercial Aero
Acquisition By Largest Private
Equity Firm
Roll-Up Strategy Supporting
Most Active PE Investor in
Aerospace Since 2012
Largest European Acquisition
In 2015 By A Corporate Buyer
Largest European Aerospace
Transaction in 2015
25-Year Track Record Advising
The Leading Aerospace
Private Equity Investor
Acquisition Of The Leading
Provider Of Aviation
Materials Testing Services
Acquisition of Leading
Aeroengine Machined
Components Supplier
Largest Aerostructures
Acquisition in 2017 By A
Strategic Buyer
Acquisition of A Leading
Distributor of Military & Civil
Spare Parts
4CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
48%
29%
52%
71%
Commercial
Aero
Defense &
Gov't Svs.
Services the focus of Defense/Government Services activity; hardware focus in Commercial Aero
Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
AD&G M&A Activity Has Remained Relatively Constant
57
69 76 72 80
65
74
77 63 67
102
94
89
119
65 79
78
78
220
265
204 218
260
237
0.0X
4.0X
8.0X
12.0X
16.0X
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
TEV/EBITDA(Public)
M&AVolume
Gov't Service Defense Commercial Aero
AD&G M&A Volume: 2011-2016 (Completed Transactions)
Source: DACIS, CSP M&A database, CapitalIQ, Janes Capital Partners, Aronson Capital Partners
Public TEV/EBITDA
By Buyer Type
2016 M&A Volume
Strategic
PE
By Segment
Airframe
26%
Engines
20%
Distri-
butor
6%
Interiors
6%
Electrical
6%
Flight
Control
5%
Other
31%
Cyber /
Intel
31%
IT
Services
30%
Tech.
Services
19%
C4ISR
11%
Cloud /
Data
Analytics
3%
Other
6%
5CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
0 10 20 30 40 50
# of Transactions
Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
Only Several Major Private Equity Firms Focused On AD&G
Most M&A activity in the market driven by firms that have made <5 AD&G acquisitions
Most Active PE Firms (AD&G Closed Transactions, 2000-2016) # of PE Firms Active In AD&G (2000-2016)
Commercial Def. & Gov’t
Kanders & Co
Rest
Source: DACIS, CSP M&A database
~340 Firms 4 6 26
313
>20 10-20 5-9 <5
# of Firms By # Transactions
~350 Private Equity firms have
been active in the Commercial
Aerospace, Defense and
Government Services market
since 2000
Only 10 Private Equity firms
have acquired more than 10
AD&G companies
6CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
56
41 42
33
37
41
47
39
43
33
28
35
46 45 45 44
34
3
7 4
7
12
11
15
21 15
8
14
22
23
31
27
36
31
59
48
46
40
49
52
62
60
58
41 42
57
69
76
72
80
65
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Airbus&BoeingProduction
M&AVolume(CommercialAero)
Increased activity since 2011 driven by attractive growth dynamics and long-term visibility
Strategic
Financial
Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
Commercial Aero Ramp-Up Has Supported Elevated Levels Of M&A
Source: DACIS, Ascend, Boeing & Airbus, CSP M&A database
Commercial Aero M&A Volume & Production (2000-2016)
Production
M&A Volume
7CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
0.0x
3.0x
6.0x
9.0x
12.0x
15.0x
18.0x
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EV/EBITDA(LTM)
Airbus&BoeingOrdersPrivate Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
Commercial Aviation Multiples Historically Correlated To Orders
Private valuations are well above historic peaks but likely to moderate as order cycle softens
Commercial Aviation Orders v. Transaction Multiples (EV/EBITDA)
Orders
Avg. Multiple
(Private): 9.9x
EV/EBITDA
Source: CapitalIQ, DACIS, Ascend, public filings, CSP estimates *transaction multiples not exhaustive
Public Valuations (TEV/EBITDA LTM)
Average Private Valuation
Private Valuations (TEV/EBITDA LTM)
Public valuations
Private valuations
Avg. Multiple
