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Budgeting for the Next Generation: Children and the Federal Budget

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Budgeting for the Next Generation: Children and the Federal Budget

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Budgeting for the Next Generation: Children and the Federal Budget

  1. 1. CRFB.org
  2. 2. CRFB.org 18.0% 11.6% 9.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Age 65 and older Under age 18 Ages 18 to 64 Poverty Rates By Age Group Children Face Greater Needs and Offer More Potential for Economic Growth than Any Other Age Group Source: Census Bureau 2
  3. 3. CRFB.org 3 Yet Children Fare Poorly in the Federal Budget
  4. 4. CRFB.org The Federal Government “Spends” Less Than $500 billion on Kids Sources: Urban Institute and CRFB calculations. Totals may not sum due to rounding. Totals for FY2016. Billions 4 Source of Support
  5. 5. CRFB.org Kids Spending Only A Tenth of the Federal Budget Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Urban Institute, National Priorities Project, and CRFB calculations. Totals for FY2016. 5
  6. 6. CRFB.org 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Spending on Children as a Share of Outlays Support for Children as a Share of Resources 3.2% 7.8% 10.7% 10.3% Children’s Spending Was a Growing Share of the Budget Until 2010 Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Urban Institute, National Priorities Project, and CRFB calculations. Tax expenditure data is not easily available prior to 1975. 6 Percent of Federal Budget
  7. 7. CRFB.org 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Spending on Children as a Share of Outlays Support for Children as a Share of Resources Percent of Federal Budget Actual Projected 2010: 10.7% 2010: 10.3% 9.4% 8.7% 6.9% 6.6% Since 2010, Children’s Spending Declining as a Share of Budget Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Urban Institute, National Priorities Project, and CRFB calculations. 7
  8. 8. CRFB.org 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Spending on Children Support for Children 1.8% 0.6% 3.1% Percent of GDP Children’s Spending Also Peaked in 2010 As a Share of GDP Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Urban Institute, and CRFB calculations. 8 2.5%
  9. 9. CRFB.org 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Spending on Children Support for Children Actual Projected 2.5% 2.0% 2010: 3.1% 2010: 2.5% 2.1% 1.6% Percent of GDP And Now Continues to Decline, Over Time Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Urban Institute, and CRFB calculations. 9
  10. 10. CRFB.org The Long-Term Outlook for Children is Especially Troubling Percent of Federal Spending Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Urban Institute, and CRFB calculations. 6.3% 10.7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Actual Projected 10
  11. 11. CRFB.org We’re Also Leaving Our Children a Massive Debt Burden 2048: 152% 2008: 39% 2018: 78% 2048: 210% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 Percent of GDP Sources: Congressional Budget Office, CRFB calculations Current Law Alternative Fiscal Scenario 11
  12. 12. CRFB.org $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Interest Spending Spending on Children Support for Children Actual ProjectedBillions Interest exceeds spending on children by 2020 Interest exceeds support for children by 2021 $482 $375 $263 $915 $667 $509 Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Urban Institute, CRFB calculations. We’ll Soon Spend More Servicing the Past Than Investing in the Future 12
  13. 13. CRFB.org And It’s Only Going to Get Worse 1.9% 6.3% 6.2% 5.9% 2.5% 2.6% 4.2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Spending on Children Interest Social Security (Adults) Medicare (Adults) Medicaid and Other Health (Adults) Defense (Adults) Other Spending (Adults) 2048 Spending as Percent of GDP Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Urban Institute, and CRFB calculations. 13
  14. 14. CRFB.org 14 Children Are Disadvantaged In the Federal Budget Process
  15. 15. CRFB.org 15 Programs for Adults/Seniors • Medicare and Medicaid • Social Security • Unemployment Insurance • Mortgage Interest Deduction Programs for Children • Children’s Health Insurance Program • Temporary Aid for Needy Families • K-12 Education and Head Start • Child Tax Credit Spending on Children vs. Spending on Adults
