A Fiscal Guide to the 2016 Election

1. CRFB.org

2. CRFB.org
Debt Under Candidates’ Proposals (Percent of GDP)
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Trump Range
Clinton Range
Clinton Central Estimate
Trump Central Estimate
Current Law
127%
87%
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
2

3. CRFB.org
$1.20 $1.40
$0.05
-$0.25
-$10.50
-$0.65
$1.70
-$11.50
-$14
-$12
-$10
-$8
-$6
-$4
-$2
$0
$2
$4
Revenue Primary Spending Interest Surplus/Deficit (-)
Clinton Trump
Ten-Year Change in Fiscal Metrics Under Our Central Estimates (Trillions)
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
3

4. CRFB.org
18.1% 18.6%
13.6%
4.0% 4.1%
9.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Revenue Spending Interest Deficit
Current Law Clinton’s Proposals Trump’s Proposals
Ten-Year Spending, Revenue, and Deficits Under Our Central Estimates
(Percent of GDP)
Source: CRFB calculations, CBO projections.
Note: Spending and revenue calculations are based on CBO’s 10-year projection of cumulative GDP between 2017-2026
22.1% 22.5%22.7%
4

5. CRFB.org
Key Findings Under Central Estimates for Each Candidate (2017-2026)
5
Read the Paper Here

6. CRFB.org
Details of Their Plans
6

7. CRFB.org
Summary of Candidates’ Policy Proposals (Cost/Savings (-))
+<0.5%
7
Read the Paper for More Details about Their Plans

8. CRFB.org
The
Candidates,
Side by Side
8

9. CRFB.org
Interest Is Fastest Growing Category Under Both Candidates
22%
44%
84% 93%
276% 280%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
Discretionary
Spending
All Other
Mandatory
Social
Security
Health Care Interest Clinton
Interest
Trump
Interest
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office projections.
445%Percent Change 2015 to 2026
9

10. CRFB.org
What Would It Take
to Get Debt Under Control?
10

11. CRFB.org
Attaining Fiscal Sustainability Under the Candidates’ Plans
6%
27%
15%
37%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Clinton Trump
Cuts Needed
2.9%
5.4%
4.7%
10.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Clinton Trump
Growth Needed
+3.5%
+17.5%
+8.5%
+20.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Clinton Trump
Tax Hikes Needed
Percentage Point Tax IncreasePercent Cut in 10-Year Spending Annual Real GDP Growth
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Stabilize the Debt Balance the Budget
Projected
Growth:
2.1%

12. CRFB.org
Real Economic Growth Rate Needed Under Our Central Estimates
(Annual Average Real GDP Growth)
2.3%
4.6%
2.9%
5.4%
4.7%
10.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Current Projected Growth: 2.1%
Source: CRFB calculations based on dynamic feedback projections from Tax Foundation for revenue and CBO for immigration reform
and ACA repeal. | *We assumed growth sufficient to maintain currently law debt-to-GDP ratio of 86 percent by 2026, although
nominal debt levels will still increase. | Note: For stabilize the debt, we assumed $2.6 trillion of non-interest savings relative to
current law (the equivalent of $2.9 trillion with interest), enough based on current GDP projections to achieve a debt-to-GDP ratio
of 75 percent by 2026. For balance the budget, we assumed $7.8 trillion of deficit reduction over 10 years to account for interest.
Pay for Proposals* Stabilize the Debt Balance the Budget
12

13. CRFB.org
Spending Cuts Needed Under Our Central Estimates
(Percent of All 10-Year Primary Spending)
< 1%
22%
6%
27%
15%
37%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Pay for Proposals Stabilize the Debt Balance the Budget
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office projections. For stabilize the debt, we assumed $2.6 trillion of
non-interest savings relative to current law (the equivalent of $2.9 trillion with interest), enough based on current GDP
projections to achieve a debt-to-GDP ratio of 75 percent by 2026. For balance the budget, we assumed $6.8 trillion of non-
interest savings over a decade relative to current law (the equivalent of $7.8 trillion with interest), enough to balance the budget
using the path from the 2015 House Budget Resolution. The actual 10-year savings to balance could differ substantially based on
how policies are implemented.

14. CRFB.org
Spending Cuts Needed, Exempting Social Security & Medicare,
Under Our Central Estimates
(Percent of 10-Year Primary Spending, Excluding Social Security & Medicare)
< 1%
39%
11%
50%
28%
67%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Pay for Proposals Stabilize the Debt Balance the Budget
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office projections. For stabilize the debt, we assumed $2.6 trillion of
non-interest savings relative to current law (the equivalent of $2.9 trillion with interest), enough based on current GDP
projections to achieve a debt-to-GDP ratio of 75 percent by 2026. For balance the budget, we assumed $6.8 trillion of non-
interest savings over a decade relative to current law (the equivalent of $7.8 trillion with interest), enough to balance the budget
using the path from the 2015 House Budget Resolution. The actual 10-year savings to balance could differ substantially based on
how policies are implemented.

15. CRFB.org
<25.5%
22.5%
28.5% 27.5%
33.5%
30.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Tax Rate Needed Assuming Across-the-Board Hikes Under Our Central Estimates
(Percentage Point Tax Rate, Individual Making $50,000)
Pay For Proposals Stabilize the Debt Balance the Budget
Source: CRFB calculations of statutory marginal income tax rate for an individual with $50,000 in adjusted gross income.
Option assumes equal percentage point increase in every tax bracket, but no change in liability for Trump’s “zero tax
bracket” (individuals making under $25k, couples under $50k).
Candidate Policy Increasing Rates Across the Board to Hit Target
+17.5%
+8.5%
+20.5%
+12.5%
+<0.5%
+3.5%
15

16. CRFB.org
Tax Increases on High Earners Needed Under Our Central Estimates
(Percentage Point Tax Rate, Individuals Making over $5 million)
Pay For Proposals Stabilize the Debt Balance the Budget
Source: CRFB calculations of statutory marginal income tax rate for an individual with $5 million in adjusted gross
income. Note: “high earners” includes all those making above $250,000. Option assumes equal percentage point
increase in tax brackets above 33 percent (roughly $231,000 for a couple in 2016).
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
45%
64%
IMPOSSIBLE
IMPOSSIBLE
IMPOSSIBLE
IMPOSSIBLE
Candidate Policy Increasing Rate on High Earners to Hit Target
+1%
+20%

17. CRFB.org
Additional Tables and Graphs
17

18. CRFB.org
Summary of
Hillary Clinton’s
Major
Campaign
Proposals
14

19. CRFB.org
Summary
of Donald
Trump’s
Major
Campaign
Proposals
16

20. CRFB.org
College
Education
$350 billion
Early Ed & Child Care
$200 billion
Other
Spending
$250 billion
Infrastructure
$300 billion
Paid Leave
$300 billion
Composition of Clinton’s New Spending Under
Our Central Estimate (Billions)
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
20

21. CRFB.org
Individual Statutory Tax Rates Under Candidates’ Plans
Statutory marginal ordinary income tax rates for a married couple filing jointly. Includes the standard
deduction and personal exemption. Sources: IRS, Trump campaign, Clinton campaign, CRFB calculations
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
$0 $50k $100k $150k $200k $250k $300k $350k $400k $450k $500k $5M $5.05M
Current Law
Clinton's Tax Plan
Trump's Tax Plan
21

22. CRFB.org
Read the full report,
Promises and Price Tags, at CRFB.org
22