(Private): 8.9x
Avg. Multiple
(Private): 11.2x
8CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
>250
>250
<50
<50
<100
<90
<75
<50
NA NA$1
$5
$8
$8
$9
$10
$15
$56
$64
Systems/Other
ECS
Electrical Power
Flight Controls
Landing Gear
Interiors
Avionics
Engine
Airframe
Recent deal activity concentrated in the largest and most fragmented aviation segments
Commercial Aviation Market Segments ($B, Estimates)
Source: DACIS, CSP M&A database, Airframer, Counterpoint, Bank Of America/Merrill Lynch 1 Excludes OEMs 2Aftermarket excludes Line Maintenance *# of suppliers derived from Airframer directory
OE Segment Characteristics
# of
Suppliers
45%
1
26%
1
58%
70%
62%
58%
OE Aftermarket2
90%
70%
Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
Aerostructures & Engine Segments Have Seen Most M&A Activity
Top 5 Suppliers Share
(%)
M&A Volume (2006-16)
17
2
5
12
1
8
4
47
80
39
5
13
24
3
27
27
68
129
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
PE Strategic
Includes applications that
cross segments e.g.,
fittings, tubes/pipes, pumps,
valves, ducting etc.
9CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
<50
>150
>200
NA NA
<50$6
$13
$14
$21
Distribution/Logistics*
Other
Aftermarket Services
Engine & Systems
Component Repair
Airframe MRO
Engine MRO
Consolidation of distributors has been a key focus of Private Equity recently
Commercial Aviation Market Segments ($B, Estimates)
Source: DACIS, CSP M&A database, TeamSAI 1Aftermarket excludes Line Maintenance; services not exhaustive 2Airframe/Engine MRO exclude repairs *Not included in commercial aviation market sizing (C-Class)
Segment Characteristics
# of
Suppliers
55%
70%
23%
OE Aftermarket1
50%
Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
Most Fragmented Service Segments Also Seeing Elevated Activity
Top 5 Suppliers Share
(%)
M&A Volume (2006-16)
23
6
11
13
8
26
15
31
22
16
1
2
3
4
5
PE
Strategic
Includes miscellaneous aftermarket services
including modifications, paint, USMs, asset
managers, etc.
2
2
10CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
$0
$200
$400
$600
EstimatedAcquiredRevenue($M)Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
Activity Since 2012 Partially Driven By Roll-Up Strategies
Most active PE firms executing on roll-up strategies, consolidating fragmented segments
Volume
Top 10 Most Active PE Firms By Volume (2012-2016)
Norbert
Carlyle has
acquired over
$1B since 2012
8 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
Source: DACIS, CSP M&A database, CSP analysis, CapitalIQ
Concentration of M&A Activity:
Roll-Up v. Stand-Alone (2012-16)
Roll-
Up
41%
Stand-
Alone
59%
11CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
Successful PE Exits To Strategic Buyers Supports Further PE Interest
Increased volume of PE exits to strategic buyers since 2011; strategic interest driving premium multiples
PE-Backed Exits To Strategic Buyers (2006-16, Est. Value $M)
21
15
13
10 9 9
7 6
PCC Triumph Transdigm AMETEK HEICO Senior Zodiac B/E
A.M. Castle/
Transtar
Cooper/
G&H
GKN/
Stellex
UTC/Page
Meggitt/
K&F
PCC/
Cherry
Eaton/
Argo-Tech
Chemring/
Scot
Goodrich/
TEAC
DCO/
DynaBil
Zodiac/
Driessen
Boeing/
Vought
Praxair/
Sermatech
B/E /
TSI
TDG/
McKechnie
Triumph/
Vought
Beacon/
TECT
ESL/
Souriau
Zodiac/
Heath Tecna
PCC/
Primus
TDG/
Schneller
Airbus/
PFW
L&P/
W. Pneumatic
LMI/
Valent
PCC/
Centra
PCC/
Synchronous
PCC/
Klune
RTI/
Remmele
Senior/
GAMFG
TDG/
AmSafe
ESL/
CMC
Heico/
Reinhold
Collins/
Arinc
GE/
Avio
Senior/
Thermal
Alcoa/
Firth Rixson
Cobham/
Aeroflex
HAECO/
TIMCO
LISI/
Manoir
PCC/
ADI
PCC/
Permaswage
Standex/
Enginetics
Sumitomo/
Vaupell
Triumph/
NAAS
PCC/
CHI
Aemetek/
Fine Tubes
Auctus/
Shimtech
Kaman/
Gebr.
