The Construction unemployment rate continues to drop significantly and the Dodge Momentum Index jumped in June. The Dodge Index is a measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
1. 0
5
10
Construction Backlog
Indicator
By the
Numbers:
Construction Owner
Confidence Index
Unemployment Rate
Housing Permits & Starts
(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
(Producer Price Index)
(U.S. Census Bureau)
(Associated Builders & Contractors/1st Quarter 2016)
(Associated Builders & Contractors/2nd Half of 2015)
Readings above 50 indicate growth
NonresidentialConstructionMaterialPrices
NonresidentialConstructionSpending
Overall
Current Month
SALES EXPECTATIONS
TOTAL PERMITS TOTAL STARTS
PROFIT MARGIN
EXPECTATIONS
STAFFING LEVEL
INTENTIONS
1 yr. Earlier
Construction
Construction Vital Statistics
fell from 69.4 to 67.0
edged lower from 62.9 to 62.8
dipped from 66.2 to 63.9
Current Month:
1.5% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: -13.6%
Current Month:
4.8% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: -2.0%
8.6 vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 8.4
June 2016
at a Glance
Current Month: 1.2% Year-over-year change: -2.6%
May 2016: -1.3% Year-over-year change: 1.2%
4.9% 5.3% 4.6% 6.3%
2. www.cbiz.com/construction1-800-ASK-CBIZ |
1. Reading above 50 indicate growth, while readings below 50 are unfavorable.
2. Any Architecture Billing Index Score above 50 signifies growth - it is a leading economic indicator that provides an
approximately nine to 12 month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.
3. It is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been
shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. Since reaching bottom in July 2011
at a level of 77.1 (2000=100), the index has been trending up.
4. Rates as of mid month.
Construction Backlog Indicator (Months)
Current Backlog 8.7 8.6
Backlog from a year ago 8.7 8.4
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
Construction Owner Confidence Index1
Sales Expectations 69.4 67.0
Profit Margin Expectations 62.9 62.8
Staffing Level Intentions 66.2 63.9
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
National Unemployment Rate
Overall current month 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 4.7% 4.9%
Overall from twelve months earlier 5.7% 5.5% 5.5% 5.4% 5.5% 5.3%
Construction current month 8.5% 8.7% 8.7% 6.0% 5.2% 4.6%
Construction from twelve months earlier 9.8% 10.6% 9.5% 7.5% 6.7% 6.7%
(Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS)
Housing Permits and Starts
National
Permits - Total -0.2% -3.1% -7.7% 3.6% 0.7% 1.5%
Permits - Total from twelve months earlier 13.5% 6.3% 4.6% -5.3% -10.1% -13.6%
1 - Family - change from previous month -1.6% 0.4% -1.2% 1.5% -2.0% 1.0%
1 - Family - change year over year 9.6% 16.8% 13.2% 8.4% 4.8% 5.1%
5 + Units - change from previous month 1.1% -9.1% -20.6% 9.4% 6.7% 1.9%
5 + Units - change year over year 17.9% -9.7% -12.4% -25.3% -29.3% -35.8%
Starts - Total -3.8% 5.2% -8.8% 6.6% -0.3% 4.8%
Starts - Total from twelve months earlier 1.8% 30.9% 14.2% -1.7% 9.5% -2.0%
1 - Family - change from previous month -3.9% 7.2% -9.2% 3.3% 0.3% 4.4%
1 - Family - change year over year 3.5% 37.0% 22.6% 4.3% 10.1% 13.4%
5 + Units - change from previous month -2.5% 2.4% -8.5% 10.7% 1.3% 1.6%
5 + Units - change year over year -3.8% 16.8% 0.3% -12.9% 10.0% -23.6%
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
Nonresidential Construction Material Prices
Current Month -0.8% -0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2%
Change year over year -2.7% -3.8% -3.5% -3.1% -3.5% -2.6%
(Producer Price Index - PPI)
Nonresidential Construction Spending
Previous Month -0.4% 2.5% -1.4% -0.4% -2.1% -1.3%
Change year over year 8.3% 12.3% 10.1% 8.3% 2.5% 1.2%
(U.S. Census Bureau)
AIA - Architecture Billing Index2
49.6 50.3 51.9 50.6 53.1 52.6
Dodge Momentum Index - Commercial Building3
123.3 124.1 124.7 123.4 133.4 143.6
Interest Rates4
I-Month LIBOR 0.4255% 0.4313% 0.4363% 0.4374% 0.4426% 0.4527%
WSJ Prime Rate 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
5 Year US Treasury Rate 1.23% 1.50% 1.22% 1.26% 1.10% 1.15%
10 Year US Treasury Rate 1.78% 1.97% 1.76% 1.75% 1.60% 1.60%
Jan. ‘16 Feb. ‘16 Mar. ‘16 Apr. ‘16 May ‘16 Jun. ‘16
4th Qtr. ‘15
1st 1/2 ‘15
June 2016 at a Glance
2nd 1/2 ‘15
1st Qtr. ‘16