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Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Working Group III contribution to IPCC Fifth
Assessment...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
There are multiple mitigation pathways
that are likely ...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Emissions and concentrations are expected to continue t...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
These pathways would require substantial emissions redu...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
These pathways would require substantial emissions redu...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
These pathways would require substantial emissions redu...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
These pathways would require substantial emissions redu...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Baseline scenarios suggest rising GHG emissions in all ...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Sys...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation efforts in one sector determine efforts in o...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation requires a major upscaling of low- and zero-...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Scenarios in which all countries of the world begin mit...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
These estimates do not
account for the benefits
from re...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Availability of technology can greatly influence the ch...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Substantial reductions in emissions would result in lar...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying additional mitigation to 2030 will
substantial...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrow...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrow...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrow...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation is estimated to increase the diffic...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation is estimated to increase the diffic...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation is estimated to increase the diffic...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
CLIMATE CHANGE 2014
Mitigation of Climate Change
www.mi...
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Clarke l 20150709_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_herpin

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Clarke l 20150709_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_herpin

  1. 1. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Working Group III contribution to IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Leon Clarke (CLA Chapter 6, LA SYR)
  2. 2. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report There are multiple mitigation pathways that are likely to limit warming to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels. … Implementing such reductions poses substantial technological, economic, social and institutional challenges…
  3. 3. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Emissions and concentrations are expected to continue to rise despite improvements in technology. 3 Based on Figure 6.7 Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios…range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850– 1900 for a median climate response. They range from 2.5°C to 7.8°C when including climate uncertainty (5th to 95th percentile range)
  4. 4. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report These pathways would require substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades and near zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century. ~3°C
  5. 5. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report These pathways would require substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades and near zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century. ~3°C
  6. 6. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report These pathways would require substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades and near zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century. 6 ~3°C Based on Figure 6.7 The 450 ppmv CO2e scenarios are typically more unlikely then likely to remain below 1.5°C this century.
  7. 7. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report These pathways would require substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades and near zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century. 7 ~3°C Based on Figure 6.7 Roughly 40% to 70% reductions below 2010 levels by 2050. Emissions are negative in many scenarios before 2100.
  8. 8. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Baseline scenarios suggest rising GHG emissions in all sectors, except for CO2 emissions in the land‐use sector. 8 Based on Figure TS.17
  9. 9. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Systemic approaches are expected to be most effective. 9 Based on Figure TS.17
  10. 10. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation efforts in one sector determine efforts in others. 10 Based on Figure TS.17
  11. 11. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation requires a major upscaling of low- and zero- carbon energy Total Low-Carbon Energy Supply Baseline Scenarios 550 ppm CO2e Scenarios 450 ppm CO2e Scenarios Note: Includes baseline and idealized policy implementation scenarios. Historical data from IEA (2012a)
  12. 12. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Scenarios in which all countries of the world begin mitigation immediately, in which there is a single global carbon price, and in which all key technologies are available have been used as a cost-effective benchmark for estimating macro-economic mitigation costs
  13. 13. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report These estimates do not account for the benefits from reduced climate change. Both higher and lower estimates have been obtained based on less idealized implementation approaches and less-idealized policy environments
  14. 14. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Availability of technology can greatly influence the challenge of mitigation. 14 Figure 6.24
  15. 15. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Substantial reductions in emissions would result in large changes in investment patterns Change of average annual investment in mitigation scenarios (2010–2029) 450 ppm and 500 ppm scenarios
  16. 16. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Delaying additional mitigation to 2030 will substantially increase the challenges associated with limiting warming over the 21st century to below 2°C relative to pre- industrial levels.
  17. 17. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2°C. 17 „immediate action“
  18. 18. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2°C. 18
  19. 19. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2°C. 19
  20. 20. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Delaying mitigation is estimated to increase the difficulty and narrow the options for limiting warming to 2°C. 20 „immediate action“ „delayed mitigation“
  21. 21. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Delaying mitigation is estimated to increase the difficulty and narrow the options for limiting warming to 2°C. 21
  22. 22. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Delaying mitigation is estimated to increase the difficulty and narrow the options for limiting warming to 2°C. 22 Based on Figures 6.32 and 7.16
  23. 23. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report CLIMATE CHANGE 2014 Mitigation of Climate Change www.mitigation2014.org

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