Meggitt/
EDAC Comp.
PCC/
Noranco
SIFCO/
C*Blade
Solvay/
Cytec
AVIC/
Align
GKN/
Fokker
TDG/
Pexco
VSE/
Killick
AVIC/
AIM
Figeac/
Auvergne
KLX/
Herndon
Mercury/
CESAstronics/
Aerosat$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Est.TransactionValue($M)
Key Strategic
Consolidators
Structures
Engines
Interiors
Actuation
Systems
Aftermarket
Elec. Power
+
Size of bubble represents Price:Sales Ratio1.5x
Source: DACIS, CSP M&A Database *Closed transactions
PE
Strategic
12CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
Varying Strategies Across Largest Consolidators
Leading PE consolidators building segment-specific platforms; structures & engines garnering most interest
StrategicPrivateEquity
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Leading Consolidators
Aerostructures Platform
Composites Platform
NorbertEngine Machining/
Fabrications (Exited)
Fluid Conveyance
Engine Machining/
Fabrications
Distribution (Wesco)
PMA / Component
Repairs
Engine Castings Platform
Aerostructures Platform
Source: DACIS, CSP M&A database
13CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
7 2 6 6
Trend towards larger transactions though <$50M transactions comprise majority of activity
Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
Size Of Commercial Aviation Transactions Increasing
Acquisitions By Transaction Size (Volume)
Strategic
Private
Equity
2000-2004 2005-2010 2011-2016
Source: DACIS, CSP M&A Database *Closed transactions; only transactions with reported transaction price
12 3 6 10 8 4 11 8
80 15 15 10
<$50M $50-100M
$100-$500M >$500M
64 27 28 14 55 15 43 27
50%32%
21%
57% 52%
61%
14CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
PE Activity In The Segment Has Historically Been US-Centric
Activity in the US likely to continue to be focal point for PE; emerging players in China gaining interest
Source: DACIS *Closed transactions 1Pending
PE Exits To Mostly US Buyers Historically (Buyer Domicile)*
2012-16:
61
2007-11:
23
2
8
32007-11
2012-16
3
2
2007-11
2012-16
1
2012-16
42012-16
2
2012-16
12012-16
1 2012-16
1
2012-16
Non-US Activity (2012-16)
1
1
1 1
2012-16
15CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
OEM
Influence
Supplier
Disruptions
Scale
Cost Reduction
Assignability
Clauses
Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
OEMs Increasingly Have More Say In PE Consolidation Activity
‘Assignability’ clauses increasingly being leveraged by OEMs to reduce risk
1
2
3
4
1
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
US Tier 1
Structures Supplier
(Bankruptcy)
European Tier 2
Engine/Structures
Supplier
(Investment By RR)
European Tier 2
Structures Supplier
(Covenant Breach)
US Super Tier 1
Structures Supplier
(Facility Acquired By
Boeing)
European Tier 1 Fluid
Conveyance Supplier
(Acquired by Airbus)
European Tier 1
Structures
Supplier
(Investment by Airbus)
200
90
A380 (2007) A350 (2015)
250
140
75
Trent 500
(1999)
Trent 900
(2007)
Trent 1000
(2011)
Estimated # of Suppliers (EIS)
2
3
4
16CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017
Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation
Lowest Book:Bill Since 2010; Likely End To Order Super Cycle
Downturn in orders likely to pressure multiples and activity over next few years
557
301 250 247 264
908 747 835
468
215 375
773
1,269
1,514 1,487
863 787
326
262 296 244 344
696
595
767
438
266
599
1,522
734
1,519
1,807
1,258
673
1.2x
0.7x
0.8x 0.9x
1.0x
2.4x
1.6x
1.8x
1.1x
0.5x
1.0x
2.3x
1.7x
2.4x 2.4x
1.5x
1.1x
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
NetOrders
Historical Ordering Trends (Net Orders)1
Book:Bill
Re-engined
A320/B737
introduced
B787 &
