The 
IPCC’s Fift 
h 
Assessme 
nt Report 
What’s in it 
for Africa? 
Key findings
Africa’s climate 
is already 
changing 
● Since the 1950s, the rate of global warming has 
been unprecedented compared to ...
Africa’s climate 
is already 
changing 
● African surface temperatures have already 
increased by 0.5–2ºC over the past 10...
Climate impacts 
are already 
being felt 
● Incidence of malaria 
● Wheat production and productivity of other 
crops 
● P...
Observed impact 
of climate 
change in Africa
Further climate 
change is 
inevitable in the 
coming decades 
● Regardless of future emissions, we are already 
committed...
Future impacts 
of global 
warming 
Observed and projected global annual 
average temperature 
Global risks under increasi...
Future climate 
trends for Africa 
– overview
North Africa 
future climate 
trends
East Africa 
future climate 
trends
South Africa 
future climate 
trends
West Africa 
future climate 
trends
Climate change 
poses 
challenges to 
growth and 
development in 
Africa 
● Recent economic gains have been in climate-sen...
Adaptation will 
bring immediate 
benefits and 
reduce the 
impacts of 
climate change 
in Africa 
Carefully planned adapt...
Adaptation can 
reduce the risks 
of climate 
change 
Compounded stress on 
water resources facing 
significant strain fro...
Adaptation can 
reduce the risks 
of climate 
change 
Reduced crop 
productivity associated 
with heat and drought 
stress...
Adaptation can 
reduce the risks 
of climate 
change 
Changes in the 
incidence and 
geographic range of 
vector- and wate...
Adaptation is 
fundamentally 
about 
risk managemen 
t 
“In many cases, we are not prepared for 
the climate-related risks...
Adaptation 
experience 
in Africa 
is growing 
Many African countries are working to integrate 
adaptation into developmen...
Promoting 
ambitious global 
action 
● In order to limit global warming to less than 2ºC, 
total emissions from human acti...
Some low-carbon 
development 
options may be 
less costly in the 
long run and 
could offer new 
economic 
opportunities f...
Africa stands 
to benefit from 
integrated 
climate 
adaptation, 
mitigation and 
development 
approaches 
Many sustainabl...
Africa stands 
to benefit from 
integrated 
approaches 
Many sustainable development pathways combine 
climate adaptation,...
International 
cooperation is 
vital to avert 
dangerous 
climate change 
and African 
governments 
can promote 
ambitious...
“International cooperation is required 
to effectively mitigate greenhouse gas 
emissions and address other climate 
chang...
Download resources 
including infographics and slides: 
www.cdkn.org/ar5-toolkit 
Find the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment 
Report...
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What's in it for Africa? Key findings from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report

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This presentation, What's in it for Africa? Key findings evaluates what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report has to say about the future of Africa's climate in a series of innovative infographics, key facts, statements and images.

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What's in it for Africa? Key findings from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report

