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America's Budget Outlook

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America's Budget Outlook

  1. 1. CRFB.org
  2. 2. CRFB.org Trillion Dollar Deficits Return By 2020 Source: CBO April 2018 Baseline $413 billion $1.4 trillion $665 billion $1.0 trillion $1.5 trillion $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Billions 2
  3. 3. CRFB.org 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Debt Held by the Public Percent of GDP Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data. 105% 96% 3 50-Year Average Debt=41%
  4. 4. CRFB.org Debt Will Grow Significantly Over the Long Term Percent of GDP Source: Congressional Budget Office, CRFB calculations 150% 192% 148% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 Alternative Fiscal Scenario Current Law Estimate 4 50-Year Average Debt=41%
  5. 5. CRFB.org 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Projected The Gap Between Revenue and Spending Will Grow Percent of GDP Spending Revenue Alternative Revenue Alternative Spending Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data. 5
  6. 6. CRFB.org Interest Spending Will Approach $1 Trillion Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data. $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Current Law Alternative Fiscal Scenario Billions $915 $817 $774 $570 $702 $316 $263 $992 $864 $739 $643 $485 $390 6
  7. 7. CRFB.org What’s Driving Higher Deficits? 7
  8. 8. CRFB.org $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 2017 Tax Bill Deficit Absent Recent Legislation Other Legislation $440 billion $540 billion FY2019 Deficit 55% of Next Year’s Deficit is Due to Recent Legislation Source: CBO, CRFB Calculations Billions 2018 Budget Agreement 2015 Doc Fix & Extenders $981 billion 8
  9. 9. CRFB.org Tax Law Costs, After Dynamic Scoring Billions Source: Congressional Budget Office. Includes economic effects of the tax bill and debt service. Costs could be greater if other business tax increases scheduled in the law are prevented from occurring $165 $233 $295 $319 $308 $298 $286 $283 $259 $321 $365 -$50 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2017 Tax Law Extend Expiring Tax Provisions 9
  10. 10. CRFB.org Annual Growth Rate Change from the Tax Bill 10 Average Annual Growth Rate Boost Estimating Organization In 1st Year Over 10 Years Congressional Budget Office 0.3 0.06 Joint Committee on Taxation -- <0.02 Moody's Analytics 0.4 0.04 Macroeconomic Advisors 0.1 0.02 Tax Policy Center* 0.8 -0.00 International Monetary Fund 0.3 -0.01 Goldman Sachs 0.3 0.07 Tax Foundation 0.4 0.29 Penn Wharton Budget Model -- 0.06-0.11 Claim-“For the bill to pay for itself” 0.4 0.4 Source: Congressional Budget Office and the listed organizations. *Tax Policy Center numbers are given for fiscal years; other organizations are calendar year.
  11. 11. CRFB.org Billions $1,043 $988 $1,012 $1,014 $1,067 $1,070 $1,208 $1,244 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 March 2011 Baseline BCA Caps Sequester-Level Caps The BBA Busted the Original BCA Caps, Gave Both Sides More than They Asked For Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data. 11
  12. 12. CRFB.org The Omnibus Spread The Money Around 12
  13. 13. CRFB.org Social Security, Health Care, And Interest Explain 82% of Spending Growth 2018-2028 Spending Growth Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data. Numbers may not add due to rounding Net Interest 21% Social Security 27% Medicare 23% Medicaid/ACA/CHIP 10% Other Mandatory 7% Defense 5% Non-Defense Discretionary 6% 13
  14. 14. CRFB.org 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% Revenue Discretionary Other Mandatory Social Security Health Care Interest Current Law Alternative Fiscal Scenario +34% +55% +33% +89% +96% +248% +278% +66% Long-Term Deficits Are Still Rising Mainly Due to Health, Retirement, and Interest Spending Inflation based on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data. Nominal Spending Growth 2017-2028 +46% GDP: 55% Inflation: 25% 14
  15. 15. CRFB.org Trillions over 10 years Note: Includes interest savings. For balancing the budget by 2028, non-interest savings are assumed to follow the same path as the FY 2018 House budget but delayed one year. Total savings required to balance the budget in 2028 could be higher or lower depending on the particular deficit reduction path. Source: CRFB calculations based on CBO and House Budget Committee data. Deficit Reduction Needed to Meet Fiscal Goals $5.4 ~$7 $8.0 ~$10 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 Stabilize the Debt at 2018 Level Balance the Budget by 2028 Current Law Alternative Fiscal Scenario 15

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