A350
introduced
B787-10 & B777X
introduced
59
48 46
40
49 52
62 60 58
41 42
57
69
76
72
80
65
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
M&AVolume
Commercial Aero M&A Volume (2000-2016)
Source: DACIS, CSP M&A database, Ascend, Boeing, Airbus
 Subsiding replacement
demand and large fleet orders
already in backlog resulting in
softening ordering trends
 Airbus sees ~30% fewer orders
in 2017 (~1,000 net orders or
~0.6x book:bill)
 Softness most pronounced in
the widebody segment,
specifically for mature
platforms (e.g., A330, B777)
 Boeing CEO doesn’t see a
recovery in widebody orders
until the start of the next decade
 Lower ordering trends
combined with OEM planned
production rate hikes reducing
backlog cushion
 Transaction volume has also
begun to decline, with deal flow
in Q1 2017 showing signs of
slowing further

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Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation - 2017 Overview

  • 1. 55 Cambridge Parkway, Riverfront 2, Cambridge, MA 02142 Andrei Grskovic Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation 2017
  • 2. 2CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation CSP: Leading Provider Of Strategic & Transaction Advisory Services 0 20 40 60 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 #ofTransactions Government Services Defense Aerospace CSP Is Engaged In ~40-50 AD&G Transactions Each Year CSP Associates has been engaged in more than 1,000 Aerospace, Defense & Government Services (AD&G) transactions supporting more than 200 private equity sponsors, strategic buyers, and institutional financing sources since 1990 CSP Exclusively Serves The AD&G Market Buy-Side Commercial Due Diligence Sell-Side Vendor Diligence Assessments Strategic Advisory Services CSP Advises Leading Global Private Equity Investors and AD&G Contractors
  • 3. 3CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation Recent Transactions Illustrate CSP Leadership Position Representative Recent Announced Transactions CSP is relied upon by the leading corporate and private equity players in our served markets to support strategically important transactions in the United States and Europe  Recent announced transactions illustrate that CSP is engaged by the largest and most discerning private equity and corporate players to advise on the most important transactions in our served markets 1st Commercial Aero Acquisition By Largest Private Equity Firm Roll-Up Strategy Supporting Most Active PE Investor in Aerospace Since 2012 Largest European Acquisition In 2015 By A Corporate Buyer Largest European Aerospace Transaction in 2015 25-Year Track Record Advising The Leading Aerospace Private Equity Investor Acquisition Of The Leading Provider Of Aviation Materials Testing Services Acquisition of Leading Aeroengine Machined Components Supplier Largest Aerostructures Acquisition in 2017 By A Strategic Buyer Acquisition of A Leading Distributor of Military & Civil Spare Parts
  • 4. 4CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 48% 29% 52% 71% Commercial Aero Defense & Gov't Svs. Services the focus of Defense/Government Services activity; hardware focus in Commercial Aero Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation AD&G M&A Activity Has Remained Relatively Constant 57 69 76 72 80 65 74 77 63 67 102 94 89 119 65 79 78 78 220 265 204 218 260 237 0.0X 4.0X 8.0X 12.0X 16.0X 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TEV/EBITDA(Public) M&AVolume Gov't Service Defense Commercial Aero AD&G M&A Volume: 2011-2016 (Completed Transactions) Source: DACIS, CSP M&A database, CapitalIQ, Janes Capital Partners, Aronson Capital Partners Public TEV/EBITDA By Buyer Type 2016 M&A Volume Strategic PE By Segment Airframe 26% Engines 20% Distri- butor 6% Interiors 6% Electrical 6% Flight Control 5% Other 31% Cyber / Intel 31% IT Services 30% Tech. Services 19% C4ISR 11% Cloud / Data Analytics 3% Other 6%
