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Impact of country-level policies on
smallholder farmer adaptation to
climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa
Ephraim Nkonyaa,...
Introduction – landscapes & climate
change adaptation & mitigation
Protected
natural
terrestrial
ecosystems
Greater &
sust...
Landscape – the primary foundation for
climate change adaptation and mitigation
• Food production occurs on land
• Land is...
Strong interlinkages of biomes &
ecosystem services: Example of Land-
water regulating services
Page 4
18%
82%
Cost of los...
Methods, Data and Selection of Study Sites
• We used satellite imagery, focus group discussion
and household survey data
•...
Case studies, East Africa
Case countries, West Africa
Agricultural policies differ across
selected countries
0
1
2
3
0
10
20
30
40
Kenya Uganda Niger Nigeria
Publicexpenditureo...
Country policies
Kenya Uganda Niger Nigeria
Reforestation
programs/tree planting
+++ ++ +++ +
Fertilizer programs ++ +++
A...
Decentralization and number of SLWM
byelaws enacted per community
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
Uganda Nigeria Kenya Niger
SLW...
Case study of Emiginda bush
fires:Emiginda 1990 Classification
Emiginda, 2000
Emiginda, 2005
ISFM and climate-related production
risks
• Yield variance under land management
practices which combine chemical
fertiliz...
Relationship of soil carbon and yield & production risks,
household survey data Uganda
Land management practices that incr...
Change in millet yield variance (30 year period), Mali, DSSAT simulation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
100% crop
residu...
ISFM practices are more sustainable
17
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
All zero Crop residue 100% Manure 1.7tons/ha Manure 5
tons/ha+80kg...
ISFM most profitable, Maize
0
5
10
15
20
25
TRO TR1 TR2 TR4 TR7 TR8 TR10
US$(000),30yeartotalNPV
Kenya Malawi Mali Nigeria...
Returns to fertilizer much greater with
ISFM
194
307
61
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
80kgN/ha 80kgN/ha+5 tons/ha manure % ...
The unholy cross: Inverse relationship
between profit and adoption rate
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
ISFM Fertilizer Organic inputs...
Why low adoption rate of ISFM?
ISFM is labor intensive, requires livestock
to produce and transport organic inputs
• Land management practices using orga...
Extension messages on organic inputs is
low – case of Nigeria
Improved seeds
56%
Inorganic
fertilizer
18%
Agrochemicals
10...
So what can be done to enhance
adaptation to CC?
Policies should be climate change
smart
• Government policies major determinant of
adaptation to climate change
 Policies...
Invest in capacity building of local
institutions for land management
• Natural resource management byelaws are
key to col...
Develop & disseminate climate-
change-smart technologies
• Higher temperatures & more variable
precipitation call for new ...
Enhance capacity of agricultural extension
services to provide ISFM & CC
• Short-term training
• Attending workshops on CC...
Integrated landscape rural
development approaches
• Roads
• Education
• Agricultural extension
• CC & market information s...
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Impact of country-level policies on smallholder farmer adaptation to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa, E. Nkonya

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E. Nkonya (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C, United States of America) at the Our Common Future Under Climate Change conference, July 7-10 in Paris, France.

More at http://www.commonfuture-paris2015.org/

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Impact of country-level policies on smallholder farmer adaptation to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa, E. Nkonya