  16. 16. CRFB.org 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Seniors All Adults Children Children-Specific Programs 43.4% 19.0% 6.5%2.9% Share of 2017 Federal Transfer Spending On Each Age Group That Is Discretionary Spending on Children is More Often Discretionary Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Office of Management and Budget, Urban Institute, and CRFB calculations. 16
  17. 17. CRFB.org Program Share to Children Authorization/Appropriation Length Average Longest K-12 Education 100% 2 months 1 year Head Start 100% 2 months 1 year CHIP 95% 3 years 10 years TANF 77% 7 months 6 years SNAP/Food Stamps 44% 1 year 6 years Medicaid 25% Permanent Permanent Social Security 2% Permanent Permanent Medicare 0% Permanent Permanent Unemployment 0% Permanent Permanent Sources: Urban Institute, Congressional Budget Office, Congressional Research Service, CRFB estimates. Notes: Table shows lesser of appropriation or authorization period. Averages cover about two decades. TANF and SNAP data begin in 1996, CHIP data in 1997, and K-12 Education and Head Start data are based on average length of Labor-HHS-Education appropriations since 1997. Spending on Children is More Often Temporary 17
  18. 18. CRFB.org 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Seniors All Adults Children Children-Specific Programs 60.6% 37.2% 10.2% 3.9% Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Office of Management and Budget, Urban Institute, and CRFB calculations. Spending on Children is More Often Capped Share of Transfer Spending with a Fixed Budget 18
  19. 19. CRFB.org Spending on Children Lacks Built-In Growth Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Office of Management and Budget, Urban Institute, and CRFB calculations. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Seniors All Adults Children Children-Specific Programs 6.3% 5.4% 2.4% 2.3% Average Annual Growth of Projected Spending from 2017 to 2028 19
  20. 20. CRFB.org Elderly 71% Non-Elderly Adult Transfers 23% Infrastructure 4% Children 2% Spending on Children Lacks Dedicated Revenue Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Office of Management and Budget, Urban Institute, and CRFB calculations. Where Dedicated Revenue Goes By Age Group, 2017 20
  21. 21. CRFB.org 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 57% 153% Current Law Elderly Spending Flat as a Share of GDP 82% Underfinanced Spending on Adults Is Leaving Kids a Huge Burden Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Office of Management and Budget, Urban Institute, and CRFB calculations. Debt-To-GDP Ratio Under Different Scenarios 21
  22. 22. CRFB.org 22 Possible Solutions
  23. 23. CRFB.org Key Questions  What budget process (or concepts) reforms could level the budgetary playing field for kids?  What legislative and executive rules, structures, and norms could be changed to assure better focus on kids?  What programmatic changes can improve outcomes for kids, especially those with the most need or potential to promote growth (remember, we like fiscal responsibility!)?  How can we better draw attention to the needs of kids in the political and policymaking process?  How can the federal government ensure it devotes an adequate share of resources to children while also reducing the fiscal burden we impose on them? 23
  24. 24. CRFB.org Some Ideas… Account for Children  Estimate and Highlight Children’s Spending in Budget Projections  Use “Incremental Budgeting” to Show How Spending Grows for Different Groups  Require Government to Calculate Benefits and Liabilities by Age Group Budget for Children  Use Portfolio Budgeting to Think about Children Comprehensively  Reform Appropriations Process to Include a Subcommittee for Children  Set a Target for Children’s Spending 24
  25. 25. CRFB.org Some Ideas… Prioritize Children  Establish and Hire a Children’s Commissioner or Ombudsman  Create a Select Committee on Children  Send Taxpayers “Interest Statements” on Behalf of Their Children Improve Policies for Children  Make CHIP Permanent and Establish a Regular Review for All Health Spending  Establish a Dedicated Revenue Source for Certain Children’s Spending  Re-Think Default Indexation of Federal Programs and Provisions 25
  26. 26. CRFB.org

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