  • 5. 5CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 # of Transactions Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation Only Several Major Private Equity Firms Focused On AD&G Most M&A activity in the market driven by firms that have made <5 AD&G acquisitions Most Active PE Firms (AD&G Closed Transactions, 2000-2016) # of PE Firms Active In AD&G (2000-2016) Commercial Def. & Gov’t Kanders & Co Rest Source: DACIS, CSP M&A database ~340 Firms 4 6 26 313 >20 10-20 5-9 <5 # of Firms By # Transactions ~350 Private Equity firms have been active in the Commercial Aerospace, Defense and Government Services market since 2000 Only 10 Private Equity firms have acquired more than 10 AD&G companies
  • 6. 6CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 56 41 42 33 37 41 47 39 43 33 28 35 46 45 45 44 34 3 7 4 7 12 11 15 21 15 8 14 22 23 31 27 36 31 59 48 46 40 49 52 62 60 58 41 42 57 69 76 72 80 65 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 0 20 40 60 80 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Airbus&BoeingProduction M&AVolume(CommercialAero) Increased activity since 2011 driven by attractive growth dynamics and long-term visibility Strategic Financial Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation Commercial Aero Ramp-Up Has Supported Elevated Levels Of M&A Source: DACIS, Ascend, Boeing & Airbus, CSP M&A database Commercial Aero M&A Volume & Production (2000-2016) Production M&A Volume
  • 7. 7CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 0.0x 3.0x 6.0x 9.0x 12.0x 15.0x 18.0x 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EV/EBITDA(LTM) Airbus&BoeingOrdersPrivate Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation Commercial Aviation Multiples Historically Correlated To Orders Private valuations are well above historic peaks but likely to moderate as order cycle softens Commercial Aviation Orders v. Transaction Multiples (EV/EBITDA) Orders Avg. Multiple (Private): 9.9x EV/EBITDA Source: CapitalIQ, DACIS, Ascend, public filings, CSP estimates *transaction multiples not exhaustive Public Valuations (TEV/EBITDA LTM) Average Private Valuation Private Valuations (TEV/EBITDA LTM) Public valuations Private valuations Avg. Multiple (Private): 8.9x Avg. Multiple (Private): 11.2x
  • 8. 8CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 >250 >250 <50 <50 <100 <90 <75 <50 NA NA$1 $5 $8 $8 $9 $10 $15 $56 $64 Systems/Other ECS Electrical Power Flight Controls Landing Gear Interiors Avionics Engine Airframe Recent deal activity concentrated in the largest and most fragmented aviation segments Commercial Aviation Market Segments ($B, Estimates) Source: DACIS, CSP M&A database, Airframer, Counterpoint, Bank Of America/Merrill Lynch 1 Excludes OEMs 2Aftermarket excludes Line Maintenance *# of suppliers derived from Airframer directory OE Segment Characteristics # of Suppliers 45% 1 26% 1 58% 70% 62% 58% OE Aftermarket2 90% 70% Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation Aerostructures & Engine Segments Have Seen Most M&A Activity Top 5 Suppliers Share (%) M&A Volume (2006-16) 17 2 5 12 1 8 4 47 80 39 5 13 24 3 27 27 68 129 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 PE Strategic Includes applications that cross segments e.g., fittings, tubes/pipes, pumps, valves, ducting etc.