  1. 1. Impact of country-level policies on smallholder farmer adaptation to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa Ephraim Nkonyaa, Frank Placea, Edward Katoa, & Majaliwa Mwanjololob A International Food Policy Research Institute b Makerere University Integrating Adaptation and Mitigation at the Landscape Scale Paris, July 09, 2015
  2. 2. Introduction – landscapes & climate change adaptation & mitigation Protected natural terrestrial ecosystems Greater & sustainable biodiversity Sustainable cropland management Sustainable grazing lands Policies Land user behavior Markets & institutions
  3. 3. Landscape – the primary foundation for climate change adaptation and mitigation • Food production occurs on land • Land is the water reservoir • Improved land management leads to greater food production, sustainable bioenergy production, carbon sequestration, and cleaner water – e.g. control of soil erosion reduces turbidity and could reduce HEP production costs • Policies are required to provide incentives for land users to use sustainable land and water management (SLWM) practices Page 3
  4. 4. Strong interlinkages of biomes & ecosystem services: Example of Land- water regulating services Page 4 18% 82% Cost of loss of water regulating services as share of global total of cost of land degradation due to LUCC, US$230.761 per year Water regulating services Other losses
  5. 5. Methods, Data and Selection of Study Sites • We used satellite imagery, focus group discussion and household survey data • To understand the influence of policies on land user response to climate change, we selected trans- boundary sites with comparable characteristics • Study sites were drawn from Kenya and Uganda (East Africa) and Niger and Nigeria (West Africa)
  6. 6. Case studies, East Africa
  7. 7. Case countries, West Africa
  8. 8. Agricultural policies differ across selected countries 0 1 2 3 0 10 20 30 40 Kenya Uganda Niger Nigeria PublicexpenditureonR&D as%ofagGDP %GDP Agriculture value added as % of GDP Contribution of livestock to GDP (%) Public expenditure on R&D as % of AgGDP
  9. 9. Country policies Kenya Uganda Niger Nigeria Reforestation programs/tree planting +++ ++ +++ + Fertilizer programs ++ +++ Agricultural R&D +++ + + ++ Irrigation +++ + +++ Local governments + +++ + +++ Land tenure ++ +++ + + NAPA +++ +++ Each country has implemented a unique policy that enhances adaptation to climate change.
  10. 10. Decentralization and number of SLWM byelaws enacted per community 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 Uganda Nigeria Kenya Niger SLWM byelaw/community Score index of overal decentralization Source (decentralization): Ndegwa & Levy, 2004
  11. 11. Case study of Emiginda bush fires:Emiginda 1990 Classification
  12. 12. Emiginda, 2000
  13. 13. Emiginda, 2005
  14. 14. ISFM and climate-related production risks • Yield variance under land management practices which combine chemical fertilizers with organic inputs was lower than those which use either chemical fertilizer or organic inputs only (yield variance). – This suggests ISFM reduces climate change related production risks. – This underscores the crucial role, which ISFM can play in reducing climate change related risks.
  15. 15. Relationship of soil carbon and yield & production risks, household survey data Uganda Land management practices that increase soil carbon reduce production risks & increase crop yield
  16. 16. Change in millet yield variance (30 year period), Mali, DSSAT simulation 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 100% crop residue only Manure 1.7 tons/ha, 50% crop residues 40kgN/ha, manure 1.7tons/ha & 50% crop residue 80kgN/ha, 100% crop residue 80kgN/ha, 5 tons/ha manure, 100% crop residue %changeinStddeviation
  17. 17. ISFM practices are more sustainable 17 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 All zero Crop residue 100% Manure 1.7tons/ha Manure 5 tons/ha+80kgN/ha Yiledchange(tons/ha) Millet yield change after 30 years, Mali
  18. 18. ISFM most profitable, Maize 0 5 10 15 20 25 TRO TR1 TR2 TR4 TR7 TR8 TR10 US$(000),30yeartotalNPV Kenya Malawi Mali Nigeria Uganda No any input more fertilizer+manure+crop residues TR0 = No any input or crop residue TR1 = crop residues only TR2 = crop residues+ manure 5 tons/ha TR4= Crop residues+ 5 tons manure/ha+40kgN/ha TR7= Crop residues+5 tons manure+80 kgN/ha TR8= 80kgN/ha, no crop residues or manure TR10=Crop residues+10 tons manure/ha+80kgN/ha
  19. 19. Returns to fertilizer much greater with ISFM 194 307 61 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 80kgN/ha 80kgN/ha+5 tons/ha manure % change AverageNPV/year(US$/ha),%
  20. 20. The unholy cross: Inverse relationship between profit and adoption rate 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 ISFM Fertilizer Organic inputs Nothing Adoptionrate(%);Profit (US$/ha/year) Average adoption rate & returns of land management practices, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Niger & Tanzania Adoption rate (%) Profit (US$/ha/year)
  21. 21. Why low adoption rate of ISFM?
  22. 22. ISFM is labor intensive, requires livestock to produce and transport organic inputs • Land management practices using organic inputs have high labor intensity – Labor accounts for 50% of the production cost of combining chemical fertilizer and organic inputs • Manure production & other organic inputs need to be produced and transported to crop plots
  23. 23. Extension messages on organic inputs is low – case of Nigeria Improved seeds 56% Inorganic fertilizer 18% Agrochemicals 10% Planting 10% Organic fertilizer (1%) Note: No advisory Services on CC Send back to School AEA
  24. 24. So what can be done to enhance adaptation to CC?
  25. 25. Policies should be climate change smart • Government policies major determinant of adaptation to climate change  Policies should be CC-smart  Most countries in SSA are still not well aligned to CC, even though almost all countries have NAPA  Even for countries with NAPA, commensurate investment has not been done to back them (Nakhooda et al 2011).
  26. 26. Invest in capacity building of local institutions for land management • Natural resource management byelaws are key to collective adaptation to climate change. The example of Emiginda in Nigeria showed reduced bush burning after byelaws were effectively enforced
  27. 27. Develop & disseminate climate- change-smart technologies • Higher temperatures & more variable precipitation call for new crop varieties & livestock breeds adapted to these changes • Advisory services on climate change still weak. Lack of information on how to adapt to climate change was one of the constraints of adaptation
  28. 28. Enhance capacity of agricultural extension services to provide ISFM & CC • Short-term training • Attending workshops on CC and ISFM • Training programs in colleges & universities need to be revised to reflect new knowledge
  29. 29. Integrated landscape rural development approaches • Roads • Education • Agricultural extension • CC & market information services • Local government institutions  All these need an integrated approach cutting across ministries, departments & programs

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