Adaptation to Climate Change: How Developing Countries Should Approach Adaptation Under the UNFCCC Negotiation?

ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
How Developing Countries Should
Approach Adaptation Under the
UNFCCC Negotiation?
Ahsan Uddin Ahmed
ED, Centre for Global Change (CGC) and
Member, IPCC

Ahsan Uddin Ahmed <ahsan.ua@gmail.com>
Workshop on Climate Change Negotiations Jointly organized by MOERE, Sri Lanka and CANSA, Colombo, Sri Lanka, 23 May 2014
ADAPTATION
Any activity/approach that addresses one or more
contexts of vulnerability
•addressing poverty reduction
•addressing livelihood enhancement/ strengthening
•creating access to resources, power structure
and/or infrastructure
•enhancing access to food, health care, shelter …
(prior to, during and after a hazard/disaster)
•creating/strengthening access to knowledge
(education/information, warning)
•creation of options & alternatives

Adaptation
The process of adjustment in nature or human
systems in response to actual or expected climate
stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or
exploits beneficial opportunities.
Not much can be done outside the country
It is very location-specific
Internationally what can we think of Adaptation?
Technology transfer (south-south)
Capacity building
Financing
Nationally?

Development & Adaptation
Development should ideally help humanity,
irrespective of differences & diversity
If not designed well, development activities may
not result in reducing human vulnerability
Development malpractices often aggravate
prevailing contexts of vulnerability
Creation of winners and losers
Issues related to benefit distribution

Results of development
might also be subjected to
adverse effects of CC
Without taking into
consideration implications of
climate change, if
development plans are
devised and investments are
made, the projected benefit
streams might never be
realized/achieved
Development & Adaptation

LIVELIHOOD SECURITY & ADAPTATION
Enhancing quantity & quality of livelihood assets
Creating access to livelihood resources/assets
• Advocacy
• Lobbying for pro-poor policy shift
Removing risks to livelihood failure
Reducing risks to livelihoods
Enhancing coverage and quality of LH services

DISASTER RISK REDUCTION & ADAPTATION
Eliminate/reduce risks of occurrence of disaster
Change the prevailing/projected geophysical context
Playing with extent of a hazardous event
• spray chemicals to force rainfall (!!?)
Change sensitivity to a hazard (of similar extent)
• return period modulation (e.g., excavation of a rivulet)
• increase crest height of a coastal embankment
• change planting schedule so that the system becomes resilient
• increase in plinth height of a railway track at risk of drowning

Adaptation in UNFCCC Landscape
1. Marrakech Accord (COP 7)
Year 2001
 Prepare and implement
National Adaptation
Programme of Action
(NAPA) for Least
Developed Countries (LDC)
 Establishment of Least
Developed Country Fund
(LDCF)
2. Bali Road Map (COP 13/CMP 3)
- Year 2007
 Adaptation as one of the
building block of Bali Action
Plan(BAP) - Mitigation,
Adaptation, finance and
technology transfer.
 Prioritize the vulnerable
developing countries as LDC,
SIDs and Africa.
 Creation of Adaptation Fund it’s
Board, Trustee and Secretariat.

3. Copenhagen Accord (COP 15/
CMP 5) - Year 2009
 Global Temperature should
be below 2o
C and should
consider the long tem goal in
relation to temperature rise
of 1.5o
C.
 Establishment of Green
Climate Fund (GCF).
 Short tem finance of 30
billion (2010- 2012)
 Long term finance for 100
billion annually by 2020
4. Cancun Conference (COP 16/
CMP 6)- Year 2010
 Adopted Cancun Adaptation
Framework (CAF)
I. National Adaptation Plans
(NAPs)
II. Establish Adaptation
Committee (AC)
III. Work Program on Loss and
Damage
Adaptation in UNFCCC Landscape (contd.)

5. Durban Platform (COP
17/ CMP 7)- Year 2011
 Adopt a draft guidelines
for the formulation of
National Adaptation Plan
(NAPs)
 Decide Composition of
and modalities and
procedures for the
Adaptation Committee
under the authority of and
accountable to the COP.
6. Warsaw Conference (COP 19/
CMP 9) – 2013
 Warsaw International
Mechanism on Loss and
Damage.
 Loss and Damage – A new
reality, Third pillar of the
negotiation.
 Limits to adaptation.
Adaptation in UNFCCC Landscape (contd.)

Adaptation Finance
1. Raising Adaptation Finance under GCF
Part of 100 Billion $ annually starting 2020
2. Direct access and Grant basis (No Loan!)
3. No Co-financing
4. New and additional to existing ODA Commitments
5. Channel through UNFCCC Mechanism.
Future
Adaptation
Funding
Needs
World Bank
(2006)
Stern Review
(2006)
Oxfam (2007) UNDP
(2007)
UNFCCC
(2007)
Project
Catalyst
World
Bank
(2009)
9 – 41 Billions 4 – 37 Billions 50 Billions 47 – 109
Billions
28 – 67
Billions
67 -77
Billions
75 -100
Billions
Adaptation
Funding
SCCF LDCF AF PPCR Total
Available Now 222 Millions 506 Millions 271 Millions 805 Millions 1.8 Billions

1. Adaptation as an Integral part of 2015
agreement
2. Adoption of Global goal on Adaptation
3. Means of Implementation – Adaptation
Finance, Technology Transfer and Capacity
Building.
4. Loss and Damage – New Reality.
Adaptation into 2015 agreement

THANK YOU
VERY MUCH

Adaptation to Climate Change: How Developing Countries Should Approach Adaptation Under the UNFCCC Negotiation?

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Adaptation to Climate Change: How Developing Countries Should Approach Adaptation Under the UNFCCC Negotiation?