  • 9. 9CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 <50 >150 >200 NA NA <50$6 $13 $14 $21 Distribution/Logistics* Other Aftermarket Services Engine & Systems Component Repair Airframe MRO Engine MRO Consolidation of distributors has been a key focus of Private Equity recently Commercial Aviation Market Segments ($B, Estimates) Source: DACIS, CSP M&A database, TeamSAI 1Aftermarket excludes Line Maintenance; services not exhaustive 2Airframe/Engine MRO exclude repairs *Not included in commercial aviation market sizing (C-Class) Segment Characteristics # of Suppliers 55% 70% 23% OE Aftermarket1 50% Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation Most Fragmented Service Segments Also Seeing Elevated Activity Top 5 Suppliers Share (%) M&A Volume (2006-16) 23 6 11 13 8 26 15 31 22 16 1 2 3 4 5 PE Strategic Includes miscellaneous aftermarket services including modifications, paint, USMs, asset managers, etc. 2 2
  • 10. 10CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 $0 $200 $400 $600 EstimatedAcquiredRevenue($M)Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation Activity Since 2012 Partially Driven By Roll-Up Strategies Most active PE firms executing on roll-up strategies, consolidating fragmented segments Volume Top 10 Most Active PE Firms By Volume (2012-2016) Norbert Carlyle has acquired over $1B since 2012 8 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Source: DACIS, CSP M&A database, CSP analysis, CapitalIQ Concentration of M&A Activity: Roll-Up v. Stand-Alone (2012-16) Roll- Up 41% Stand- Alone 59%
  • 11. 11CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation Successful PE Exits To Strategic Buyers Supports Further PE Interest Increased volume of PE exits to strategic buyers since 2011; strategic interest driving premium multiples PE-Backed Exits To Strategic Buyers (2006-16, Est. Value $M) 21 15 13 10 9 9 7 6 PCC Triumph Transdigm AMETEK HEICO Senior Zodiac B/E A.M. Castle/ Transtar Cooper/ G&H GKN/ Stellex UTC/Page Meggitt/ K&F PCC/ Cherry Eaton/ Argo-Tech Chemring/ Scot Goodrich/ TEAC DCO/ DynaBil Zodiac/ Driessen Boeing/ Vought Praxair/ Sermatech B/E / TSI TDG/ McKechnie Triumph/ Vought Beacon/ TECT ESL/ Souriau Zodiac/ Heath Tecna PCC/ Primus TDG/ Schneller Airbus/ PFW L&P/ W. Pneumatic LMI/ Valent PCC/ Centra PCC/ Synchronous PCC/ Klune RTI/ Remmele Senior/ GAMFG TDG/ AmSafe ESL/ CMC Heico/ Reinhold Collins/ Arinc GE/ Avio Senior/ Thermal Alcoa/ Firth Rixson Cobham/ Aeroflex HAECO/ TIMCO LISI/ Manoir PCC/ ADI PCC/ Permaswage Standex/ Enginetics Sumitomo/ Vaupell Triumph/ NAAS PCC/ CHI Aemetek/ Fine Tubes Auctus/ Shimtech Kaman/ Gebr. Meggitt/ EDAC Comp. PCC/ Noranco SIFCO/ C*Blade Solvay/ Cytec AVIC/ Align GKN/ Fokker TDG/ Pexco VSE/ Killick AVIC/ AIM Figeac/ Auvergne KLX/ Herndon Mercury/ CESAstronics/ Aerosat$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Est.TransactionValue($M) Key Strategic Consolidators Structures Engines Interiors Actuation Systems Aftermarket Elec. Power + Size of bubble represents Price:Sales Ratio1.5x Source: DACIS, CSP M&A Database *Closed transactions PE Strategic
  • 12. 12CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation Varying Strategies Across Largest Consolidators Leading PE consolidators building segment-specific platforms; structures & engines garnering most interest StrategicPrivateEquity 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Leading Consolidators Aerostructures Platform Composites Platform NorbertEngine Machining/ Fabrications (Exited) Fluid Conveyance Engine Machining/ Fabrications Distribution (Wesco) PMA / Component Repairs Engine Castings Platform Aerostructures Platform Source: DACIS, CSP M&A database
