4. CRFB.org
Fiscal Space Was Declining
“Fiscal Space” under Debt-to-GDP Reaching Record Levels
4
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
5. CRFB.org
Trillion-Dollar Deficits Were Projected to Return by 2022
Billions
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
$665
$563
$689
$775
$879
$1.0T $1.1T $1.1T
$1.2T
$1.4T
$1.5T
$1.6T
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Prior Law
5
23. CRFB.org
And Included Some Gimmicks…
23
Empty BA
$3.7B
Spending
Delays
$13.3B
$17.0 Billion of Fake CHIMPS
$0B
$20B
$40B
$60B
$80B
$100B
Defense OCO:
$66.1B
State OCO: $12.0B
AdditionalDisaster:$7.4B
$85.4 Billion in New Uncapped BA
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
24. CRFB.org
Long-Term Deficits Are Still Rising Mainly Due to Health,
Retirement, and Interest Spending
2017-2028 Nominal Dollar Spending Growth
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
+35% +29%
+88%
+98%
+267%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Discretionary Other Mandatory Social Security Health Care Interest
24
25. CRFB.org
25
Social Security, Health Care, And Interest
Explain 82% of Spending Growth
Interest
22%
Social Security
27%Medicare
24%
Medicaid/ACA/CHIP
9%
Other Mandatory
7%
Defense
6%
Non-Defense
Discretionary
7%
2018-2028 Spending Growth
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
26. CRFB.org
Health and Social Security Will Consume More of the Budget
26
Discretio
nary
6.3%
Individual
Income
8.3%
Social
Security
4.9%
Payroll
6.1%
Health
Care
5.3%
Corporate: 1.5%
Other
Mandator
y
2.9%
Other:
1.4%
Interest:
1.4% Deficit:
3.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Spending Revenue
2017
Discretio
nary
5.5%
Individual
Income
9.9%
Social
Security
6.1%
Payroll
5.9%
Health
Care
6.9%
Corporate: 1.4%
Other
Mandator
y
2.5%
Other:
1.4%
Interest
3.3% Deficit
5.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Spending Revenue
2028
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
28. CRFB.org
Projected Deficits If Lawmakers Extend Debt-Busting Policies
Billions
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
$665
$753
$1.1T
$1.3T
$1.4T
$1.5T $1.6T $1.6T
$1.8T
$2.0T
$2.2T
$2.4T
28
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Prior Law Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Bipartisan Budget Act & Other Changes Alternative Scenario
29. CRFB.org
Our Alternative Scenario Projects Far More Debt
29
Debt in Dollars Debt as Share of GDP
Updated Baseline Debt Projections for 2028 $29.4 trillion 101%
Continue Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as written in 2019 +$1.1 trillion +3.6%
Extend budget caps in Bipartisan Budget Act +$1.4 trillion +4.9%
Extend other expiring legislation +$525 billion +1.8%
Extend defunding of ACA cost sharing reductions +$210 billion +0.7%
Net interest effect of above policies +$365 billion +1.2%
Alternative Scenario Debt Projections $33.0 trillion 113%
Memo: Increase in 2028 Debt Due to Extensions $3.6 trillion +12%
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
30. CRFB.org
Projected Debt If Lawmakers Extend Debt-Busting Policies
Percent of GDP
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
93%
113%
101%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
Alternative Scenario
Prior Law
30
31. CRFB.org
Spending Growth If Lawmakers Extend Debt-Busting Policies
2017-2028 Nominal Dollar Spending Growth
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
+35% +29%
+88%
+98%
+267%
+51%
+29%
+88%
+100%
+301%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
Discretionary Other Mandatory Social Security Health Care Interest
Current Law Alternative Scenario
31