  1. 1. The IPCC’s Fift h Assessme nt Report What’s in it for Africa? Key findings
  2. 2. Africa’s climate is already changing ● Since the 1950s, the rate of global warming has been unprecedented compared to previous decades and millennia. ● The IPCC says with 95% certainty that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities have been the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid-20th century.
  3. 3. Africa’s climate is already changing ● African surface temperatures have already increased by 0.5–2ºC over the past 100 years. ● There is insufficient data on rainfall trends, where it exists, it shows rainfall patterns are changing. Change in annual average temperature in Africa, 1901–2012 Change in annual average temperature in Africa, 1901–2012
  4. 4. Climate impacts are already being felt ● Incidence of malaria ● Wheat production and productivity of other crops ● Productivity of fisheries ● Cycles of droughts and floods
  5. 5. Observed impact of climate change in Africa
  6. 6. Further climate change is inevitable in the coming decades ● Regardless of future emissions, we are already committed to a further warming world. ● If the world continues to emit greenhouse gases at current rates, average global temperature could rise by 2.6–4.8ºC by 2100 (highest emissions scenario – business as usual).
  7. 7. Future impacts of global warming Observed and projected global annual average temperature Global risks under increasing levels of climate change
  8. 8. Future climate trends for Africa – overview
  9. 9. North Africa future climate trends
  10. 10. East Africa future climate trends
  11. 11. South Africa future climate trends
  12. 12. West Africa future climate trends
  13. 13. Climate change poses challenges to growth and development in Africa ● Recent economic gains have been in climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture, fisheries. ● Demographic trends will compound the adverse consequences of climate change. ● Eg rapidly growing population will increase competition for freshwater and food, while prolonged drought and high temperatures will reduce crop yields and put pressure on scarce water resources.
  14. 14. Adaptation will bring immediate benefits and reduce the impacts of climate change in Africa Carefully planned adaptation activities make for good development. ‘No regrets’ and ‘low regrets’ measures: ● Increasing access to information ● Improving health services ● Diversifying cropping systems ● Strengthening access to land, credit and other resources especially for poor and marginalised groups ● Improving governance of water and land resources
  15. 15. Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change Compounded stress on water resources facing significant strain from overexploitation and degradation at present and increased demand in the future with drought stress exacerbated in drought-prone regions of Africa (high confidence)
  16. 16. Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change Reduced crop productivity associated with heat and drought stress, with strong adverse effects on regional, national and household livelihood and food security, also given increased pest and disease damage and flood impacts on food system infrastructure (high confidence)
  17. 17. Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change Changes in the incidence and geographic range of vector- and water-borne diseases due to changes in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation, particularly along the edges of their distribution (medium confidence)
  18. 18. Adaptation is fundamentally about risk managemen t “In many cases, we are not prepared for the climate-related risks we already face. Investments in better preparation can pay dividends both in the present and for the future.” – Vicente Barros, IPCC Working Group II Co-Chair
  19. 19. Adaptation experience in Africa is growing Many African countries are working to integrate adaptation into development planning Initiatives in African countries at national government level: ● National Climate Change Response Strategies ● National Adaptation Plans of Action (in Least Developed Countries)
  20. 20. Promoting ambitious global action ● In order to limit global warming to less than 2ºC, total emissions from human activity should not exceed 800–1000 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, to date, human activity has release 500 gigatonnes ● Pledges by world leaders are not enough to limit global warming below 2ºC ● On the current trajectory, parts of Africa will experience 2ºC rise by mid-21st century ● Climate mitigation must be a shared effort
  21. 21. Some low-carbon development options may be less costly in the long run and could offer new economic opportunities for Africa ● African countries can adopt clean, energy efficient technologies and side-step ‘lock in’ to fossil fuel dependent infrastructure ● It is cheaper to invest in low-carbon options now than to lock in to conventional alternatives
  22. 22. Africa stands to benefit from integrated climate adaptation, mitigation and development approaches Many sustainable development pathways combine climate adaptation, mitigation, development options effectively Decentralised, renewable power systems avoid greenhouse gas emissions, dependence on costly and unreliable fossil fuels, more resilient to climate extremes and variability
  23. 23. Africa stands to benefit from integrated approaches Many sustainable development pathways combine climate adaptation, mitigation, development options effectively Agroforestry schemes can allow farmers to generate income and accumulate assets from carbon capture, wood-based energy and improved soil fertility, and can promote resilience through species diversity
  24. 24. International cooperation is vital to avert dangerous climate change and African governments can promote ambitious global action ● Every government must participate in global negotiations toward a collective solution ● Developed countries have committed to mobilising $100 billion/year by 2020 for adaptation and mitigation in developing countries
  25. 25. “International cooperation is required to effectively mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and address other climate change issues … outcomes seen as equitable can lead to more effective cooperation” –IPCC
  26. 26. Download resources including infographics and slides: www.cdkn.org/ar5-toolkit Find the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/ Contact: africa@cdkn.org

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