  • 13. 13CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 7 2 6 6 Trend towards larger transactions though <$50M transactions comprise majority of activity Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation Size Of Commercial Aviation Transactions Increasing Acquisitions By Transaction Size (Volume) Strategic Private Equity 2000-2004 2005-2010 2011-2016 Source: DACIS, CSP M&A Database *Closed transactions; only transactions with reported transaction price 12 3 6 10 8 4 11 8 80 15 15 10 <$50M $50-100M $100-$500M >$500M 64 27 28 14 55 15 43 27 50%32% 21% 57% 52% 61%
  • 14. 14CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation PE Activity In The Segment Has Historically Been US-Centric Activity in the US likely to continue to be focal point for PE; emerging players in China gaining interest Source: DACIS *Closed transactions 1Pending PE Exits To Mostly US Buyers Historically (Buyer Domicile)* 2012-16: 61 2007-11: 23 2 8 32007-11 2012-16 3 2 2007-11 2012-16 1 2012-16 42012-16 2 2012-16 12012-16 1 2012-16 1 2012-16 Non-US Activity (2012-16) 1 1 1 1 2012-16
  • 15. 15CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 OEM Influence Supplier Disruptions Scale Cost Reduction Assignability Clauses Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation OEMs Increasingly Have More Say In PE Consolidation Activity ‘Assignability’ clauses increasingly being leveraged by OEMs to reduce risk 1 2 3 4 1 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 US Tier 1 Structures Supplier (Bankruptcy) European Tier 2 Engine/Structures Supplier (Investment By RR) European Tier 2 Structures Supplier (Covenant Breach) US Super Tier 1 Structures Supplier (Facility Acquired By Boeing) European Tier 1 Fluid Conveyance Supplier (Acquired by Airbus) European Tier 1 Structures Supplier (Investment by Airbus) 200 90 A380 (2007) A350 (2015) 250 140 75 Trent 500 (1999) Trent 900 (2007) Trent 1000 (2011) Estimated # of Suppliers (EIS) 2 3 4
  • 16. 16CSP Associates – Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation2017 Private Equity Activity In Commercial Aviation Lowest Book:Bill Since 2010; Likely End To Order Super Cycle Downturn in orders likely to pressure multiples and activity over next few years 557 301 250 247 264 908 747 835 468 215 375 773 1,269 1,514 1,487 863 787 326 262 296 244 344 696 595 767 438 266 599 1,522 734 1,519 1,807 1,258 673 1.2x 0.7x 0.8x 0.9x 1.0x 2.4x 1.6x 1.8x 1.1x 0.5x 1.0x 2.3x 1.7x 2.4x 2.4x 1.5x 1.1x 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 NetOrders Historical Ordering Trends (Net Orders)1 Book:Bill Re-engined A320/B737 introduced B787 & A350 introduced B787-10 & B777X introduced 59 48 46 40 49 52 62 60 58 41 42 57 69 76 72 80 65 0 20 40 60 80 100 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 M&AVolume Commercial Aero M&A Volume (2000-2016) Source: DACIS, CSP M&A database, Ascend, Boeing, Airbus  Subsiding replacement demand and large fleet orders already in backlog resulting in softening ordering trends  Airbus sees ~30% fewer orders in 2017 (~1,000 net orders or ~0.6x book:bill)  Softness most pronounced in the widebody segment, specifically for mature platforms (e.g., A330, B777)  Boeing CEO doesn’t see a recovery in widebody orders until the start of the next decade  Lower ordering trends combined with OEM planned production rate hikes reducing backlog cushion  Transaction volume has also begun to decline, with deal flow in Q1 2017 showing signs of slowing further